Statement by the Managing Director on the Work Program of the Executive Board - Executive Board Meeting - May 24, 2010

This report by the external panel of experts (“the panel”) examines the effectiveness and appropriateness of the safeguards policy over the ten years since the inception of the policy, and most particularly in the five years since its last review. Furthermore, the panel, drawing on its research and experience, aims to establish a course for the Executive Board to consider that would help the safeguards policy continually improve, adapt to changing world conditions, and remain viable and relevant for the next decade. In gathering data to form its opinion, the panel (i) consulted with stakeholders in the policy (including central bank authorities, IMF Executive Directors’ offices, Fund and World Bank staff, and international audit firms), (ii) examined safeguards and other Fund-specific documents, and (iii) researched international reference materials.

Abstract

This report by the external panel of experts (“the panel”) examines the effectiveness and appropriateness of the safeguards policy over the ten years since the inception of the policy, and most particularly in the five years since its last review. Furthermore, the panel, drawing on its research and experience, aims to establish a course for the Executive Board to consider that would help the safeguards policy continually improve, adapt to changing world conditions, and remain viable and relevant for the next decade. In gathering data to form its opinion, the panel (i) consulted with stakeholders in the policy (including central bank authorities, IMF Executive Directors’ offices, Fund and World Bank staff, and international audit firms), (ii) examined safeguards and other Fund-specific documents, and (iii) researched international reference materials.

1. Overview. Recent events make clear that the global economy remains vulnerable, and that important work remains to be done to secure the recovery and prevent future crises. We must adapt to new challenges and ensure that the institution is equipped with the right tools to assess pressing risks to global stability and, when crisis prevention efforts are not enough, with the right instruments to restore confidence. Just as modernizing the Fund’s surveillance and financing mandates is essential to improving effectiveness, quota and governance reforms are essential to legitimacy. We have clear guidance from the IMFC to complete the quota review before January 2011, in line with the parameters agreed in Istanbul. Given where we currently are on the quota discussion, as well as on a host of related governance and mandate reforms, this is a highly ambitious agenda, requiring us to summon the spirit of collaboration that helped us mount an effective response to the first stage of the crisis.

2. Work flow. Our workload remains intense and requires prioritization. The calendar outlined in Tables 1A, 1B, and 1C has been structured to bring forward work on strategic priorities.

Table 1A.

Spring 2010 Work Progam Listing -- Policy Items to be Taken up by the Executive Board Before the 2010 Annual Meetings

(by Section Heading)

article image
article image
article image
Note: Listed dates are current projections. Periodic reports and Board calendar announcements will provide updated scheduling information.
Table 1B.

Spring 2010 Work Progam Listing -- Policy Items to be Taken up by the Executive Board Before the 2010 Annual Meetings

(BY DATE)

article image
article image
article image
article image
Note: Listed dates are current projections. Periodic reports and Board calendar announcements will provide updated scheduling information.
Table 1C.

Spring 2010 Work Program -- Items to be Taken up After The 2010 Annual Meetings

article image
article image
article image
Note: Listed dates are current projections. Periodic reports and Board calendar announcements will provide updated scheduling information.

I. Securing a Stronger, More Sustainable Global Economy

3. Global analysis and policy dialogue. Continued IMF leadership in global crisis response and policy debates requires us to tackle current and sometimes controversial issues with rigor and balance.

  • Understanding global developments. The quarterly updates and fall editions of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) and Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) will provide up-to-date analysis of global economic and financial conditions, including cross-country spillovers, and discuss appropriate policy responses. Also, the WEO will consider the impact of fiscal consolidation on growth in advanced economies as well as the post-crisis dynamics of trade, while the fall Global Financial Stability Report will focus on sovereign risks and regulatory reform. Implementing Fiscal Exit Strategy: A Progress Report will cover issues relevant to these discussions. The Fund will continue to support the G-20 Mutual Assessment Process, helping to guide members toward strong, sustainable, and balanced growth.

  • Anticipating future vulnerabilities. We will continue to refine our ability to identify vulnerabilities in individual countries and the potential systemic impacts, in particular by improving data collection. Addressing Data Issues in the Aftermath of the Crisis will describe ongoing work on data gaps and data standards in an informal Board briefing in July. An informal Board seminar is planned after the summer recess to discuss EWE – Methodological Aspects and an update on VEE Methodology.

  • Lessons from crisis response. A Board update, Review of Crisis Programs 2.0, is scheduled for end-May. In June, How did Emerging Markets (EMs) Cope with the Crisis will review the performance of EMs during the crisis and factors that have influenced the pace and timing of their recovery. Also in June, Central Banking Lessons from the Crisis will discuss the lessons of the crisis for central banks, focusing on financial stability. Global Financial Crisis: Use of Intervention and Resolution Tools, will describe responses to the recent crisis, comparisons with earlier crises, and lessons.

  • Assessing Emerging Market spillovers. An informal Board seminar in September will present work on the increasing role of dynamic EMs in the global economy, covering real and financial linkages among EMs as well as between EMs and low-income countries (LICs). The common macroeconomic policy challenges facing EMs will be covered, as will the policy challenges facing LICs in the context of expanding economic relations with EMs and possible global rebalancing.

4. Long-run fiscal sustainability. Fund analysis and policy advice will support members’ commitment to ensure sustainable public finances and address sovereign debt risks, taking individual country circumstances into account. With this in mind, two formal Board seminars are planned toward the end of the year: Macro-Fiscal Implications of Healthcare Reform in Emerging and Advanced Countries (November); and Revenue Mobilization in Developing Countries (December).

5. Financial regulatory architecture. Stronger global financial regulation and supervision are needed to avoid a repeat of the recent crisis and requires a collaborative and consistent approach to avoid distortions and support economic recovery. An informal Board seminar in September will evaluate Implications of Financial Regulatory Initiatives across countries. The Fund is also preparing papers for formal Board discussions on the topic of cross-border resolution of insolvent banks, in line with the G-20 request. In addition, the Board will have the opportunity to discuss our further work on developing options for how the financial sector can make a fair and substantial contribution to cover the burden of extraordinary government support, while reducing excessive risk-taking.

6. Low income countries: prospects and challenges. The Fund will continue to bolster its support and sharpen its policy advice for LICs. In September we will issue Exit Strategies and Post-Crisis Policies in Low-Income Countries. An informal Board seminar, Managing Volatility: Towards a Framework for Assessing Vulnerabilities in Low-Income Countries, is planned after the Annual Meetings and will outline a framework for analyzing how shocks translate into vulnerabilities in various sectors in LICs.

II. Advancing Quota, Governance, and Mandate Reforms

7. Quotas and governance. Substantial work is needed to complete the quota review before January 2011, in line with the parameters agreed in Istanbul, and deliver on other governance reforms as called for by the IMFC. The 14th General Review of Quotas—Further Considerations, is tentatively scheduled for Board discussion in early July and follows the provision, early in June, of the final dataset for the quota review. This will lay the groundwork for follow-up work, including on the size of Fund, starting with a meeting shortly after the summer recess. In parallel, a Board paper on Governance Reform will identify possible avenues to advance reforms across the range of topics highlighted by the IMFC, for Board discussion in July. Depending on progress, consideration could be given to a follow-up paper that narrows the elements of a reform package. At any rate, I propose to issue a Report to the IMFC on Governance and Quota Reform ahead of the Annual Meetings on the state of play.

8. Mandate. Report to the IMFC: the Fund’s Mandate will make recommendations and review steps taken to improve the focus and traction of Fund surveillance; enhance crisis prevention; improve the global financial safety net; and study policy options to promote stability and the proper functioning of the international monetary system (IMS). Ahead of this report, for Board discussion in September, it is expected that the Board will have discussed underlying issues in surveillance, lending, and stability of IMS, as noted below.

9. Surveillance. Boosting the quality and traction of Fund surveillance remains central to the ongoing Mandate review. We must sharpen the focus of surveillance on systemic risks and spillovers, including those related to macro-financial issues, by enhancing both multilateral and bilateral surveillance.

  • Review of the Fund’s Mandate: Follow-Up on Modernizing Surveillance. For formal Board discussion in late-July, this paper will explore efforts to modernize the Fund’s surveillance mandate and modalities, and will include a review of “Innovative Article IV Reports” and a further discussion of a possible Multilateral Surveillance Decision.

  • Multilateral perspective. The Fund can strengthen its ability to identify potential systemic vulnerabilities through spillover reports to coincide with the relevant Article IV. Staff plans one spillover report for the current year, with the goal of covering all five major economies (China, Euro Area, Japan, United Kingdom, and United States) over the course of the next 18-24 months. In addition, the Board will discuss in September Cross-Cutting Themes from Selected Countries: Employment.

  • Financial sector surveillance. A formal Board discussion on Fund Membership in the Financial Stability Board is scheduled for August; with another formal Board discussion on Integrating Stability Assessments under the Financial Sector Assessment Program into Article IV Surveillance for members with systemically important financial systems scheduled for September. A formal Board discussion, Assessing Financial Interconnectedness: Objectives and Tools, will assess data needs to measure financial interconnectedness, and is planned for end-October.

  • Bilateral surveillance. A paper on Bilateral Surveillance—the Obligation of Members to Consult with the Fund under Article IV, scheduled for formal Board discussion in October, clarifies the legal framework for timely consultations. In addition, a Concept Note on the 2010 Review of the Standards and Codes initiative will be discussed in an informal Board seminar after the recess in preparation for the formal review of the initiative scheduled for year-end.

10. Lending/safety nets. Last year’s reform of lending instruments played an important role in restoring confidence and lifting the global economy out of crisis. Nevertheless, there is scope for further improvement. In July, the Board will discuss Future Financing Role of the Fund: Next Steps, which will consider various ideas to strengthen the Fund’s crisis prevention toolkit, including improvements to the FCL, a new precautionary credit line to serve a broader group of members, a new multi-country swap/credit line, and collaboration with regional financing arrangements.

11. International monetary system. The IMF is uniquely positioned to study and assess the credibility and feasibility of various policy options to promote long-term stability and proper functioning of the IMS. Beyond exchange rate surveillance, work in this area includes Reserve Adequacy Metrics for Emerging Markets and Low-Income Countries in an informal Board seminar in July. Review of the Method of Valuation of the SDR, the five-yearly review of the composition, weights and interest rates used for each currency in the SDR basket, will be discussed by the Board in October. Finally, an IMS Sequel Paper will focus on the supply of reserve assets, including promoting EM reserve assets and enhancing the SDR’s role in the international monetary system, for Board discussion in September or October. A formal Board discussion on Capital Flows: the Fund’s Role, focusing on the adequacy of tools related to capital flows, is planned for the same timeframe.

12. In sum. The Work Program outlined above is an ambitious agenda designed to increase our effectiveness and ability to promote global stability. Reaching consensus on many of the proposed reforms will present challenges, but they are challenges we must meet if the Fund’s renewed relevance is to outlast the crisis. I look forward to working with you toward this end in the months ahead.

Statement by the Managing Director on the Work Program of the Executive Board - Executive Board Meeting - May 24, 2010
Author: International Monetary Fund