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The 2011 and 2018 survey results are not directly comparable as the 2011 RoC (IMF, 2012a) used interviews of EDs, while the 2018 RoC used written questionnaires.
Programs supported by GRA resources must be designed to resolve the member’s BOP problem during the program period. More specifically, the policy measures that need to be taken to resolve a member’s BOP need should be undertaken during the program period. Such policies should be implemented in a manner that will lead to a strengthening of the member’s BoP before repurchases begin.
A “drawing arrangement” here refers to a case where a member actually made a drawing.
This means that lower access programs include annualized access below 50 percent of quota for programs approved before January 2016 (when the quota reform was completed) and 33.75 percent after that.
Under the LIC-DSF, IMF country teams are required to report an updated external public debt sustainability assessment every year.
Different from the GRA methodology, performance is measured relative to program design (except for the DSF rating) rather than relative to past outcomes. This approach is used to avoid penalizing PRGT countries experiencing significant historic volatility of growth, inflation, and budget-related indicators.
Given different emphasis on specific PRGT-mandated objectives in various programs, progress on at least three indicators is deemed sufficient for full program success.
The experience discussed in this section predates the adoption of revisions to the Fund’s EA policy in 2016.
The CPIA score is a proxy for policy and institutional quality based on expert judgment consisting of four dimensions: (i) economic management; (ii) structural policies; (iii) policies for social inclusion and equity; and (iv) public sector management and institutions. The index, which is provided by the World Bank, is also used by the IMF and the World Bank to identify fragile states.
LICs in fragile situations mostly used the ECF given its focus on structural reforms and longer program duration, allowing for time to implement reforms.
The decline in 2014 reflects a drop in the number of Fund-supported programs in fragile states (from 10 in 2012 to 2 in 2013 and 2014), which translated into less TA delivery.
Suriname (SBA 2016) is excluded from the analysis due to the early termination of the program before completing the first review. Seychelles (2017 PCI) is excluded, as the program is in its initial stages and reviews assessed by the Executive Board fall beyond the end-2017 cutoff date for the 2018 RoC period.
For more details on the potential use of state-contingent debt instruments for small open economies subject to large exogenous shocks, such as natural disasters and commodity prices shocks, see IMF (2017b).
Jointly with the Bank, comprehensive Climate Change Policy Assessments (on a pilot-basis) have been conducted for Belize (2018), Seychelles (2017) and St. Lucia (2018). The CCPA for Seychelles informed SBs under the ongoing PCI program, approved in December 2017.
For more details, please refer to Small States’ Resilience to Natural Disasters and Climate Change—Role for the IMF (IMF 2016). Ongoing work on Building Resilience in Countries Vulnerable to Large Natural Disasters considers the role
For this to be true, there should be no systematic forecast errors of the size of domestic adjustments. As noted in the main paper, the size of adjustments was close to planned, as also observed by Blanchard and Leigh (2013).
This probit model was developed by staff for internal purposes to provide a probabilistic assessment of debt distress for a MAC seeking IMF support. New models are being developed in the context of the ongoing MAC DSA Review.
The choice of the 80th percentile for the high probability threshold is for the purposes of this analysis. The results are reasonably robust to alternative thresholds.
End-program for ongoing programs refers to the latest data point.
Leamer (1978) discusses the use of Bayesian methods to select econometric models. Raftery and others (1997) introduces the Bayesian Model Averaging as an alternative approach to hypothesis testing and model selection in social sciences. Sala-i-Martin et al. (2004) first applied the Bayesian Model Averaging methodology to growth regressions.