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IMF Country Report No. 23/29

NIGER

SELECTED ISSUES

January 2023

This Selected Issues paper on Niger was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on December 6, 2022.

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© 2023 International Monetary Fund

Title page

NIGER

SELECTED ISSUES

December 6, 2022

Approved By

The African Department

Contents

• INTRODUCTION

• THE EFFICIENCY OF SOCIAL SPENDING IN NIGER

• A. Overview of Niger's Social Indicators and Government Priorities

• B. Education Outcomes and Efficiency of Education Spending

• C. Health Outcomes and Efficiency of Health Spending

• D. An Overview of Social Protection Programs in Niger

• E. Profile, Impact and Efficiency of Social Protection and Labor

• F. Efficiency of Targeting in Social Programs

• G. Concluding Remarks and Policy Recommendations

• FIGURES

• 1. Education Expenditure and Indicators, 2001-18 and Most Recent Available Year

• 2. Efficiency Frontier in Primary and Secondary Education, Most Recent Available Year

• 3. Health Expenditure and Indicators, 2001-18 and Most Recent Available Year

• 4. Health Expenditure and Health Efficiency Frontier, Most Recent Available Year

• 5. Total Social Assistance Spending (percent of GDP), Most Recent Available Year

• 6. SPL Coverage (percent), Most Recent Available Year

• 7. SPL Adequacy (percent), Most Recent Available Year

• 8. SPL Beneficiary and Benefits Incidence (Percent), Most Recent Available Year

• 9. Impact and Efficiency of SPL (Percent), Most Recent Available Year

• References

• ANNEX

• 1. Regression Tables

• MACROECONOMIC GAINS FROM CLOSING GENDER EDUCATIONAL GAPS IN NIGER

• A. Introduction

• B. Stylized Facts

• C. Macroeconomic Gains of Reducing Gender Gaps in Education

• D. Policy Recommendations

• FIGURES

• 1. Gender Development Index (2021)

• 2. Education and Employment Outcomes (2021 or the latest)

• 3. Trends in Gender Development Index and School Enrollment

• 4. Gender Gaps in Years of Education

• 5. Simulation Results

• TABLE

• 1. Projected Gender Indicators Under the PDES 2022-26

• References

• FINANCIAL INCLUSION IN NIGER: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

• A. Benchmarking Niger Against Regional Peers

• B. Challenges of Financial Inclusion in Niger

• C. Policies to Foster Financial Inclusion in Niger

• BOXES

• 1. Concepts

• 2. BCEAO's Actions to Protect Financial Inclusion During the Pandemic

• FIGURES

• 1. The Use of Financial Services

• 2. The Service Points

• 3. Banking Sector and MFIs

• 4. Reasons of Non-Access to Credit in 2018-19

• 5. Literacy Rate of Adults

• 6. Rural Population

• 7. Financial Exclusion Factor

• 8. Informality

• 9. Mobile Banking Development and Supporting Infrastructure

• References

• THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE AND CONFLICT SHOCKS ON HOUSEHOLD WELFARE

• A. Background

• B. Stylized Facts on Shocks Experienced by Niger

• C. Estimating the Effects of Shocks on Well-Being

• D. Policies to Build Resilience and Sustain Livelihoods

• BOX

• 1. Government Adaptation Strategies Against Climate Change

• FIGURES

• 1. Socioeconomic Indicators

• 2. Importance of Agriculture Sector in the Economy

• 3. Cumulative Annual Rainfall by Season Over the Period 1901-2020

• 4. Annual Variation of Temperature and Precipitation Across Departments Over the Period 1901-2020

• 5. Natural Disasters Frequency and Consequences in the Sahel Countries, 2002-21

• 6. Number and Fatalities of Conflicts by Type, 2010-22

• 7. Evolution of Geographic Position of Conflicts

• 8. Availability of Natural Resources Over 1960-2020

• 9. Total Number of Internal Displacements

• 10. Estimates of the Effects of Climate and Conflict Shocks on Household Welfare Indicators

• 11. Distribution of AAWI Shows Poor Agriculture Capital Significancy

• 12. Access to International Concessional Climate Funds

• 13. National Determined Contribution Cost, 2021-30 (USD Billion)

• TABLES

• 1. Cumulative Variation of Climate Conditions Over 1901-2020

• 2. Regression Baseline Results

• 3. Impact of Climate and Conflict Shocks on School Failure Likelihood

• 4. Income Diversification Mitigates the Adverse Effects of Shocks

• References

• ANNEX

• 1. Descriptive Statistics of Variables

• ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND FOOD INSECURITY IN NIGER

• A. Background

• B. Methodology and Simulations

• C. Policy Recommendations

• D. A Brief Description of the Model

• FIGURES

• 1. Malnutrition Indicators, 2021 (percentage of total children under 5)

• 2. Spatial Multi-Sector Macroeconomic Model

• 3. Impacts of a 25 Percent Decrease in Agriculture Production

• 4. Cash Transfer vs Fertilizers Subsidies

• 5. Trade Liberalization vs Low Internal Mobility Cost

• FOSTERING EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION IN NIGER

• A. Introduction

• B. Stylized Facts

• C. Empirical Analysis: What Matters for Exports Diversification and Quality? An Econometric Approach

• D. Policy Implications

• FIGURES

• 1. Composition of Goods Exports

• 2. Export Diversification

• 3. Export-to-GDP Ratio

• 4. Selected Indicators of Horizontal Policies

• TABLES

• 1. Top 10 Export Destinations

• 2. Determinants of Export Diversification

• 3. Determinants of Export Quality

• References

• ANNEXES

• I. List of Countries

• II. Data Sources

• III. Descriptive Statistics