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IMF Country Report No. 23/66

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IMF Country Report No. 23/66

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IMF Country Report No. 23/66

BANGLADESH

REQUESTS FOR AN EXTENDED ARRANGEMENT UNDER THE EXTENDED FUND FACILITY, AN ARRANGEMENT UNDER THE EXTENDED CREDIT FACILITY, AND AN ARRANGEMENT UNDER THE RESILIENCE AND SUSTAINABILITY FACILITY—PRESS RELEASE; STAFF REPORT; AND STATEMENT BY THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR FOR BANGLADESH

February 2023

In the context of the Staff Report for the Request for an Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility, and Request for an Arrangement Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility, the following documents have been released and are included in this package:

  • A Press Release including a statement by the Chair of the Executive Board.

  • The Staff Report prepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board's consideration on January 30, 2023, following discussions that ended on November 9, 2022, with the officials of Bangladesh on economic developments and policies underpinning the IMF Extended Fund Facility and Extended Credit Facility arrangements as well as reform measures supporting the IMF Resilience and Sustainability Facility arrangement. Based on information available at the time of these discussions, the staff report was completed on January 13, 2022.

  • A Debt Sustainability Analysis prepared by the staffs of the IMF and International Development Association.

  • A Statement by the Executive Director for Bangladesh.

The IMF's transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information and premature disclosure of the authorities' policy intentions in published staff reports and other documents.

Copies of this report are available to the public from

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Price: $18.00 per printed copy

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© 2023 International Monetary Fund

Press Release

PRESS RELEASE

PR23/25

IMF Executive Board Approves US$3.3 Billion Under the Extended Credit Facility/Extended Fund Facility and US$1.4 Billion Under and the Resilience and Sustainability Facility for Bangladesh

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

  • The IMF Executive Board approved today Bangladesh's request for SDR 2.5 billion (about US$3.3 billion) under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangements. This approval enables the immediate disbursement of SDR 352.35 million (about US$476 million).1

  • The IMF Executive Board also approved SDR 1 billion (about US$1.4 billion) under the newly created Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). Bangladesh is the first Asian country to access the RSF.

  • The 42-month program will help preserve macroeconomic stability, protect the vulnerable, and foster inclusive and green growth. Reforms will focus on creating fiscal space to enable greater social and developmental spending; strengthening the financial sector; modernizing policy frameworks; and building climate resilience.

Washington, DC – January 30, 2023: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved 42-month ECF/EFF arrangements of SDR 2.5 billion (equivalent to 231.4 percent of quota or about US$3.3 billion), and a concurrent RSF arrangement of SDR 1 billion (equivalent to 93.8 percent of quota or about US$1.4 billion) to support Bangladesh's economic policies. Bangladesh is the first country in Asia to receive financing under the RSF. Approval of the ECF/EFF arrangements enables immediate disbursement of SDR 352.35 million (about US$476 million).1

Bangladesh's robust economic recovery from the pandemic has been interrupted by Russia's war in Ukraine, leading to a sharp widening of Bangladesh's current account deficit, depreciation of the Taka and a decline in foreign exchange reserves. The authorities have taken on a comprehensive set of measures to deal with these latest economic disruptions. The authorities recognize that in addition to tackling these immediate challenges, long-standing structural issues and vulnerabilities related to climate change will also need to be addressed to accelerate growth, attract private investment, enhance productivity, and build climate resilience.

The IMF-supported program under the ECF/EFF arrangements will help preserve macroeconomic stability and prevent disruptive adjustments to protect the vulnerable, while laying the foundations for strong, inclusive, and environmentally sustainable growth. The concurrent RSF arrangement will supplement the resources made available under the ECF/EFF to expand the fiscal space to finance climate investment priorities identified in the authorities' plans, help catalyze additional financing, and build resilience against long-term climate risks.

At the conclusion of the Executive Board's discussion, Ms. Antoinette M. Sayeh, Deputy Managing Director, and Acting Chair, made the following statement:

“Since independence, Bangladesh has made steady progress in reducing poverty and significant improvements in living standards. However, the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent Russia's war in Ukraine interrupted this long period of robust economic performance. Multiple shocks have made macroeconomic management challenging in Bangladesh.

While confronting challenges resulting from the global headwinds, the authorities need to accelerate their ambitious ref orm agenda to achieve a more resilient, inclusive, and sustainable growth. In this regard, substantial investment in human capital and infrastructure will be needed to achieve Bangladesh's aspiration to reach upper-middle income status by 2031 and meet the Sustainable and Development Goals (SDGs). The authorities recognize these challenges and also the need to tackle climate change issues, which expose the economy to large risks that could threaten macroeconomic stability.

The ECF/EFF arrangement will protect macroeconomic stability and rebuild buffers, while helping to advance the authorities' reform agenda. The implementation of the domestic revenue mobilization strategy that relies on both tax policy and revenue administration reforms will allow increasing social, development and climate spending sustainably. Fiscal reforms to strengthen the management of public finance, investment, and debt will improve spending efficiency, governance, and transparency. Reducing financial sector vulnerabilities, strengthening oversight, enhancing governance and the regulatory framework, and developing capital markets will help mobilize financing to support growth objectives.

Structural ref orms to create conducive environment to expand trade and foreign direct investment, deepening the f inancial sector, developing human capital, and improving governance to enhance the business climate are needed to lift growth potential.

Access to RSF will provide financing to support Bangladesh's climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts. The RSF ref orms will complement reforms under the ECF/EFF by improving climate investment potential, strengthening institutions and enhancing climate-spending efficiency to build resilience and catalyze additional official and private finance.”

Table 1.

Bangladesh: Selected Economic Indicators, FY2019–27 1/

article image
Sources: Bangladesh authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.

Fiscal year begins on July 1 and ends on June 30.

Includes central government's gross debt, including debt owed to the IMF, plus domestic bank borrowing by nonfinancial public sector and public enterprises' external borrowing supported by government guarantees, including short-term oil-related suppliers' credits.

Program financing (+ purchases, - repurchases) is included under the Financial Account, with consistent sign conversion.

Title Page

BANGLADESH

REQUESTS FOR AN EXTENDED ARRANGEMENT UNDER THE EXTENDED FUND FACILITY, AN ARRANGEMENT UNDER THE EXTENDED CREDIT FACILITY, AND AN ARRANGEMENT UNDER THE RESILIENCE AND SUSTAINABILITY FACILITY

January 13, 2023

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Background. Bangladesh's robust economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic was interrupted by Russia's war in Ukraine. Rising global commodity prices, supply disruptions, and slowdown in external demand have led to a sharp widening of the current account deficit, depreciation of the Taka, and the rapid decline of foreign exchange reserves. The resulting high inflation, slow growth, and stringent measures to compress demand are disproportionately impacting the poor. Heightened global uncertainties will keep the balance of payments (BoP) under pressure for some time.

Program Objectives and Modalities

ECF/EFF. The authorities, with strong support at the highest level of government, have requested an ECF/EFF arrangement to bolster the external position. Staff supports a 42-month ECF/EFF, with access at 77.1 percent of quota (SDR 822.82 million) under the ECF and 154.3 percent of quota (SDR 1,645.64 million) under the EFF. Bangladesh's risk of debt distress is low and its capacity to repay the Fund is adequate.

RSF. The authorities are concurrently requesting access to the RSF to meet large climate financing needs. Staff proposes access at SDR 1,000 million (the maximum nominal limit, 93.8 percent of quota) under the RSF, in which access at the maximum nominal limit is justified by the strength and breadth of the proposed reforms, the BoP need associated with the implementation of reform measures, and sound capacity to repay the Fund.

Program Policies. Near-term economic policies are aimed at restoring macroeconomic stability, relaxing financing constraints to prevent disruptive adjustment, and rebuilding FX reserves. The ECF/EFF program is expected to help accelerate overdue macroeconomic reforms including revenue mobilization, public sector management, and the modernization of monetary and financial systems to lay the foundations for the authorities' aspirations to reach upper middle-income status by 2031. The RSF's reform measures will complement reforms under the ECF/EFF by supporting the authorities' efforts in tackling climate change challenges and catalyzing additional finance.

Staff Views. The Letter of Intent and Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies demonstrate program ownership and appropriate policies to reach the goals of the authorities' program. The main risk to the program is limited scope to relax fiscal or monetary policy in the event of additional adverse real shocks, given narrowing fiscal space, high inflation, and reserve losses.

Approved By

Anne-Marie Gulde-Wolf (APD) and Boileau Yeyinou Loko (SPR)

Discussions were held in Dhaka during October 26 – November 9, 2022. The team included R. Anand (head), P. Sodsriwiboon, E. Liu, E. Kitsios (all APD), G. Zinabou, S. Suphachalasai (both FAD), R. Varghese (SPR), Y. Hul (ICD, joined discussions virtually), J. De (resident representative), and S. Islam (local economist). Mr. Jain (OED) participated in the discussions. The team met with Finance Minister Mr. Kamal, Bangladesh Bank Governor Mr. Talukder, Finance Secretary Ms. Yasmin, and other senior government and Bangladesh Bank officials. Staff also had productive discussions with representatives of the private sector, bilateral donors, think tanks, and development partners. G. Gamwalla-Khadivi and P. Polec (both APD) contributed to the preparation of this report.

Contents

  • CONTEXT

  • RECENT DEVELOPMENTS, OUTLOOK, AND RISKS

  • A. Recent Developments

  • B. Outlook and Risks

  • KEY ELEMENTS OF THE ECF/EFF ARRANGEMENT

  • A. Program Objectives

  • B. Fiscal Policy

  • C. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies

  • D. Financial Sector Policies

  • E. Macro-Structural Policies

  • KEY ELEMENTS OF THE RSF ARRANGEMENT

  • A. Program Objectives

  • B. Climate Change Policies

  • PROGRAM MODALITIES

  • STAFF APPRAISAL

  • BOXES

  • 1. Supporting Inclusive, Sustainable, and Green Growth in Bangladesh

  • 2. Fossil Fuel Subsidies in Bangladesh

  • FIGURES

  • 1. Recent Developments: Pressure from External Shock

  • 2. Fiscal Developments

  • 3. Monetary and Financial Market Developments

  • 4. Banking Sector Developments

  • 5. External Sector Developments

  • TABLES

  • 1. Sequencing of Reforms Under the ECF/EFF and RSF, FY23–FY26

  • 2. Selected Economic Indicators, FY2019–27

  • 3a. Balance of Payments, FY2019–27 (In millions of U.S. dollars)

  • 3b. Balance of Payments, FY2019–27 (In percent of GDP)

  • 4a. Central Government Operations, FY2019–27 (In billions of taka)

  • 4b. Central Government Operations, FY2019–27 (In percent of GDP)

  • 5. Monetary Accounts, FY2019–27

  • 6. Financial Soundness Indicators, FY2015-21

  • 7a. Proposed Schedule of Disbursement and Timing of ECF/EFF Arrangement Reviews

  • 7b. Proposed Schedule of Disbursement and Timing of RSF Arrangement Reviews

  • 8. Quantitative Performance Criteria (PC) and Indicative Targets (IT), First Two Reviews

  • 9. External Financing Requirements and Sources, FY2023–26

  • 10. Indicators of Fund Credit, FY2022–46

  • 11. Proposed Structural Benchmarks: 12-Months After Board Approval

  • 12. Proposed Reform Measures Under RSF

  • 13. Capacity Development Activities to Support Program Priorities

  • ANNEXES

  • I. External Sector Assessment

  • II. Risk Assessment Matrix

  • III. Building Climate Resilience

  • IV. GDP Rebasing and its Implications

  • V. Capacity to Repay Indicators Compared to UCT Arrangements for PRGT Countries

  • APPENDICES

  • I. Letter of Intent

  • Attachment I. Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies

  • Attachment II. Technical Memorandum of Understanding

1

SDR figures for the program are converted at the market rate of U.S. dollar per SDR on the day of program approval.

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Bangladesh: Requests for an Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility, and Request for an Arrangement Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bangladesh
Author:
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept