Front Matter Page
Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries
Gulf Cooperation Council
Annual Meeting of Ministers of Finance and Central Bank Governors
October 5–6, 2012
Saudi Arabia
Prepared by Staff of the International Monetary Fund*
The views expressed herein are those of the authors and should not be reported as or attributed to the International Monetary Fund, its Executive Board, or the governments of any of its member countries.
Contents
Executive Summary
I. International Context
II. Developments in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region
III. Developments in GCC Countries
IV. Spillover Risks from Europe and a Global Slowdown
A. Trade Linkages and Exposure to Europe
B. Financial Links and Exposure to Global and European Banks
C. Other Potential Spillover Channels
V. Policy Challenges
Tables
1. GCC Financial Soundness Indicators
2. GCC Selected Economic Indicators, 2007–13
Figures
1. Recent Economic Indicators, 2007–12
2. Commodity Price Indices, 2010–12
3. Official Financing Disbursed to Arab Countries in Transition, Jan. 2011–Jul. 2012
4. GCC Countries: Recent Economic Developments
5. Break-even Oil Prices, 2012
6. Brent Oil Price Prospects, 2007–15
7. Reliance on Hydrocarbon Export Revenues, 2011
8. Projections and Downside Oil Price Scenario
9. Foreign Bank Claims on GCC Countries, 2012:Q1
10. Foreign Bank Liabilities to GCC Countries, 2012:Q1
11. Commercial Banks’ Foreign Liabilities as a Share of Total Liabilities, 2012
12. Funding from European Banks, 2012:Q1
13. Foreign Bank Liabilities and Claims, 2003–12
14. Retrenchment of European Banks from the GCC, 2011:Q1–2012:Q1
15. Stock of Foreign Direct Investment in GCC Countries, 2011
16. Average Inflows of Foreign Direct Investment in GCC Countries, 2005–11