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IMF Country Report No. 21/272

REPUBLIC OF SERBIA

FIRST REVIEW UNDER THE POLICY COORDINATION INSTRUMENT—PRESS RELEASE; AND STAFF REPORT

December 2021

In the context of the First Review under the Policy Coordination Instrument, the following documents have been released and are included in this package:

  • A Press Release

  • The Staff Report prepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’s consideration on a lapse of time basis, following discussions that ended on October 22, 2021, with the officials of Republic of Serbia on economic developments and policies underpinning the IMF arrangement under the Policy Coordination Instrument. Based on information available at the time of these discussions, the staff report was completed on December 3, 2021.

The IMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information and premature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports and other documents.

Copies of this report are available to the public from

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© 2021 International Monetary Fund

Press Release

PR21/392

IMF Executive Board Completes the First Review Under the Policy Coordination Instrument for the Republic of Serbia

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

  • Program implementation is on track and the structural reform momentum has been broadly maintained.

  • With a robust economic recovery underway, Serbia’s real GDP is projected to grow 6.5 percent in 2021 and 4.5 percent in 2022.

  • The 2022 budget appropriately supports the economic recovery through high investment while also marking a gradual return to fiscal restraint.

WASHINGTON, DCDecember 20, 2021: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the First Review Under the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) for the Republic of Serbia.1 The Executive Board’s decision was taken without a meeting.2

The PCI was approved on June 18, 2021 (see Press Release No. 21/189) and aims at supporting the recovery from the pandemic, maintaining macroeconomic stability, and anchoring the medium-term fiscal policy framework, while pushing ahead with structural reforms to deliver more inclusive and sustainable growth.

A strong economic recovery is underway, with Serbia’s real GDP growth projected to rebound to 6.5 percent in 2021 and reach 4.5 percent in 2022. GDP exceeded its pre-crisis level by the first quarter of 2021, and economic activity remained robust through the third quarter, supported by household consumption and investment. Swift policy actions—along with low reliance on tourism and other high-contact sectors, and strong growth momentum going into the crisis—have helped limit the pandemic’s negative effects on Serbia’s economy. However, Serbia remains vulnerable to spillovers from external developments, including a weaker-than-expected recovery in key European trading partners, supply chain disruptions, and rising energy prices globally. The quantitative and reform targets for end-June 2021 were met, as were the reform targets for end-September 2021, though with minor delays. The banking system has remained stable, liquid, and well capitalized.

Headline inflation has been above the 4.5 percent upper limit of the National Bank of Serbia’s target band since September, but is expected to revert to the lower half of the inflation tolerance band in the second half of 2022 as the effects from this year’s drought wane and energy prices stabilize. In light of the rise in inflation and its uncertain outlook, the monetary authorities tightened monetary conditions in early October.

The 2022 budget envisages a reduction in the fiscal deficit to 3 percent of GDP, which will help ensure that public debt in percent of GDP resumes a clear downward path, while also continuing to support the recovery through high public investments.

Table 1.

Serbia: Selected Economic and Social Indicators, 2018–2024

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Sources: Serbian authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.

Unemployment rate for working age population (15–64).

Includes employer contributions.

Includes amortization of called guarantees.

Primary fiscal balance adjusted for the automatic effects of the output gap both on revenue and spending as well as one-offs.

Excludes state guarantees on bank loans under the credit guarantee scheme introduced in response to the COVID-19 crisis, estimated at 1.1 percent of GDP as of August 15th, 2021.

At constant exchange rates.

After CR19/369, domestic securities held by non-residents are included in external debt. Historical data were updated since 2015.

The risk-weighted metric is IMF’s ARA metric for the fixed exchange rate. Serbia was reclassified as stabilized exchange rate regime in 2019.

Title page

REPUBLIC OF SERBIA

FIRST REVIEW UNDER THE POLICY COORDINATION INSTRUMENT

December 3, 2021

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Conjuncture and Outlook. An economic recovery is underway on the heels of the authorities’ large and timely policy response. By 1Q2021, GDP exceeded its pre-crisis level and growth in 2021 is expected to reach 6.5 percent, supporting a smaller-than-expected fiscal deficit. Headline inflation increased above the 4.5 percent upper limit of the target band in September and October. Regulated energy prices for consumers are not expected to change until next spring, but electricity prices for corporates are set to increase. A new pandemic wave that started in late-July persists though activity seems to have decoupled from infections. With a gradual normalization of demand and supply conditions, growth is projected to reach 4.5 percent in 2022. Inflation is expected to revert to the lower half of the inflation tolerance band in 2H2022 as the effects from this year’s drought wane and energy prices stabilize.

Program Performance. All quantitative targets for end-June were met and a prior action on the approval of the 2022 budget has been implemented. The end-June reform target (RT) on an action plan to implement the new ownership and governance strategy for state-owned enterprises (SOEs) was met. In addition, all of the actions under the end-September RTs—relating to GFSM fiscal accounts; an inventory of state aid schemes and secondary legislation on state aid; fiscal risks methodology with related procedures; and a capital market development strategy with a time-bound action plan—were completed with a short delay. Staff recommends completion of the first review under the Policy Coordination Instrument.

Policy Recommendations.

  • Fiscal Policy. The 2022 budget appropriately phases out crisis-era support measures and marks a gradual return to fiscal restraint. It: (i) envisages a reduction of the fiscal deficit to 3 percent of GDP; (ii) contains moderate public sector wage and pension increases; and (iii) maintains high capital spending. Any public support to contain energy price increases should be transparent, non-discriminatory, based on objective criteria, and not entail fiscal risks.

  • Monetary and Financial Sector Policies. The authorities have appropriately and cautiously started tightening monetary conditions through liquidity management instruments, while keeping the policy rate unchanged. Although the drivers of higher inflation appear temporary and second-round effects limited, the National Bank of Serbia should stand ready to act promptly as needed to keep inflation expectations anchored. Financial and liquidity risks should continue to be closely monitored.

  • Structural Reforms. The introduction of a new fiscal-rules framework planned in 2022 should preserve fiscal sustainability. Other structural reforms—including those aimed at reforming SOEs, greening the economy, and supporting capital markets development—should foster stronger and more sustainable growth over the medium term.

Risks. Risks to the outlook are broadly balanced: while a solid domestic recovery should continue supported by private consumption and public investments, there is elevated uncertainty stemming from a weaker-than-expected recovery in key European trading partners, renewed COVID-19 infections, supply chain disruptions and rising energy prices globally.

Approved By

Laura Papi (EUR) Maria Gonzalez (SPR)

Discussions were held remotely and in person during October 11–22, 2021. The staff team comprised Jan Kees Martijn (head), Pietro Dallari, Marina Marinkov (all EUR), Sandra Lizarazo Ruiz (FAD), Marco Rodriguez Waldo (SPR), Priscilla Toffano (MCM), Yulia Ustyugova (resident representative), Desanka Obradović and Marko Paunović (local economists). Vuk Djoković (OED) attended some discussions. HQ support was provided by Aniko Madaraszova and Zeju Zhu (both EUR).

Contents

  • RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

  • OUTLOOK AND RISKS

  • PROGRAM AND POLICY DISCUSSIONS

  • A. Fiscal Policy

  • B. Monetary and Financial Sector Policies

  • C. Structural Policies

  • PROGRAM MODALITIES

  • STAFF APPRAISAL

  • FIGURES

  • 1. Real Sector Developments

  • 2. Balance of Payments and NIR

  • 3. Financial and Exchange Rate Developments

  • 4. Inflation and Monetary Policy

  • 5. Selected Interest Rates

  • 6. Fiscal Developments

  • 7. Labor Market Developments

  • TABLES

  • 1. Selected Economic and Social Indicators, 2018–2024

  • 2. Medium-Term Framework, 2018–2026

  • 3. Growth Composition, 2018–2026

  • 4a. Balance of Payments, 2018–2026 (Billions of euros)

  • 4b. Balance of Payments, 2018–2026 (Percent of GDP)

  • 5. External Financing Requirements, 2018–2026

  • 6a. General Government Fiscal Operations, 2018–2026 (Billions of RSD)

  • 6b. General Government Fiscal Operations, 2018–2026 (Percent of GDP)

  • 7. Decomposition of Public Debt and Debt Service by Creditor, 2020–2022

  • 8. Monetary Survey, 2018–2026

  • 9. NBS Balance Sheet, 2018–2026

  • 10. Banking Sector Financial Soundness Indicators, 2016–2021

  • 11. Schedule of Reviews Under the Policy Coordination Instrument, 2021–2023

  • ANNEX

  • I. Chronology of COVID-19 Measures in Serbia

  • APPENDIX

  • I. Program Statement

    • Attachment I. Technical Memorandum of Understanding

1

The PCI is available to all IMF members that do not need Fund financial resources at the time of approval. It is designed for countries seeking to demonstrate commitment to a reform agenda or to unlock and coordinate financing from other official creditors or private investors

2

The Executive Board takes decisions under its lapse-of-time procedure when the Board agrees that a proposal can be considered without convening formal discussions

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Republic of Serbia: First Review under the Policy Coordination Instrument -Press Release; and Staff Report
Author:
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.