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IMF Country Report No. 22/213

Abstract

IMF Country Report No. 22/213

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IMF Country Report No. 22/213

IRELAND

2022 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION—PRESS RELEASE; STAFF REPORT; AND INFORMATIONAL ANNEX

Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. In the context of the 2022 Article IV consultation with Ireland, the following documents have been released and are included in this package:

  • A Press Release summarizing the views of the Executive Board as expressed during its July 1, 2022 consideration of the staff report that concluded the Article IV consultation with Ireland.

  • The Staff Report prepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’s consideration on July 1, 2022, following discussions that ended on May 5, 2022, with the officials of Ireland on economic developments and policies. Based on information available at the time of these discussions, the staff report was completed on June 16, 2022.

  • An Informational Annex prepared by the IMF staff.

  • A Statement by the Executive Director for Ireland.

The documents listed below have been or will be separately released.

Selected Issues

The IMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information and premature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports and other documents.

Copies of this report are available to the public from

International Monetary Fund • Publication Services

PO Box 92780 • Washington, D.C. 20090

Telephone: (202) 623-7430 • Fax: (202) 623-7201

E-mail: publications@imf.org Web: http://www.imf.org

Price: $18.00 per printed copy

July 2022

International Monetary Fund

Washington, D.C.

© 2022 International Monetary Fund

Press Release

PR22/249

IMF Executive Board Concludes 2022 Article IV Consultation with Ireland

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Washington, DCJuly 7, 2022: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation1 with Ireland on July 1, 2022.

The Irish economy has rebounded strongly from the pandemic. Largely driven by multinational enterprises (MNEs), real GDP grew an impressive 13½ percent in 2021, surpassing its pre-pandemic trend. GNI*, which excludes most of MNEs activities, recovered from its 2.2 percent decline in 2020, growing by an estimated 6 percent in 2021. The fiscal deficit, at 1.9 percent of GDP, surprised on the upside due to buoyant tax revenues and somewhat lower-than-budgeted spending. Headline inflation registered an annual rate of 2.4 percent. The strong economic performance continued through Q1 2022, registering 11 precent y-o-y GDP growth. By May 2022, the unemployment rate fell to 4.7 percent, and the job vacancy rate stood at an all-time high.

The financial sector weathered the pandemic crisis well thanks to high capital buffers and effective policy support. The impact of the pandemic on borrowers’ financial position has started to dissipate, but uncertainty remains. Retail bank profitability is still lower than peers. Two retail banks are exiting but new non-bank lenders are entering the market. New risks have emerged, including from the rapid expansion of non-bank lenders, that have tripled their share of new mortgage lending over last two years (to 13 percent in 2021). Ireland is host to a large market-based finance sector, which requires enhancing risk analysis and reinforcing regulation in collaboration with international partners.

The growth outlook remains positive, notwithstanding global headwinds from the war in Ukraine. Growth is projected to slow from 13.5 percent in 2021 to a still robust 7.5 percent in 2022. This is partly due to the envisaged deceleration of the IT and pharmaceutical sectors from their exceptional 2021 performance and the indirect impact of the war in Ukraine. Several pre-pandemic challenges remain, including housing shortages, infrastructure, social and green investment gaps, and the need to strengthen MNE’s inward linkages to broaden growth and make it more inclusive.

Executive Board Assessment2

Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. They commended the authorities for the careful withdrawal of their well-implemented pandemic support and welcomed the exceptionally strong economic recovery. While growth is expected to remain strong, uncertainty around the outlook is high as indirect impacts from the war in Ukraine could be substantial due to rising inflation and weakening global demand. Against this background, Directors encouraged efforts to enhance fiscal sustainability, further strengthen financial sector resilience, and advance structural reforms to address key structural bottlenecks to growth.

Noting the risks to the outlook, Directors recommended maintaining two-way fiscal flexibility that is guided by growth and inflation developments. They welcomed the swift response to mitigate the impact of high energy prices on households and businesses, and considered that any additional measures should be carefully targeted to the most vulnerable. Over the medium term, Directors considered that fiscal policy should support growth-enhancing green investment while keeping public debt on a downward trend to rebuild buffers. In this regard, they supported the authorities’ efforts to continue to enhance public investment quality to ensure value for money. Noting the long-term demographic trends and remaining uncertainty regarding corporate income tax revenues, Directors saw merit in efforts to bolster pension sustainability and further broaden the tax base.

Directors welcomed the findings of the Financial Sector Stability Assessment (FSAP) and endorsed its main recommendations. They noted that Ireland had considerably strengthened financial sector oversight since the last FSAP. While Ireland’s financial sector remains resilient, further efforts are needed to fully address global financial crisis legacies that weigh on retail banks and hinder credit growth. Directors emphasized the need for supervisory capacity to keep pace with the large, complex, and globally interconnected financial sector. They also recommended developing capacity in new areas such as climate, non-bank lending, and fintech. Measures to address remaining data gaps in the non-bank sector and elucidate linkages to the domestic economy were also encouraged. Directors noted the need to extend the macroprudential framework to cover risks from the growing non-bank sector, and also encouraged continued steps to enhance the crisis management regime and strengthen the AML/CFT framework.

Directors concurred that an inclusive and sustainable recovery calls for advancing structural reforms, particularly to increase the inward linkages of multi-national enterprises and mitigate the impact of Brexit on SMEs. They recommended that housing supply policies be further strengthened to improve affordability, and efforts redoubled to support labor upskilling and to enhance the provision of affordable childcare. Directors welcomed the authorities’ green agenda, and recommended that well-phased measures be better specified and implemented to achieve the ambitious quantitative targets.

Ireland: Selected Economic Indicators, 2018–27

article image
Sources: CSO, DoF, Eurostat, and IMF staff estimates and projections.

The reported real GDP growth is changed to non-seasonally adjusted (NSA). The annual SA versus NSA differences in 2018-2020 arise principally due to the lumpy, irregular pattern of IP Imports over the past three years.

IFSC indicates international financial services.

Nominal GNI* is deflated using GDP deflator as proxy, since an official GNI* deflator is not available.

Title page

IRELAND

STAFF REPORT FOR THE 2022 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION

June 16, 2022

KEY ISSUES

Context and Outlook. Ireland’s economy has rebounded strongly from the pandemic. GDP surpassed its pre-pandemic trend in 2021:Q4—one of the few euro area countries to do so. COVID-support measures have been appropriately unwound, and the fiscal position improved significantly. The financial sector weathered the pandemic crisis well and remains resilient. While the outlook is strong, uncertainty is substantial due to the indirect impacts of the war in Ukraine. Several pre-pandemic challenges remain: housing shortages, infrastructure, social and green investment gaps, and the need to strengthen multinational enterprises’ inward linkages to broaden growth and make it more inclusive. There is also a need to address the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) legacy effects on the financial system and tackle the factors contributing to high lending interest rates.

Fiscal policy. The fiscal stance is broadly appropriate. However, in the short term, two-way fiscal flexibility is needed to strike a balance between supporting the economy and containing inflation. In case growth disappoints, automatic stabilizers should be allowed to fully operate and fiscal space deployed, if necessary, through high-quality measures. In the medium term, more high-quality spending is warranted to facilitate the transformation of the economy while safeguarding fiscal sustainability. The long-term fiscal policy mix should secure stable resources to finance the authorities’ investment strategy and address social and aging-related expenditure needs.

Financial policies. The regulatory and supervisory frameworks should keep pace with the evolution of the large, complex, and globally interconnected financial system, the rapidly growing non-bank lending, and Fintech and AML/CFT issues. To resolve lingering issues from the GFC, reducing operating restrictions, addressing the challenges in collateral recovery, and expediting the plans to divest government ownership are key. Furthermore, the macroprudential framework should evolve to reflect the growing share of non-bank activity and limit any risks that may stem from developments in the housing market and mortgage lending.

Structural reforms should aim to remove bottlenecks, increase productivity, and reduce inequities. In particular, housing supply policies should be further strengthened, with a focus on boosting productivity in the construction sector and improving the planning and permit processes. Policies should also aim at facilitating post-pandemic labor reallocation and reducing labor shortages, including through re-skilling and reducing barriers to occupational licensing.

Approved By

Laura Papi (EUR) and Anna Ilyina (SPR)

Discussions were held in Dublin during April 25–May 5, 2022. Mission members included Khaled Sakr (head), Karina Garcia, Anna Shabunina and Marzie Taheri Sanjani (all EUR). The mission worked closely with the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) team led by Paul Mathieu, who also joined part of the mission. Feargal O’Brolchain and Paul Mooney (OED) joined the discussions. Yushu Chen and Giovanni Borraccia supported the mission. The mission met with Minister for Finance Donohoe, Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform McGrath, Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland Makhlouf, senior officials, members of Parliament, and labor unions and private sector representatives.

Contents

  • CONTEXT

  • RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

  • OUTLOOK AND RISKS

  • POLICY DISCUSSIONS: BROADEN, INCLUDE, REBUILD

    • A. Fiscal Policy

    • B. Financial and Macroprudential Policies

    • C. Structural Policies

  • STAFF APPRAISAL

  • FIGURES

  • 1. COVID-19—Infections, Vaccination, and Mobility

  • 2. Recent Developments

  • 3. Inflation and House Prices

  • 4. Recent Fiscal Developments

  • 5. External Sector Developments

  • 6. Growth and Fiscal Outlook

  • 7. Measuring the Impact of Supply Chain Disruptions on Irish Manufacturing

  • 8. Financial Sector Developments

  • 9. Banking Sector and Credit Developments

  • 10. Real Estate and Construction Developments

  • TABLES

  • 1. Selected Economic Indicators, 2018–27

  • 2. Statement of Operations of the General Government, 2018–27

  • 3. Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, 2018–27

  • 4. Monetary Survey, 2016–22

  • 4. Monetary Survey, 2016–22

  • 5. Irish Banks: Key Financial Indicators of Selected Banks

  • ANNEXES

  • I. The Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Irish Economy

  • II. List of FSAP Key Recommendations

  • III. Labor Market Developments During Pandemic

  • IV. External Sector Assessment

  • V. Policy Support Measures

  • VI. Risk Assessment Matrix

  • VII. Public Debt Sustainability Analysis

  • VIII. Implementation of Past IMF Recommendations

1

Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country’s economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.

2

At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chairman of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country’s authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summing up can be found here: http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm.

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Ireland: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Informational Annex
Author:
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.