Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Gone with the Headwinds: Global Productivity
Author:
Gustavo Adler
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Mr. Romain A Duval
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https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2775-7172
,
Davide Furcerinull

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Ksenia Koloskova
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Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro
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https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0998-7238
Series:
Staff Discussion Notes
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2017: Issue 004
Language:
English
Publication Date:
03 Apr 2017
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475589672.006
ISBN:
9781475589672
ISSN:
2617-6750
Pages:
98
Keywords:
SDN; TFP growth; productivity growth; TFP slowdown; labor market; loss-making firm; productivity slowdown; Labor Productivity; Total factor Productivity; Growth; TFP hysteresis; TFP decomposition; TFP gain; Productivity; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Capital productivity; Global; Europe
Legal-disclaimer:
Staff Discussion Notes (SDNs) showcase policy-related analysis and research being developed by IMF staff members and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in this Policy Discussion Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy.
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Productivity growth—the key driver of living standards—fell sharply following the global financial crisis and has remained sluggish since, adding to a slowdown already in train before. Building on new research, this note finds that the productivity slowdown reflects both crisis legacies and structural headwinds. In advanced economies, the global financial crisis has led to “productivity hysteresis”—persistent productivity losses from a seemingly temporary shock. Behind this are balance sheet vulnerabilities, protracted weak demand and elevated uncertainty, which jointly triggered an adverse feedback loop of weak investment, weak productivity and bleak income prospects. Structural headwinds—already blowing before the crisis—include a waning ICT boom and slowing technology diffusion, partly reflecting an aging workforce, slowing global trade and weaker human capital accumulation. Reviving productivity growth requires addressing remaining crisis legacies in the short run while pressing ahead with structural reforms to tackle longer-term headwinds.
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Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Staff Discussion Notes
ISSN:
2617-6750
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund
Volume 2017: Issue 004