Technical Notes and Manuals Volume 2021 Issue 001: Using Macroeconomic Frameworks to Analyze the Impact of COVID-19: An Application to Colombia and Cambodia (2021)

Using Macroeconomic Frameworks to Analyze the Impact of COVID-19: An Application to Colombia and Cambodia

Author:

Mr. Ales Bulir

Mr. Ales Bulir
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Daniel Baksa

0000000404811396

https://isni.org/isni/0000000404811396 International Monetary Fund

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Mr. Juan S Corrales

Mr. Juan S Corrales
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Andres Gonzalez

Andres Gonzalez
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Diego Rodriguez

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https://isni.org/isni/0000000404811396 International Monetary Fund

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, and

Dyna Heng

Dyna Heng
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Series:: Technical Notes and Manuals

Volume/Issue:: Volume 2021: Issue 001

Publication Date:: 01 Apr 2021

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513571973.005

ISBN:: 9781513571973

ISSN:: 2075-8669

Pages:: 30

Keywords:: TNM; potential GDP; fiscal policy variable; monetary policy rate; headline inflation; labor supply shock; modeling literature strand

Legal-disclaimer:: This Technical Guidance Note should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Series:: Technical Notes and Manuals

Volume/Issue:: Volume 2021: Issue 001

Language:: English

Publication Date:: 01 Apr 2021

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513571973.005

ISBN:: 9781513571973

ISSN:: 2075-8669

Pages:: 30

Keywords:: TNM; potential GDP; fiscal policy variable; monetary policy rate; headline inflation; labor supply shock; modeling literature strand

Legal-disclaimer:: This Technical Guidance Note should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

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This technical note and manual (TNM) addresses the following issues: • Evaluating the full implications from the policies adopted to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy requires a well-developed macroeconomic framework. This note illustrates how such frameworks were used to analyze Colombia and Cambodia's shock impact at the beginning of the pandemic. • The use of macroeconomic frameworks is not to infer general policy conclusions from abstract models or empirical analysis but to help policymakers think through and articulate coherent forecasts, scenarios, and policy responses. • The two country cases illustrate how to construct a baseline scenario consistent with a COVID-19 shock within structural macroeconomic models. The scenario is built gradually to incorporate the available information, the pandemic's full effects, and the policy responses. • The results demonstrate the value of combining close attention to the data, near-term forecasting, and model-based analyses to support coherent policies.

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Technical Notes and Manuals

ISSN:: 2075-8669

Publisher:: International Monetary Fund

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