Republic of Kazakhstan: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
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International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
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This 2022 Article IV Consultation discusses that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has had modest impact on economic activity in Kazakhstan to date. Real GDP growth is projected to decline to 2.7 percent in 2022, from 4.3 percent in 2021, due mostly to temporary disruptions to oil production. Inflation has continued to rise about 19 percent, reflecting global inflation, the depreciation of the tenge, and rapid wage and credit growth. The authorities took multiple actions to preserve stability and support the economy. A key macroeconomic policy challenge being to contain inflation, the National Bank of Kazakhstan has raised its policy rate by 700 basis points since mid-2021, and indicated that further tightening may be necessary. In addition, the government established temporary export restrictions of essential goods and controls of energy and utility prices. In response to social demands and following the outbreak of the war, the government adopted a revised budget significantly expanding public spending. In 2022, the authorities announced a set of new governance and economic reforms which would address some of Kazakhstan’s main development impediments.