Abstract
IMF Country Report No. 22/254
Copyright Page
IMF Country Report No. 22/254
EASTERN CARIBBEAN CURRENCY UNION
SELECTED ISSUES
July 2022
This Selected Issues paper on the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on July 8, 2022.
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Title Page
EASTERN CARIBBEAN CURRENCY UNION
SELECTED ISSUES
July 8, 2022
Approved By
Western Hemisphere Department
Prepared By Olusegun Akanbi, Michal Andrle, Isabela Duarte, Emilio Fernández-Corugedo, Roberto Garcia-Saltos, William Gbohoui, Salma Khalid, Marie Kim, Weicheng Lian, Rui Mano, Beatriz Nunes, Camila Perez Marulanda, and Manuel Rosales Torres.
Contents
SCARRING EFFECTS OF THE PANDEMIC ON THE ECCU
A. Introduction
B. Output Losses and Economic Structure
C. Fiscal Legacies from COVID
D. Conclusions
References
Data Description
TABLES
1. Annual Real GDP Losses
2. Cumulative Real GDP Losses Between 2020–22, Health Component
3. Regression on Cumulative Real GDP Losses Between 2020–22, Education Component
4. Difference in Debt-to-GDP Projections Between January 2022 WEO and October 2019, Sectoral Composition of Output
5. Difference in Debt-to-GDP Projections Between January 2022 WEO and October 2019, Fiscal Variables
6. Difference in Debt-to-GDP Projections Between January 2022 WEO and October 2019, Other Economic Support Variables
FISCAL RULES IN DISASTER-PRONE COUNTRIES: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE ECCU
A. Introduction
B. On the Incidence and Impact of Natural Disasters in the ECCU
C. Experience of Rule-Based Fiscal Responsibility Frameworks in the ECCU
D. Principles and Considerations for the Adoption of Fiscal Rules
E. Implications of Natural Disasters for Fiscal Rules in the ECCU
F. Conclusion
References
BOXES
1. Rule-Based Fiscal Responsibility Frameworks: The Experience in Grenada
2. Fiscal Rules in Small States
FIGURES
1. Deficit and Debt Paths: An Illustration for Grenada
2. Relative Performance of Fiscal Rules
3. Impulse Responses for Various Shocks: Grenada
TABLE
1. Summary of Fiscal Responsibility Frameworks Across the Members
ANNEXES
I. Country Experiences with Fiscal Rules/FRFs and Disaster Resilience
II. Debt Fanchart and Operational Target Templates
III. Description of the Stochastic Simulation Methodology with GIMF