|I. Integrating & Deepening Risk & Spillover Analysis|
|Risks & Spillovers: Second Generation Reforms|
|Integrating Bilateral and Multilateral Surveillance|
The topics for the analytical chapters of the flagships will reflect other departments’ views.
The flagship authors will give tailored presentations to area departments, summarizing the key flagship messages (including the analytical chapters) and highlighting the implications of global risks for different country groupings (depending on their level of development).
REOs will discuss the implications of global risks and spillovers for their regions/countries.
The World Economic Outlook (WEO) will summarize the key global risks highlighted in the Global Risk Assessment Matrix (G-RAM).
Staff will issue the G-RAM to the Board for information on a quarterly basis.
Article IV consultations for economies whose policies are likely to have systemic spillovers will include greater quantification of the impact of outward spillovers and spillbacks.
|Deeper Risk Analysis|
Country teams will use an eclectic approach in risk and spillover analysis, applying a range of specialized analytical techniques where needed.
Through focused training, the Institute for Capacity Development (ICD) will support deepening risk and spillover analysis.
Article IV staff reports will include an alternative quantified risk scenario for countries where one or a combination of risks (external or domestic) could have a material impact on the economic outlook. Alternative scenarios will be prepared for a first wave of 20 countries.
To support alternative quantified risk scenarios for global risks, the WEO team will prepare alternative global assumptions for risks identified in the G-RAM.
|Balance Sheet Analysis|
Interdepartmental task force to develop the dataset, template, and guidance for country teams.
Country teams to deepen analysis with authorities and identify relevant data gaps. Where possible and relevant, Article IV reports will include matrices showing assets and liabilities, their maturity and currency composition, for each sector.
Identify and implement 5 pilot cases for balance sheet analysis in Article IV consultations, one for each area department
SPR to expand external DSA to assess shocks to external flows.
Fund staff will work with G20 members to develop plans for a second phase of the G-20 Data Gaps Initiative starting in 2016.
Over the medium term, the staff will intensify efforts to develop a global flow of funds at least for the largest global economies.
|External Sector Assessment|
Extend EBA-lite to non-EBA countries with data availability.
Develop an EBA-lite type external sector assessment methodology for low-income countries.
A paper describing the EBA-lite methodology plus the dataset and programs underpinning the EBA-lite results will be made publicly available by end-2015.
Article IV staff reports for all countries where the EBA or EBA-lite methodology is applied to discuss the contribution of domestic policies to external imbalances and use these results in relevant policy discussions.
Identify themes for countries from a diverse range of regions and income groups, and provide inter-departmental support to develop and reflect this analysis in forthcoming Article IV consultations.
Increased efforts to disseminate user-friendly toolkits.
Develop analytical frameworks for macrofinancial analysis, drawing on a wide range of perspectives.
Develop a macrofinancial training program.
Share good practice examples through effective knowledge management.
Stepped-up and focused review to help strengthen macrofinancial analysis and advice in Article IV staff reports, including on macroprudential policies.
|II. More Tailored & Expert Advice|
|More tailored policy advice|
Undertake analytic work on the basis for calculating and using structural fiscal balance estimates.
Improve the measurement of potential output with due regard to the operational and technical constraints in this area.
Article IV staff reports to specify a fiscal anchor as appropriate for each country.
Article IV staff reports should identify structural issues critical to macroeconomic developments and risks, and analyze their macroeconomic implications. Where these structural issues are within the Fund’s core expertise, staff reports should also offer policy advice.
Collaborate with other expert agencies in structural areas where the Fund does not have expertise. Establish an interdepartmental task force to help identify priority areas, and develop working links with relevant international agencies and institutions.
Identify and strategically invest in strengthening institutional capacity in certain aspects of labor market policies (around three to four) where members’ needs are greatest. Where sufficient demand, ICD could develop training in collaboration with relevant functional departments.
|More Cohesive and Expert policy advice|
Article IV staff reports should explicitly discuss the policy mix. Staff is encouraged to structure reports around economic goals and themes (rather than by sector).
Where requested by area departments, FAD and MCM will ensure participation in the review process and missions to highly vulnerable countries flagged in the vulnerability exercises.
Country desks will participate more systematically in critical policy-related TA missions.
Establish a small Knowledge Management (KM) Unit, reporting to Management, to help design, coordinate, and communicate the Fund’s knowledge sharing activities.
Include key KM program goals in departmental accountability frameworks.
Implement KM program, including more consistent document tagging with thematic and other metadata to ensure searchability, and consolidate topical materials to improve accessibility.
Training, incentives, and governance to ensure that new KM business practices are followed.
Interdepartmental working group to identify 5–10 priority policy areas where additional steps to document country experience would have high value.
Establish a repository of cross-country materials, with a good start planned for FY16.
Article IV teams strongly encouraged to include cross-country policy lessons in policy notes.
Make the Fund’s expertise more directly available to members through IMF.org, and implement a new web content management system in FY16.
|III. Achieving Greater Impact|
|Client-focused Communication and Dialogue|
Country teams will engage with member countries on a more continuous basis, and seek opportunities for informal discussions, including through staff visits and private workshops.
Heads of area departments to monitor the quality of engagement and policy dialogue through targeted surveys and informal feedback mechanisms, and share the results with management.
Expand discussion of past policy advice in Article IV reports to highlight changes in staff advice and, where relevant, the implementation of different policies by country authorities.
Article IV consultation policy notes to include the key communication messages for outreach.
Strengthen the clarity and coherence of multilateral surveillance messages (including summarizing the messages of the multilateral products in the GPA). Incorporate key messages from the [forthcoming] Spillover Report and [Pilot] ESR in WEO/GFSR.
Guidance note to clarify Fund’s approach to evenhandedness based on inputs. Create an interdepartmental working group to set principles for an evenhanded approach to surveillance.
Create an email mailbox for Executive Directors to report evenhandedness concerns.
Management to report to the Executive Board on concerns raised and, where necessary, plans to address specific concerns.
|IV. Implementation and Monitoring|
Identify and disseminate best practices in Article IV staff reports on 10 TSR priority areas.
Report on interim assessment of TSR implementation (due early 2017)
|LEGEND: Action implemented Good progress Some progress Little progress Not started|
|It is too early to assess items marked as “…” as these relate to how recommendations are reflected in surveillance.|