Abstract
IMF Country Report No. 22/22
Title Page
IMF Country Report No. 22/22
PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA
SELECTED ISSUES
December 20, 2021
Approved By
Asia and Pacific Department
Prepared by a team led by Helge Berger, with individual chapters authored by Diego Cerdeiro, Fei Han (all APD), Henry Hoyle (MCM), John Ralyea (FAD), Yiqun Wu (SPR), Cian Ruane, Fan Zhang (all RES), Phakawa Jeasakul (Resident Representative in Hong Kong SAR).
Contents
ADEQUATE SOCIAL PROTECTION FOR ALL
A. Introduction
B. Demographic Trends
C. Social Protection System: Structure, Developments, and Challenges
D. Social insurance: Reforms to Enhance Household Economic Security
E. Social assistance: Offering Better Support to Vulnerable Households
F. Savings, Social Protection, and a Third Pension Pillar
G. Conclusions
References
BOX
1. Urban Employee Pension Risk Pooling
ANNEX
I. Recommended Reforms
HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS AND ITS DRIVERS: SOME STYLIZED FACTS
A. Introduction
B. Potential Drivers of Household Savings During the Pandemic
C. Policy Implications
References
FIGURES
1. Household Consumption and Savings During the Pandemic
2. Estimated Impact of Social Spending on Household Consumption
3. Estimated Impact of Household Debt and Assets on Savings Rate
4. Income Inequality by Source and Region
APPENDIX
I. Data and Empirical Analyses
LOCAL GOVERNMENT FINANCING VEHICLES REVISITED
A. Introduction
B. LGFVs: Large, Interconnected and Risky
C. LGFVs’ Implications for Efficiency
D. Rising Risks to Macrofinancial Stability
E. Conclusions
References
CHINA’S DECLINING BUSINESS DYNAMISM
A. Overview of Trends in Productivity Growth and SOE Intensity.
B. Bottom-up Productivity Estimates from Manufacturing Firm-level Data
C. Five Facts about China’s Declining Business Dynamism
D. Regional Heterogeneity and Business Dynamism
E. Reform Priorities
References
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AND MACRO-FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS OF THE E-CNY
A. Recent Developments
B. Key Macro-financial Benefits and Risks in Domestic Use …
C.… and in Cross-Border Use
References
RECENT TRADE AND INVESTMENT AGREEMENTS AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR REFO RM
A. Introduction
B. China’s Reform Experience in the Context of WTO Accession
C. Key Reform Provisions in Recent Trade and Investment Agreements
D. Qualitative Impact Assessment of Trade and Investment Agreements
E. Potential Implications of China’s Accession to the CPTPP
F. Conclusions
References