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IMF Country Report No. 23/90

REPUBLIC OF CONGO

POVERTY REDUCTION AND GROWTH STRATEGY

February 2023

This paper on the Republic of Congo was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the Republic of Congo. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on December 21, 2022.

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© 2023 International Monetary Fund

Preface

Following the presidential election of 20 March 2016, our country resolutely embarked on the march towards development that continues today. In all likelihood, this process will continue for another ten years to enable the Congo to join the circle of emerging countries. And, perhaps, another ten years will be required to bring the Congo into the sphere of development. This long march requires action planning, conceived as a voluntarist process of defining objectives to be achieved over time and underpinned by a relevant definition of strategies, a consistent mobilisation, and an optimal allocation of resources.

The National Development Plan (NDP) 2022-2026, which is the result of the social project shared by a large majority of Congolese in the presidential election of 21 March 2021, is therefore an important reference tool, dedicated to the continuation of our march towards development.

In the light of previous planning experiences, specially the NDPs 2012-2016 and 2018-2022, strategic choices have been necessary. The NDP 2022-2026 is no exception to this rule. The first choice made is that of the development paradigm: the all-economic for the all-social. In other words, it is necessary, above all, to build a solid economy in order to satisfy social expectations. It is this economy, which we want to be strong, diversified, and resilient, that will serve social progress for all.

The second option adopted concerns the priority given to six sectors, namely agriculture in the broad sense, industry, special economic zones, tourism, the digital economy, and real estate development, which constitute the pillars of the construction of a strong, diversified, and resilient economy within the framework of our NDP.

It remains that such an enterprise cannot prosper, in a sustainable manner, without peace, national unity, security for all and stable institutions. Similarly, sustainable development would be a vain incantation without good governance, improvement of the business climate, effective support and development of the private sector and protection of the environment.

For a prosperous and dynamic economy, generated by the implementation of the NDP 2022-2026, it is necessary to improve the quality of human capital, health and social protection for all, and the provision of water and electricity to households, the improvement of living conditions and the easy movement of people and goods, as a social dividend of the implementation of the national development plan.

More globally, this plan is expected to achieve average annual GDP growth of over 4% and 7% for non-oil activities. This will also result in a decrease in the level of poverty and a sharp reduction in the unemployment rate (6.5% in 2026 against 11.4% in 2021).

Today, the world is uncertain. Several risks tend to jeopardise global economic stability. The same threats weigh on the development of the national economy. The NDP 2022-2026 offers the advantage of identifying the perceptible apprehensions and providing measures to mitigate them.

Above all, the success of the NDP depends on the country's ability to mobilise national and international funding and to implement all the programmes and projects selected with rigour.

It is therefore important to communicate widely, both inside and outside the country, on the ambitions pursued within the framework of the NDP, and to ensure meticulous monitoring and evaluation of the implementation of all the programmes and projects of this development plan.

Together, let us continue the march towards development, with a strong, diversified, and resilient economy for inclusive growth, sustainable and irreversible development.

May our people mobilise even more and persevere, more than usual, in their commitment to the proper and successful implementation of the NDP 2022- 2026, a guarantee of a better and more promising future.

Brazzaville, le 14 JAN 2022

Denis SASSOU N’GUESSO.-

Président de la République du Conga, Chef de l’Etat.

Overview

On 21 March 2021, Congolese people renewed their confidence in the President of the Republic, His Excellency Mr Denis SASSOU-NGUESSO, following the presidential election, with a turnout of 67.55% and 88.40% of the vote.

Through this vote, Congolese people have adhered to the President of the Republic's social project, entitled “Together, let us continue the march". This social project is based on nine axes, themselves structured into three poles of governance, namely: institutional and systemic governance; attractive economic and financial governance; and social and solidarity-based governance.

With this in mind, in his inaugural speech on 16 April 2021, the President of the Republic, Head of State, instructed the Government to transform the vision and commitments contained in his social plan into an action programme. In the same vein, the Head of State instructed the Government to submit to Parliament a new five-year development plan, starting from 1 January 2022, in line with the social project approved by the people.

The NDP 2022-2026, which draws lessons from the implementation of the last two NDPs (2012-2016 and 2018-2022), reflects the President of the Republic's guidelines on the economic and financial governance of our country and the diversification of the Congolese economy, which is necessary for the emergence of a non-oil industrial sector. It also considers the recommendations contained in the CEMAC economic and financial reform programme (PREF- CEMAC) on the structural transformation of national economies.

The aim is to build a strong, diversified, and resilient economy. To achieve this, the new NDP is based on six pillars that constitute growth-generating activities: agriculture in the broad sense, industry, special economic zones, tourism, the digital economy, and real estate.

The effective implementation of the NDP 2022-2026 requires quality basic infrastructure.

Notwithstanding the progress already made in this area, water, electricity and roads will receive special attention, and will thus form part of the social dividend expected from the NDP. The same applies to the business environment and good governance, which are determining factors in the attractiveness and competitiveness of our economy. In this respect, the institutional reforms undertaken by the Government in recent years have enabled our country to have an arsenal for monitoring good governance and the fight against corruption.

The structural reforms initiated will be carried out in tandem with the development of human capital, which is the nation's primary asset. To this end, a major effort will be made to improve the quality of our education system and our health services throughout the country.

The health crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, which occurred in 2020, still dominates the international context at the time of the adoption of this NDP. At the national level, the 2022- 2026 NDP comes at a time of gradual recovery of economic activities and the restoration of relations of trust with our main public and private creditors. The efforts made to clean up and consolidate public finances, and the prospect of signing an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for access to an extended credit facility to support the government's economic and financial programme, are favourable elements for the implementation of the NDP.

Ultimately, the NDP 2022-2026 constitutes the programmatic framework of reference for government action to continue the march towards development.

In a rapidly changing world with many uncertainties, the success of the NDP 2022-2026 depends above all and to a large extent on our ability to work together in unity, discipline, and peace.

I therefore urge all the actors concerned, particularly the public administrations, the elected representatives of the people, the national and foreign private sector, civil society, and development partners, to become effectively involved in the implementation of the new plan, with a view to guaranteeing its full success and achieving the emergence of the Congo.

Ultimately, the NDP 2022-2026 constitutes the programmatic framework of reference for government action to continue the march towards development.

In a rapidly changing world with many uncertainties, the success of the NDP 2022-2026 depends above all and to a large extent on our ability to work together in unity, discipline, and peace.

I therefore urge all the actors concerned, particularly the public administrations, the elected representatives of the people, the national and foreign private sector, civil society, and development partners, to become effectively involved in the implementation of the new plan, with a view to guaranteeing its full success and achieving the emergence of the Congo.

Preamble

When the President of the Republic, Head of State, announced in his solemn investiture speech to the supreme magistracy on 16 April 2021, before the Parliament, the realisation of a new National Development Plan (NDP) 2022-2026 in relation to his political commitment contained in his social project “Together, let's continue the march”, it was up to the government team installed, a few weeks later, to get down to work.

It was then that, within the framework of a particular procedure, a new structure was set up by decree 2021-347 of 6 July 2021, the “Economic and Social Policy Task Force".

Chaired by the personal representative of the President of the Republic, appointed by Decree No. 2021-304 of 25 May 2021, the Task Force has provided guidance to all the administrations that have drawn up the new NDP under the coordination of the minister in charge of planning.

It is worth noting, and this is also a new fact, that the technical work was carried out exclusively by executives from the ministerial departments and national experts.

A broadly participatory approach was followed, though, on the one hand, thematic workshops, involving representatives of institutions such as the Parliament as well as those of the various bodies of the consultative councils, structures of civil society and the private sector, technical and financial partners, and on the other hand, a series of meetings of the Minister of Planning with the top officials of the said entities.

The reflection resulted in a clear and pertinent choice to build a plan which, in many respects, is different from the previous ones, called the second-generation plan.

Indeed, this NDP differs from the others in that it retains only one field of concentration, namely the diversification of the economy built strictly around six strategic pillars.

Moreover, the innovative character of this approach lies in its vocation to integrate all social and environmental concerns.

Finally, it is clearly stated that it is from the creation of wealth through various economic activities that the country will have the means to resolve, as it expands, the social problems facing the nation.

It cannot be otherwise.

Growth as such only has meaning and interest if it is primarily dedicated to improving the living conditions of the people as well as stimulating the economy through a progressive qualification of human resources, a constant reduction of social disparities and poverty.

There is no doubt that the dynamism and interaction of the six strategic pillars that form the core of the NDP will create jobs in all sectors of the economy.

It should be pointed out that the implementation of the NDP is reserved solely for the ministries involved in the programmes selected in the six growth-generating pillars through a precise and realistic financing scheme.

It should also be stressed that the coordination of the implementation of the NDP and the supervision of the monitoring and evaluation system are entrusted to the Prime Minister, Head of Government.

Lastly, it is worth highlighting the role of the Economic and Social Policy Task Force, which is responsible for submitting an annual performance report on the implementation of the NDP to the Prime Minister, Head of Government, and the President of the Republic, Head of State.

In fact, the process of developing the new plan was not only complex, but also intense, as the expected result had to be produced in a relatively short period of time.

In this context, the Congolese managers and experts showed exemplary efficiency in completing this remarkable work in four months.

All in all, the NDP 2022-2026 is an intellectual and technical production, of fine workmanship, made in Congo, of which we can be proud.

Furthermore, the development partners who have provided us with considerable logistical and financial support are to be congratulated.

I would therefore like to express my sincere thanks to all the stakeholders for the immensity and quality of the work accomplished, and to acknowledge the contribution of the various development partners who have made a significant contribution to the production, within the required timeframe, of the NDP 2022-2026 “A strong, diversified and resilient economy for inclusive growth and irreversible sustainable development".

Table of Contents

  • Preface

  • Overview

  • Preamble

  • Table of Contents

  • List of tables

  • List of graphics

  • Acronyms and abbreviations: French and English

  • Executive Summary

  • GENERAL PRESENTATION

  • PART I: REVIEW OF RECENT DEVELOPMENT BENCHMARKS AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC OF CONGO

    • Chapter 1: Overall assessment of the NDPs 2012-2016 and 2018-2022

      • 1.1. Overall evaluation of the NDP 2012-2016

        • 1.1.1. Macroeconomic performance of the NDP 2012-2016

        • 1.1.2. Social performance of the NDP 2012-2016

        • 1.1.3. PND 2012-2016 Performance in the strategic areas of the NDP 2012-2016

      • 1.2. Overall assessment of the NDP 2018-2022

        • 1.2.1. Macroeconomic performance of the NDP 2018-2022

        • 1.2.2. Social performance of the NDP 2018-2022

      • 1.3. Recommendations for the development and implementation of the NDP 2022-2026

        • 1.3.1. On the development process

    • Chapter 2: Diagnostic analysis of the socio-economic situation in Congo

      • 5.1. 2.1. Demographic and social status

        • 2.1.1. Demographic trends

        • 2.1.2. Employment

        • 2.1.3. Poverty and inequality

        • 2.1.4. Access to basic social services

      • 5.2. 2.2. Economic and financial situation

        • 2.2.1. Global, regional and sub-regional trends

        • 2.2.2. Growth trajectory of the Congolese economy

        • 2.2.3. Competitiveness of the economy

        • 2.2.4. Inflation

        • 2.2.5. Financing the economy

        • 2.2.6. Public finances and debt

        • 2.2.7. Foreign trade

      • 5.3. 2.3. Challenges in laying the foundations for a strong, diversified and resilient economy

  • PART II: NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY

    • Chapter 3: Strategic direction and objectives of the NDP 2022-2026

      • 5.4. 3.1. Strategic orientation

      • 5.5. 3.2. NDP objectives

    • Chapter 4: Strategic pillars of the NDP 2022-2026

      • 4.1. Large Pillar 1: Development of agriculture in a wider spectrum

        • Strategic and specific objectives

      • 4.2. Pillar 2: Industry development

        • Issues and challenges

        • Strategic and specific goals

      • 4.3. Pillar 3: Development of special economic zones

        • Issues and challenges

        • Strategic and specific objectives

      • 4.4. Pillar 4: Tourism development

        • Issues and challenges

      • 4.5. Pillar 5: Development of the digital economy

        • Key issues and challenges

        • Strategic and specific goals

      • 4.6. Pillar 6: Property development

        • Issues and challenges

        • Strategic and specific goals

    • Chapter 5 : Areas of support

      • 5.6. Peace, security and political stability

      • 5.7. Good governance

      • 5.8. Support and development of the private sector

      • 5.9. Economic growth and environmental protection

    • Chapter 6: Social dividend and strengthening basic infrastructure

      • 6.1. Human Capital

        • 6.1.1. Education

        • 6.1.2 Health

        • 6.1.3 Social protection

      • 6.2 Strengthening basic infrastructure

        • 6.2.1 Water, electricity and sanitation

        • 6.2.2 Roads

  • PART III : MACROECONOMIC

  • IMPLICATIONS

    • Chapter 7 : Macroeconomic outlook

      • 7.1. Assumptions underlying the forecasts

      • 7.2. Growth and investment rates

      • 7.3. Inflation trends

      • 7.4. Resources

      • 7.5. Evolution of the current account

      • 7.6. Developments in the monetary situation

      • 7.7. Impact of growth on employment and poverty

        • 7.7.1. Reducing unemployment

        • 7.7.2. Poverty reduction

    • Chapter 8 : Risk Assesment

      • 8.1. Risks related to the international situation

      • 8.2. Economic and financial risks

      • 8.3. Environmental and climatic risks

      • 8.4. Health risks

      • 8.5. Risks related to low stakeholder ownership

      • 8.6. Risks and mitigation measures

  • PART IV: TOOLS FOR OPERATIONALISING THE 2022-2026 NDP

    • Chapter 9: Implementation Framework

      • 9.1. Overview

      • 9.2. Implementing components

      • 9.3. Implementation structure of the NDP 2022-2026

      • 9.4. Implementation of strategy

    • Chapter 10: Financing Scheme and Implementation of the Programme Budget

      • 10.1. Funding scheme

        • 10.1.1. Cost of the NDP

        • 10.1.2. Financing the NDP

        • 10.1.3. Financing constraints of the Congolese economy

        • 10.1.4. Financing strategy

        • 10.1.5. Prior reforms

      • 10.2. Program mode budgeting

        • 10.2.1. Principles

        • 10.2.2. Tools and mechanisms

        • 10.2.3. Objectives of the programme budget in the implementation of the NDP 2022-2026

    • Chapter 11: Monitoring and evaluation and communication strategy

      • 11.1. Monitoring and evaluation

        • 11.1.1. Monitoring and evaluation of programmes and actions

        • 11.1.2. Institutional mechanism for monitoring and evaluation of the NDP 2022-2026

      • 11.2. Communication strategy

        • 11.2.1. Objective of the communication plan

        • 11.2.2. Content of the communication plan

  • CONCLUSION

Table of tables

  • Table 1: Changes in poverty indices by strata between 2005 and 2011

  • Table 2: Evolution of multidimensional poverty between 2011-2012 and 2014-2015

  • Table 3: Status of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in the Republic of Congo

  • Table 4: Evolution of the annual growth rate of GDP in the secondary sector from 2014 to 2020 (%)

  • Table 5: Evolution of the index of economic freedom and its components

  • Table 6: Evolution of domestic credit of banks (in billions of FCFA)

  • Table 7: Growth ( in %) in the NDP scenario

  • Table 8: Investment rate ( in %) in the NDP scenario

  • Table 9: Own resources in the NDP scenario

  • Table 10: Current account balance in the NDP scenario

  • Table 11: Monetary situation in the NDP scenario

  • Table 12: Risks and mitigation measures

  • Table 13: NDP financing plan (in billions of FCFA)

Table of graphics

  • Figure 1 : Age pyramid of the population of Congo 2020

  • Figure 2: Representation of women by business lines in 2018

  • Figure 3: Epidemiological situation and share of fully/partially vaccinated persons

  • Figure 4: Evolution of the GDP growth rate from 2009 to 2020 (%)

  • Figure 5: Evolution of the GDP growth rate (optical offer) from 2014 to 2020

  • Figure 6: Evolution of GDP growth, demand side from 2009 to 2020

  • Figure 7: Evolution of GDP growth in the agricultural sector (in the broad sense) from 2012 to 2020

  • Figure 8: Evolution of the annual growth rate of GDP in the tourism sector from 2014 to 2016

  • Figure 9: Annual change in inward FDI between 2015 and 2020 (in millions of US dollars)

  • Figure 10: Evolution of the inflation rate from 2014 to 2020

  • Figure 11: Annual evolution of the amounts raised on the public securities market between 2017 and May 2021 (in millions of FCFA)

  • Figure 12: Annual evolution of amounts collected and loans granted by microfinance between 2017 and 2020 (in billions of francs CFA)

  • Figure 13: Evolution of public revenue and expenditure (in % of GDP)

  • Figure 14: Evolution of the debt ratio from 2014 to 2021 (in percentage)

  • Figure 15: Evolution of balance of payments indicators ( in % of GDP)

  • Figure 16: Evolution of the poverty rate over the period 2020-2026 by scenarios

  • Figure 17: Evolution of the poverty rate over the period 2020-2026 by scenarios

Acronyms and abbreviations: French and English

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Executive Summary

Foundations

1. The 2022-2026 NDP is based on the tradition of development planning in the Congo and on the President of the Republic's social project, “Together, let us continue the march". This project reflects a vision of the process of building a society that ensures social progress for all, in solidarity and peace, through the creation of conditions for inclusive growth, based on a strong economy.

2. The NDP 2022-2026 is enriched by the solutions advocated in the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), in the African Union (AU) Agenda 2063, and in other programmes, both regional, notably the African Continental Free Trade Area (ACFTA), and sub-regional, the CEMAC economic and financial reform programme (PREF-CEMAC).

3. The NDP 2022-2026 is developed on the basis of the following guiding principles: (i) priority to the economy with the development of strategic activities likely to make it strong, diversified and resilient, (ii) translation of the strong, diversified and resilient economy into a social dividend and the strengthening of development infrastructures, (iii) implementation of the NDP focused on the expected results, (iv) ownership of the NDP by the public and private actors involved in its implementation, (v) empowerment of the actors and beneficiaries of the NDP, and (vi) reconciliation of economic growth with the protection of the environment

4. The preparation of the NDP 2022-2026 takes into account the evaluation of the last two NDPs (2012-2016 and 2018-2022) and the recommendations that resulted from it. The evaluation revealed mixed results and lessons were learned. The recommendations relate to both the development and implementation of the NDP 2022-2026.

Background

5. The 2022-2026 NDP is set in a context characterised: at the international level, by the Covid- 19 health crisis which plunged the world economy into a recession (-3.1% growth rate in 2020). In recent months, the world economy has returned to growth, which, according to the IMF's October 2021 projections, should be 5.9% in 2021 and 4.9% in 2022; at the sub-regional level, by the implementation of the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa's (PREF- CEMAC) economic and financial reform programme and by second generation programmes supported by the IMF; at national level, by a multidimensional economic, financial and health crisis. The 2022-2026 NDP, the medium-term economic and financial programme (2022-2024) supported by the IMF and development partners, and the response plan against COVID-19, are elements of the response to this crisis. At the same time, several favourable elements have come together. These include: (i) the viability of Congo's debt restored, (ii) the rise in oil prices, (iii) the political stability, the climate of peace and security that followed the end of the rebellion in the Pool department.

Socio-economic diagnosis

Social Status

6. The NDP 2022-2026 is based on a diagnostic analysis of the country's recent social and economic situation.

7. According to the International Labour Office, in 2020 unemployment affected 10.3% of the total active population, compared with 9.6% in 2019. Unemployment is increasingly affecting young people between 15 and 24 years of age, who are generally the first-time job seekers. The unemployment rate in this age group was estimated at 21.6%, compared with 6.7% for the over- 25s in 2019. The poverty rate in Congo according to the World Bank was 52.5% in 2020.

8. Based on WHO (World Health Organisation) statistics, the infant mortality rate today is 34.9‰. It is 47.8 deaths per 1000 live births for children under 5 years of age. It is declining, after peaking at 114 deaths per 1000 live births in 2000.

9. The Congo's education system is characterised by gross enrolment ratios (GERs) that exceed 100% (106.1% in primary education in 2019-2020). However, primary education shows poor performance in terms of learning achievement: 66.6% of pupils do not reach the “sufficient” threshold in mathematics and 21% do not reach it in French.

10. Access to basic social services remains a concern. In 2019, only 48.3% of the population had access to electricity and 68% to drinking water. A quarter of the population has a modern private toilet. The rest use precarious sanitation facilities.

Economic and financial situation

11. Economic activity contracted in 2020, with GDP growth estimated at -6.2%, mainly due to the impacts of Covid-19 and the collapse of world oil prices. The agricultural sector grew slowly and more slowly than expected. It averaged 1.6% annually between 2018 and 2020. The industrial sector recorded a decline in activity of -3.5% in 2020. Tourism recorded an annual average growth of -4.4% over the period 2018-2020.

12. Government revenues, dominated by oil revenues, fell sharply following the collapse of oil prices from mid-2014. They fell from 37.5% of GDP in 2014 to 12.3% of GDP in 2020. Oil revenues, even though they have fallen sharply in nominal terms (2 456.0 billion in 2014 compared with 651.0 billion in 2020), still account for an annual average of 57.1% of total state revenues over the period 2014-2019.

13. The debt ratio increased significantly after the completion point of the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries initiative in 2010, from 42.3% of GDP in 2014 to 104.1% of GDP in 2020. This increase is, in the first place, the result of a drastic fall in GDP, which has led to an increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio. At the same time, the rapid expansion of public investment in infrastructure, as well as the external borrowing associated with the financing of this investment, has contributed to an increase in the level of indebtedness.

14. According to the IMF staff mission, as of September 2021, debt sustainability has been restored. Significant vulnerabilities remain, given the risks of illiquidity (defaults) and low resilience to adverse global oil price shocks. Public debt is expected to decline to 83.3% of GDP by end-2021.

15. Before the Covid-19 pandemic, the current account balance as a percentage of GDP was already in deficit (-39.0% in 2015 and -50.3% in 2016). The external current account as a percentage of GDP was balanced in 2020, thanks to favourable developments in the oil sector and the compression of imports linked to weak growth and the sharp reduction in public and private investment.

Challenges ahead

16. The diagnostic analysis of the socio-economic situation shows that the Congo still faces many challenges.

On the economic front, these include (i) better withstand fluctuations in commodity prices (particularly oil), (ii) create the conditions for sustainable and inclusive growth, (iii) improve the business climate in order to stimulate private investment and attract foreign direct investment (FDI), (iv) develop basic infrastructure (energy, communications, telecommunications, …) for the competitiveness of the Congolese economy, (v) join the trajectory of irreversible sustainable development for good.

On the social level:

  • In education: (i) strengthen the quality, capacities and efficiency of the system, (ii) manage human resources rationally and efficiently in all their components (recruitment, assignments, continuous training, careers, etc.).

  • In the area of health (i) develop the health system, (ii) strengthen human capacities, (iii) manage the system efficiently, (iv) improve access to health services.

  • In the area of electricity, water and sanitation (i) strengthen the production, transport and distribution capacities of water and electricity and (ii) improve access to water and electricity in peri-urban and rural areas, (iii) continue sanitation work in all the country's towns.

Strategic orientation

17. The NDP 2022-2026 is based on a new approach to development that is pragmatic and therefore non-ideological. It is based on an analysis of the country's (economic and social) situation and the need to provide concrete, relevant and appropriate responses. Based on the observation that the Congo is an underdeveloped country, its national development plan has the following fundamental choices:

  • Building foundations for irreversible sustainable development.

  • Focus the NDP's actions on the economy to make it stronger, and thus give the State more consistent means of action to meet the main national challenges.

  • Give priority to the development of economic activities within our reach, which are major creators of added value and jobs.

  • Attract private capital and encourage its deployment in the various sectors of the national economy, mainly in the priority activities of the NDP.

  • Rely on the private sector in general for the financing and implementation, alongside the State, on programs and projects set out in by the NDP.

  • Ensure a good redistribution of national wealth through, in specifically in the development of human capital and basic social services.

Overall objective

18. The NDP 2022-2026 aims to build a strong, diversified and resilient economy. To achieve this, it relies on growth-generating activities such as agriculture in the broad sense, industry, special economic zones, tourism, the digital economy and real estate. The overall objective of this NDP underpins another objective which is to consolidate the social dividend and strengthen the basic infrastructure for development.

Strategic pillars of the NDP

19. The NDP 2022-2026 is structured around six strategic pillars: (i) development of agriculture in the broad sense, (ii) development of industry, (iii) development of special economic zones (SEZs), (iv) development of tourism, (v) development of the digital economy, (vi) real estate promotion.

Areas of support

20. In order to ensure the proper implementation of the NDP 2022-2026, a support system is needed. This mainly concerns: (i) the preservation of peace, security and political stability, (ii) the practice of good governance, (iii) the attraction of private investment and (iv) the protection of the environment.

Social dividend and strengthening of basic infrastructure

21. The implementation of the six strategic pillars of the NDP mentioned above should enable the state to have the necessary resources for the development of education, health, social protection and basic social services infrastructure. The impact of this involvement is based on a correlation between the expected effects on the social dividend and the actual achievement of the targets for each Sustainable Development Goal (SDG).

Macroeconomic and social impacts

22. Over the period 2022-2026, Congo would record an average growth rate of 4.6%. Real GDP growth would rise from 2.5% in 2022 to 4.0% in 2026, with a peak of 8.4% in 2024, in relation to the increase in oil production.

23. Real non-oil GDP would evolve at a sustained and continuous pace, of greater magnitude. Growth would range from 3.5% in 2022 to 10.7% in 2026, or an average annual growth rate of 7.0%.

24. The total investment rate would rise from 19.9% of GDP in 2022 to 37.6% in 2026. Private investment would be the main driver of growth over this period.

25. The implementation of the NDP should result in a reduction in unemployment from 11.4% in 2022 to 6.5% in 2026. In 2026, the poverty rate would be 38.1%, down 14 percentage points from its 2022 level, estimated at 51.9% by the World Bank.

Risks

26. Five groups of risk factors are identified: (i) risks related to the international economic situation, (ii) national economic and financial risks, (iii) global and national health risks, (iv) environmental and climatic risks, and (v) risks related to the weak adhesion of actors. All these factors are likely to compromise the proper implementation of the NDP, if they evolve in a negative way.

NDP funding

27. The overall projected cost of implementing the NDP is eight thousand nine hundred and sixty-two billion five hundred and ninety-four million (8,962,594,000,000) CFA francs, i.e. an average annual cost of one thousand seven hundred and ninety-two billion five hundred and nineteen million eight hundred thousand (1,792,518.8) CFA francs. The share devoted to investment expenditure is eight thousand nine hundred and thirty-five billion one hundred and eighteen million (8 935 118 000 000) CFA francs. Expenditure related to the operationalisation of the NDP (communication, resource mobilisation, production of statistics and monitoring- evaluation) represents 0.31% of the total cost, i.e. twenty-seven billion four hundred and seventy-six million (27,476,000,000) CFA francs.

28. The amount of financing acquired for the NDP is 2,471 billion CFA francs, representing 27.57% of the total cost. The financing gap amounts to 6,491.59 billion CFA francs, or 72.43% of the overall cost.

29. It will be appropriate to mobilise more oil revenues, which are an important lever for financing economic diversification. Better mobilisation and allocation of these resources should benefit the 2022-2026 NDP projects.

Monitoring and evaluation

30. The monitoring and evaluation of the NDP will focus on: (i) the monitoring of the programmes and projects selected and (ii) the evaluation of the performance of the implementation of these programmes and projects.

31. The monitoring-evaluation mechanism will include, on the one hand, the strategic steering and validation bodies and, on the other hand, the bodies responsible for coordinating links between the various development actors.

32. The strategic steering and validation bodies are (i) the Steering Committee (COPIL), (ii) the Economic and Social Policy Task Force, (iii) the Technical Coordination (TC), (iv) the Permanent Technical Secretariat (PTS), (v) the Operational Units and (vi) the Departmental Antennas. The advisory partners support the monitoring and evaluation strategy by providing technical and financial assistance for its operationalisation.

33. The monitoring and evaluation framework of the NDP 2022-2026 is based on the principles of results-based management (RBM). Each level of results in the plan is supported by key performance indicators that track progress in achieving the results.

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