Abstract
IMF Country Report No. 23/106
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IMF Country Report No. 23/106
KINGDOM OF NETHERLANDS— THE NETHERLANDS
2022 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION—PRESS RELEASE; STAFF REPORT; AND STATEMENT BY THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR FOR THE NETHERLANDS
March 2023
Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. In the context of the 2022 Article IV consultation with The Netherlands, the following documents have been released and are included in this package:
A Press Release summarizing the views of the Executive Board as expressed during its February 27, 2023, consideration of the staff report that concluded the Article IV consultation with The Netherlands.
The Staff Report prepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’s consideration on February 27, 2023, following discussions that ended on December 9, 2022, with the officials of The Netherlands on economic developments and policies. Based on information available at the time of these discussions, the staff report was completed on February 8, 2023.
An Informational Annex prepared by the IMF staff.
A Statement by the Executive Director for The Netherlands.
The document listed below have been or will be separately released.
Selected Issues
The IMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information and premature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports and other documents.
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© 2023 International Monetary Fund
Press Release
PR23/63
IMF Executive Board Concludes 2022 Article IV Consultation with the Netherlands
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Washington, DC – March 9, 2023: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation1 with the Netherlands.
The Netherlands was more resilient than its peers during and after the pandemic. Reflecting the prevalence of telecommuting and a strong fiscal response, the Dutch economy experienced a less severe recession followed by a more robust recovery than in the euro area. Real GDP grew by 4.9 percent in 2021, surpassing its pre-pandemic level, as private consumption staged a vibrant recovery boosted by the release of accumulated savings and a strong labor market. By end-2022, inflation had eased after a record high in September, but remained elevated, largely driven by energy prices. The labor market is tight with a low unemployment rate and high vacancies, although wages have not picked up strongly so far. Overall, the economy appears to be overheating.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is posing new challenges, but the Netherlands has suffered a smaller decline in the terms of trade compared to the rest of the euro area. The current account surplus is expected to have declined to 5.5 percent of GDP in 2022, from 7.2 percent of GDP in 2021, mainly driven by deteriorating terms of trade The government has taken several measures to address the rising cost of living, and higher public gas revenues and the strong post-pandemic growth have strengthened the fiscal balance. The financial cycle has started to moderate, accompanied by rapid cooling of a richly valued housing market.
Growth is projected to slow to 0.6 percent in 2023 from 4.2 percent in 2022, as high inflation weighs on consumption, external demand wanes, and financial conditions tighten. Over the medium term, growth will be underpinned by public investment and reforms. Headline inflation is expected to moderate in 2023 with the activation of the energy price ceiling, while core inflation is projected to peak in 2023 at about 7.3 percent. The fiscal deficit is projected to increase to 2.8 percent of GDP in 2023, mainly reflecting government measures to cushion the impact of high energy prices and the economic slowdown. However, the Dutch fiscal position remains strong, with the public debt to GDP ratio expected to remain below 50 percent over the medium term.
Executive Board Assessment2
Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. They took positive note that the Dutch economy showed impressive resilience during and after the pandemic, supported by a strong policy response. Nevertheless, the energy shock caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, elevated inflation, and tighter financial conditions, as well as lower external demand and a cooling housing market, pose challenges.
Directors considered that a non-expansionary or modestly contractionary fiscal stance is called for in 2023 to help monetary policy fight high inflation amid a tight labor market. They stressed that fiscal policy should remain flexible, given high uncertainty. While commending the authorities for using their fiscal space to cushion the impact of high energy prices, they recommended better targeting to protect public finances from high volatility in international energy prices and to help price signals incentivize energy saving. In this context, some Directors acknowledged the authorities’ view regarding the cost and implementation challenges of some targeted policies. Directors welcomed the authorities’ intention to explore additional measures to offset the budgetary cost of the price cap and make the support more targeted.
Directors commended the authorities for taking measures to enhance energy security and fight climate change. Boosting investment in clean energy will also enhance energy security while contributing to the green transition. They welcomed the authorities’ commitment to enhance climate policies and encouraged integrating climate adaptation in long-term planning frameworks.
Directors took positive note that Dutch financial institutions are resilient, with considerable capital buffers. Nonetheless, they underscored the need to continue to closely monitor financial sector developments given higher risks stemming from the energy crisis and tighter financial conditions. The recent flagging house price momentum has also heightened vulnerabilities. In this context, Directors welcomed the increase in the counter-cyclical capital buffer, but cautioned that a pro-cyclical stance should be avoided given high uncertainty. To fully address vulnerabilities among Non-Bank Financial Institutions (NBFIs) and mitigate the risk of tensions on Liability-Driven Investment Funds, Directors urged the authorities to continue to closely monitor NBFIs, work toward closing data gaps, and improve the supervision of these institutions, including by contributing to international efforts in this area.
Directors agreed that the Netherlands should continue to use its ample fiscal space to invest in its medium-term challenges with a view to enhancing economic and social resilience, while also contributing to external rebalancing. They welcomed spending and policies, including under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan, to advance the green and digital transitions and to tackle structural challenges in housing, labor markets, capital taxation, and the education system, as well as support R&D. Upskilling and policies to improve female labor participation will be particularly important.
It is expected that the next Article IV consultation with the Netherlands will be held on the standard 12-month cycle.
The Netherlands: Selected Economic Indicators, 2021–2024
(Percent change, unless otherwise indicated)
Contribution to GDP growth.
In percent of potential GDP.
The Netherlands: Selected Economic Indicators, 2021–2024
(Percent change, unless otherwise indicated)
| 2021 | 2022 Proj. | 2023 Proj. | 2024 Proj. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National accounts (percent change) | |||||
| Gross domestic product | 4.9 | 4.2 | 0.6 | 1.2 | |
| Private consumption | 3.6 | 5.7 | 0.8 | 1.3 | |
| Public consumption | 5.2 | 0.6 | 3.1 | 2.3 | |
| Gross fixed investment | 3.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 1.5 | |
| Total domestic demand | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 1.6 | |
| Exports of goods and nonfactor | |||||
| services | 5.4 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | |
| Imports of goods and nonfactor | |||||
| services | 4.4 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.8 | |
| Net foreign balance1 | 1.3 | 1.3 | -0.9 | -0.3 | |
| Output gap (percent of potential | |||||
| output) | -1.1 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | |
| Prices, wages, and employment | |||||
| Consumer price index (HICP) | 2.8 | 11.6 | 4.8 | 3.9 | |
| GDP deflator | 2.5 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 4.0 | |
| Hourly compensation (manufacturing) | 0.2 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 3.5 | |
| Unit labor costs (manufacturing) | -4.8 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | |
| Employment (percent) | |||||
| Unemployment rate (ILO definition) | 4.2 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.2 | |
| NAIRU | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | |
| External trade (percent of GDP) | |||||
| Merchandise balance | 7.3 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 6.0 | |
| Current account balance | 7.2 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 6.1 | |
| General government accounts (percent of | GDP) | ||||
| Revenue | 44.0 | 44.0 | 43.8 | 43.3 | |
| Expenditure | 46.6 | 45.0 | 46.6 | 45.1 | |
| Net lending/borrowing | -2.6 | -1.0 | -2.8 | -1.8 | |
| Primary balance | -2.2 | -0.9 | -3.0 | -1.9 | |
| Structural balance2 | 1.6 | 0.1 | -2.1 | -2.4 | |
| Structural primary balance2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | -1.6 | -1.9 | |
| General government gross debt | 52.3 | 48.3 | 48.5 | 47.9 | |
Contribution to GDP growth.
In percent of potential GDP.
The Netherlands: Selected Economic Indicators, 2021–2024
(Percent change, unless otherwise indicated)
| 2021 | 2022 Proj. | 2023 Proj. | 2024 Proj. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National accounts (percent change) | |||||
| Gross domestic product | 4.9 | 4.2 | 0.6 | 1.2 | |
| Private consumption | 3.6 | 5.7 | 0.8 | 1.3 | |
| Public consumption | 5.2 | 0.6 | 3.1 | 2.3 | |
| Gross fixed investment | 3.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 1.5 | |
| Total domestic demand | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 1.6 | |
| Exports of goods and nonfactor | |||||
| services | 5.4 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | |
| Imports of goods and nonfactor | |||||
| services | 4.4 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.8 | |
| Net foreign balance1 | 1.3 | 1.3 | -0.9 | -0.3 | |
| Output gap (percent of potential | |||||
| output) | -1.1 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | |
| Prices, wages, and employment | |||||
| Consumer price index (HICP) | 2.8 | 11.6 | 4.8 | 3.9 | |
| GDP deflator | 2.5 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 4.0 | |
| Hourly compensation (manufacturing) | 0.2 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 3.5 | |
| Unit labor costs (manufacturing) | -4.8 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | |
| Employment (percent) | |||||
| Unemployment rate (ILO definition) | 4.2 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.2 | |
| NAIRU | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | |
| External trade (percent of GDP) | |||||
| Merchandise balance | 7.3 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 6.0 | |
| Current account balance | 7.2 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 6.1 | |
| General government accounts (percent of | GDP) | ||||
| Revenue | 44.0 | 44.0 | 43.8 | 43.3 | |
| Expenditure | 46.6 | 45.0 | 46.6 | 45.1 | |
| Net lending/borrowing | -2.6 | -1.0 | -2.8 | -1.8 | |
| Primary balance | -2.2 | -0.9 | -3.0 | -1.9 | |
| Structural balance2 | 1.6 | 0.1 | -2.1 | -2.4 | |
| Structural primary balance2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | -1.6 | -1.9 | |
| General government gross debt | 52.3 | 48.3 | 48.5 | 47.9 | |
Contribution to GDP growth.
In percent of potential GDP.
Press Release
PR[23/XX]
IMF Executive Board Concludes 2022 Article IV Consultation with the Netherlands
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Washington, DC – February 27, 2023: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation1 with the Netherlands.
The Netherlands was more resilient than its peers during and after the pandemic. Reflecting the prevalence of telecommuting and a strong fiscal response, the Dutch economy experienced a less severe recession followed by a more robust recovery than in the euro area. Real GDP grew by 4.9 percent in 2021, surpassing its pre-pandemic level, as private consumption staged a vibrant recovery boosted by the release of accumulated savings and a strong labor market. By end-2022, inflation had eased after a record high in September, but remained elevated, largely driven by energy prices. The labor market is tight with a low unemployment rate and high vacancies, although wages have not picked up strongly so far. Overall, the economy appears to be overheating.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is posing new challenges, but the Netherlands has suffered a smaller decline in the terms of trade compared to the rest of the euro area. The current account surplus is expected to have declined to 5.5 percent of GDP in 2022, from 7.2 percent of GDP in 2021, mainly driven by deteriorating terms of trade The government has taken several measures to address the rising cost of living, and higher public gas revenues and the strong post-pandemic growth have strengthened the fiscal balance. The financial cycle has started to moderate, accompanied by rapid cooling of a richly valued housing market.
Growth is projected to slow to 0.6 percent in 2023 from 4.2 percent in 2022, as high inflation weighs on consumption, external demand wanes, and financial conditions tighten. Over the medium term, growth will be underpinned by public investment and reforms. Headline inflation is expected to moderate in 2023 with the activation of the energy price ceiling, while core inflation is projected to peak in 2023 at about 7.3 percent. The fiscal deficit is projected to increase to 2.8 percent of GDP in 2023, mainly reflecting government measures to cushion the impact of high energy prices and the economic slowdown. However, the Dutch fiscal position remains strong, with the public debt to GDP ratio expected to remain below 50 percent over the medium term.
Executive Board Assessment2
Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. They took positive note that the Dutch economy showed impressive resilience during and after the pandemic, supported by a strong policy response. Nevertheless, the energy shock caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, elevated inflation, and tighter financial conditions, as well as lower external demand and a cooling housing market, pose challenges.
Directors considered that a non-expansionary or modestly contractionary fiscal stance is called for in 2023 to help monetary policy fight high inflation amid a tight labor market. They stressed that fiscal policy should remain flexible, given high uncertainty. While commending the authorities for using their fiscal space to cushion the impact of high energy prices, they recommended better targeting to protect public finances from high volatility in international energy prices and to help price signals incentivize energy saving. In this context, some Directors acknowledged the authorities’ view regarding the cost and implementation challenges of some targeted policies. Directors welcomed the authorities’ intention to explore additional measures to offset the budgetary cost of the price cap and make the support more targeted.
Directors commended the authorities for taking measures to enhance energy security and fight climate change. Boosting investment in clean energy will also enhance energy security while contributing to the green transition. They welcomed the authorities’ commitment to enhance climate policies and encouraged integrating climate adaptation in long-term planning frameworks.
Directors took positive note that Dutch financial institutions are resilient, with considerable capital buffers. Nonetheless, they underscored the need to continue to closely monitor financial sector developments given higher risks stemming from the energy crisis and tighter financial conditions. The recent flagging house price momentum has also heightened vulnerabilities. In this context, Directors welcomed the increase in the counter-cyclical capital buffer, but cautioned that a pro-cyclical stance should be avoided given high uncertainty. To fully address vulnerabilities among Non-Bank Financial Institutions (NBFIs) and mitigate the risk of tensions on Liability-Driven Investment Funds, Directors urged the authorities to continue to closely monitor NBFIs, work toward closing data gaps, and improve the supervision of these institutions, including by contributing to international efforts in this area.
Directors agreed that the Netherlands should continue to use its ample fiscal space to invest in its medium-term challenges with a view to enhancing economic and social resilience, while also contributing to external rebalancing. They welcomed spending and policies, including under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan, to advance the green and digital transitions and to tackle structural challenges in housing, labor markets, capital taxation, and the education system, as well as support R&D. Upskilling and policies to improve female labor participation will be particularly important.
It is expected that the next Article IV consultation with the Netherlands will be held on the standard 12-month cycle.
The Netherlands: Selected Economic Indicators, 2021–2024
(Percent change, unless otherwise indicated)
Contribution to GDP growth.
In percent of potential GDP.
The Netherlands: Selected Economic Indicators, 2021–2024
(Percent change, unless otherwise indicated)
| 2021 | 2022 Proj. | 2023 Proj. | 2024 Proj. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National accounts (percent change) | |||||
| Gross domestic product | 4.9 | 4.2 | 0.6 | 1.2 | |
| Private consumption | 3.6 | 5.7 | 0.8 | 1.3 | |
| Public consumption | 5.2 | 0.6 | 3.1 | 2.3 | |
| Gross fixed investment | 3.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 1.5 | |
| Total domestic demand | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 1.6 | |
| Exports of goods and nonfactor services | 5.4 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | |
| Imports of goods and nonfactor | |||||
| services | 4.4 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.8 | |
| Net foreign balance1 | 1.3 | 1.3 | -0.9 | -0.3 | |
| Output gap (percent of potential output) | -1.1 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | |
| Prices, wages, and employment | |||||
| Consumer price index (HICP) | 2.8 | 11.6 | 4.8 | 3.9 | |
| GDP deflator | 2.5 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 4.0 | |
| Hourly compensation (manufacturing) | 0.2 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 3.5 | |
| Unit labor costs (manufacturing) | -4.8 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | |
| Employment (percent) | |||||
| Unemployment rate (ILO definition) | 4.2 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.2 | |
| NAIRU | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | |
| External trade (percent of GDP) | |||||
| Merchandise balance | 7.3 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 6.0 | |
| Current account balance | 7.2 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 6.1 | |
| General government accounts (percent of GDP) | |||||
| Revenue | 44.0 | 44.0 | 43.8 | 43.3 | |
| Expenditure | 46.6 | 45.0 | 46.6 | 45.1 | |
| Net lending/borrowing | -2.6 | -1.0 | -2.8 | -1.8 | |
| Primary balance | -2.2 | -0.9 | -3.0 | -1.9 | |
| Structural balance2 | 1.6 | 0.1 | -2.1 | -2.4 | |
| Structural primary balance2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | -1.6 | -1.9 | |
| General government gross debt | 52.3 | 48.3 | 48.5 | 47.9 | |
Contribution to GDP growth.
In percent of potential GDP.
The Netherlands: Selected Economic Indicators, 2021–2024
(Percent change, unless otherwise indicated)
| 2021 | 2022 Proj. | 2023 Proj. | 2024 Proj. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National accounts (percent change) | |||||
| Gross domestic product | 4.9 | 4.2 | 0.6 | 1.2 | |
| Private consumption | 3.6 | 5.7 | 0.8 | 1.3 | |
| Public consumption | 5.2 | 0.6 | 3.1 | 2.3 | |
| Gross fixed investment | 3.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 1.5 | |
| Total domestic demand | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 1.6 | |
| Exports of goods and nonfactor services | 5.4 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | |
| Imports of goods and nonfactor | |||||
| services | 4.4 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.8 | |
| Net foreign balance1 | 1.3 | 1.3 | -0.9 | -0.3 | |
| Output gap (percent of potential output) | -1.1 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | |
| Prices, wages, and employment | |||||
| Consumer price index (HICP) | 2.8 | 11.6 | 4.8 | 3.9 | |
| GDP deflator | 2.5 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 4.0 | |
| Hourly compensation (manufacturing) | 0.2 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 3.5 | |
| Unit labor costs (manufacturing) | -4.8 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | |
| Employment (percent) | |||||
| Unemployment rate (ILO definition) | 4.2 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.2 | |
| NAIRU | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | |
| External trade (percent of GDP) | |||||
| Merchandise balance | 7.3 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 6.0 | |
| Current account balance | 7.2 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 6.1 | |
| General government accounts (percent of GDP) | |||||
| Revenue | 44.0 | 44.0 | 43.8 | 43.3 | |
| Expenditure | 46.6 | 45.0 | 46.6 | 45.1 | |
| Net lending/borrowing | -2.6 | -1.0 | -2.8 | -1.8 | |
| Primary balance | -2.2 | -0.9 | -3.0 | -1.9 | |
| Structural balance2 | 1.6 | 0.1 | -2.1 | -2.4 | |
| Structural primary balance2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | -1.6 | -1.9 | |
| General government gross debt | 52.3 | 48.3 | 48.5 | 47.9 | |
Contribution to GDP growth.
In percent of potential GDP.
Title page
KINGDOM OF THE NETHERLANDS—THE NETHERLANDS
STAFF REPORT FOR THE 2022 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION
February 8, 2023
KEY ISSUES
Context. The Dutch economy was more resilient than its peers during and after the pandemic. Reflecting the prevalence of telecommuting and strong fiscal support, the economy experienced a less severe recession followed by a more robust recovery than in the rest of the euro area, with no scarring expected. The labor market is tight with a low unemployment rate and high vacancies, although wage growth has so far been moderate. After hitting a record high in September, consumer price inflation eased to 11 percent in December driven by lower energy prices, while core inflation increased to 8.4 percent y/y. The economy appears to be overheating. The war in Ukraine is posing new challenges albeit the terms of trade shock has been smaller than for the rest of the euro area.
Outlook and Risks. Growth is projected at 4.2 percent in 2022 and 0.6 percent in 2023, as external demand wanes and high inflation hurts consumption but supported by fiscal policy. With the activation of the energy price cap, headline inflation is projected to fall from 11.6 percent in 2022 to 4.8 percent in 2023, while core inflation is forecasted to increase from 5.5 percent to 7.2 percent over the same period. Downside risks dominate and stem mainly from further increases in energy prices and energy supply disruptions, as well as lower external demand and a severe correction in the housing market.
Key Policy Recommendations
Fiscal Policy
For 2023, fiscal policy should focus on providing support to those in need and ensuring energy security, while maintaining a non-expansionary or mildly contractionary fiscal stance that aligns with monetary policy in the fight against inflation. Additional fiscal measures need to be specified to secure such a stance.
Fiscal policy should remain flexible, given high uncertainty. Automatic stabilizers should provide a first line of response to adverse scenarios. However, a negative supply shock could still necessitate a greater fiscal adjustment compared to the baseline as inflation would rise, while a negative demand shock could call for a smaller fiscal adjustment.
Over the medium term, continued focus on the climate transition, policies to alleviate skill shortages and boost labor participation and productivity should further improve resilience and reduce the external surplus, while they remain affordable given substantial fiscal space.
Financial Sector Policies
Continued monitoring of financial sector vulnerabilities is warranted, reflecting risks from the cooling of a richly valued housing market, the energy crisis weighing on the debt servicing capacity of borrowers and the tightening of financial conditions.
Macroprudential policies should avoid a pro-cyclical stance in view of a fluid macro-financial environment and a possibly sharper turn in the housing cycle. Capital buffers should be released if financial stability risks materialize. Once more clarity about the outlook resumes, the creation of additional capital buffers should be evaluated if the financial cycle continues to strengthen.
Addressing risks among non-bank financial institutions will require heightened vigilance but also the closure of data gaps and the advancement of comprehensive macroprudential policy frameworks specifically targeted at the sector, also by contributing to international efforts in this area.
Structural Policies
Continued progress in tackling labor market duality would help reduce skill shortages and increase resilience.
Continued investment in energy security, green transition, and digital technologies would also help enhance resilience and productivity growth. On energy supply, the Netherlands can play an important role in bolstering energy security of other EU countries in an emergency, given domestic production, a developed gas network and increased import capacity.
The authorities should enhance their carbon taxation to help achieve their ambitious emission reduction goals. Climate adaptation could be further strengthened by focusing government actions on adaptation with large positive externalities.
Approved By
Laura Papi (EUR) and Stephan Danninger (SPR)
Discussions took place during November 28—December 9, 2022. The mission team comprised B. Akitoby (head), S. Armendariz, A. Geis, and A. Myrvoda (all EUR), and was assisted by Y. Chen and M. Evio (both EUR). M. Louis joined the mission in the last couple of days to moderate the press conference and assist in media relations. C. Chen, K. Kirabaeva, E. Massetti, T. Tim (all FAD), and G. Dolphin (EU) joined the mission virtually for the meetings on climate change policies. Mr. P. Hilbers and Ms. C. Eijking (both OED) participated in some of the meetings. The team met with De Nederlandsche Bank President Klaas Knot, Finance Minister Sigrid Kaag, State Secretary Marnix van Rij, and other officials from the Ministries of Finance, the Interior and Kingdom Relations, Social Affairs and Employment, Economic Affairs and Climate Policy, De Nederlandsche Bank, other government entities, and the Single Supervisory Mechanism; representatives of labor unions and employers, and representatives of private sector institutions.
Contents
CONTEXT AND RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
OUTLOOK AND RISKS
POLICY DISCUSSIONS
A. Fiscal Policy to Manage the Cost-of-Living Crisis and Aggregate Demand
B. Energy Security and Climate Policy: Tradeoffs and Synergies
C. Housing and Financial Stability
D. Additional Structural Policies to Enhance Economic and Social Resilience
STAFF APPRAISAL
FIGURES
1. Energy Capacity and Sources
2. High Frequency Indicators
3. Inflation
4. Labor Market Indicators
5. Public Sector Accounts
6. Credit Developments
7. Financial Sector Developments
8. External Position
9. Fiscal Policy
10. Housing Market Valuation and Momentum
11. Internet Access and Digitalization
12. Economic Activity
13. Labor Market
14. Fiscal Developments
15. Financial Sector Developments
16. External Sector Developments
TABLES
1. Medium-Term Macroeconomic Framework, 2019–28
2a. General Government Statement of Operations, 2019–28 (Percent of GDP)
2b. General Government Statement of Operations, 2019–28 (Billions of Euros)
2c. General Government Integrated Balance Sheet, 2013–21 (Percent of GDP)
3. External Sector, 2019–28
4. Monetary Survey, 2015–2021
5. Financial Soundness Indicators, 2015–2021
ANNEXES
I. Measures to Mitigate the Impact of High Cost of Living and Energy Security
II. External Sector Assessment
III. Risk Assessment Matrix
IV. Public Debt Sustainability Analysis
V. Past IMF Policy Recommendations
VI. FSAP Recommendations
VII. Groningen Gas Field
VIII. CCyB Adjustment in the Context of the EU Macroprudential Framework Review
IX. Capital Taxation
X. Efforts to Tackle Transnational Aspects of Corruption
Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country’s economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.
At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chairman of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country’s authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found here: http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm.
Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country’s economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.
At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chairman of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country’s authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found here: http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm.
