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IMF POLICY PAPER

THE MEDIUM-TERM DEBT MANAGEMENT STRATEGY: AN ASSESSMENT OF RECENT CAPACITY BUILDING

July 2017

IMF staff regularly produces papers proposing new IMF policies, exploring options for reform, or reviewing existing IMF policies and operations. The following documents have been released and are included in this package:

  • A Press Release summarizing the views of the Executive Board as expressed during its July 10, 2017 consideration of the staff report.

  • The Staff Report, prepared by IMF staff and completed on June 9, 2017 for the Executive Board’s consideration on July 10, 2017.

  • A Staff Supplement.

The IMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information and premature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports and other documents.

Electronic copies of IMF Policy Papers are available to the public from http://www.imf.org/external/pp/ppindex.aspx

International Monetary Fund

Washington, D.C.

Front Matter Page

THE MEDIUM-TERM DEBT MANAGEMENT STRATEGY: AN ASSESSMENT OF RECENT CAPACITY BUILDING

June 9, 2017

Executive Summary

This report to the Boards of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) is the third in a series regarding the evolution of the Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS) framework and the associated capacity building efforts. In 2007 the two Boards endorsed the development of the MTDS and ancillary tools, and mandated a program of technical assistance to help countries build capacity in this area. This endorsement and mandate reflect a recognition that sound debt management is critical both to macroeconomic stability and to the development and functioning of the financial sector.

The IMF and the WB have collaborated to deliver a large volume of MTDS-based technical assistance to numerous, diverse countries, with a focus on middle- and lower-income countries. Donors have recognized the importance of this work and have been generous in their support. The assistance has taken many forms, including country visits by staff and experts, the delivery of regional training events, and the organization of forums. As documented here, modes of delivery have evolved, with greater emphasis on tailoring to country circumstances, ownership, and coordination within and across agencies in the recipient countries.

The report and accompanying annexes describe how capacity building on MTDS has been adapted to keep abreast of country needs. An increasing number of countries have market access (such as through the issuance of Eurobonds or local currency bonds), and face the potential realization of contingent claims, which requires that the MTDS framework consider additional risk factors; more diverse scenarios and market risk metrics; and a wider range of strategies. In many countries, effective capacity building in MTDS was complemented by efforts to strengthen institutions and governance arrangements; debt recording; and government cash management. Linkages with the formulation of annual borrowing plans (ABP) and debt sustainability analysis (DSA) have been strengthened, but more work is needed. Providing a sustained stream of support, rather than one-off missions, often produced better results. Country ownership, often reflected in commitments under IMF- or WB-supported programs, has proven critical to the sustained enhancement of debt management capacity.

The value and effectiveness of these capacity building efforts are documented in the report using qualitative and quantitative metrics. The responses from national authorities to a questionnaire on their experience with MTDS technical assistance and the evolution of various quantitative indicators suggest that there were benefits and these were generally sustained. In particular, the majority of countries that had received technical assistance indicated that it helped them to introduce a structured and coherent approach to designing a debt management strategy (DMS) and raise awareness of risks among senior officials and broader stakeholders. Countries also appreciated advice on institutional and governance reforms and integrating debt management into macroeconomic policy formulation and implementation. The observations are supported by case studies detailing how technical assistance was successfully tailored to country needs. It is shown that many recipient countries are now better able to integrate debt management into overall economic policy formulation and adapt their debt management strategies to changing countries’ circumstances. For some, risk exposure indicators have improved even as debt levels have increased.

Looking forward, the report suggests that the MTDS framework and modes of delivery should continue to be updated and refined, while maintaining core functions. Some countries will need more sophisticated techniques both to analyze cost-risk trade-offs and to implement their chosen strategy. Others are still in the process of building a solid foundation for debt management. In addition to hands-on trainings, greater use of on-line learning may further enhance effectiveness and efficiency. Building institutional capacity in debt management is a long-term endeavor, often times requiring a more “programmatic” approach, and sustained client ownership. Such an approach would involve diagnosis followed by an actionable reform plan supported by tailored technical assistance.

The Boards are asked for their views on priorities in a strategy for future development of capacity building in this area, and how best to ensure that improvements in debt management are sustained.

Approved By

Peter Dattels (IMF) and Jan Walliser (WB)

Prepared by Apostolos Apostolou, Kay Chung, Tadeusz Galeza, Thordur Jonasson, Michael Papaioannou, Miriam Tamene, and Eriko Togo (Monetary and Capital Markets Department, IMF), and Emre Balibek, Sebastian Essl, Lars Jessen, and Antonio Velandia (WB) in consultation with other departments. The work was supervised by Daniel Hardy (IMF), and Abha Prasad and Coskun Cangoz (WB).

Contents

  • Glossary

  • INTRODUCTION

  • TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE IN DEVELOPING MTDS

  • A. Resources and Delivery

  • B. Technical Assistance Recommendations and Themes

  • EFFECTIVENESS

  • A. Assessing Effectiveness

  • B. Enhancing Effectiveness

  • CONCLUSIONS

  • ISSUES FOR DISCUSSION

  • BOXES

  • 1. Donor Funding

  • 2. Complementary Technical Assistance

  • FIGURES

  • 1. Evolution of Public Debt, 2007–2020

  • 2. Commodity Prices Indices, 2007–2017

  • 3. Countries’ Credit Rating Heat Map, 2007 versus 2016

  • 4. Selected Countries: Eurobond Spreads

  • 5. Changes in DeMPA Scores

  • 6. Debt Management Performance and Support

  • TABLES

  • 1. Delivery of Bilateral Technical Assistance on the MTDS Framework (2008–2016)

  • 2. MTDS and Debt Management Regional Training Coverage (2008–2016)

  • 3. Changes in DeMPA Detailed Scores

Glossary

ABP

Annual Borrowing Plan

AT

Analytical Tool

DeMPA

Debt Management Performance Assessment

DMO

Debt Management Office

DMS

Debt Management Strategy

DPI

Debt management performance indicator

DPO

Development Policy Loan

DSA

Debt Sustainability Analysis

EBRD

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development

EMDC

Emerging Market Developing Country

IDA

International Development Association

IMF

International Monetary Fund

LCBM

Local Currency Bond Markets

LIC-DSF

Low Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework

LIDC

Low Income Developing Country

MAC DSA

Market Access Countries Debt Sustainability Analysis

MEFMI

Macroeconomic and Financial Management Institute of Eastern and Southern Africa

MOOC

Massive Open Online Courses

MTDS

Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy

NCBP

Non-Concessional Borrowing Policy

OECD

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

PPP

Public-private partnership

PRGT

Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust

SOE

State-owned enterprise

WB

World Bank

Front Matter Page

THE MEDIUM-TERM DEBT MANAGEMENT STRATEGY: AN ASSESSMENT OF RECENT CAPACITY BUILDING—ANNEXES

June 9, 2017

Approved By

Peter Dattels (IMF) and Jan Walliser (WB)

Prepared by Apostolos Apostolou, Tadeusz Galeza, Thordur Jonasson, Michael Papaioannou, Miriam Tamene, Eriko Togo (Monetary and Capital Markets Department, IMF), and Emre Balibek, Sebastian Essl, Lars Jessen, and Antonio Velandia (WB) in consultation with other departments. The work was supervised by Daniel Hardy (IMF), and Abha Prasad and Coskun Cangoz (WB).

Contents

  • Glossary

  • ANNEXES

  • I. The Role of Debt Management in Economic Policy Frameworks and the Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy Framework

  • II. Past MTDS Board Papers

  • III. DeMPA Framework and Results

  • IV. Detailed Questionnaire Results

  • V. Case Studies

Glossary

ABP

Annual Borrowing Plan

AT

Analytical Tool

BiH

Bosnia and Herzegovina

DeMPA

Debt Management Performance Assessment

DMO

Debt Management Office

DMS

Debt Management Strategy

DPI

Debt management performance indicator

DSA

Debt Sustainability Analysis

EMDC

Emerging Market Developing Country

FBiH

Federation of BiH

IDA

International Development Association

IMF

International Monetary Fund

LIDC

Low Income Developing Country

MoF

Ministry of Finance

MTDS

Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy

PDD

Public Debt Department

RS

Republika Srpska

SOE

State-owned enterprise

TA

Technical assistance

WB

World Bank

Front Matter Page

Press Release No. 17/304

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

July 28, 2017

International Monetary Fund

Washington, D.C. 20431 USA

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