A. Climate Change in Liberia

3. The change in Liberia’s climate will be multidimensional. Climate change is not only about rising temperatures. Global warming also entails changes in precipitation patterns, in the frequency of extreme weather events, and in sea levels. Climate change scenarios at the country level are subject to even larger uncertainties than projections for global averages.

4. Temperatures in Liberia are likely to rise somewhat more than global averages (Figure 1). Warming in the 20^th century was less pronounced in Liberia than in the world at large through the 1970s. Since then, temperatures rose in parallel by about 0.7°C, to reach an average of 25.8°C in Liberia. In the SSP 1?2.6 scenario, temperatures are projected to edge up another 0.9°C to an average of 26.7°C through 2080–2100, which is more than the expected 0.6°C global increase over the same period. In less optimistic scenarios, Liberia’s average temperature could push as high as 30°C. In a tropical country, further warming could be more pernicious than in more moderate climate zones and push Liberia to the edge of habitability.

Liberia: Annual Average Temperatures Under Different Global Scenarios, 1900-2100

(Degrees Celsius)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2022, 297; 10.5089/9798400219665.002.A001

Source: Mean temperature projections from the Sixth phase of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Projects (CMIPs) via World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.

• Download Figure
• Download figure as PowerPoint slide

View Full Size

Liberia: Annual Average Temperatures Under Different Global Scenarios, 1900-2100

(Degrees Celsius)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2022, 297; 10.5089/9798400219665.002.A001

Source: Mean temperature projections from the Sixth phase of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Projects (CMIPs) via World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.

• Download Figure
• Download figure as PowerPoint slide

Liberia: Annual Average Temperatures Under Different Global Scenarios, 1900-2100

(Degrees Celsius)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2022, 297; 10.5089/9798400219665.002.A001

Source: Mean temperature projections from the Sixth phase of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Projects (CMIPs) via World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.

• Download Figure
• Download figure as PowerPoint slide

5. Extreme weather events, such as heavy rain and flooding, could take a heavy toll. Liberia is one of the world’s wettest countries. Mean annual precipitation during 1991–2020 came to 2,467 mm, about three times the amount in the U.S. or France. The expected changes in average precipitation may not be all that large, but the likely higher frequency of heavy rains and flooding could be devastating. Although Liberia as a whole is unlikely to suffer from water shortages, some regions could still be hit by local droughts.

6. Sea level rise is an imminent threat to Liberia. While the rise of sea levels is pretty uniform around the world, Liberia is highly exposed with 560 km of coastline that spans the entire length of the country and with the world’s 8th largest percentage of population living in low elevation coastal zones. Already over the past decade, 800 homes have been swallowed by the sea and 6,500 people have been displaced in the West Point township of the capital, Monrovia.

B. The Impact of Climate Change in Liberia

7. Climate change is expected to hit Liberia hard because of its high vulnerabilities and low readiness levels.³ The ND-GAIN Country Index compiled by the University of Notre Dame’s Global Adaptation Initiative (2022) uses 20 years of data across 45 indicators to rank 182 countries annually based on their level of vulnerability and their readiness to successfully implement adaptation measures. According to the index, Liberia ranks 174th overall—177th in terms of vulnerability, i.e., one of the most vulnerable countries, and 165th in terms of readiness, i.e., one of the least ready countries (Figure 2). Given the size of its impact, climate change will profoundly affect the Liberian society and the country’s macroeconomic performance.

Liberia: ND-GAIN Score

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2022, 297; 10.5089/9798400219665.002.A001

Source: Notre Dame University, Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative.

• Download Figure
• Download figure as PowerPoint slide

View Full Size

Liberia: ND-GAIN Score

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2022, 297; 10.5089/9798400219665.002.A001

Source: Notre Dame University, Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative.

• Download Figure
• Download figure as PowerPoint slide

Liberia: ND-GAIN Score

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2022, 297; 10.5089/9798400219665.002.A001

Source: Notre Dame University, Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative.

• Download Figure
• Download figure as PowerPoint slide

8. Liberia is vulnerable along multiple dimensions. The ND-GAIN index scores sectors on a scale of 0 to 1. Health, human habitat, and food stand out as most vulnerable (Table 1).

^{Table 1.}

Liberia: ND-GAIN Index for Liberia

Higher the number, higher the vulnerability.

^{Table 1.}

Liberia: ND-GAIN Index for Liberia

Vulnerability	0.605
Health	0.755
Human Habitat	0.686
Food	0.633
Ecosystem Services	0.554
Water	0.399
Infrastructure	-

Higher the number, higher the vulnerability.

View Table

^{Table 1.}

Liberia: ND-GAIN Index for Liberia

Vulnerability	0.605
Health	0.755
Human Habitat	0.686
Food	0.633
Ecosystem Services	0.554
Water	0.399
Infrastructure	-

Higher the number, higher the vulnerability.

9. The health sector already faces many challenges and will be further stressed by the consequences of climate change.⁴ Many medical professionals left the country during the civil war and the dependency on external resources for health services remains high. Most people are not covered by medical insurance. Overall immunization rates are low despite the high prevalence of tropical diseases. With more frequent heavy rains and poor sanitation systems, vector-borne diseases will likely spread further.

10. Given that agriculture is the largest sector of the economy, any climate change-related setbacks will significantly affect living standards and poverty. Agriculture comprises roughly one third of the economy and accounts for around 40 percent of employment. At 51 percent in 2021, poverty rates in Liberia are already amongst the highest in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). According to the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) and others (2021), prevalence of undernourishment in the total population is the fourth highest in Africa. Widespread subsistence farming and high dependency on food imports make Liberia one of the least food secure countries in the world. Rice, Liberia’s primary staple food, is at present mostly imported and as such at risk from climate change in the main exporting countries. The nascent domestic production will face headwinds from local climate change.

11. Productivity in the agriculture sector is already very low and could decrease further with climate change. The impact will be most felt through the projected increase in the frequency of extreme weather events on harvests because of underdeveloped infrastructure, especially in irrigation and weather forecasting. In addition to the direct impact on crops, climate change can affect the agriculture sector indirectly via more frequent and severe pests and weed resistance. Without proper control measures, productivity is bound to suffer.

12. Many exported agricultural goods, such as cocoa and rubber, are important for the Liberian economy but they are also sensitive to climate change. Export earnings are crucial to financing the imports on which Liberia depends. Cocoa and rubber accounted for 3.5 percent and 11.5 percent of Liberia’s export earnings in 2020, respectively. For cocoa, shifts away from optimal temperatures and rain patterns decrease the yield and affect taste as well. For rubber, erratic weather conditions tend to raise production and maintenance costs on plantations.

13. Likely changes in the oceanic ecosystem will put further pressure on food security and household income. Liberia’s fishery sector is an important contributor to food security and livelihoods of coastal, as well as inland communities. Two thirds of the animal protein intake in Liberia comes from fish. Higher temperatures tend to reduce fish populations and increase contamination by bacteria.

14. Liberia enjoys one of the largest water resources in the region, but climate change could compromise the quality and regional distribution of water. It is positive that currently 70 percent of the population has access to improved water sources. But there are considerable regional disparities that could worsen as climate change intensifies. Generally good water quality could be lost when more frequent and increasingly heavy rains overwhelm Liberia’s deficient sanitation systems and spread vector-borne diseases.

15. The rise in sea levels is another major concern for Liberia with its coastal areas home to almost 60 percent of its population and most of its economic activity. Coastal flooding and beach erosion, which are already manifesting, will only become worse. Population displacement will become more acute and prospects for a tourism industry will be damaged. In the Greater Monrovia area alone, the expected sea-level rise of 16 cm by 2030 will put 675,000 people (one eighth of the country’s population) and 9,500 ha of land at risk, according to the World Bank’s 2021 Climate Risk Assessment. Despite these risks, coastal lowlands continue to attract settlers and are growing rapidly in population.

16. The impact of climate change in Liberia is large not only because of high vulnerabilities, but also because of a low level of readiness to address the challenges they pose. Recent political stability and progress in reducing social inequality pushed Liberia’s readiness ranking in the ND-GAIN index slightly above the vulnerability ranking, but it remains near the bottom. This is mostly due to an unfavorable business climate, low levels of education, and pervasive corruption.⁵ For example, new business density and expected years of schooling in Liberia are one of the lowest in the world (World Bank, 2020). Some 90 percent of Liberian people think that corruption is high according to the Center for Transparency and Accountability in Liberia.

C. The Climate Change Institutions of Liberia

17. The National Climate Change Steering Committee (NCCSC) is the supreme institutional body responsible for coordinating and supervising the implementation of climate change policy and other related activities in Liberia. It was established in 2010 and is chaired by the office of the President of the Republic of Liberia, or his/her designate, and supported by the National Climate Change Secretariat (NCCS) housed in the Environment Protection Agency (EPA). Due to funding and capacity challenges, the NCCSC and NCCS were hardly operational in their first four years. They were invigorated in 2014 with the start of the implementation of the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA), (Liberia 2008).

18. The EPA is Liberia’s Designated National Authority under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). As the national regulatory agency, it has the mandate for sustainable environmental management, including climate change. The Minister of Finance and Development Planning (MFDP) chairs EPA’s Board. To achieve its statutory mandate and other obligations, the EPA collaborates with several key entities, such as the MFDP, the Forestry Development Authority, the Ministry of Agriculture, the National Disaster Management Agency, the Ministry of Mines and Energy, and the Ministry of Internal Affairs. This collaboration includes policies to deliver on Liberia’s commitment under the Paris Agreement and the development of Liberia’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC).

D. Liberia’s Climate Policy

19. The National Policy and Response Strategy on Climate Change (NPRSCC) of 2018 is a comprehensive document that covers both mitigation and adaptation policies. It is based on 27 existing national policy and strategy documents, including the initial NDC (Liberia 2015) and the Liberia National Vision 2030. It follows best international practices and draws on climate policies and strategies developed by other countries, such as Ghana, Namibia, and Rwanda.

20. The Action Plan for the implementation of NPRSCC is costed at US$2 billion (Table 2). Even though Liberia is a low emitter of greenhouse gases (GHG) and in urgent need of adaptation measures to better prepare for the looming fallout from climate change, only US$700 million are allocated to adaptation, mainly for infrastructure projects and the protection of coastal areas. The majority of funds is earmarked for mitigation measures, which seek to contribute to global emission reduction efforts. They focus on emission containment in transport and preservation of the rain forest.

^{Table 2.}

Liberia: Costs of Action Plan for the Implementation of Strategic Interventions

(US$ millions)

Sources: National Policy and Response Strategy on Climate Change (NPRSCC) and IMF staff calculations.

^{Table 2.}

Liberia: Costs of Action Plan for the Implementation of Strategic Interventions

(US$ millions)

Category	I. Adaptation	II. Mitigation	III. Cross-cutting	Total
Agriculture	30.1	57.0		87.1
Capacity development and training			58.0	58.0
Coastal areas	162.0			162.0
Communication, education, and awareness			2.1	2.1
Energy	30.1	32.0		62.1
Fishery	8.9			8.9
Forestry and Wildlife	13.0	156.0		169.0
Gender, HIV and AIDS			1.8	1.8
Health	21.5			21.5
Industry	15.4	32.0		47.4
Infrastructure	251.4			251.4
Mining	0.4	6.0		6.4
Research and development			47.0	47.0
Technology transfer			58.4	58.4
Tourism	45.2	20.0		65.2
Transport	53.8	593.0		646.8
Urbanization and settlement	35.0			35.0
Waste management		176.0		176.0
Water Resources	33.3			33.3
Total	700.0	1072.0	167.3	1939.2

Sources: National Policy and Response Strategy on Climate Change (NPRSCC) and IMF staff calculations.

View Table

^{Table 2.}

Liberia: Costs of Action Plan for the Implementation of Strategic Interventions

(US$ millions)

Category	I. Adaptation	II. Mitigation	III. Cross-cutting	Total
Agriculture	30.1	57.0		87.1
Capacity development and training			58.0	58.0
Coastal areas	162.0			162.0
Communication, education, and awareness			2.1	2.1
Energy	30.1	32.0		62.1
Fishery	8.9			8.9
Forestry and Wildlife	13.0	156.0		169.0
Gender, HIV and AIDS			1.8	1.8
Health	21.5			21.5
Industry	15.4	32.0		47.4
Infrastructure	251.4			251.4
Mining	0.4	6.0		6.4
Research and development			47.0	47.0
Technology transfer			58.4	58.4
Tourism	45.2	20.0		65.2
Transport	53.8	593.0		646.8
Urbanization and settlement	35.0			35.0
Waste management		176.0		176.0
Water Resources	33.3			33.3
Total	700.0	1072.0	167.3	1939.2

Sources: National Policy and Response Strategy on Climate Change (NPRSCC) and IMF staff calculations.

E. Liberia’s Mitigation Policy

21. Liberia is a net carbon sink, emitting less GHG than it absorbs. In 2018, Liberia’s per capita CO2 emissions came to 0.27 metric ton (mt), compared to 0.76 mt in SSA, 6.42 mt in the European Union (EU), and 15.24 mt in the U.S. Total emissions ran at 1,320 kt, corresponding to just 0.0039 percent of global emissions and equivalent to the emissions of 87,000 U.S. residents. On the other hand, Liberia contains the largest portion of the Upper Guinea Rainforest, despite substantial forest loss over the years. This dense forest cover was estimated to absorb 96,811 kt of CO2 per year in the Initial National Communication (INC), (Liberia 2013) and the 2015 NDC. Even though further economic development will make Liberia a slightly larger GHG emitter, it is still expected to remain a net carbon sink as long as deforestation is prevented.

22. Even though it already is a net carbon sink, Liberia has committed to further ambitious mitigation efforts. Mitigation is the effort to contain climate change by absorbing, avoiding, and reducing GHG emissions. In the context of the Paris agreement, Liberia committed in its revised NDC (Liberia 2021b) to “reducing its economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions by 64% below the projected business-as-usual (BAU) level by 2030, through a combination of the following: unconditional GHG reductions of 10% below BAU, resulting in an absolute emissions level of 11,187Gg CO2e in 2030; with an additional 54% reduction conditional upon international support, which would result in an absolute emissions level of 4,537Gg CO2e in 2030.”

23. Forest conservation and reforestation have the largest mitigation impact. Strict implementation, including rigorous enforcement of forest protection laws, are needed to achieve the set goals. These efforts deserve the full support of the international community. Even in the absence of immediate funding, Liberia is well advised to protect its natural resources and preserve its forests, as they could become a substantial source of income once carbon credit markets are developed. Indeed, with funding from the United Kingdom Department for International Development (DFID) and the EU, the Forestry Development Authority started LiberTrace, which reduces illegal logging by monitoring logging activity. To reap these financial benefits, Liberia would also need to establish rigorous verification processes to credibly document its preservation and reforestation achievements.

24. Containing emissions from energy use is the other leg of Liberia’s mitigation commitments under the NDC. Given Liberia’s stage of economic development, improving energy efficiency now and leapfrogging the energy transition, as well as improving waste management, are relatively easy to achieve with international support. This would also reduce import dependence and exposure to swings in international fuel prices. Envisaged steps include moving away from traditional fuels, such as firewood and charcoal, producing palm-oil diesel to scale back the use of petroleum products, expanding and rehabilitating hydro-electric power plants, and improving waste management to mitigate methane emissions.

F. Liberia’s Adaptation Strategy

25. Liberia’s mitigation measures contribute to the global common goal to limit emissions, but this does not make the need to scale up adaptation efforts in Liberia any less urgent. Adaptation seeks to mitigate the adverse impact of climate change on society and the economy. Liberia will likely be hit hard by climate change, considering its high vulnerabilities and low preparedness levels, unless extensive adaptation measures are put in place quickly. Since the impact from climate change is not uniform, adaptation strategies need to be tailored to countries’ particulars and to those of regions within a given country. Developing them requires adequate information on specific risks and vulnerabilities.

26. Liberia’s climate change adaptation policies are guided by a number of strategic documents. In 2008, Liberia prepared the NAPA, which is the first systematic analysis of national adaptation needs. Two years later, Liberia initiated the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) process to establish a nationally coordinated approach for the medium and long term. It was updated and further developed with the NAP (2020-2030) published in 2022 (Liberia 2022). In November 2021, the Liberia issued its first Adaptation Communications (AdCom), (Liberia 2021c) to the UNFCCC.

27. The NAPA outlines Liberia’s most urgent and immediate needs for climate change adaptation. It prioritizes projects across the eight vulnerable sectors (Table 3). The top priority is the Integrated Crop/Livestock Farming project in the agricultural sector, which aims to reduce vulnerabilities of farmers by diversifying crop farming through the cultivation of soybeans, lowland rice, and small ruminants rearing. The duration of the project is set for twenty-four months with estimated costs of US$5 million. The second highest priority is the project on Improved Monitoring of Climate Change in the meteorological sector, followed by the Coastal Defense System for the Cities of Buchanan and Monrovia project. Implementation of the projects for climate change monitoring and coastal zone defenses began only in the last few years with international support, despite having been proposed as far back in 2008.

^{Table 3.}

Liberia: The Most Highly Prioritized Projects

Source: NAPA (Liberia, 2008).

^{Table 3.}

Liberia: The Most Highly Prioritized Projects

Sector	Project
Agriculture	Integrated crop/livestock farming
Forestry and wetlands	Switching from fossil fuel based to biomass-based energy products
Fisheries	Promoting sustainable fishing practices
Energy	Promoting energy efficiency and conservation
Water	Awareness and sensitization about the importance of water resource management
Coastal zones	Development of an integrated coastal zone management plan
Meteorological	Rebuilding the national meteorological monitoring network
Public health	Use of insecticide treated materials

Source: NAPA (Liberia, 2008).

View Table

^{Table 3.}

Liberia: The Most Highly Prioritized Projects

Sector	Project
Agriculture	Integrated crop/livestock farming
Forestry and wetlands	Switching from fossil fuel based to biomass-based energy products
Fisheries	Promoting sustainable fishing practices
Energy	Promoting energy efficiency and conservation
Water	Awareness and sensitization about the importance of water resource management
Coastal zones	Development of an integrated coastal zone management plan
Meteorological	Rebuilding the national meteorological monitoring network
Public health	Use of insecticide treated materials

Source: NAPA (Liberia, 2008).

28. While adaptation plans have been developed, several barriers are hampering their implementation, with limited progress so far. According to the AdCom, the barriers to turning plans into action are financial, informational, technical, legal, and political (Error! Reference source not found.). In particular, a lack of a sense of urgency and political will are particularly concerning.

Table 4.

Liberia: Barriers for Climate Action

Source: AdCom, (Liberia, 2021c).

Table 4.

Liberia: Barriers for Climate Action

Barrier Category	Specific Barrier
Financial	High cost of implementation of adaptation plans and projects; Limited access to funding and lack of national budgetary support
Information and Awareness	Limited and inadequate information and awareness in the rural areas of Liberia
Technical	Limited technical expertise and technologies in most of the different adaptation sectors or disciplines
Legal and Regulatory	Limited specific adaptation policies or frameworks for some sectors
Political	Lack of political will

Source: AdCom, (Liberia, 2021c).

View Table

Table 4.

Liberia: Barriers for Climate Action

Barrier Category	Specific Barrier
Financial	High cost of implementation of adaptation plans and projects; Limited access to funding and lack of national budgetary support
Information and Awareness	Limited and inadequate information and awareness in the rural areas of Liberia
Technical	Limited technical expertise and technologies in most of the different adaptation sectors or disciplines
Legal and Regulatory	Limited specific adaptation policies or frameworks for some sectors
Political	Lack of political will

Source: AdCom, (Liberia, 2021c).

29. The NAP focuses on information accessibility and capacity building, arguably unduly so. It stresses the importance of initiatives that generate new insights, develop better technologies, improve knowledge management, strengthen access to information, and empower actors. For example, the aim of the adaptation program in the agriculture sector is set out as fostering a secure environment for decision-making by farmers and public policy managers faced with climate uncertainties through efficient access to information, technologies, and production processes so that they can put sustainable production systems in place. While capacity to understand climate change risks is without doubt an important prerequisite, it is high time to move on to making key decisions and taking decisive action.

30. Notwithstanding these general implementation challenges, few projects have gone forward with the technical and financial support from development partners. For example, Liberia is one of the first beneficiaries of a grant from the Green Climate Fund (GCF) that supports two projects. The Monrovia Metropolitan Climate Resilience Project was approved in 2021 and is expected to be completed in 2027 by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). It aims to enhance the resilience of vulnerable coastal communities to climate-induced sea level rises by constructing coastal defense structures, developing a coastal zone management plan, and supporting livelihood diversification. The Enhancing Climate Information Systems for Resilient Development in Liberia project will promote the establishment of interlinked community and national early warning systems. Both projects address two urgent and immediate needs listed in NAPA, though their rollout started only recently. Separately, the African Development Program (AfDB) approved a grant-financed project in February 2022 with the GCF as the accredited agency.

G. Climate Change Policy Priorities

31. To mobilize more resources for dealing with climate change, Liberia should put in place the necessary conditions to unlock additional international financial support. Climate finance is subject to rigorous transparency and governance standards for recipients, notably under the GCF accreditation process and carbon credit verification procedures. Liberia should consider establishing national entities accredited by the GCF that oversee climate-change projects. GCF accreditation ensures that entities’ policies, procedures, track record, and demonstrated capacity to undertake projects or programs of different financial instruments and environmental and social risk categories are in line with the standards of the GCF. With such assurances as to the good use of resources in place, along with general efforts to address widespread corruption, development partners will be more willing to provide additional financing. In the case of Liberia, it would be a priority to credibly demonstrate that forests are preserved, and that reforestation takes place.

32. Additional resources allocated to deal with climate change should primarily go toward adaptation. Liberia is and is projected to remain a minimal emitter and a net carbon sink, yet in its plans to deal with climate change more resources are devoted to mitigation than to adaptation. In keeping with its international commitments, Liberia should pursue agreed emission reduction targets with a focus on preserving its rain forest, which is a cost-effective measure and also desirable in terms of protecting biodiversity and developing responsible tourism. More generally, dual-purpose measures are worth prioritizing as they come with little additional costs to fight climate change, such as increasing access to electricity to replace private generators which are not only polluting but also uneconomical. But despite global and national mitigation efforts, climate change is going to come to vulnerable and resource-strapped Liberia. Hence, there is a case for channeling any additional resources that can be mobilized primarily to implement adaptation measures.

33. It is equally important to adequately prioritize among adaptation measures as the overall resource envelope for adaptation will likely remain tight even after efforts to expand it. The project list in NAPA is comprehensive, although disaster preparedness measures should probably also be included. But it is also extensive relative to the resources available for implementation. The government should therefore identify priority projects for immediate implementation and put other lower-priority measures on the backburner. Given the already increased frequency of intense weather events, enhancing coastal protection and sanitation systems would seem good candidates for prioritization. This would also align well with the priorities set out in Liberia’s national development plan—the Pro-Poor Agenda for Prosperity and Development (PAPD)—which envisages directing a sizable portion of capital spending toward water and sanitation projects.

34. Climate change considerations should be more widely integrated into sector policies. The upcoming revision of the PAPD would be an opportunity to do so. This would be particularly meaningful for the agricultural sector, given its importance for livelihoods and its sensitivity to climate change. More emphasis could be put on installing proper irrigation and drainage systems around fields. Upgraded extension services that advise on crop diversification and new varieties, crop yields and resilience, pest control, and likely developments of regional weather patterns in the face of climate change could make a decisive difference. In public investment, the evaluation of projects should systematically take the climate dimension into account, thereby automatically tilting the public investment program toward climate-conscious investment at little or no extra costs. In the same vein, administrative planning and the enforcement of rules and regulations should pay due attention to climate change issues, for example in zoning, wetland protection, and tackling illegal sand mining that further weakens coastal defenses.

H. International Support for Liberia’s Adaptation Efforts

35. The international community should further develop carbon markets. When fully developed and globally applied, an emission trading system would create incentives to cut emissions where it is most efficient. Humanity as a whole would benefit from these efficiency gains, through larger emission containment at lesser costs. In addition, countries like Liberia that are large carbon sinks would benefit from a net resource transfer invested in the country’s development including climate change adaptation.

36. Development partners could support Liberia financially before an emission trading system is set up to recognize its mitigation contribution. Implementation of a global emission trading system is still some way off, but this should not stop the international community to reward Liberia financially now for demonstrated mitigation contributions. Development partners could take Liberia’s role as a net carbon sink into account when they allocate funds earmarked for climate-change related projects or aid more generally across countries. However, receiving favorable treatment would also depend on the strength of verification systems, institutional quality, and the prevalence of corruption.

37. Development partners should support Liberia through technical assistance to adapt to climate change and to meet the preconditions for unlocking funding from the international community. For example, the IMF provides technical assistance on Climate Public Investment Management Assessments. It helps authorities reform their public investment management system so that climate change considerations are duly taken into account when putting the public investment program together. Development partners should also help countries make progress with meeting the preconditions to tap into international climate financing. This can be done through technical assistance, targeted projects, or wider reforms in the areas of public financial management, governance, and transparency in the context of arrangements with the IMF or Development Policy Operations of the World Bank.

38. The IMF can help countries finance measures to deal with climate change with resources from the newly established Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST). The RST was approved by the IMF’s Executive Board in April 2022 to complement the IMF’s existing lending toolkit to help address longer-term structural challenges – including climate change and pandemic preparedness – that entail significant macroeconomic risks and where policy solutions are of a strong global public good nature. The RST will commence lending operations once a critical mass of resources is secured, which is expected for end-2022. As a low-income country, Liberia is eligible to benefit from the long-term loans granted by the RST on favorable terms. It would need to prepare a package of high-quality policy measures consistent with the purpose of the RST, have a concurrent IMF-supported program in place, and demonstrate that its debt is sustainable.

I. Conclusions

39. Liberia will likely be one of the world’s most climate change affected countries. Vulnerabilities are high because climate sensitive sectors, such as agriculture and fisheries, provide the livelihoods for almost half of the population and because defenses are poor due to underdeveloped infrastructure, such as weak sanitation systems that are easily overwhelmed leading to flooding and the spread of waterborne diseases. High levels of corruption, an unfavorable business climate, and low educational attainment hamper Liberia’s readiness to deal with the challenges to come.

40. The government should create the preconditions for attracting more climate finance, put more emphasis on adaptation measures, and better prioritize among adaptation projects. Climate change conscious policies can be a powerful pull for international financial support, but to benefit, Liberia needs to do more to comply with the required transparency and governance standards, such as GCF accreditation, carbon credit verification processes, and fighting corruption. Any additional resources should primarily go to adaptation, which is currently allocated less funding than mitigation. To make adaptation more effective, a sharper prioritization of projects would be helpful. Climate-change considerations should also be more systematically taken into account in Liberia’s public investment program, the national development program’s sectoral policies, and administrative planning, such as zoning.

41. The international community could better recognize Liberia’s contribution to climate change mitigation. Due to its limited emissions and large rain forest cover, Liberia is a net carbon sink. Once a global emissions trading system is in place, Liberia is likely to benefit from a net transfer of resources. In the interim, the international community could recognize Liberia’s contribution when aid budgets are allocated, provided the required assurance by the government are in place. Liberia could also avail itself of the resources from the IMF’s RST once it becomes operational. The international community should continue to provide Liberia with technical assistance to build capacity in climate change adaptation and in areas that need strengthening to meet the preconditions for attracting more climate finance.