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IMF Country Report No. 24/336

CHAD

SELECTED ISSUES

December 2024

This paper on Chad was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on November 21, 2024.

Copies of this report are available to the public from

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© 2024 International Monetary Fund

Title page

CHAD

SELECTED ISSUES

November 21, 2024

Approved By

African Department

Contents

• ANCHORING FISCAL POLICY IN CHAD – TOWARDS A MEDIUM-TERM FISCAL FRAMEWORK

• A. Introduction

• B. Fiscal Policy and Oil Dependence in Chad

• C. Designing a Fiscal Framework for Chad

• D. Calibrating the Debt Target and Financial Assets Floor

• E. Operationalizing the Fiscal Anchor

• F. Conclusion and Policy Recommendations

• BOXES

• 1. The Impact of Boom-Bust Cycles on the Quality and Efficiency of Public Investment

• 2. Challenges to Using a Permanent Income Hypothesis Approach in Chad

• 3. Maximum Debt Limit vs Debt Target

• FIGURES

• 1. Oil Output, Revenue and Exports, 2005-23

• 2. Oil Exports, 2005–23

• 3. Oil Prices and Fiscal Performance, 2005-23

• 4. Oil Revenue and Government Spending, 2005-23

• 5. Oil Revenue and the Fiscal Balance, 2005-23

• 6. Changes in Total Public Debt, 2006-23

• 7. CEMAC Countries: Government Deposits, 2010-23

• 8. CEMAC Countries: Net Foreign Assets, 2015-23

• 9. Calibrated Debt Target and Safety Buffer

• 10. Non-Oil Primary Balance

• 11. Net Debt

• CLIMATE CHANGE IN CHAD: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

• A. Climate and Socio-Economic Context in Chad

• B. Vulnerability to Climate Shocks

• C. Climate Change Policies in Chad

• D. Policy Recommendations

• E. Prioritization and Search for Synergies

• F. Public Investment Management

• G. Financing

• H. Social Protection

• I. Summary and Conclusions

• BOXES

• 1. Climate Change and Food Security

• 2. Government Framework for Climate Action

• 3. C-PIMA 2022

• 4. Financing Climate Action in Chad

• References

• ASSESSING THE NATURE AND SEVERITY OF GOVERNANCE VULNERABILITIES IN CHAD

• A. Introduction

• B. Fiscal Governance

• C. Revenue Administration

• D. Public Financial Management and Fiscal Transparency

• E. Quality of Market Regulation

• F. Anti-Corruption Legal and Institutional Framework

• G. Rule of Law

• H. AML/CFT Framework

• I. Conclusion

• FIGURE

• 1. Barriers to Market Entry

• References

• ASSESSING THE MACRO-CRITICALITY OF GENDER GAPS IN CHAD

• A. Introduction

• B. Literature Review

• C. Taking Stock of Gender Gaps in Chad

• D. Empirical Analysis

• E. Addressing Gender Gaps

• FIGURE

• 1. Gender Inequality Index Among Countries with Low Human Development, 2022

• TABLES

• 1. Gender Gap Index and Subcomponents, 2024

• 2. Gender Gap Indicators – Education, 2024

• 3. Gender Gap Indicators – Health, 2024

• 4. Gender Gap Indicators – Access to Finance

• 5. Gender Gap Indicators – Access to Legal Rights

• 6. Gender Gap Indicators – Economic Participation, 2024

• 7. Gender Gap Indicators – Decision-Making Positions, 2024

• 8. Regression Results

• References