Kenya: Technical Assistance Report—Improving the Quality of Fiscal and Public Debt Data (October 7–16, 2019)
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International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
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In response to a request from the Government of Kenya, an AFRITAC East (AFE) government finance statistics (GFS) technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted in Nairobi, Kenya, during October 7–16, 2019. The primary objective of the mission was to support staff in improving the quality of fiscal and public debt data for the general government and migration of the fiscal framework to Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 (GFSM 2014) concepts to facilitate fiscal and debt policy analysis for improved public financial management. This is a continuation of the ongoing efforts in capacity development aimed at supporting member countries to adopt the GFSM 2014 and the Public Sector Debt Statistics Guide (PSDSG 2011).

Abstract

In response to a request from the Government of Kenya, an AFRITAC East (AFE) government finance statistics (GFS) technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted in Nairobi, Kenya, during October 7–16, 2019. The primary objective of the mission was to support staff in improving the quality of fiscal and public debt data for the general government and migration of the fiscal framework to Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 (GFSM 2014) concepts to facilitate fiscal and debt policy analysis for improved public financial management. This is a continuation of the ongoing efforts in capacity development aimed at supporting member countries to adopt the GFSM 2014 and the Public Sector Debt Statistics Guide (PSDSG 2011).

Summary of Mission Outcomes and Priority Recommendations

1. In response to a request from the Government of Kenya, an AFRITAC East (AFE) government finance statistics (GFS) technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted in Nairobi, Kenya, during October 7–16, 2019. The primary objective of the mission was to support staff in improving the quality of fiscal and public debt data for the general government and migration of the fiscal framework to Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 (GFSM 2014) concepts to facilitate fiscal and debt policy analysis for improved public financial management. This is a continuation of the ongoing efforts in capacity development aimed at supporting member countries to adopt the GFSM 2014 and the Public Sector Debt Statistics Guide (PSDSG 2011).

2. The mission held discussions with management and GFS compilers in the National Treasury (TNT), the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK), and Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS).1 The mission reviewed the quality of the annual budgetary central government (BCG) data produced by TNT and KNBS with the aim to reconcile classification differences and for having consistency between annual and quarterly BCG data for Kenya disseminated in the IMF databases. It reviewed the quarterly debt data and its coverage expansion to the whole public sector, the compilation of financial balance sheet to report in the government finance statistics year book of the IMF (GFS Yearbook, GFSY) and in the Kenya’s Quarterly Economic and Budgetary Review (QEBR) report, and the compilation of fiscal data classified by function of government (COFOG) for general government. In addition, the mission initiated the migration of the fiscal framework to the GFSM 2014 concepts and reviewed the progress in the implementation of the recommendations of previous GFS TA missions.

3. Kenya reports annual consolidated general government fiscal data to the GFSY and is expanding coverage to the public sector. The country collects annual and quarterly extrabudgetary units (EBUs) and public corporation financial reports as required by the Public Finance Management Act, 2012. The country is keen to publish high frequency BCG data (quarterly) and compile monthly BCG that meets the GFSM 2014 framework to facilitate internal policy analysis and formulation. There is commitment to compile quarterly central government (BCG and EBUs) and public corporation data to facilitate a deeper fiscal analysis. Good progress has been made on the migration of the fiscal framework to GFSM 2014 concepts and the country aims at completing the process by 2020/21. Kenya will disseminate public sectors debt statistics covering quarterly data for BCG and is keen to expand coverage to the entire public sector through a phased approach.

4. There is need to enhance the capacity of staff in TNT and KNBS since expanding coverage to the public sector and the compilation of high frequency data in a sustainable manner requires significant capacity. Availability of high-quality fiscal data is critical in accessing international financial markets and for sound fiscal policy formulation.

5. Management of TNT and GFS compilers have a keen interest in improving the quality of fiscal and public debt data; migrating the fiscal framework to GFSM 2014 concepts and its use for internal policy analysis. In addition, the authorities are committed to expanding gradually the coverage to the public sector.

Figure 1.
Figure 1.

Selected Benchmark for Improving Public Sector Fiscal Data in Kenya

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2021, 022; 10.5089/9781513567556.002.A001

Source: TNT & AFE mission

The priority recommendations during the mission are indicated in the table below:

Table 1.

Priority Recommendations

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Further details on the priority recommendations and the related actions/milestones can be found under Detailed Technical Assistance to Kenya.

Improving The Quality of Fiscal and Public Debt Data for General Government in Kenya

A. Assessment of Status of Implementation of Previous GFS TA Missions

6. The mission reviewed the progress made on implementation of recommendations of previous government finance statistics (GFS) technical assistance (TA) missions and noted that out of 26 recommendations from previous missions, nine had been completed, while the rest are all work in progress. The authorities need to develop strategies to ensure implementation of the recommendation of previous TA missions. The detailed status of implementation of outstanding recommendations is provided in Appendix I.

B. Reconciliation of TNT’s and KNBS’s GFS BCG’s Statements of Operations

7. The mission reviewed the quality of the annual budgetary central government (BCG) data produced by the National treasury (TNT) and Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) with the aim to reconcile classification differences and for having consistency between annual and quarterly BCG data provided by them to the government finance statistics year book of the IMF (GFSY2) and the integrated correspondence system (ICS3) and in having consistency between the annual GFS data published in the TNT’s Annex of Quarterly Economic and Budgetary Review (QEBR) Report and KNBS’s Economic Survey (Chapter 5). As disclosed in Box 1 and Appendix II there are quite many classification differences in the GFS annual Tables produced by TNT and KNBS that need to be reconciled.4 Examples of the main differences are as well shown in the Appendix III. To facilitate the reconciliation of BCG’s GFS data produced, the mission worked on a bridge table (Appendix III) in cooperation with TNT and KNBS that should be used to reconcile their GFS Tables, both annual and quarterly.

The Main Classification Differences Between TNT and KNBS

  • On revenue side, the Ministerial appropriation in Aid needs to be reclassified to appropriate revenue categories by KNBS.

  • Expenditure on defense, national security and intelligence services (NSIS) and secondary schools need to be reclassified by TNT from transfers to government consumption to be consistent with KNBS’s classification (and the GDP’s public consumption).

  • TNT needs to be more precise in its classification of current and capital transfers, since in GFS a clear distinction is made between subsidies, current/capital grant and current/capital other expense. 7.5 percent and BCG´s expenditure by 6.2 percent. In 2017/18, 31.6 percent of the revenue of these 47 entities came from grants from BCG and 67.3 percent from sale of goods and services. On the expenditure side, 57.9 percent went to investment in nonfinancial assets, 22.5 percent purchase of goods and services and 18.9 percent as subsidies. The mission worked on these entities in relation to their COFOG classification

8. In the previous GFS mission (March 2019) it was concluded that forty-seven government entities previously un-sectorized in the Public Sector Institutional Table (PSIT) were considered as BCG entities and should be classified as such. It was understood that these entities were not reflected in the Consolidated Financial Statements produced by the authorities and needed to be added to have a full coverage of the BCG. In line with this conclusion, the mission noted that these entities (see Appendix IV) were not yet reflected in the data of the BCG subsector. Their inclusion (see Appendix V) shows that BCG’s revenues would increase by

Recommended actions:

  • The TNT and KNBS should work closely together for reconciling their BCG’s GFS Statements of Operations.

  • If needed, TNT and KNBS should include in the BCG’s statistics all the additional 47 entities that were reclassified to that sub-sector.

C. Migration of Fiscal Framework to GFSM 2014 Concepts

9. Kenya maintains a fiscal framework based on the 1986 GFS concepts and initiated the process of migration to the GFSM 2014 concepts. The mission facilitated the Macro & Fiscal Affairs Department of TNT to map the existing fiscal framework to the GFSM 2014 concepts-based framework. Appendix VI reveals the main changes needed for transforming from the 1986 GFS concepts to the GFSM 2014 concepts and Appendix VII presents the proposed Fiscal Table. The mission pointed out that adoption of GFSM 2014 concepts for policy analysis contributes to better consistency among all the macroeconomic statistics such as gross domestic product (GDP) and provides for better transparency in the interplay of the different sub sectors of the public sector. The TNT team will refine the proposed GFSM 2014 based fiscal framework to ensure consistency in the macroeconomic targets. It will be reviewed during the next mission planned in first half of 2020.

Recommended action:

  • TNT will refine the proposed GFSM 2014 based fiscal framework for the next mission planned in 2020.

D. Compilation of Public Sector Debt Statistics (PSDS)

10. The mission reviewed the public sector debt statistics (PSDS) and noted that the authorities are not reporting PSDS in the IMF/WB data base. The mission reviewed the public sector’s debt data and facilitated the development of a phased approach as a strategy for compiling PSDS data for the general government and the public sector. The first phase will be to refine the available quarterly debt data for the BCG as showed in Appendix VIII.5 The second phase will be to refine the available debt data on annual public sector public sector debt statistics (PSDS) since annual financial reports of the extrabudgetary units (EBUs), social security funds (SSF), county governments (LGs) and public corporations (PCs) have been compiled in the GFS (see Appendix IX). As required by the Public Finance Management Act, 2012, the Accountant General collects annual and quarterly financial reports for EBUs and public corporation, so the third phase will be to process and include quarterly public debt data to the quarterly PSDS compilation. The authorities decided that the TNT and the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) work together in compiling the necessary quarterly PSDS data and that the public debt management office (PDMO) should be responsible for submitting the PSDS data to the IMF/WB data base.

Recommended action:

  • Authorities (TNT (M&FAD and PDMO) and CBK) will refine the available PSDS data as presented in Appendices VI and VII and submit the IMF/WB PSDS Questionnaire before the end of the fiscal year.

E. Compilation of Financial Balance Sheet for General Government

11. The mission investigated the possibility to compile a financial balance sheet for general government to report in the GFSY and to publish in TNT’s quarterly economic budget report (QEBR). The mission concluded that in the compilation of the debt data as per PSDS requirements, the authorities could extend the compilation to annual financial assets without much effort (see Appendix X). It was decided by the authorities that the TNT, KNBS and CBK should cooperate in the task.6

Recommended action:

  • TNT, KNBS and CBK to compile a financial balance sheet for the general government and for public sector on annual basis

F. Compilation of COFOG for the General Government

12. The mission reviewed the compilation of fiscal data classification by function of government (COFOG) for the general government. It noted that the authorities (i.e. KNBS) are not compiling COFOG data for the whole general government. The COFOG data are compiled for the BCG and the LGs; excluded are COFOG data for EBUs and the SSFs. For international comparisons of COFOG data, it is crucial to compare the General Government7 COFOG data since the sub-sectors of GG are of very different size/importance between countries. The COFOG data are showing the total expenditures (i.e. the total expenses and investment in nonfinancial assets) of government by functions, which means that financial categories of the government outlays are not included. This also means that there is a consistency between the total expenditure by economic classification and by functions.8 The mission noted that financial categories/data as on-lending and repayments of public debt are included in the total expenditure. Corrected for this inaccuracy, it also noted that there is a small discrepancy between the total expenditures by functions and total expenditure by economic classification for both the BCG’s and LGs’ subsector (see Appendix XI).

Recommended action:

  • Authorities (KNBS) should revise its presentation of COFOG and exclude financial categories and make the total expenditures by function consistent with the total expenditure by economic classification.

G. The Consolidated Annual General Government and Quarterly BCG Fiscal Data

13. Kenya compiles and publishes annual consolidated general government (GG) fiscal data. This fiscal information is also reported through the GFSY of the IMF annually with one-year lag. The mission facilitated the review of the annual consolidated GG fiscal data for FY 2017/18 and noted a need for correction of the consolidation between the BCG, EBUs and the LGs, and it also noted that some of the BCGs grants were wrongly classified on the expense side. The authorities to submit data to the GFSY on stock data (Table 6) and on COFOG data (Table 7) which already are produced.

14. Kenya compiles quarterly budgetary central government fiscal data that follows the GFSM 2014 methodology. The data is reported in integrated correspondence system (ICS) of the IMF although not regularly (see also paragraph B on this task).

Recommended action:

  • Authorities (TNT and KNBS) should review the consolidated general government for FY 2017/18 to improve the classification of the data before end of July 2020.

Appendix I. Implementation of Recommendations of Previous GFS Missions

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Appendix II. The BCG Statement of KNBS and TNT, 2018/2019; The Need to Reconcile

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Source: KNBS’s Economic Surway (Chapter 5) and TNT’s QBER (Annex II).

Some differences can be explained by timing of the data.

Appendix III. A Bridge Table BCG’s Accounts for Reporting on M, Q and Annual Basis

A Bridge Table – BCG ‘s Accounts for Reporting on Monthly, Quarterly and Annual Basis Appendix III

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Appendix IV. The BCG’s Entities Classified to the BCG Sub-sector

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Appendix V. The BCG’s Statement of Operations Including 47 Additional Entities

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Source: The National Treasury, Central Bank of Kenya and KNBS

Appendix VI. The Fiscal Table Presented in GFS 1986 and GFS 2014 Formats

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Appendix VII. Kenyan Fiscal Table, A Proposal of BCG’s Fiscal Operations, FY2016/21

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Appendix VIII. WB/IMF PSDS Questionnaire, Table 1.1.1 on Gross BCG’s Debt Position

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Appendix IX. WB/IMF PSDS Questionnaire, Table 4 on Gross PS’s

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Appendix X. The GFS’s Balance Sheet of Public Sector, 2017/18 – Preliminary Figures

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Source: National Treasury, KNBS and IMF. * Preliminary figures. ** Nonfinancial assets are valuedd at historical prices and will consequently not give right picture of GG’s net worth. *** Sum of EBUs, SSFs, NFCs and FCs.

Appendix XI. The National Government Expenditure Classified by Functions 2016/19

Appendix XI National Government Expenditure Classification by Functions of Government, 2016/17 – 2018/19

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Appendix XII. List of Officials Met During The Mission

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1

See Appendix XII.

2

The KNBS is responsible for submitting annual GFS data for publishing in the IMF’s GFSY.

3

The TNT is responsible for submitting quarterly GFS data to the IMF’s ICS data base

4

These two tables might very well confuse the users of GFS data as they are presented now.

5

This means that quarterly BCG’s debt data need to be classified more precisely in the line of the requirement of the PSDS questionnaire (maturity, short and long term, and debt securities versus loans).

6

As noted earlier, KNBS is responsible for submitting the GFS data for publishing in IMF’s GFSY including Table 6 on the government balance sheet.

7

Defined as that the sector mostly financed by taxation.

8

Expenditure by COFOG = Expenses + Investment in nonfinancial assets.

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Kenya: Technical Assistance Report—Improving the Quality of Fiscal and Public Debt Data (October 7-16, 2019)
Author:
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
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    Figure 1.

    Selected Benchmark for Improving Public Sector Fiscal Data in Kenya