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Bulgaria: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bulgaria
Author:
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
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Series:
IMF Staff Country Reports
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2024: Issue 163
Language:
English
Publication Date:
13 Jun 2024
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400276156.002
ISBN:
9798400276156
ISSN:
1934-7685
Pages:
55
Keywords:
IMF's transparency policy; potential GDP; Policy discussion; EU grant; IMF's article; policy measure; Fiscal stance; Income; Pension spending; Wages; Global
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The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Bulgarian economy has shown resilience through a succession of shocks and is achieving a soft landing. Growth slowed in 2023 to 1.8 percent driven by a decline in private investment due to uncertainty and by the unwinding of the inventory buildup of 2021–2022. Growth is expected to rebound this year thanks to the recovery in demand from key trading partners, which will spur exports and private investment, while public investment is to be supported by EU funds. Despite sustained wage and pension growth and inflationary pressures from an expansionary 2024 budget, inflation is projected to continue declining owing to the projected continued fall in global food and energy prices, but it has remained higher than in many European peers. Deep structural reforms are needed to foster higher and more inclusive growth. Addressing declining potential growth and slow income convergence requires containing the decline in the labor force, more investment, higher productivity, greater competitiveness, and further integration into global and regional value chains.
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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
IMF Staff Country Reports
ISSN:
1934-7685
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund