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Italy: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Italy
Author:
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
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Series:
IMF Staff Country Reports
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2023: Issue 273
Language:
English
Publication Date:
26 Jul 2023
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400249198.002
ISBN:
9798400249198
ISSN:
1934-7685
Pages:
99
Keywords:
headline inflation; money market rate; private sector liquidity; current account norm; potential GDP; export market shares; liability positions vis-a-vis nonresident; Energy prices; Tax allowances; Loans; Wages; Global
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The 2023 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Italian economy has weathered well the effects of Russia’s war in Ukraine, growing by 3.7 percent in 2022. Private consumption rose robustly on recovery in employment, buoyant tourism, and extensive fiscal support of real purchasing power. Growth in services and construction offset weakness in manufacturing, especially in energy-intensive industries affected by high-energy prices. Consumer prices increased, largely on surging energy prices, financial conditions tightened considerably and yields on Italian government bonds have risen as monetary policy tightened. Growth is expected to enter a slower phase and downside risks dominate the outlook. Growth is forecast to moderate to 1.1 percent in 2023 and to 0.9 percent in 2024, and then to pick up temporarily to 1.1 percent in 2025. Headline inflation is projected to decline steeply to 5.2 percent in 2023 and to 2.5 percent in 2024, driven by lower energy and food prices.
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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
IMF Staff Country Reports
ISSN:
1934-7685
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund