Update on the Financing of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) and the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Operations and the Subsidization of Post-Conflict Emergency Assistance
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Update on the Financing of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) and the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Operations and the Subsidization of Post-Conflict Emergency Assistance

Abstract

Update on the Financing of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) and the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Operations and the Subsidization of Post-Conflict Emergency Assistance

I. Overview

1. This paper provides the regular six-monthly update on the financing of the Fund’s concessional operations and the adequacy of balances in the Reserve Account of the PRGF Trust.1 Key points of the report are:

  • Uncommitted loan resources under the PRGF Trust amounted to SDR 3.4 billion as of end-February 2003, which will allow PRGF lending of about SDR 1.1 billion per year for 2003-05, in line with the projections for the interim PRGF. Based on information provided by area departments, new PRGF loan commitments are currently projected to amount to SDR 1.2 billion in 2003.

  • The conflict in the Middle East, with sustained higher oil prices, combined with a prolonged slowdown in export market growth, could raise demand for PRGF loans in 2003 by up to SDR 0.4 billion. Additional loan demand of this magnitude could be accommodated within the available resource envelope, but would reduce the average annual lending capacity for the subsequent two years to about SDR 0.9 billion. To the extent that higher demand from an adverse economic environment would persist beyond 2003, consideration might need to be given to mobilizing additional bilateral loan and subsidy resources for continuing PRGF operations, reducing access levels for new arrangements, or launching the self-sustained PRGF prior to 2006.

  • Balances in the Reserve Account of the PRGF Trust exceed repayments due to PRGF lenders through September 2003. A draft decision concerning the adequacy of Reserve Account balances is proposed for adoption by the Executive Board.

  • Subsidy and grant resources in the PRGF and PRGF-HIPC Trusts are estimated to exceed, by a small margin, the cost of new PRGF lending through 2005 and of the Fund’s participation in the enhanced HIPC Initiative, including very limited topping-up assistance at completion points. It remains important that all pending bilateral contributions be made effective soon.

  • Beyond 2005, the continuation of the Fund’s concessional lending could be financed from the resources accumulated in the Reserve Account of the PRGF Trust—the so called self-sustained PRGF—at an annual commitment capacity of about SDR 650 million in perpetuity.

  • Progress is being made in ongoing peace negotiations in Sudan, the successful conclusion of which would allow work to accelerate toward clearance of Sudan’s arrears to the Fund. The additional PRGF loan and subsidy resources (including HIPC grant assistance) that would eventually be required for Sudan are tentatively estimated at about SDR 1.1 billion and SDR 0.8 billion, respectively. These resources have not been provided for under the PRGF and PRGF-HIPC Trusts, and intensive efforts would be needed to mobilize contributions for this purpose.

  • Contributions to the administered account for the subsidization of post-conflict emergency assistance are estimated to be adequate for subsidizing charges on such assistance over the next two years.

2. The staff proposes that this paper be made public on the Fund’s external website, as was the case with the three previous reports.

II. Loan Resources and Reserve Account Coverage

PRGF Loan Resources for 2002-05 (the interim period)

3. Sufficient loan resources are available to support PRGF lending at an annual average level of about SDR 1.1 billion in 2003-05, broadly in line with average annual commitments under new PRGF arrangements over the past five years (Figure 1). In 2002, new commitments amounted to SDR 1.2 billion, including SDR 0.6 billion for the Democratic Republic of Congo following its clearance of arrears to the Fund in June 2002.

Figure 1.
Figure 1.

New PRGF Commitments, 1998-2002

(In millions of SDRs)

Citation: Policy Papers 2003, 011; 10.5089/9781498329668.007.A001

1/ Includes commitment for Pakistan of SDR 1,034 million (100 percent of quota).

Looking ahead, based on the information provided by area departments, commitments under possible new arrangements in 2003 are currently projected at SDR 1.2 billion. On this basis, the remaining uncommitted loan resources of SDR 3.4 billion2 should be sufficient to cover the projected commitments for 2003 and new annual commitments averaging SDR 1.1 billion for 2004-05. These projected commitments for 2003, however, do not take into account any potential impact from a prolongation of adverse global economic conditions (see Section V).

Reserve Account of the PRGF Trust

4. Balances in the Reserve Account of the PRGF Trust exceed repayments to PRGF lenders in the six-month period to end-September 2003. At end-February 2003, balances in the Reserve Account amounted to SDR 3.1 billion, exceeding by a factor of seven the scheduled repayments to PRGF Trust lenders of SDR 0.4 billion through September 2003 (Box 1). A draft decision confirming the adequacy of Reserve Account balances is proposed for adoption by the Executive Board below (see Section VII).

The Reserve Account of the PRGF Trust

A key purpose of the Reserve Account is to provide security to lenders to the PRGF Trust in the event of delays in payment or defaults by PRGF borrowers. The Account is also used to cover mismatches between repayments from borrowers and repayments to lenders. Historically, Reserve Account balances have averaged 40-45 percent of outstanding claims on the PRGF Trust, and current balances are consistent with this level, as illustrated below. The Executive Board is required to review the adequacy of balances in the Reserve Account every six months as long as PRGF loans related to the encashment of rights under rights accumulation programs remain outstanding; such loans remain outstanding to Sierra Leone and Zambia.

uA01fig01

PRGF Trust Reserve Account Coverage

(In percent of outstanding obligations)

Citation: Policy Papers 2003, 011; 10.5089/9781498329668.007.A001

1/ Based on current projections, outstanding PRGF Trust obligations will decline sharply starting in 2017, resulting in an increase in the Reserve Account coverage.

5. Zimbabwe has been in arrears to the PRGF Trust since mid-February 2001 and represents the only case of protracted arrears to the Trust. At end-February 2003, Zimbabwe’s arrears (principal and interest) to the PRGF Trust amounted to SDR 68 million. Principal arrears have required payments to PRGF lenders from the Reserve Account to the tune of SDR 66 million. The Reserve Account will be replenished when Zimbabwe settles its arrears to the PRGF Trust.

III. PRGF Subsidies and HIPC Initiative Grants

6. The total cost of subsidizing PRGF loans and financing the Fund’s share of debt relief under the enhanced HIPC Initiative is currently estimated at SDR 7.2 billion, broadly unchanged since the last update (Table 1). The estimated cost of subsidizing PRGF loans remains at SDR 5.1 billion,3 while the Fund’s share of HIPC Initiative assistance, excluding any topping-up at completion points, is estimated at SDR 2.1 billion. As of end-February 2003, the Fund had committed HIPC Initiative assistance of SDR 1.6 billion to 26 countries, of which about SDR 1 billion had been disbursed. Staff estimates that the Fund’s share of potential topping-up assistance at completion points could be on the order of SDR 40-70 million.4

Table 1.

Financing of PRGF Subsidies and HIPC Initiative Grants

(In billions of SDRs on a cash basis)

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1/

Projections are based on the assumed annual interest rate of 5 percent, unchanged from the interest rate assumption used in the September 2002 update.

2/

Equivalent to US$2.9 billion in 2002 NPV terms. Based on current projections, the HIPC Initiative grants will be fully disbursed by 2007.

7. The combined subsidy and grant resources of the PRGF and PRGF-HIPC Trusts are projected to amount to about SDR 7.5 billion on a cash basis through 2019, also broadly unchanged since the last update.5 Since the last update, Brazil and Libya have made effective their contributions to the PRGF-HIPC Trust of SDR 15 million and SDR 7.3 million “as needed,” respectively. Pledged contributions of SDR 32 million (2 percent of the total) from 12 countries have not yet been made effective (Table 2).

Table 2.

Pending Subsidy Contributions to the PRGF-HIPC Trust

(In millions of SDRs “as needed”, as of end-February 2003) 1/

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1/

“As needed” is defined in Appendix Table 5, footnote 3.

2/

This is the remaining balance for Argentina and Gabon, which have already contributed SDR 16.2 million and SDR 2.5 million “as needed,” respectively, to the PRGF-HIPC Trust. See Appendix Table 5 for additional information.

Table 5.

Summary of Bilateral Contributions to the PRGF and PRGF-HIPC Trusts

(In millions of SDRs; as of end-January 2003)

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*

Less than SDR 5,000.

1/

The calculations are based on actual interest rates through end-June 2002 and an assumed SDR interest rate of 5 percent per annum thereafter.

2/

Excludes a loan commitment from the OPEC Fund for International Development of US$50 million (equivalent to SDR 37 million).

3/

The term "as needed" refers to the nominal undiscounted sum of the projected delivery of HIPC assistance plus the profile of projected subsidy needs associated with PRGF lending during 2002-05.

8. overall, subsidy and grant resources available to the PRGF and PRGF-HIPC Trusts are projected to exceed the cost of PRGF subsidies and the Fund’s share of HIPC Initiative assistance (including limited topping-up projected at completion points) by a small margin. Current projections indicate that available resources would likely exceed financing requirements by about SDR 300 million. The projected surplus of available grant and subsidy resources is based on an assumed interest rate of 5 percent per annum for investment returns and on interest obligations due to PRGF Trust lenders over the remaining life of the PRGF Trust (around 2019). The projected surplus would be eliminated if the rate were to exceed 5.4 percent, as financing needs are more sensitive to interest rate changes than available resources are (Table 3).6 Furthermore, a higher level of PRGF lending, larger frontloading of loan disbursements, or a higher-than-expected cost of HIPC Initiative assistance would require additional subsidy and grant resources.

Table 3.

Interest Rate Sensitivity of PRGF Subsidy and Grant Resources

(In billions of SDRs on a cash basis)

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IV. Self-Sustained PRGF

9. It is envisaged that, when currently available PRGF loan resources have been fully committed, the continuation of the Fund’s concessional lending will be financed, on a revolving basis, from the resources accumulated in the Reserve Account of the PRGF Trust—the so called self-sustained PRGF. It is estimated that the accumulated balances in the Reserve Account could sustain annual PRGF loan commitments of about SDR 650 million in perpetuity, while maintaining Reserve Account coverage of claims on the PRGF Trust at the historical level of about 40-45 percent through the life of the Trust.

10. The projected level of self-sustained PRGF lending is sensitive to a number of assumptions, including the timing of the commencement of self-sustained operations and the rate of return on Reserve Account balances. The above projections assume that self-sustained PRGF operations will commence in 2006 and that a rate of return on investment of 5 percent per annum is maintained. A one-year advance in the launch of self-sustained PRGF lending would, all other things being equal, permanently lower the annual commitment capacity by about SDR 30 million, while a decline in the rate of return on Reserve Account balances of V2 percentage point below the assumed 5 percent would lower the annual commitment capacity by about the same amount.

V. Potential Additional Demand for Concessional Resources

11. The adverse global economic environment and the conflict in the Middle East add uncertainty to the assessment of the adequacy of PRGF-HIPC resources. As a point of comparison, the loan resources currently available for PRGF lending through 2005 are on par with the resources available at the start of the 1990-91 Gulf War. Those resources proved adequate then as there was no marked increase in new concessional arrangements in the wake of the Gulf War. It is, of course, unclear at this stage whether the impact of the conflict in the Middle East would be similar to the fallout of the earlier Gulf War.

12. Based on area departments’ updated projections, should the current lackluster export market growth and high oil prices persist, the additional need for PRGF loans could amount to up to SDR 0.4 billion. This would be on top of the SDR 1.2 billion in new PRGF commitments already projected for 2003. Additional demand for PRGF loans of this magnitude could be accommodated within the existing resource envelope, but would reduce the average annual lending capacity for the subsequent two years to SDR 0.9 billion. To the extent that this higher demand would persist beyond 2003, consideration might also need to be given to mobilizing additional bilateral loan and subsidy resources for continuing PRGF operations, reducing access levels for new arrangements, or launching the self-sustained PRGF prior to 2006. Staff will continue to closely monitor developments in this area in the period ahead.

13. Another important consideration regarding potential demand for concessional resources is that the financing required to address the arrears and debt problems of Liberia, Somalia, and Sudan—the three countries with the longest outstanding arrears to the Fund—has not been secured. In the funding of the PRGF and PRGF-HIPC Trusts, no allowance was made for the loan, subsidy, and HIPC Initiative grant resources that would be needed to clear these countries’ arrears to the Fund, which currently stand at close to SDR 1.8 billion. No progress has been made by Liberia and Somalia in settling their arrears to the Fund. However, if the ongoing peace negotiations in Sudan are successfully concluded in the not too distant future, the effort to clear Sudan’s arrears to the Fund would rapidly pick up pace. In addition to loan resources of SDR 1.1 billion (corresponding to Sudan’s arrears to the Fund), preliminary estimates indicate that PRGF subsidy and HIPC grant resources of about SDR 0.8 billion would eventually be required to address Sudan’s arrears and debt problems.7 A comprehensive effort would be required to mobilize the additional loan and grant resources for this purpose.

VI. Subsidization of post-conflict emergency assistance

14. Contributions to the subsidization of post-conflict emergency assistance are estimated to be adequate through at least 2004. In May 2001, an administered account was established to subsidize the rate of charge on post-conflict emergency assistance to PRGF-eligible countries to 0.5 percent per annum. At end-February 2003, total pledged contributions to this account from seven countries amounted to almost SDR 12 million (Table 4), whereas estimates of the potential need for subsidy resources through 2004 are in the range SDR 7-12 million. Thus far, subsidy grants of SDR 1.4 million have been disbursed to seven members.8

Table 4.

Subsidy Contributions for Post-Conflict Emergency Assistance

(In millions, as of end-February 2003)

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VII. Proposed Decision (on the Adequacy of Reserve Account Balances)

15. The following draft decision, which can be adopted by the majority of votes cast, is proposed for adoption by the Executive Board:

Pursuant to Decision No. 10286-(93/23) ESAF, adopted on February 22, 1993, as amended, the Fund has reviewed the adequacy of balances in the Reserve Account of the PRGF Trust, and determines that they are sufficient to meet all obligations that could give rise to payments from the Account to lenders to the Loan Account of the PRGF Trust in the six months from April 1, 2003 to September 30, 2003.

Table 6

PRGF Trust—Subsidy Agreements 1/ As of end-January 2003

(In millions of SDRs, unless otherwise noted)

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1/

Subsidy contributions to the PRGF Trust result from the difference between the investment income on contributions and the below market rate of interest paid to contributors. Excludes contribution by Spain that will coincide with the repayment installments of the PRGF Trust loan from the Government of Spain.

2/

Equivalent of US$10 million (at the exchange rate of June 29, 1994).

3/

Interest rate paid is equivalent to the return on investment by the Fund on this deposit (net of any costs), less 2.0 percent per annum. If the interest rate obtained is less than 2.0 per annum, the deposit shall bear zero interest.

4/

All the deposits will be repaid together at the end of ten years after the date of the first deposit.

5/

All the deposits will be repaid together at the end of sixteen years after the date of the first deposit.

6/

In January 1998, the Bank of Thailand requested and obtained the immediate encashment of the two investments totaling SDR 60 million.

7/

Equivalent of US$5 million (at the exchange rate of May 11, 1994).

8/

Interest rate paid is equivalent to the return on this investment by the Fund (net of any costs), less 2.6 percent per annum. If the interest rate obtained by the Fund is 2.6 percent per annum or less, the investment shall bear zero interest.

Table 7.

PRGF Trust—Loan Agreements

(In millions of SDRs; as of end-January 2003)

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1/

Including additional loan commitments for interim PRGF operations.

2/

Before April 17, 1998, known as Caisse Fran9aise de Développement.

3/

In late 1999, the Bank of Italy replaced the Ufficio Italiano dei Cambi as lender to the PRGF Trust.

4/

On October 1, 1999 the Export-Import Bank of Japan merged with the Overseas Economic Cooperation Fund and became the Japan Bank for International Cooperation.

5/

The loan commitment is for the SDR equivalent of US$50 million.

6/

The original loan commitment of the Bank of Spain was SDR 220 million; however, only SDR 216.4 million was drawn and disbursed by the expiration date for drawings.

7/

The full loan commitment of SDR 200 million was drawn in January 1989; this amount was fully disbursed to borrowers by March 1994.

8/

On August 26, 1998, the SFD indicated that it did not intend to make further loans in association with the PRGF.

9/

Any mismatch of outstanding resources between the amount owed by PRGF borrowers and the amount owed to PRGF lenders arises because of mismatches in timing between drawdowns from lenders to the Trust and disbursements of PRGF loans to borrowers.

Table 8.

PRGF Trust—Reserve Account Coverage 1/

(In millions of SDRs)

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Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.
1/

Projections exclude the impact of the projected initiation of self-sustained PRGF operations in 2006.

2/

Excludes associated loans from the Saudi Fund for Development (SFD), the risk of which is borne by the SFD. Current overdue Trust Fund obligations (SDR 117 million), overdue SAF obligations (SDR 10 million), and overdue PRGF obligations (SDR 68 million) are assumed to be paid in 2005.

Table 9.

Information on Pending Bilateral Contributions to the PRGF-HIPC Trust Status as of March 20031

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1

Reflects pledged contributions which are not yet effective. Post-SCA-2 amounts shown include refunds of SCA-2 resources and accumulated interest income.

1

The previous update report was issued in August 2002 (SM/02/273, 8/21/02).

2

Includes an undisbursed amount of SDR 0.2 billion under expired PRGF arrangements.

3

Loan disbursements from the PRGF Trust could continue until 2009, and the last repayments of principal would take place in 2019.

4

This very limited topping-up assistance could be covered by available financing.

5

The sources of subsidy and grant contributions to the PRGF and PRGF-HTPC Trusts were described in an earlier update paper. See Update on the Financing ofPRGFandHIPC Operations and the Subsidization of Post-Conflict Emergency Assistance (SM/02/96, 3/26/02).

6

The financing required consists of PRGF subsidies, which are sensitive to changes in interest rates, and HIPC Initiative grants, which are broadly independent of interest rates. The financing available comprises grants and investment income earned on grants and deposits, with only the latter sensitive to changes in interest rates. In nominal terms, the interest sensitive component ο? the financing required is thus considerably larger than the corresponding component ο? the financing available.

7

See SudanFundamental Issues in Resolving External Debt Problems and Achieving Debt Sustainability (EBS/02/96, 6/5/02).

8

Albania, Burundi, Guinea-Bissau, the Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, and Tajikistan.

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Update on the Financing of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) and the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Operations and the Subsidization of Post-Conflict Emergency Assistance
Author:
International Monetary Fund