Balance Sheet Analysis in Fund Surveillance - Reference Note

This note serves as a reference for balance sheet analysis, which should be read in conjunction with the IMF board paper on Balance Sheet Analysis in Fund Surveillance. It provides a: compendium of good examples of balance sheet analysis from both bilateral and multilateral surveillance, covering a variety of topics; full listing of available balance sheet related macro datasets, including their relevance for surveillance, remaining limitations, and remedial measures being undertaken; summary of data availability for each Fund member; compilation of all the tools for balance sheet analysis developed by the Fund over the last decade; and toolkit featuring some new empirical applications that could help deepen balance sheet analysis in surveillance. These include illustrations of how to construct and use BSA matrices, general equilibrium and reduced form approaches, as well as tools to analyze sectoral vulnerabilities using micro data.

Abstract

This note serves as a reference for balance sheet analysis, which should be read in conjunction with the IMF board paper on Balance Sheet Analysis in Fund Surveillance. It provides a: compendium of good examples of balance sheet analysis from both bilateral and multilateral surveillance, covering a variety of topics; full listing of available balance sheet related macro datasets, including their relevance for surveillance, remaining limitations, and remedial measures being undertaken; summary of data availability for each Fund member; compilation of all the tools for balance sheet analysis developed by the Fund over the last decade; and toolkit featuring some new empirical applications that could help deepen balance sheet analysis in surveillance. These include illustrations of how to construct and use BSA matrices, general equilibrium and reduced form approaches, as well as tools to analyze sectoral vulnerabilities using micro data.

Balance Sheet Analysis in Fund Multilateral Products

Table 1.

Balance Sheet Analysis in the Global Financial Stability Report

(since 2004)

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Table 2.

Balance Sheet Analysis in the World Economic Outlook Report

(since 2004)

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Good Examples of Balance Sheet Analysis in Bilateral Surveillance

Table 3.

Good Examples of Balance Sheet Analysis in Bilateral Surveillance

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Balance Sheet Data: Key Sources and Initiatives

A. Major Data Initiatives1

1. In response to the financial crises of the mid-1990s, the IMF launched the Data Standards Initiatives (DSI) to enhance member countries’ data transparency and promote the development of sound statistical systems. Under the DSI, the IMF Executive Board established the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) in 1996 to provide guidance to countries that have or seek access to capital markets, and the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) in 1997 to provide a framework for countries to work toward disseminating comprehensive and reliable data and, eventually, meet SDDS requirements. In February 2012, the Board also approved the SDDS Plus in support of domestic and international financial stability analysis.

  • The GDDS helps countries to formulate comprehensive, but prioritized, plans for improvements in four dimensions: data coverage, periodicity and timeliness; data quality; data integrity; and access to data by the public. Countries commit to adopt the GDDS as a framework for their national systems of economic, financial, and socio-demographic data, to designate a country coordinator to interface with the IMF, and to document their statistical practices. Its recommendations are generally less demanding than the corresponding requirements of the SDDS.

  • In May 2015, the IMF Executive Board approved the following enhancements to the GDDS (now e-GDDS) in four key areas; (i) align the e-GDDS data categories with those required for IMF surveillance activities; (ii) promote a standardized format for data publication using modern tools; (iii) leverage the IMF’s policy dialogue with member countries to elevate statistical issues to the level of policymakers; and (iv) introduce annual monitoring of countries’ progress in statistical development. The e-GDDS establishes three thresholds to track progress in countries’ capacity to publish the specified data categories. This would allow a better assessment of capacity development needs and prioritization of technical assistance by the IMF and donors.

  • The SDDS identifies the same four dimensions of data dissemination as the GDDS, and for each dimension prescribes two to four monitorable elements—good practices that can be observed, or monitored, by users of statistics. Subscription to the SDDS is voluntary, but carries a commitment to observe the standard and to provide information to the IMF about dissemination practices. When the SDDS was established in March 1996, the IMF’s Executive Board emphasized that its implementation should be flexible and that the standard should evolve over time. Since that time the Board has reviewed the SDDS eight times, with modifications since the Seventh Review aimed at broadening financial indicators in response to the financial crisis.

  • The SDDS Plus was established in October 2012 in support of domestic and international financial stability analysis, focusing on economies with systematically important financial sectors.

  • The Data Gaps initiative (DGI) was created when, in response to the financial crisis, the G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Working Group #2 called on the IMF and the Financial Stability Forum (the predecessor of the FSB) “to explore gaps and provide appropriate proposals for strengthening data collection.” The IMF and FSB subsequently agreed on a set of recommendations with G-20 economies to better capture the build-up of risk in the financial sector, improve data on international financial network connections, monitor the vulnerability of domestic economies to shocks, and communicate official statistics.

Key Balance Sheet Related Macro Datasets

Table 4.

Key Balance Sheet Related Macro Datasets

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Balance Sheet Data—Current2 3 Availability by Economy

Table 5.

Advanced Economies—Current Data Availability

(All data are as reported officially to disseminated by the IMF, the World Bank, the BIS, and the OECD)

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Table 6.

Emerging Market and Developing Economies (excluding Low-Income Countries)—Current Data Availability

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Table 7.

Low-Income Countries: Frontier Markets—Current Data Availability

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Table 8.

Low-Income Countries: Others—Current Data Availability

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Sectoral Accounts: 1 = partial annual tables only; 2 = complete annual tables only; 3 = complete annual tables and partial quarterly tables; 4 = complete annual and quarterly tables.Monetary and Financial Statistics (MFS): 1 = Non-SRF Monetary Statistics; 2 = Central Bank and Other Depository Corporations; 3 = Central Bank, Other Depository Corporations, and Other Financial Corporations.International investment Position (IIP): 1 = annual data; 2 = quarterly data.CPIS (December 2013 data): 1 = core and portfolio investment assets tables; 2 = core and sector of holder or currency of denomination tables; 3 = core, currency of denomination, and sector of holder tables; 4 = core, currency of denomination, sector of holder, and other tables.CDIS (December 2013 data): 1 = two or less tables, mainly on inward investment; 2 = three inward investment tables; 3 = inward and outward investment tables.External Debt (QEDS 2014Q4 data): 1 = GDDS tables; 2 = GDDS tables, including Table 6, which is similar to the core SDDS Table 1; 3 = SDDS tables.Government Finance sector (GFS and PSDS): 1 = data on liabilities (by instrument) for the budgetary central government; 2 = annual GFS central government financial balance sheet with similar coverage of liabilities in PSDS for select countries; 3 = annual GFS financial balance sheets for the general and central government, no QGFS; PSDS reporting for select countries; 4 = annual GFS financial balance sheet data for the general government sector plus quarterly general government debt liabilities data in PSDS for select countries; 5 = annual and quarterly financial balance sheet data for the general government sector with corresponding quarterly debt liabilities data from PSDS.BIS IBS (data on international banking activity): 1 = locational banking statistics; 2 = locational and consolidated banking statistics.Financial Soundness Indicators (FSIs): 1 = only core indicators; 2 = core and encouraged indicators.