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This paper was written as background for a conference on “Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy II,” to take place at the International Monetary Fund, April 16–17, 2013. Olivier Blanchard is the IMF’s Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department. Giovanni Dell’Ariccia is an Advisor in the Research Department. Paolo Mauro is an Assistant Director in the African Department. The authors thank George Akerlof, Markus Brunnermeier, Olivier Coibion, Jorg Decressin, Avinash Dixit, Chris Erceg, Josh Felman, and Jonathan Ostry for useful comments and suggestions.