1.1.1 The Pro-Poor Agenda

The Pro-Poor Agenda is about altering the fundamental structure of the Liberian economy so that the growth does not leave the poor behind. The PAPD aims to bring prosperity to all and draw all Liberians at home and abroad into a transformed process of nation building--leaving no Liberian behind. Over the next five years, addressing the basic needs of Liberians for income security, better access to basic services, and greater opportunities for self-improvement in a peaceful, inclusive, and stable environment will be at the core of the pro-poor approach. Over the long term, raising income levels and economic status to a middle-income country as outlined under the Vision 2030 framework will remain in focus. Over the next five years, however, the priority will be placed on removing the binding constraints to reaching that goal.

Nearly two-thirds of the population currently lives in the Montserrado and the North Central statistical regions comprising four counties. Within this geographic space, unplanned urbanization continues to accelerate at an unprecedented pace, creating a potential source of economic paralysis or an opportunity to develop urban markets. The rapid growth in the size and number of informal settlements is now a significant health risk and could impose a potential threat to peace and stability over the long term, if lef unresolved.

Residents of informal settlement generally have little or no security of title to the land they occupy, and they face severe income insecurity. Unemployment is twice as high as in rural areas and three times as high among the youthful population. Moreover, access to basic services such as electricity, water, and sanitation in some informal settlements is worse than in rural areas.

Therefore, the PAPD will mark a paradigm shift from sectoral-based national development planning to a spatial integrated multi-sectoral planning--with a major focus on addressing disparities and inequality between demographic groups and regions of Liberia. Nevertheless, to fully appreciate the current situation and agree on the strategy for going forward, it is important to understand Liberia’s current under-development from a historical perspective.

1.1.2 Historical Perspective

Trough much of its history, Liberia has struggled with building an inclusive nation with shared values and cultural appreciation extending well beyond the narrow political and economic interests of the ruling elite. State power and the control of natural resources, and the wealth that process conveys, are often co-opted by the ruling class to the exclusion of others. This zero-sum game of politics has greatly impeded national development, eroding the culture of public administration, as state institutions find themselves largely servicing the interests of those currently in power.⁶

Liberia became an independent country in 1847 when five settler communities formed by repatriates from the United States declared the newly independent republic in the face of challenges to their sovereignty from local rulers and the colonial neighbors—France and Britain. Trough a series of negotiated peace treaties and deeds of cession made with the local rulers over the next three decades to end recurrent contests over land boundaries and control of resources and to improve trading relations, the 16 nations and 5 settler communities were brought into the new body politic under an arrangement that allowed a dual system of governance to prevail—one for the five settlement areas another for the provinces. Under this arrangement, local administrators became and continue to be de facto “agents” of the President to the hinterland population. Laws and practices enforced by the local chieftaincy system generally embodied traditional interpretations of individual rights, civil and criminal laws, child custody and rearing, land tenure and other property rights, control of communal assets, etc. Much of the “traditions”, such as female genital mutilation (FGM) and property inheritance, are still being enforced in rural areas, even though many have been overridden through the extension of civil law. Harmonization of the dual system is incomplete.

By 2001, the 4 hinterland territories (occupied by the 16 nations) had grown into 10 counties bringing the total to 15. Tough the 15 counties enjoy co-equal political status by law, access to resources for development remains tightly controlled. Disparity in development and opportunities for self-improvement remains. Historically, access to “development” resources has been perceived as a presidential prerogative and not a fundamental right of every citizen with the government held as the duty bearer.

The political space remains highly contested today but Liberians peacefully cohabitate the geographic space, interacting and intermarrying across cultural and social bands without hindrance. In the political space, voters’ preference in national elections tends to lean towards candidates from their own ethnic group in the first round, because of the perception that one’s interests would best be served by a kinsman. But the fact that no single group is large enough to decide the outcome in the majority electoral system, ensures that political coalitions must be formed across ethnic and geographic lines.

The inauguration of George Manneh Weah as the 24th President of the Republic of Liberia and Jewel Howard Taylor as first female Vice President was the first peaceful and democratic transition of power in 73 years. Moreover, it was the first generational change in national leadership by popular vote since the introduction of universal suffrage in 1951 and the launch of the National Unifcation and Integration Policy in 1960. This presents a unique opportunity to deliver the elusive socio-economic and political transformation long demanded by Liberians.

1.2.1 Total Population

Liberia’s population was estimated at 4,243,475 in 2016.⁷ The national average household size is 4.3 persons and ranges from 3.7 persons per household in Gbarpolu county (Northwest region) to 4.9 in Maryland (Southeastern region) respectively. At the current growth rate, the total population is likely to be between 4.8 and 4.9 million by the end of the planning period in 2023. Figure 1.1 shows the population pyramid in 2016. Figure 1.2 shows the population forecast to 2028 offering three fertility scenarios—low, medium, and high.⁸

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Population Pyramid by Age by Gender

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2021, 010; 10.5089/9781513566313.002.A001

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Population Forecast to 2028

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2021, 010; 10.5089/9781513566313.002.A001

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1.2.2 Gender and Age Distribution

Females make up 51.1 percent of the population and male 48.9 percent. The sex ratio of the population is 1.011 (1.011 male per 1 females) which is lower than the global sex ratio (1.016 male per 1 female). By age categories, the skew leans heavily towards children, youth, and young adults at productive stages of the life cycle. About 70 percent of the population was below the age of 35 and nearly half (44.5%) of the population was below the age of 15 years in 2016.

Age dependency ratios are very high due to a combination of high fertility rate and short life expectancy. At about 90 percent, each working adult must provide support for himself or herself, while providing for a child or a dependent elderly person. Most likely this would be a child under the age of 15 because of the low proportion (3 percent) of the population above the age of 64 years. In urban areas, the age dependency ratio falls to 78.2 percent but reaches 102.7 percent in rural areas where the ratio of working age to dependent population is over 100 percent. Nevertheless, the untapped productive potential offered by this highly youthful population is enormous.

Life expectancy at birth is currently 61 years old. Liberia is among the top six countries where life expectancy increased the most over the past decade. Global life expectancy now stands at 71 while life expectancy in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) stands at 46. If birth and death rates will remain at the same level in SSA, female can expect to live slightly longer than male with life expectancy at 59 years compared to male counterparts at 55 years.

1.2.3 Spatial Distribution

Table 1.1 shows that nearly two-thirds of the population live in Montserrado and the North Central statistical regions comprising four counties. Figure 1.3 shows the overall spatial distribution of the population by county.

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Spatial Distribution of the Population

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2021, 010; 10.5089/9781513566313.002.A001

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^{Table 1.1:}

Distribution of the Population by Statistical Regions

^{Table 1.1:}

Distribution of the Population by Statistical Regions

Region	Total		Male		Female		Sex Ratio
	Number	%	Number	%	Number	%
Montserrado	1,364,902	32.2	647,803	47.5	717,099	52.2	90.3
North Central	1,308,913	30.8	645,292	49.3	663,621	50.7	97.2
South Central	526,822	12.4	259,662	49.3	267,160	50.7	97.2
South Eastern A	365,145	8.6	183,423	50.2	181,722	49.8	100.9
North Western	359,562	8.5	181,397	50.4	178,165	49.6	101.8
South Eastern B	318,132	7.5	156,351	49.1	161,781	50.9	96.6

View Table

^{Table 1.1:}

Distribution of the Population by Statistical Regions

Region	Total		Male		Female		Sex Ratio
	Number	%	Number	%	Number	%
Montserrado	1,364,902	32.2	647,803	47.5	717,099	52.2	90.3
North Central	1,308,913	30.8	645,292	49.3	663,621	50.7	97.2
South Central	526,822	12.4	259,662	49.3	267,160	50.7	97.2
South Eastern A	365,145	8.6	183,423	50.2	181,722	49.8	100.9
North Western	359,562	8.5	181,397	50.4	178,165	49.6	101.8
South Eastern B	318,132	7.5	156,351	49.1	161,781	50.9	96.6

About 63 percent of the population live in the four counties comprising the first two regions. Tree out of every five can be found in seven counties. This skew leaves large regions behind in access to basic services and infrastructure.

1.2.2 Labor Force and Labor Productivity

The economically active population (EAP) is expected to grow from 1.6 million in 2018 to nearly 2 million in 2023.¹⁰ Nearly 80 percent of the EAP is in informal employment. About 35 percent of Liberian households make their living predominantly through agricultural related activities.¹¹ The population in informal employment will grow from nearly 1.3 million in 2018 to 1.6 million by 2023 without significant intervention in job creation.

In formal sector employment, 65 percent of wage earners work for private employers in the service sector (LISGIS 2016).¹² About 20 percent work for the government and 15 per work for nonprofit organizations. A higher proportion of women fall into the lower earning work categories. Figure 1.4 shows that as wage incomes rise, the share of women relative to their male counterparts falls.

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Wage Earnings of Women and Men

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2021, 010; 10.5089/9781513566313.002.A001

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Most non-farm household enterprises (56.1%) are run by women. Most of those enterprises (70.8%) have gross revenue of less than L$30,000 (US$200) monthly. Average household farm size is 1.6 hectares; but it rises to about 2.2 hectares in the North Central region. Households falling in the poorest quintile cultivate 0.3 hectares while those in the richest cultivate 3.6 hectares on average. Typically, households (74%) grow a mix of food crops with rice and cassava predominating. At least a third of farming households have some acreage of permanent/cash crop farms. On average, yields are about 80 percent of the regional crop yields.¹³

Despite the large proportion of the labor force in the working age category, low labor productivity and an acute shortage of workers with the appropriate skills inhibit the potential of the formal and informal sectors. This constrains broad-based economic growth and recovery. The 2010 Labor force survey found that the formal sector employed less than 20 percent of the labor force. It also found only 56 percent of the working age population was literate; and when disaggregated, female literacy in the labor force was 44.8 percent.¹⁴ About 47 percent of women and girls, and 33 percent of boys and men have never attended school.

1.2.3 Urbanization and Sustainable Cities

Slightly more than half (54.5%) of all Liberians live in cities and towns of 2,000 residents or more and the proportion is growing. By current estimates (LISGIS HIES 2016), 56 percent of the labor force reside in these urban areas. Most of the movement have been towards the capital city Monrovia, but other population shifts have been seen along the current economic corridors as well. The major economic corridors drawing significant population can be seen in Table 1.2 below.

^{Table 1.2:}

Economic Corridors and Rural Urban Migration

^{Table 1.2:}

Economic Corridors and Rural Urban Migration

No.	Route	Region
1	Monrovia – Ganta	Montserrado to North Central
2	Monrovia – Buchanan	Montserrado to South Central
3	Monrovia – Tubmanburg	Montserrado to North Western
4	Monrovia – Bo Waterside	Montserrado to North Western
5	Monrovia – Bong County	Montserrado to North Central
6	Harper – Pleebo	Southeastern B

View Table

^{Table 1.2:}

Economic Corridors and Rural Urban Migration

No.	Route	Region
1	Monrovia – Ganta	Montserrado to North Central
2	Monrovia – Buchanan	Montserrado to South Central
3	Monrovia – Tubmanburg	Montserrado to North Western
4	Monrovia – Bo Waterside	Montserrado to North Western
5	Monrovia – Bong County	Montserrado to North Central
6	Harper – Pleebo	Southeastern B

Economic transformation is typically triggered by productivity gains in agriculture and the release of workers from farming--pushing them towards urban areas where higher efficiency industry locates. Progress in income and social indicators are usually associated with a demographic boom which fuels urbanization until fertility eventually decreases. This traditional model of change does not seem to apply to Liberia. Agricultural productivity remains low and the skill base of the largely youthful labor force is poor to modest at best, while rapid urbanization continues.

Therefore, the urban environment (especially Monrovia) is under unprecedented stress. Large areas are converting to informal settlements where the quality of life is on a decline and where the risk of another disease outbreak is high. The affordable housing stock is extremely limited. The urban road network, water, and electricity supply are expanding but from a complete state of collapse during years of civil conflict. The risk of instability due to the presence of a largely youthful population in search of income earning and self-improvement opportunities remains high.

Increasingly, the attention given to urban governance issues will enable the government to address the needs of much of the population. There is an urgent need for comprehensive urban development strategies that tap into the potential of other rapidly growing, but still manageable, urban centers such as Ganta, Pleebo, Buchanan, and Greenville.

1.2.4 Liberians Living Abroad

Nearly 38 years--more than one generation-- have elapsed since the first wave of out-migration. Therefore, the notion of a large Diaspora population predisposed to resettling to Liberia en masse has become increasingly murky. Liberians living abroad, however, have been actively engaged in the recovery process--contributing much needed food, medical commodities, and returning to work as community service volunteers during emergencies. Personal remittances inflow reached 27.1 percent of GDP by 2017-making Liberia the largest recipient of US dollar remittances in Sub-Saharan Africa and the ffh most dependent in the world.¹⁵ Nevertheless, the role of the population living abroad in the realization of the long-term goals of Liberia remains largely unclear.

An estimated 500,000 Liberians (about 10 percent of the total global Liberian population) are believed to reside abroad. This includes communities in Asia, Europe, United States, and in neighboring African countries. An estimated 43 percent are in the North America, 36 percent in the West Africa sub region, 16 percent in Europe, and 5 percent elsewhere. The largest concentration in any one country, however, can be found in the United States (US). The US community is also likely to be the best organized and most highly engaged in development opportunities in Liberia. ¹⁶

The Government of Liberia recognizes that most Liberians living abroad have not reached the levels of wealth that will enable them to make significant capital investments at home. Tose who made investments found the risk vs reward ratio unattractive given the vagaries of the domestic market and the large infrastructure deficit. Lack of support for those willing to risk social and business ventures also limit the range of potential areas of business for entrepreneurs.

Nevertheless, The Government of Liberia recognizes the sacrifce made by Liberians abroad to sustain family and relations back home and their continuing interest in engagement in the national development process—especially in their communities of origin. Therefore, continuous engagement will remain a priority to facilitate their return to establish businesses, nonprofit organizations and charities, that create jobs and expand our social safety net. The government will remain opened to volunteer services in education, health, and social services; particularly of well-trained and skilled individuals. Reducing corruption and improving the business environment will be important. Facilitating the inflow of family remittances will remain a government priority well into the future.

1.2.5 Liberia’s Demographic Dividend

With nearly 53 percent the population between the ages of 15 and 64, the share of the working age population is larger than that of the non-working age population (0 to 14; 65 and older). Another 44.5 percent of the population is below the age of 14; the clear majority of whom will enter the labor force over the next decade. This should, in principle, give Liberia a demographic dividend. The magnitude of the dividend will be tempered by the ability of the formal economy to absorb and productively employ this workforce. Because of the limited opportunities for formal sector employment, large numbers have turned to farming and other productive activities in the informal sector, where returns from farm ventures and microenterprises remain low.

Liberia’s ability to deliver a more balanced growth that cuts across income classes, geographic regions, and age groups of the population will determine whether this dividend will move in productive or unproductive directions over the next decade.

Extreme actions will be needed to establish and sustain minimum living standards. Putting into place policies and strategies to harness the demographic dividend will be critical to sustaining the peace. Furthermore, interventions will be needed to raise the aspirations of the poor, improve human capital, provide some form of income security, and raise the level of savings. These will have to come through technical and vocational education, increased access to new technology, access to relevant skills needed by the market, expanding access to cross-border markets and to training in small business and entrepreneurship.

Sustaining an enabling business environment will also be critical to entrepreneurship and the growth of new industries. Increased investment in infrastructure will improve the links between individuals, firms and markets for goods and for labor as well. Greater financial inclusion, targeting the youth and the rural-based population, will provide access to new mobile financial services technology that can draw small economic actors into the broader economy. Information technology and the move toward a digital, cashless economy should amplify the dividends to be reaped from all these activities, enabling Liberia to leapfrog some of its constraints.

1.3.1 By Regions

Poverty and vulnerability in Liberia have both geographic and demographic dimensions because of the historical patterns of growth and development. Even these national aggregates mask the full story of poverty and vulnerability and how they undermine the potential of the country. Figure 1.5 shows absolute poverty by regions of Liberia and Table 1.8 shows the distribution by county.

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Absolute Poverty by Region

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2021, 010; 10.5089/9781513566313.002.A001

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^{Table 1.3:}

Absolute, Food, and Extreme Poverty by County

Source: LISGIS

^{Table 1.3:}

Absolute, Food, and Extreme Poverty by County

	Absolute Poverty	Food Poverty	Extreme Poverty
Monrovia/Montserrado	20.3	20.3	2.7
Bomi	64.3	44.8	22.2
Bong	71.3	55.9	24.7
Grand Bassa	61.8	45.0	21.9
Grand Cape Mount	53.7	35.3	19.5
Grand Gedeh	63.7	47.8	17.5
Grand Kru	74.4	50.1	26.8
Lofa	68.7	55.0	26.9
Margibi	52.2	39.6	14.1
Maryland	84.0	71.5	47.5
Nimba	66.5	45.2	20.6
River Cess	66.4	45.2	23.3
Sinoe	46.3	19.4	7.6
River Gee	81.9	68.7	39.4
Gbarpolu	60.5	43.2	19.8

Source: LISGIS

View Table

^{Table 1.3:}

Absolute, Food, and Extreme Poverty by County

	Absolute Poverty	Food Poverty	Extreme Poverty
Monrovia/Montserrado	20.3	20.3	2.7
Bomi	64.3	44.8	22.2
Bong	71.3	55.9	24.7
Grand Bassa	61.8	45.0	21.9
Grand Cape Mount	53.7	35.3	19.5
Grand Gedeh	63.7	47.8	17.5
Grand Kru	74.4	50.1	26.8
Lofa	68.7	55.0	26.9
Margibi	52.2	39.6	14.1
Maryland	84.0	71.5	47.5
Nimba	66.5	45.2	20.6
River Cess	66.4	45.2	23.3
Sinoe	46.3	19.4	7.6
River Gee	81.9	68.7	39.4
Gbarpolu	60.5	43.2	19.8

Source: LISGIS

^{Table 1.4:}

Liberia Multidimensional Poverty Index 2018

^{Table 1.4:}

Liberia Multidimensional Poverty Index 2018

Region	MPI	H	A
	(H X A)	(Incidence)	(Intensity)
Liberia	0.374	71.2%	52.5%
Urban	0.290	60.5%	48.0%
Rural	0.481	84.9%	56.6%
Montserrado	0.250	54.2%	46.2%
Grand Gedeh	0.349	74.9%	46.6%
Margibi	0.364	72.7%	50.1%
Nimba	0.377	72.0%	52.4%
Maryland	0.388	77.3%	50.2%
Bomi	0.407	79.1%	51.4%
River Gee	0.433	81.4%	53.1%
Sinoe	0.445	84.4%	52.7%
Lofa	0.457	83.1%	55.0%
Grand Kru	0.480	90.6%	52.9%
Grand Cape Mount	0.482	85.6%	56.3%
Gbarpolu	0.505	86.3%	58.5%
Bong	0.508	83.9%	60.6%
Grand Bassa	0.527	86.7%	60.7%
Rivercess	0.536	94.5%	56.7%

View Table

^{Table 1.4:}

Liberia Multidimensional Poverty Index 2018

Region	MPI	H	A
	(H X A)	(Incidence)	(Intensity)
Liberia	0.374	71.2%	52.5%
Urban	0.290	60.5%	48.0%
Rural	0.481	84.9%	56.6%
Montserrado	0.250	54.2%	46.2%
Grand Gedeh	0.349	74.9%	46.6%
Margibi	0.364	72.7%	50.1%
Nimba	0.377	72.0%	52.4%
Maryland	0.388	77.3%	50.2%
Bomi	0.407	79.1%	51.4%
River Gee	0.433	81.4%	53.1%
Sinoe	0.445	84.4%	52.7%
Lofa	0.457	83.1%	55.0%
Grand Kru	0.480	90.6%	52.9%
Grand Cape Mount	0.482	85.6%	56.3%
Gbarpolu	0.505	86.3%	58.5%
Bong	0.508	83.9%	60.6%
Grand Bassa	0.527	86.7%	60.7%
Rivercess	0.536	94.5%	56.7%

^{Table 1.5:}

Liberia Vision 2030 Long Term Outcomes

^{Table 1.5:}

Liberia Vision 2030 Long Term Outcomes

Priority	Core Aspirations
A United People	1.	Political stability based on equity
	2.	A society that embraces its triple heritage and guarantees space for all positive cultures to thrive
	3.	A society that is democratic, tolerant, respectful of the rule of law and human rights
	4.	A society of gender equity, empowerment, and opportunities for all.
A Progressive Nation	1.	A self-reliant, innovative, and competitive private sector-led economy with strong indigenous presence
	2.	People-focused investment policies
	3.	A nation embracing science and technology as avenues to modernization
	4.	Agriculture prioritized for food self-sufficiency and income security
	5.	Healthy, well and relevantly-educated people with improved quality of life

View Table

^{Table 1.5:}

Liberia Vision 2030 Long Term Outcomes

Priority	Core Aspirations
A United People	1.	Political stability based on equity
	2.	A society that embraces its triple heritage and guarantees space for all positive cultures to thrive
	3.	A society that is democratic, tolerant, respectful of the rule of law and human rights
	4.	A society of gender equity, empowerment, and opportunities for all.
A Progressive Nation	1.	A self-reliant, innovative, and competitive private sector-led economy with strong indigenous presence
	2.	People-focused investment policies
	3.	A nation embracing science and technology as avenues to modernization
	4.	Agriculture prioritized for food self-sufficiency and income security
	5.	Healthy, well and relevantly-educated people with improved quality of life

Table 1.6:

Seeds of Change

Table 1.6:

Seeds of Change

Category		Seeds of Change
Demographic Changes	1	A combination of reduced growth rates (population growth rate; fertility rate; and infant mortality rate) and rapid urbanization suggests that Liberia is experiencing a demographic transition. More than half of the people now live in urban areas.
	2	The number of female and child-headed households (nearly 30%) has implications for poverty reduction considering the low level of involvement of women in viable economic activities
	3	Vulnerability of the elderly has risen and is attributable to the erosion of family-provided social safety nets and community resilience
Economic Opportunities	1	Oil palm plantations (for industrial uses and as biofuel) have been granted thousands of hectares of land but the impact of mono plant on environment as well as the potential impact of evictions and alienation on livelihood are undetermined.
	2	Liberia initiated a multi-year fiscal framework that drew recurrent and development components into the budget exercise, but constrained implementation capacity remains a serious challenge
	3	Plans have been developed to explore and exploit opportunities presented by development corridors--identifying prospects for integrating the economic enclaves into the national economy.
	4	Ratification of the ECOWAS protocol on the free movement of goods and people provides other possible markets--which may include enhanced participation in African economic integration.
	5	Liberian business owners are becoming more vocal. There is a growing concern that the Liberian share of the economy is not commensurate with what should be a fairer deal for nationals.
Social Integration	1	Liberian society is no longer complacent or silent
	2	Sharp cleavages between Liberians who remained at home during the 14 years of civil war and those who fed are emerging
	3	Women have emerged as a strong political force
	4	Some ethnic groups have expressed a heightened sense of social alienation
	5	Education as a means of social mobility has been the norm. Yet social crises occasioned by instability and war have taken a toll, and in the process, impacted value systems as a whole
Governance Systems Reform	1	The establishment of integrity institutions such as the Liberia Anti-Corruption Commission (LACC), the General Auditing Commission (GAC), the Public Procurement and Concession Commission (PPCC) and a developing independent media can be forces for change.
	2	The professionalization of the Armed Forces and otherwise rationalizing a national security system will contribute to stability.

View Table

Table 1.6:

Seeds of Change

Category		Seeds of Change
Demographic Changes	1	A combination of reduced growth rates (population growth rate; fertility rate; and infant mortality rate) and rapid urbanization suggests that Liberia is experiencing a demographic transition. More than half of the people now live in urban areas.
	2	The number of female and child-headed households (nearly 30%) has implications for poverty reduction considering the low level of involvement of women in viable economic activities
	3	Vulnerability of the elderly has risen and is attributable to the erosion of family-provided social safety nets and community resilience
Economic Opportunities	1	Oil palm plantations (for industrial uses and as biofuel) have been granted thousands of hectares of land but the impact of mono plant on environment as well as the potential impact of evictions and alienation on livelihood are undetermined.
	2	Liberia initiated a multi-year fiscal framework that drew recurrent and development components into the budget exercise, but constrained implementation capacity remains a serious challenge
	3	Plans have been developed to explore and exploit opportunities presented by development corridors--identifying prospects for integrating the economic enclaves into the national economy.
	4	Ratification of the ECOWAS protocol on the free movement of goods and people provides other possible markets--which may include enhanced participation in African economic integration.
	5	Liberian business owners are becoming more vocal. There is a growing concern that the Liberian share of the economy is not commensurate with what should be a fairer deal for nationals.
Social Integration	1	Liberian society is no longer complacent or silent
	2	Sharp cleavages between Liberians who remained at home during the 14 years of civil war and those who fed are emerging
	3	Women have emerged as a strong political force
	4	Some ethnic groups have expressed a heightened sense of social alienation
	5	Education as a means of social mobility has been the norm. Yet social crises occasioned by instability and war have taken a toll, and in the process, impacted value systems as a whole
Governance Systems Reform	1	The establishment of integrity institutions such as the Liberia Anti-Corruption Commission (LACC), the General Auditing Commission (GAC), the Public Procurement and Concession Commission (PPCC) and a developing independent media can be forces for change.
	2	The professionalization of the Armed Forces and otherwise rationalizing a national security system will contribute to stability.

^{Table 1.7:}

Alignment of PAPD, AfT, AU Agenda 2063, and SDG’s

^{Table 1.7:}

Alignment of PAPD, AfT, AU Agenda 2063, and SDG’s

LEVEL(S)	Agenda for Transformation (AfT)	PAPD/VISION 2030	AGENDA 2063	Sustainable Development Goals (SDGS)
I Vision and principles	A united people and a progressive nation meeting core expectation of stability, equity, and democracy	A united people and a progressive nation meeting core expectation of stability, equity, and democracy	Building an integrated, prosperous and peaceful Africa, driven by its own citizens representing a dynamic force in the international arena	“…resolved to free the human race from the tyranny of poverty and want and to heal and secure our planet. We are determined to take the bold and transformative steps which are urgently needed to shift the world onto a sustainable and resilient path. As we embark on this collective journey, we pledge that no one will be left behind.”
II Goals	AfT Goal(s) Wealth creation and inclusive growth to reach middle income status by 2030 (informed by the New Deal for Engagement in Fragile States)	PAPD Goal(s) To build more capable and trusted state institutions that lead to a stable, resilient, and inclusive nation embracing its triple heritage and anchored on its African identity To provide greater income security to an additional one million Liberians, and reduce absolute poverty by 23 percent across 5 out of 6 regions--through sustained and inclusive economic growth driven by scaled-up investments in agriculture, in infrastructure, in human resource development, and in social protection	7 aspirations: 1. Prosperity 2. Integration 3. Good governance 4. Peace and security, 5. Strong cultural identity, values and ethics common heritage, 6. People-driven development, 7. Influential global player and partner	17 SDGs: 1. End poverty 2. End hunger 3. Ensure healthy lives and wellbeing 4. Inclusive and equitable education 5. Gender equality and empowerment 6. Sustainable WASH 7. Access to energy 8. Sustained economic growth 9. Resilient infrastructure 10. Reduce inequality 11. Safe, resilient, sustainable cities 12. Sustainable consumption and production 13. Combat climate change and impact 14. Conserve and sustain marine resources 15. Protect, restore, sustain ecosystems 16. Promote peace and inclusive societies 17. Strengthen implementation and partnerships
III priority interventions (Pillars)	29 sector goals and 52 targets/NKI; organized around 5 pillars: 1. Peace, Security, Rule of Law 2. Economic Transformation 3. Human Development 4. Governance and Public Institutions 5. Cross-cutting Issues	16 development outcomes and 120 national targets for the next 5 years; organized around 4 pillars: 1. Empowering the people 2. Economy and jobs 3. Sustaining the peace 4. Governance and Transparency	20 goals and 38 priorities of the first 10 years	169 targets domesticated and harmonized with NKI’s at national level
IV	Sector-level indicators	Subnational decomposition (regional) of national key indicators (baselines aligned to SDG’s and AU2063)	Priority areas with targets	169 targets disaggregated to subnational (and special group) levels with systematic follow up and review

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^{Table 1.7:}

Alignment of PAPD, AfT, AU Agenda 2063, and SDG’s

LEVEL(S)	Agenda for Transformation (AfT)	PAPD/VISION 2030	AGENDA 2063	Sustainable Development Goals (SDGS)
I Vision and principles	A united people and a progressive nation meeting core expectation of stability, equity, and democracy	A united people and a progressive nation meeting core expectation of stability, equity, and democracy	Building an integrated, prosperous and peaceful Africa, driven by its own citizens representing a dynamic force in the international arena	“…resolved to free the human race from the tyranny of poverty and want and to heal and secure our planet. We are determined to take the bold and transformative steps which are urgently needed to shift the world onto a sustainable and resilient path. As we embark on this collective journey, we pledge that no one will be left behind.”
II Goals	AfT Goal(s) Wealth creation and inclusive growth to reach middle income status by 2030 (informed by the New Deal for Engagement in Fragile States)	PAPD Goal(s) To build more capable and trusted state institutions that lead to a stable, resilient, and inclusive nation embracing its triple heritage and anchored on its African identity To provide greater income security to an additional one million Liberians, and reduce absolute poverty by 23 percent across 5 out of 6 regions--through sustained and inclusive economic growth driven by scaled-up investments in agriculture, in infrastructure, in human resource development, and in social protection	7 aspirations: 1. Prosperity 2. Integration 3. Good governance 4. Peace and security, 5. Strong cultural identity, values and ethics common heritage, 6. People-driven development, 7. Influential global player and partner	17 SDGs: 1. End poverty 2. End hunger 3. Ensure healthy lives and wellbeing 4. Inclusive and equitable education 5. Gender equality and empowerment 6. Sustainable WASH 7. Access to energy 8. Sustained economic growth 9. Resilient infrastructure 10. Reduce inequality 11. Safe, resilient, sustainable cities 12. Sustainable consumption and production 13. Combat climate change and impact 14. Conserve and sustain marine resources 15. Protect, restore, sustain ecosystems 16. Promote peace and inclusive societies 17. Strengthen implementation and partnerships
III priority interventions (Pillars)	29 sector goals and 52 targets/NKI; organized around 5 pillars: 1. Peace, Security, Rule of Law 2. Economic Transformation 3. Human Development 4. Governance and Public Institutions 5. Cross-cutting Issues	16 development outcomes and 120 national targets for the next 5 years; organized around 4 pillars: 1. Empowering the people 2. Economy and jobs 3. Sustaining the peace 4. Governance and Transparency	20 goals and 38 priorities of the first 10 years	169 targets domesticated and harmonized with NKI’s at national level
IV	Sector-level indicators	Subnational decomposition (regional) of national key indicators (baselines aligned to SDG’s and AU2063)	Priority areas with targets	169 targets disaggregated to subnational (and special group) levels with systematic follow up and review

^{Table 1.8:}

High-Level National Targets and Development Outcomes of the PAPD

^{Table 1.8:}

High-Level National Targets and Development Outcomes of the PAPD

Vision 2030 GOAL: A united people and peaceful nation; enjoying prosperity and progress
PAPD GOALS: To build more capable and trusted state institutions that lead to a stable, resilient, and inclusive nation embracing its triple heritage and anchored on its African identity To provide greater income security to an additional one million Liberians, and reduce absolute
NATIONAL TARGETS/INDICATORS: By 2023, Liberia’s Human Development Index rises to the Sub-Saharan Africa average (from 0.427 to 0.523) By 2023, Reduced disparity in access to health, education, and decent living standards (measured by improvement in the Multi-dimensional Poverty Index--MPI) in Urban areas MPI will fall from 0.290 to 0.259 in Rural areas MPI will fall from 0.481 to 0.290 By 2023, Greater income security provided to an additional one million Liberians to reduce the proportion of people living in absolute poverty in Southeastern Region B from 81.3% to 58.3% in North Central Region from 68.5% to 45.5% in North Western Region from 58.6% to 35.6% in Southeastern Region A from 57.2% to 34.2% in South Central Region from 57.2% to 34.2% By 2023, Liberia’s Social Cohesion and Reconciliation Index improves from 6.6 to 8
Pillar	Development Outcomes
Pillar One: Power to the People Goal: To empower Liberians with the tools to gain control of their lives; reaching the furthest first and leaving no one behind	1. Achieving more inclusive and higher quality education with greater access to ICT through the life cycle of all Liberians 2. Increased and inclusive access to quality essential health and reduced overall morbidity/mortality 3. Gender equality entrenched as a cross-cutting concern leading to more empowered women and girls 4. Increased access to integrated services for Youths and Young Adults 5. Enhanced access to social safety nets through social assistance, social cash transfer, and social inclusion through work opportunities for the most vulnerable and extremely poor groups and regions
Pillar Two: The Economy and Jobs Goal: A stable macroeconomic environment enabling private sector-led economic growth, greater competitiveness, and diversification of the economy	1. An improved environment for private-sector led growth, balanced revenue and expenditure outturns, and enhanced domestic revenue 2. Increased and inclusive social and economic activity and connectivity through critical infrastructure improvements 3. Increased agricultural production and productivity and improved forest utilization through competitive value chains and market linkages for food and income security, economic growth, and job creation 4. Improved fiscal and monetary policy management to promote economic growth and job creation
Pillar Three: Sustaining the Peace Goal: A more peaceful and unified society that enables economic transformation and sustainable development	1. A society that embraces its triple heritage and guarantees space for all positive cultures to thrive 2. A society where justice, rule of law and human rights prevail 3. Improved security service delivery nationwide with adequate capacity to deter and or respond to security threats
Pillar Four: Governance and Transparency Goal: An inclusive and accountable public sector for shared prosperity and sustainable development	1. A reformed public sector exhibiting improved fiscal discipline and service delivery, and a rebalance in the concentration of economic and political activities away from Monrovia 2. Improved tenure in the governance of natural resources 3. More robust structures reducing waste and other systemic losses in the operations of Ministries, Agencies, and Commissions 4. Universal migration to ICT platforms and wider adoption of e-government to improve business processes and productivity

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^{Table 1.8:}

High-Level National Targets and Development Outcomes of the PAPD

Vision 2030 GOAL: A united people and peaceful nation; enjoying prosperity and progress
PAPD GOALS: To build more capable and trusted state institutions that lead to a stable, resilient, and inclusive nation embracing its triple heritage and anchored on its African identity To provide greater income security to an additional one million Liberians, and reduce absolute
NATIONAL TARGETS/INDICATORS: By 2023, Liberia’s Human Development Index rises to the Sub-Saharan Africa average (from 0.427 to 0.523) By 2023, Reduced disparity in access to health, education, and decent living standards (measured by improvement in the Multi-dimensional Poverty Index--MPI) in Urban areas MPI will fall from 0.290 to 0.259 in Rural areas MPI will fall from 0.481 to 0.290 By 2023, Greater income security provided to an additional one million Liberians to reduce the proportion of people living in absolute poverty in Southeastern Region B from 81.3% to 58.3% in North Central Region from 68.5% to 45.5% in North Western Region from 58.6% to 35.6% in Southeastern Region A from 57.2% to 34.2% in South Central Region from 57.2% to 34.2% By 2023, Liberia’s Social Cohesion and Reconciliation Index improves from 6.6 to 8
Pillar	Development Outcomes
Pillar One: Power to the People Goal: To empower Liberians with the tools to gain control of their lives; reaching the furthest first and leaving no one behind	1. Achieving more inclusive and higher quality education with greater access to ICT through the life cycle of all Liberians 2. Increased and inclusive access to quality essential health and reduced overall morbidity/mortality 3. Gender equality entrenched as a cross-cutting concern leading to more empowered women and girls 4. Increased access to integrated services for Youths and Young Adults 5. Enhanced access to social safety nets through social assistance, social cash transfer, and social inclusion through work opportunities for the most vulnerable and extremely poor groups and regions
Pillar Two: The Economy and Jobs Goal: A stable macroeconomic environment enabling private sector-led economic growth, greater competitiveness, and diversification of the economy	1. An improved environment for private-sector led growth, balanced revenue and expenditure outturns, and enhanced domestic revenue 2. Increased and inclusive social and economic activity and connectivity through critical infrastructure improvements 3. Increased agricultural production and productivity and improved forest utilization through competitive value chains and market linkages for food and income security, economic growth, and job creation 4. Improved fiscal and monetary policy management to promote economic growth and job creation
Pillar Three: Sustaining the Peace Goal: A more peaceful and unified society that enables economic transformation and sustainable development	1. A society that embraces its triple heritage and guarantees space for all positive cultures to thrive 2. A society where justice, rule of law and human rights prevail 3. Improved security service delivery nationwide with adequate capacity to deter and or respond to security threats
Pillar Four: Governance and Transparency Goal: An inclusive and accountable public sector for shared prosperity and sustainable development	1. A reformed public sector exhibiting improved fiscal discipline and service delivery, and a rebalance in the concentration of economic and political activities away from Monrovia 2. Improved tenure in the governance of natural resources 3. More robust structures reducing waste and other systemic losses in the operations of Ministries, Agencies, and Commissions 4. Universal migration to ICT platforms and wider adoption of e-government to improve business processes and productivity

The figure also shows that more than 4 of every 5 residents (89%) of the Southeastern B region live in absolute poverty. In the prime agricultural North Central region, absolute poverty restrains almost the same proportion (82%). In and around the capital city Monrovia, only 28 percent live in absolute poverty and the proportion is declining. The four counties with the lowest levels of poverty are Montserrado, Sinoe, Margibi, and Grand Cape Mount.

When viewed from a multidimensional perspective, which speaks more directly to the challenges and opportunities to building human capital, a different pattern emerges. Table 1.3 uses the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) to reveal the incidence and intensity of poverty across counties of Liberia. Unlike income poverty, the MPI is a measure of 10 indicators of development deprivation across three dimensions—education, health, standard of living.¹⁷ MPI calculations are based largely on data from the 2013 LDHS (LISGIS).

Based on the above estimates, about 3 million Liberians (70.1 percent) were multi-dimensionally poor (deprived of development). Another 924 thousand are near multidimensional poverty. Across Sub-Saharan Africa, about 54 percent of people suffered multidimensional poverty in 2015, but 30 of the 35 countries analyzed succeeded in reducing their MPI significantly over time. Liberia is among the remaining five that did not reduce the MPI over time.

Liberia’s overall score is 0.356, putting it towards the bottom in ranking of the 102 developing countries in the 2015 Human Development Report. Furthermore, Table 1.4 reveals that Rivercess, Grand Bassa, Bong, Gbarpolu, and Grand Cape Mount are the five counties most deprived of education, health, and standard of living. Grand Bassa, Bong, Gbarpolu, and Rivercess have the most intense deprivation. Only twelve of the 15 counties are above the national average of 0.374.

1.3.2 By Demographic Groups

1.4.1 Southeastern A Region

Southeastern A comprise Sinoe, Grand Gedeh, and Rivercess counties. Significant investments have been made in oil palm development in this region. The Agricultural Concession Agreements (ACA) could allow the production of between 150,000 to 200,000 hectares of oil palm over the next decade. Approximately 40,000 hectares in community oil palm--an out-grower scheme, is anticipated. The region also boasts the highest forest coverage rate within Liberia. The potential for effective management and development of forest resources is enormous. The Port of Greenville has been significantly rehabilitated to provide an alternative port for international trade. Along the coast, families engage in artisanal fishing with potential for increased production.

1.4.2 Southeastern B Region

This region comprises Maryland, River Gee, and Grand Kru counties. The region can be competitive in agriculture and forestry, cross border trade, fishing, artisanal mining, and expansion of rubber and oil palm production. Electricity is available at competitive prices and the Port of Maryland is under rehabilitation. Nevertheless, development of the potential is constrained by a poor road network that keeps the region isolated nearly half of the year.

1.4.3 North Central Region

The north central region has been the traditional food belt of Liberia. Average smallholderhousehold farm sizecultivation in acreagehectares is 5.4, 4.82.2, 1.94, and 3.41.39 in Lofa, Nimba, and Bong, respectively (the average farm size in Liberia is ).1.6 hectares) . The region also produced 54 percent of the basic food crops--rice and cassava, in 2016. It has a competitive advantage both in arable land and the predominant role agriculture plays in the regional economy. In addition to food, cofee, cocoa, oil palm, and rubber are grown.

Iron ore mining is done in two locations of the region. There is significant cross-border trade with neighboring Guinea and Cote d’Ivoire. The region is the highest contributor to domestic revenue after Montserrado county. Electricity is available at competitive rates in Nimba and is being extended to Bong; while a major primary road into Lofa is under development.

1.4.4 North Western Region

Gbarpolu, Grand Cape Mount, and Bomi counties comprise the north western region. The region has a huge potential in mining and panning, forestry development, artisanal fishing among communities living on the coast, and cross-border trade with Sierra Leone and Guinea.

Approximately 220,000 hectare of oil palm is under development through an ACA. Trough the ACA, an additional 40,000 hectares of out grower oil palm farms are to be developed with a potential export value between 50 and 75 million US dollars.

The region also boasts some of the best potential for tourism development. Affordable energy and road access are key constraints to development of the potential

1.4.5 South Central Region

This region is the traditional rubber belt where the largest plantation and numerous large out grower farms are located. Current projections put total production at the largest plantation at 66 million lbs. by 2025 and 90 million by 2030. Old rubber trees can be harvested to provide a sustainable alternative to hardwoods. The regional has a potential for value addition in rubber processing. Grand Bassa and Margibi counties form this region which is the third most populous after Montserrado and the North Central regions. The Roberts International Airport and the Port of Buchanan (the second largest in Liberia) are located here as well.

1.4.6 Montserrado Region

Montserrado is the traditional political, social, and commercial hub of Liberia. It is also the location for nearly all non-agricultural manufacturing activities. Without significant intervention, most economic growth will naturally occur in and around Monrovia, increasing historical and regional disparity.

Strategically, priority will be placed on improving the business environment in Montserrado and elsewhere, but significant capital investments will be directed to other regions to reduce infrastructure deficits and reduce the cost of doing business in those areas of the country. Figure 1.6 shows the development potential in agriculture and forestry, mining and panning, and in fishing across Liberia.

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Potential Development Regions

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2021, 010; 10.5089/9781513566313.002.A001

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1.5.1 Donor Dependency

Estimates show development partners’ share of the total expenditure on the AfT development plan rose from 64 percent in FY2012/2013 to 76 percent for the Fiscal Year FY2014/2015. Overall fiscal balance, without grant support, rose from negative five percent (-5%) to negative eighteen percent (-18%) between the two fiscal years.²² In response to the outbreak of EVD in 2014, an additional US$0.9 billion had been committed to fighting the outbreak in Liberia by the end of the fiscal year. While this illustrates the level of commitment of partners to the successful transition of Liberia from a failed state to a stable political and economic development environment, this made Liberia one of the most highly dependent on donor support in Africa.

Support came in multiple forms including direct budget support, directly-executed projects, and technical assistance. The health sector benefited from interventions executed through multiple modalities; including a pool fund mechanism and Fixed Amount Reimbursement Agreement (FARA). Under these arrangements, performance contracts were granted to nongovernmental organizations to operate health delivery points. The eventual collapse of the health care system in the face of the EVD outbreak brought into question the efficacy of these forms of aid in building critical systems for the country; and highlights the urgent need for a new partnership model for ODA.

1.5.2 Economic Growth

A critical lesson learned from the design of the PRS (2008 to 2011) was that Liberia cannot simply recreate the economic and political structures of the past, which produced widespread income disparities, economic and political marginalization, and deep social cleavages, ultimately fueling the conflict. In the design and execution of its NDP’s, Liberia must create much greater economic and political opportunities for all its citizens and ensure that growth and development are pro-poor in the sense that they are widely shared--with the benefits spread much more equitably throughout the population.²³

To jumpstart the moribund economy in 2008 and generate the revenues needed for the ambitious development agenda at the start of the PRS period, however, the government reverted to granting concessions and generous tax incentives to attract desperately-needed foreign direct investments (FDI). These took the form of mineral development agreements (MDA’s), agricultural concession agreements (ACA’s), Forest Management Contracts (FMC), Timber Sales Contracts (TSC), and Private Use Permits (PUP’s) for small producers. The National Investment Incentive Code was updated in 2010; and generous tax waivers were offered for development of tourism and trade infrastructures. These incentives attracted commitments of US$16 billion in FDI to be realized over a 25-year period.

The 2018 APRM review concluded that the process of securing, negotiating, and implementing these concessionary agreements in Liberia met internationally accepted best practices and brought benefits. Overall the economy grew by 6.7 percent over the period 2009 to 2013. The mining sector grew by 70 percent between 2005 and 2013. An estimated ffeen thousand jobs were created but large numbers were lost (2014 and 2015) when the twin shocks of the EVD outbreak and global commodity price decline occurred, with concessionaires ceasing operations. Over the same period, the agricultural sector grew by 2.8 percent creating an estimated 500,000 income earning opportunities .²⁴

Nevertheless, implementation of business and investment policies have been deeply flawed due to a combination of limited capacity to effectively monitor compliance with the agreements and a lack of political will for enforcement. Adherence to the key principle of First Prior and Informed consent (FPIC) has been difficult . In some areas, communities have been adversely impacted by land loss and have become more food insecure.²⁶ Exploitation of forest resources through elite capture for profit continued at a more aggressive scale. These outcomes have brought into question the continuing efficacy of the old economic structures in employment, revenue generation, and inclusion.

Liberia has not found a successful pathway from high level of dependence on natural resource exports and foreign assistance for the large inflows of U.S. dollars it needs for food and fuel imports. Nevertheless, the government recognizes that sustainable economic growth and diversification is possible with the right macroeconomic and fiscal policy mix. Structural and institutional inadequacies, and the lack of will to implement the policies, will need to be addressed to be able to go forward.

1.5.3 Planning and Coordination

The national planning process is top-down in structure. Sectoral and regional consultative meetings are held to review past performance of the NDP and build consensus on the best way forward. In principle, this connects the national, county, district, and community levels planning processes. Launched in Jan 2013, institutions within the Liberia Development Alliance (LDA) structure have four primary responsibilities:²⁷--coordinating policy making, providing an open platform to all stakeholders, following up on the global commitments made under the “New Deal”, accounting for results and a functional M&E framework under the AfT. Nevertheless, structural and institutional inadequacies limit the operation of the planning process; and national ownership of the NDP commitments has not been realized.

1.5.4 Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E)/ Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF)

Success of any of the NDP’s requires a robust M&E system that can effectively disaggregate data and periodically measure progress both at sector and regional levels to inform decision making. Significant data gaps on the National Key Indicators (NKI’s) used by the AfT highlight the challenge with monitoring and coordination of development between sectoral MACs and cooperating partners.

Likewise, while the MTEF provided effective fora and the associated institutional mechanisms to facilitate the making and enforcement of strategic resource allocation decisions, the challenge of full adoption of the MTEF as a single reform initiative has been insurmountable. Adhering to spending priorities has been a major challenge. Assurances of the availability of financing for priority projects were not met. Alignment and tracking of actual expenditure to pillars and interventions is limited because the government has not been able to produce budget performance reports that disaggregate outturns by sectors or regions.

A hybrid approach, with a smaller number of NKI’s linked to the SDG’s and the AU Agenda 2063, will allow sector MACs to appreciate their own roles and contributions to the Pro-poor national development agenda, while preparing for full migration to reporting against results and outcomes in the future. Progressively strengthening the National Statistics System (NSS) and reorienting its priorities toward capturing and systematic reporting on data needed for high level decision-making and execution of the NDP will be critical.

Applying the Multiyear Fiscal Framework (MYFF) to only one or two priority sectors, while maintaining cash budgeting or repeatable cost management on all others, will respond to structural and institutional inadequacies. Continuation of periodic Performance Expenditure Tracking Surveys (PETS) will improve accountability and transparency in the use of public resources and provide validation that resources reached intended beneficiaries.

1.5.5 Specific Measures to address Lessons Learnt

In view of the foregoing, this plan marks a paradigm shift in design and management of the NDP. Supporting the paradigm shift is the acknowledgement that increasing capital investments to boost economic growth and increasing social expenditure to create local markets and reduce vulnerability are not mutually exclusive. In fact, when properly sequenced they are mutually reinforcing and sustainable. Economic growth produces the income security and wealth that the poor badly need to improve their living standards; while increasing social spending can increase demand for goods and services provided by the market, and build human and knowledge capital, to tap into the new opportunities that will emerge because of growth.

1.5.6 New Deal for Fragile States

A Fragility Assessment and a list of PSG indicators were developed in 2012. In 2013, a New Deal Dashboard was developed, and New Deal principles were incorporated into the Government’s One Vision, One Plan (2013): “Agenda for Transformation: Steps toward Liberia Rising 2030”. Liberia renewed its efforts to implement the New Deal with the Ebola Recovery Assessment (conducted with UNDP, the World Bank, the EU) after a slowdown in activities provoked by the EVD crisis. An outline and roadmap for a Compact, and an inventory of the use of Country Systems, have not been developed.

Going forward, the PAPD replaces the AfT as the One Vision, One Plan and establishes the basis for much-needed dialogue and a possible agreement with ODA partners on how New Deal priorities, processes, tools and mechanisms can be built upon in the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) implementation; including greater use of country systems to improve ODA impact over the 2018 to 2023 period. Liberia is among countries where efforts to eradicate extreme poverty, that are central to the SDG agenda, will be most urgent.

At the same time, Liberia will face the biggest hurdles in implementing the SDGs. Properly monitoring change across the 169 targets, particularly on SDG Goal 16 given the strong reference to sustaining peace and building a capable state in the PAPD, will severely stretch the capacity of the national statistical system and those of government MACs. A minimalist approach will need to be formulated and included into the PAPD implementation plan.

1.7.1 Introduction

This section begins the unpacking of the PAPD. First and foremost, the PAPD is structured to be used as a tool that will enable MACs and partners to logically align short to medium term development initiatives to the long-term aspirations of the Liberian people. Learning from the challenges with building national ownership and keeping the commitments of prior plans, the PAPD breaks targets and indicators down to the regional level--to establish the baselines against which progressive reductions in geographic disparity can be measured.

1.7.2 Reaffirmation of the National Vision and Principles of Vision 2030

The PAPD is positioned as the second in the series of five-year NDP’s towards the national aspirations expressed in the Vision 2030 framework developed in 2012. The national vision statement emerging from that process is multidimensional and simultaneously addresses the social, economic, political, environmental, cultural, and technological aspirations of the Liberian people. Therefore, the high-level goals of the PAPD align with and address all these dimensions as well. If Liberia implements its development plans successfully, and attains its development goal, Liberia will have the attributes listed in Table 1.5.

1.7.3 Structural Transformation

During the national visioning exercise, Liberians also identified key seeds of change that can be leveraged by the government to drive structural transformation. These fall into four categories: i) emerging demographic changes, ii) new economic opportunities, iii) growing social integration and unity, and iv) governance system reform

1.7.4 Goals and Objectives of the Pro-Poor Agenda for Prosperity and Development

1.7.5 High Level Objectives of the PAPD

Liberia’s history with political, social, and economic development clearly demonstrates that a continuing emphasis on generating high GDP and per capita growth rates through FDI alone will not be enough to produce the long-term outcomes desired by the Liberian people. The widespread economic exclusion, poverty, and inequality that exists will undermine the capacity to build the human and knowledge capital needed to transform natural resource endowment into wealth and to sustain a stable and prosperous nation—if Liberia continues down that pathway.

Also underpinning the long conflict is a national identity crisis embedded in the first Constitution that Liberians are on a mission to seek Liberty and to Christianize a “benighted” Africa. Successive generations have been brought up to believe that there is a “special relationship” elsewhere that must be sustained at all cost and that Liberia is a Christian missionary nation.

The government recognizes and embraces our African identity first and foremost and acknowledges that development must start from a renewed mindset that Liberians come from different backgrounds and faiths that, taken together, enrich our cultural heritage and

1.7.6 The PAPD Alignment to Regional and Global Development Initiatives

Table 1.7 shows the alignment of the PAPD with the AU Agenda 2063, and the SDG’s at four levels. Vision and principles form the first, goals the next, priority interventions/pillars at the third level and indicators for subnational decomposition of measurements at the fourth level. For the first time in Liberia’s history, targets of the national development plan will be disaggregated to the regional level.

The themes of unity, peace, inclusion, and stability under a democratic political dispensation are embraced by all visions and principles. Furthermore, recognition, appreciation, and respect for cultural diversity penetrates the goal level aspirations—as well as shared prosperity and a deliberate effort to leave no one behind.

This is particularly evident at levels III and I V, where the people will be at the center of the national development process and efforts will be made to track their progress at the subnational levels. In the Pillar arrangements, Power to the People encapsulates the Human Development and Cross-cutting pillars of the AfT. Sustaining the Peace and Governance and Transparency, replace Peace, Security & Rule of Law and Governance and Public Institutions, reflecting their contributions to sustaining the enabling environment through which the people will thrive.

Liberia remains stable but is still fragile and must pursue state capacity building, complete basic government transformation, and strengthen capacity and systems as well. A critical first step in this regard is taking ownership and leadership of the PAPD formulation and implementation process; while welcoming and appreciating technical assistance made available through development partners.

1.7.6 The Four Pillars of the National Development Plan

The PAPD presents results frameworks for each of the four pillars as tools to assist MACs and partners to logically link interventions to the high-level goals over the next five years; which in turn will bring Liberia closer to the realization of the aspirations defined in the Vision 2030 process. The results framework will also inform the revision to existing sectoral strategic plans as they expire, update progress measurement indicators used by the NSS, and fiscal prioritization within the context of the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF).

To support the two high-level goals of the PAPD, eight national targets have been established. Strategies and pathways are built around four pillars as follows:

• 1. Power to the People—Liberians empowered with skills and tools to gain control of their lives

• 2. The Economy and Jobs—Private Sector-Led growth and job creation through prudent management of the economic inclusion process and more effective resource mobilization

• 3. Sustaining the Peace—Promoting a cohesive society for sustainable development

• 4. Governance and Transparency—Building state capability for inclusive and accountable governance and sustainable development

Sixteen development outcomes have been identified around the strategic priorities corresponding to these four pillars; and 120 sectoral targets with key performance indicators have been delineated for progress measurements and tracking. HDI and SDG indicators will also be used to ensure alignment with development assistance priorities of key partners.

Interventions under Pillars One and Two will contribute directly to poverty reduction and empowerment goals, while those under Pillars Tree and Four will contribute to the building of capable and trusted state institutions pursuing a new vision of full integration into the African continent in culture and vision. Figure 1.8 illustrates the reinforcing links and relationships between the pillars and the broad development goals of the PAPD. To improve livelihood and reduce disparity, the enabling environment must be created through the interventions in Pillars Tree and Four. Moreover, a stable and resilient nation on the African continent can only emerge through prudent investments in education, health, and infrastructure in ways that reverse precarious imbalances in development across population groups and regions of Liberia.

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Reinforcing Links and Development Pathways

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2021, 010; 10.5089/9781513566313.002.A001

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Each pillar has a goal and a set of development outcomes to be produced over the next five years. The sixteen development outcomes spread across the four pillars. Table 1.8, on the following page, reveals the high-level targets expressed as measurable HDI and MPI indicators and the absolute poverty targets disaggregated by regions.

1.7.7 Theory of Change

The PAPD is premised on a Theory or Change (TOC) recognizing the multi-faced and cross-sectoral nature of sustainable development. As used in this context, the TOC is the roadmap for change that will be followed by the government and its partners. While the results framework identifies the frontiers to be reached, the TOC describes how those outcomes will be produced--the “seeds of change” the government hopes to leverage and the assumptions against which progress can be made.

The fundamentals sustaining the PAPD is that Liberia is rich in human and natural resources; and that establishes a good basis for a future of shared stability and prosperity (Pillar Two). But the country is deprived of development largely because its human capital (Pillar One) lacks the knowledge capital to transform the natural resources into wealth—whether through farming, mining, fishing, or other productive ventures that require improved technology or financial investments. Moreover, the enabling environment for sustainable development must be created (Pillar Tree) and the governing institutions and systems strengthened (Pillar Four) to empower Liberians with the tools they need to gain control of their lives.

Road and other infrastructure development will be prioritized to form the physical corridors along which the new integrated and multi-sectoral approaches to spatial development will be implemented. In the context of the PAPD, improving access to all regions of the country through all-weather roads will be the enabler. Roads will also stimulate the creation of competitive economic clusters around Special Economic Zones (SEZ) to maximize the potential drivers of economic growth and development of each region. A reduction in the infrastructure deficit will open local and cross-border markets, reduce the factor cost of production, and attract private investments. Moreover, raising social spending in the neglected regions of the country will lift large majorities out of extreme poverty and food insecurity, create local markets where they do not exist, and raise labor productivity in agriculture and forestry, artisanal mining, and fishing. These interventions will help the poor to lead more productive lives and increase returns on their investments in microenterprises.

At the core of the TOC are the outcome maps in Figure 1.9 and Figure 1.10 illustrating views on how change will occur and what the likely indicators will be. The figures posit four development pathways to the two high-level PAPD goals—the Long-Term Outcomes (LTO). The pathways comprise the sets of interventions to be implemented and the seeds of change that will be leveraged to attain the goals. The development outcomes of each pillar are clustered to reveal the interaction and interdependence with each other forming joint preconditions for the achievement of the LTO. The outcome maps are organized at four levels--the LTO, development outcomes, Results, and Activity levels; corresponding to and defining the preconditions to the outcomes of the Results framework in Table 1.8.

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Theory of Change--Pillars One and Two

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2021, 010; 10.5089/9781513566313.002.A001

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Theory of Change--Pillars Three and Four

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2021, 010; 10.5089/9781513566313.002.A001

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Figure 1.9 shows the two pathways to providing income security to an additional one million Liberians and reducing absolute poverty by 23 percent in the 5 out of the 6 statistical regions of Liberia where poverty is on the rise. The two outcome clusters are around: i) empowering Liberians with tools to gain control of their lives, and ii) attaining macroeconomic stability and creating jobs and livelihood opportunities. The key elements are significant scale up in the investment in skills development (including agricultural production and marketing technology), social protection to end extreme vulnerability and create local markets, steady growth in the economy buoyed by an improved doing business environment and more stability in global commodity prices for Liberia’s primary exports. A significant element will be reductions in disparity in infrastructure—especially roads, ICT, affordable energy, and water and sanitation. The government aspires to achieve 27 and 34 high-level national targets under Pillar One and Pillar Two, respectively.

Figure 1.10 shows the two pathways to building more capable state institutions that can lead to a stable, resilient, and inclusive nation anchored on its African identity and fully aligned with the AU 2063. The pre-conditions are: i) a cohesive society for sustainable development demonstrating three key characteristics, and ii) an inclusive and accountable public sector demonstrating two characteristics--reformed and rebalanced away from Monrovia with more robust structures reducing wastes. The government aims to achieve 32 and 25 high level national targets, respectively, to produce those outcomes over the next five years. Progress on governance systems reforms and on the AU 2063 will provide the main influences while demographic seeds of change and reduced poverty and inequality will be the basic assumptions for reduction in fragility and building trust in state institutions in areas of the country where most Liberians live in poverty.

In this context, the Pro-Poor approach will inspire sectoral institutions to define, designate, and measure goals in terms of the impact on people (empowerment, participation, health outcomes, etc.) rather than simple direct outputs of money, sets of activities, or building of physical assets. The interest of government and its partners will be on understanding the impact and sustainability of sets of interventions on the well-being of the poor beyond money (per capita incomes) and physical assets.

The Pro-Poor approach will progressively introduce multi-sectoralism as existing sector strategic plans expire. In formulating all subsequent sector policies and strategic plans, stakeholders will be required to determine how the proposed program affects issues within their own sector’s purview, and how it is likely to affect other sectors’ plans, objectives, and goals in the future. It will also require analysis, priority setting, and planning taking into consideration other sectors with increased attention to meeting the needs of specific target groups and regions of the country.

In subsequent sector strategic plans, integration will also be introduced. The integrated approach will share features of participation, de-concentration, and multi-discipline with the multi-sectoral approach. The distinguishing feature, however, will lie in drawing together multiple goals or packages for a project or several projects to be delivered to a specific target population or geographic region.

This TOC inevitably raises the question about the practicality and efficacy of attempting both horizontal and vertical integration, as well as the availability of capacity and tools for assessment of performance around various issues that are being integrated. The government concedes that the capacity to understand and implement this complex framework will be a major constraint. The government also anticipates enormous resistance to changing the course and ways of doing government business. Nevertheless, the government remains resolute that by demonstrating a capacity to formulate the framework on very short notice, it also demonstrated a resolve to find and assemble the talent for implementation.

As much as the PAPD projects must be initially sector-driven, it will be important to identify those strategic partners whose services will be required and bring them on board at initial stages as consultants or service providers, playing a support role for the sector within Pillar Working Groups. Consequently, the PAPD implementation approach will be multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary but sectoral and linear in management and execution. The detailed implementation and M&E plans follow as the next step in the migration from the AfT to the PAPD framework. In addition to ‘fleshing out’ the timelines, sequencing, and prioritization, agreement will be reached on the institutional arrangements and responsibilities for implementation and M&E.

2.1.1 Current Condition of the People

Constraints can be found throughout the life cycle of Liberians from birth to death; but most are concentrated in access to basic education and to basic health, and in women and girls’ empowerment. The UNDP (United Nations Development Programme) Human Development Index (HDI) and supporting analyses are widely recognized as one of the best sets of measurements of human progress along the three basic dimensions of: i) long and healthy life, ii) access to knowledge, and iii) decent standard of living. Table 2.1 shows the HDI indicators and the related indicators of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG).

^{Table 2.1:}

HDI and SDG Indicators

^{Table 2.1:}

HDI and SDG Indicators

HDI Dimension	Indicator	Related SDG Indicator
Health	Nutrition	SDG 2 (Zero Hunger)
	Child Mortality	SDG 3 (Health and Well-being)
Education	Years of Education	SDG 4 (Quality Education)
	School Attendance	SDG 4 (Quality Education)
Living Standard	Cooking Fuel	SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy)
	Sanitation	SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation)
	Drinking Water	SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation)
	Electricity	SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy)
	Floor	SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities)
	Assets	SDG1 (No Poverty)

View Table

^{Table 2.1:}

HDI and SDG Indicators

HDI Dimension	Indicator	Related SDG Indicator
Health	Nutrition	SDG 2 (Zero Hunger)
	Child Mortality	SDG 3 (Health and Well-being)
Education	Years of Education	SDG 4 (Quality Education)
	School Attendance	SDG 4 (Quality Education)
Living Standard	Cooking Fuel	SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy)
	Sanitation	SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation)
	Drinking Water	SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation)
	Electricity	SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy)
	Floor	SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities)
	Assets	SDG1 (No Poverty)

The 2016 report explores who has been left behind in human progress, and how, among 188 ranked countries. The report puts Liberia’s HDI value for 2015 at 0.427 or at 177 of 188 countries in the ranking. Between 2000 and 2015, the value improved from 0.386 to 0.427 (or by 0.41 points). Table 9 shows that Liberia falls below the average HDI for SSA (0.523) and Low HDI countries (0.497). At 61.2 years, the average life expectancy in Liberia is slightly higher than that for SSA (58.9 years) and that for Low HDI countries (59.3 years). Since 1990, average years of schooling in Liberia rose from 2.6 to 4.4 years. But in 2015 Liberia still fell below the average of SSA (5.4 years) and Low HDI countries (4.6 years). Table 2.2 compares HDI values, life expectancy at birth, average years of schooling to the averages of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and to Low HDI countries.

^{Table 2.2:}

Liberia’s HDI and Component Indicators relative to select groups of countries

^{Table 2.2:}

Liberia’s HDI and Component Indicators relative to select groups of countries

Liberia	HDI Value	Life expectancy at birth (years)	Mean years of schooling
	0.427	61.2	4.4
Sub-Saharan Africa	0.523	58.9	5.4
Low HDI countries	0.497	59.3	4.6

View Table

^{Table 2.2:}

Liberia’s HDI and Component Indicators relative to select groups of countries

Liberia	HDI Value	Life expectancy at birth (years)	Mean years of schooling
	0.427	61.2	4.4
Sub-Saharan Africa	0.523	58.9	5.4
Low HDI countries	0.497	59.3	4.6

When the values are adjusted to show the impact of inequality in Liberia, it loses 33.4 percent of the overall value compared to a 32 percent loss for SSA and Low HDI countries. On life expectancy, Liberia loses 33 percent of HDI value due to inequality compared to 35 percent for SSA and Low HDI countries. On education, however, Liberia’s HDI loses 43 percent of its value compared to 34 percent loss for SSA and 37 percent for Low HDI countries. Inequality adjusted HDI and the comparators are shown in Table 2.3.

^{Table 2.3:}

Liberia 2015 Inequality-Adjusted HDI relative to select groups of countries

^{Table 2.3:}

Liberia 2015 Inequality-Adjusted HDI relative to select groups of countries

Liberia	Overall loss in HDI Value (%)	Loss due to Inequality in Life expectancy at birth (%)	Loss due to inequality in education (%)
	33.4	33.1	42.9
Sub-Saharan Africa	32.2	34.9	34.0
Low HDI countries	32.3	35.1	37.1

View Table

^{Table 2.3:}

Liberia 2015 Inequality-Adjusted HDI relative to select groups of countries

Liberia	Overall loss in HDI Value (%)	Loss due to Inequality in Life expectancy at birth (%)	Loss due to inequality in education (%)
	33.4	33.1	42.9
Sub-Saharan Africa	32.2	34.9	34.0
Low HDI countries	32.3	35.1	37.1

Finally, the HDI is adjusted to reflect the effects of gender disparity on Liberia’s development. The Gender Inequality Index (GII) measures gender-based inequalities in respect to reproductive health, empowerment, and economic activity. Liberia ranked 150 of 159 countries in the 2015 GII. Table 2.4 shows how Liberia fared with key comparator groups of countries in SSA and Low HDI countries. It clearly shows that by making a significant reduction in maternal mortality rates, adolescent birth rates, and an increase in the mean years of schooling and income of females Liberia could fall well below the SSA average GII and increase its overall HDI.

^{Table 2.4:}

Liberia 2015 Gender Inequality Index relative to select groups of countries

^{Table 2.4:}

Liberia 2015 Gender Inequality Index relative to select groups of countries

Liberia	GII value	Maternal mortality ratio (per 100,000 live births)	Adolescent birth rate (no. of births per 1,000 women 15–19 years old)	Female seats in the Legislature	Population with at least some secondary education (%)		Labor force participation rate
					Female	Male	Female	Male
	0.649	77431	108.8	10.7	17.3	39.7	58.0	63.9
Sub-Saharan Africa	0.572	551	103.0	23.3	25.3	33.9	64.9	84.6
Low HDI countries	0.590	553	101.8	22.0	14.8	25.9	60.3	77.1

View Table

^{Table 2.4:}

Liberia 2015 Gender Inequality Index relative to select groups of countries

Liberia	GII value	Maternal mortality ratio (per 100,000 live births)	Adolescent birth rate (no. of births per 1,000 women 15–19 years old)	Female seats in the Legislature	Population with at least some secondary education (%)		Labor force participation rate
					Female	Male	Female	Male
	0.649	77431	108.8	10.7	17.3	39.7	58.0	63.9
Sub-Saharan Africa	0.572	551	103.0	23.3	25.3	33.9	64.9	84.6
Low HDI countries	0.590	553	101.8	22.0	14.8	25.9	60.3	77.1

2.1.2 Desired Outcomes in Human Capital Development

Table 2.5, on the following page, shows the relationships between the high-level goals, national targets, and desired development outcomes of Pillar One as they compare to the SDGs and the AU Agenda 2063. Despite the recent reversal in development gains attributable to the twin shocks of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak and the price collapse of Liberia’s export commodities, there is a great opportunity to build upon progress made in education outcomes over the past decade.

^{Table 2.5:}

Pillar One--Power to the People

^{Table 2.5:}

Pillar One--Power to the People

GOAL: To empower Liberians with the tools to gain control of their lives; reaching the furthest first and leaving no one behind

CORRESPONDING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS (SDG) FOR 2030: Goal 1: No poverty Goal 2: Zero hunger Goal 3: Good health and well-being Goal 4: Quality education Goal 5: Gender equality Goal 8: Decent work and economic growth Goal 10: Reduced inequalities CORRESPONDING AGENDA 2063 ASPIRATIONS: Aspiration 1-A prosperous Africa based on inclusive growth and sustainable development Aspiration 6-An Africa whose development is people-driven, relying on the potential offered by African People, especially its women and youth and caring for children

HUMAN CAPACITY FOR A KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY – Expanding equitable access to Education, Technical Vocational Training, and to Information and Communication Technology DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME: Achieving more inclusive and higher quality education with greater access to ICT through the life cycle of all Liberians

ACCESS TO HEALTH FOR ALL-Improving wellbeing for all through intensified collaboration with development partners and the private sector DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME: : Increased and inclusive access to quality essential health and reduced overall morbidity/mortality with special focus on HIV/AIDS, TB, malaria and major RMNCAH outcomes as well as for the survivors of SGBV

GENDER EQUALITY- Enhancing inclusiveness of women and girls to reduce inequalities in political, social, and economic life DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME: Gender equality entrenched as a cross-cutting concern leading to more empowered women and girls

YOUTH DEVELOPMENT-Transforming the demographic dividend into a driver for growth and transformation DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME: Increased access to integrated services for At Risk Youth and Young Adults

SOCIAL PROTECTION--Improved social protection system for effective and efficient service delivery DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME: Expansion to the social safety net through social assistance, scaled-up cash transfer, and inclusion through work opportunities to reduce vulnerability and extreme poverty among disadvantaged groups and regions

View Table

^{Table 2.5:}

Pillar One--Power to the People

GOAL: To empower Liberians with the tools to gain control of their lives; reaching the furthest first and leaving no one behind

CORRESPONDING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS (SDG) FOR 2030: Goal 1: No poverty Goal 2: Zero hunger Goal 3: Good health and well-being Goal 4: Quality education Goal 5: Gender equality Goal 8: Decent work and economic growth Goal 10: Reduced inequalities CORRESPONDING AGENDA 2063 ASPIRATIONS: Aspiration 1-A prosperous Africa based on inclusive growth and sustainable development Aspiration 6-An Africa whose development is people-driven, relying on the potential offered by African People, especially its women and youth and caring for children

HUMAN CAPACITY FOR A KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY – Expanding equitable access to Education, Technical Vocational Training, and to Information and Communication Technology DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME: Achieving more inclusive and higher quality education with greater access to ICT through the life cycle of all Liberians

ACCESS TO HEALTH FOR ALL-Improving wellbeing for all through intensified collaboration with development partners and the private sector DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME: : Increased and inclusive access to quality essential health and reduced overall morbidity/mortality with special focus on HIV/AIDS, TB, malaria and major RMNCAH outcomes as well as for the survivors of SGBV

GENDER EQUALITY- Enhancing inclusiveness of women and girls to reduce inequalities in political, social, and economic life DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME: Gender equality entrenched as a cross-cutting concern leading to more empowered women and girls

YOUTH DEVELOPMENT-Transforming the demographic dividend into a driver for growth and transformation DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME: Increased access to integrated services for At Risk Youth and Young Adults

SOCIAL PROTECTION--Improved social protection system for effective and efficient service delivery DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME: Expansion to the social safety net through social assistance, scaled-up cash transfer, and inclusion through work opportunities to reduce vulnerability and extreme poverty among disadvantaged groups and regions

The four outcomes listed in the table are interlinked for a clear majority of Liberians given the demographic profile of the country; but more so for women and girls (gender), children, people living with disability, and the large number of youths striving to make a meaningful and sustainable transition into adulthood. The outcomes cut across all social sectors. Given the influence of women inequality on the overall HDI of Liberia, women and girls issues are reflected in all four outcomes.

2.2.1 Basic Education and Technical Vocational Education and Training (TVET)

Progress has been made in increasing school enrollment, but Primary Net Enrollment Rate (NER) in Liberia is significantly lower than rates in Low Income Countries (LIC) in Sub-Saharan Africa. Figure 2.1 displays a persistent gap in NER from 2013 to 2015. Moreover, approximately 82 percent of primary students and 75 percent of children in Early Childhood Education (ECE) are above age for their grade levels.

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Liberia vs Sub-Saharan Africa LIC Net Enrollment Rates

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2021, 010; 10.5089/9781513566313.002.A001

Sources: MOE EMIS 2016 and World Bank databases

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On a more positive note, NER was even for male and female students across all academic levels as can be seen in Figure 2.2; but nearly two thirds (61.5%) of schools do not have a library. Media centers with computers are virtually non-existent or nonfunctional. Only 58 percent of schools have latrine facilities segregated for boys and girls. At higher grade levels, retention of female students is a challenge.

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Liberia vs Sub-Saharan Africa LIC Net Enrollment Rates

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2021, 010; 10.5089/9781513566313.002.A001

Source: MOE EMIS 2016

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Women remain woefully under-represented in the makeup of the instructional staff. Figure 2.3 shows overall less than 10 percent of teachers are female, creating a potentially demotivating absence of appropriate gender role models in the classroom environment during critical stages of the physical, psychological, and emotional development of girls. Figure 2.4 is organized by ownership types of schools. It shows public schools with the lowest proportion of female teachers. Figure 2.4 shows ownership of schools across all grade levels. Only 48 percent of schools are owned and operated by the government. The average number of students per teacher in public schools range from as high as 158:1 in primary grades to 93 to 1 in Senior High School. The estimated deficit of qualified public-school teachers in 2017 was 7,600.

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Teachers by Gender by School Ownership

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2021, 010; 10.5089/9781513566313.002.A001

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Ownership of Schools

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2021, 010; 10.5089/9781513566313.002.A001

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To get the maximum return on investment in human capital, efforts should start in the early years of life. Early childhood is a critical developmental window when a child’s abilities or disabilities can be identified to aid further development. Early Childhood Development encompasses all aspects of children’s development including cognitive, social, emotional and physical abilities. In 2015, 13% of children aged 0–4 years were enrolled in ECD programs. Children in urban areas (19%) were more likely to receive ECD services than children in rural areas (9.8%).

In Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math (STEM) and in TVET, programs are underdeveloped, and no national qualification framework or competence-driven curriculum exists. In addition to low standards of instruction, there is a severe mismatch between disciplines pursued by students and the current and future demand for skills in the economy. Figure 2.5 shows current enrollment by discipline in TVET programs. The forecast by MOE shows a potential demand for 620,000 skilled workers to fulfill industry demand by 2030 (Table 2.6).

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Current Enrollment by Discipline (11 most common skills)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2021, 010; 10.5089/9781513566313.002.A001

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^{Table 2.6:}

Market-Based Demand for Skills by 2030

^{Table 2.6:}

Market-Based Demand for Skills by 2030

Sector	Current skill related jobs	Potential skill related Jobs by 2030
Oil Palm & oil palm Manufacturing	37,700	156,000
Rubber & rubber product manufacturing	49,000	267,000
Cocoa and Cocoa product manufacturing	30,000	100,000
Agriculture & Food Processing	2,500	35,000
Fisheries and fish processing	30,000	38,000
Other light manufacturing	3,000	24,000
Total	152,000	620,000

View Table

^{Table 2.6:}

Market-Based Demand for Skills by 2030

Sector	Current skill related jobs	Potential skill related Jobs by 2030
Oil Palm & oil palm Manufacturing	37,700	156,000
Rubber & rubber product manufacturing	49,000	267,000
Cocoa and Cocoa product manufacturing	30,000	100,000
Agriculture & Food Processing	2,500	35,000
Fisheries and fish processing	30,000	38,000
Other light manufacturing	3,000	24,000
Total	152,000	620,000

2.2.2 Higher Education

Thirty-four Higher Institutions of Learning (HIL) comprise the network of degree granting institutions in Liberia. Table 2.7 shows the breakout by ownership and specialization. Five are specialized institutions in health and education and one is a distance learning program. HIL will continue to face a litany of challenges throughout the near future.

^{Table 2.7:}

Higher Institutions of Learning in Liberia

^{Table 2.7:}

Higher Institutions of Learning in Liberia

Category	Number
Public University	2
Private University	7
Private Colleges	12
National Teachers College (public)	2
Specialized Health Institutions (public and private)	3
Distance Learning Center (public program)	1
Community colleges (public)	7

View Table

^{Table 2.7:}

Higher Institutions of Learning in Liberia

Category	Number
Public University	2
Private University	7
Private Colleges	12
National Teachers College (public)	2
Specialized Health Institutions (public and private)	3
Distance Learning Center (public program)	1
Community colleges (public)	7

The most fundamental of which is the ‘failure of aspiration’ of thousands of youth who graduate with the academic accreditation but cannot find suitable opportunities due to a lethargic growth of formal sector employment opportunities. Furthermore, the rapid growth in the number of privately-owned institutions have not been accompanied by significant improvement in academic standards or innovation in pedagogics. Finally, the shortage of instructional staff, infrastructure deficits, and affordability of higher education relative to the financial ability of students will continue to constrain capacity to meet the higher education needs of the country over the medium term.

Moreover, higher education studies are presented from an Anglo-Eurocentric perspective that emphasizes the culture and achievements of Westerners. This view impedes a positive view of African culture, law, and governance, that potentially thwarts national unity. In part, the limited historical and cultural relevance of higher education in Liberia underscores the lack of a common identity, which has contributed to self-inficted tragedies. While Liberians must acknowledge that the study of other nations’ historical and cultural subjects is relevant, such studies must not take precedence over a national historical and cultural perspective to educating our children about our rich triple heritage and the centrality of the unifying and transformative power of education in African societies.

Going forward, this national Development Plan (2018–2023) underscores the beginning of an audacious attempt to design and migrate to curricula of relevance or vision for modernizing both human and material resources so HIL’s can live up to both the cultural commitments, the demand for technical skills, and the demand for a more Africa regional outlook within an increasingly competitive global environment.

The autonomous National Commission on Higher Education intends to create a comprehensive and cohesive group of higher education institutions that will focus on providing the specialized skills needed by priority sectors of national development (e.g., agriculture, infrastructure, health, education, fisheries, and forestry), extend the possibilities for second chance opportunities, develop affiliated businesses that use the creative capacity of the higher education community to generate income and economic potential for the country, and enable the intellect of Liberia to apply its potential for national wealth creation and to African cultural resurgence.

2.2.3 Challenges going Forward

The challenges that will face the education sector going forward fall into three categories:

1. expanding good quality education infrastructure (including improving access to ICT for men and women)

2. improving instructional quality, impact, and achieving gender balance in the classroom

3. delivering more relevant skills to meet the demand of the growing economy and the competitive global knowledge environment.

2.2.4 Strategic Priorities for Basic Education and TVET 2018 to 2023

The complete results framework establishing targets at all education levels and the strategies for addressing the challenges over the next five years can be found in Annex I. In keeping with the principles of “leave no one behind”, the framework is structure to reflect interventions at each stage of the life cycle of Liberians. The high-level national targets are linked to the SDGs. Table 2.8 presents a framework in terms of the short to medium-term priorities in basic education and TVET; while Table 2.9 is for higher education.

^{Table 2.8:}

Short to Medium Term Priorities for Basic Education and TVET

^{Table 2.8:}

Short to Medium Term Priorities for Basic Education and TVET

High-Level National Targets	Short-Term Interventions	Medium-Term Interventions	Long-Term Interventions
Reduce Early Childhood Education (ECE) student to classroom ratio below 50:1 in all counties and rollout standardized curricula and specialized ECE training	Develop standardized curricula and sustainable programs in early childhood education, ensuring that capacities are built for this level of the system; Ensure through systematic monitoring that schools and institutions operating such programs conform to the curricula & standards	School renovation and classroom construction in targeted counties where ECE classes are overcrowded; New and existing school’s construction and upgrading of facilities	Inter-sectorial collaboration with other Ministries and nongovernment partners to ensure delivery of integrated services of components required to sustain early childhood programs, addressing fees at the ECE level
Ensure that 70% of male and female Senior High School Students will pass WASSCE with a score of Division 1–6	Introduce competency and demand driven skills curriculum; rollout 3 track multidisciplinary high school curriculum; upgrade learning resource centers and provide well-equipped labs	Introduce specialized training for STEM teachers; mandatory continuous professional development for teachers and principals; facilities upgrade, recruit qualified STEM teachers	Establish 3 regional STEM institutions
Increase the proportion of appropriately qualified and trained teachers to 60%; and double the number of female teachers in public school classrooms	Remove unqualified/delinquent teachers from the payroll, invest in training B-Certifcates and hiring more teachers with Bachelor’s degrees,	Establish teacher licensing system to qualify and train to teachers to teach the grades and subjects assigned; Roll out specialized training and certifcation for ECE teachers	Construct housing for teachers in remote communities
Provide lifelong learning opportunities through market driven TVET and Alternative Learning skills	Expand alternative learning programs to areas of low adult literacy; Implement a national service program recruiting adults to receive on-the-job skills training in areas that support the education sector	Upgrade 4 TVET institutes	Certify BWI to award degrees in TVET to train and license TVET instructors

View Table

^{Table 2.8:}

Short to Medium Term Priorities for Basic Education and TVET

High-Level National Targets	Short-Term Interventions	Medium-Term Interventions	Long-Term Interventions
Reduce Early Childhood Education (ECE) student to classroom ratio below 50:1 in all counties and rollout standardized curricula and specialized ECE training	Develop standardized curricula and sustainable programs in early childhood education, ensuring that capacities are built for this level of the system; Ensure through systematic monitoring that schools and institutions operating such programs conform to the curricula & standards	School renovation and classroom construction in targeted counties where ECE classes are overcrowded; New and existing school’s construction and upgrading of facilities	Inter-sectorial collaboration with other Ministries and nongovernment partners to ensure delivery of integrated services of components required to sustain early childhood programs, addressing fees at the ECE level
Ensure that 70% of male and female Senior High School Students will pass WASSCE with a score of Division 1–6	Introduce competency and demand driven skills curriculum; rollout 3 track multidisciplinary high school curriculum; upgrade learning resource centers and provide well-equipped labs	Introduce specialized training for STEM teachers; mandatory continuous professional development for teachers and principals; facilities upgrade, recruit qualified STEM teachers	Establish 3 regional STEM institutions
Increase the proportion of appropriately qualified and trained teachers to 60%; and double the number of female teachers in public school classrooms	Remove unqualified/delinquent teachers from the payroll, invest in training B-Certifcates and hiring more teachers with Bachelor’s degrees,	Establish teacher licensing system to qualify and train to teachers to teach the grades and subjects assigned; Roll out specialized training and certifcation for ECE teachers	Construct housing for teachers in remote communities
Provide lifelong learning opportunities through market driven TVET and Alternative Learning skills	Expand alternative learning programs to areas of low adult literacy; Implement a national service program recruiting adults to receive on-the-job skills training in areas that support the education sector	Upgrade 4 TVET institutes	Certify BWI to award degrees in TVET to train and license TVET instructors

^{Table 2.9:}

Short to Medium Term Priorities in Higher Institutions of Learning

^{Table 2.9:}

Short to Medium Term Priorities in Higher Institutions of Learning

High-Level National Target	Short-Term Interventions	Medium-Term Interventions	Long-Term Interventions
Rollout a more structured strategy for improving the relevance of HIL for men and women around six core thrusts by 2020	Identify programs to offer in fields which align with professional manpower needs for economic development around science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM)	Harmonize and roll out curriculum with English West African Countries; Conduct comparative cost-effectiveness study in financing the offering of five disciplines in three HIL’s	Establish quality assurance mechanism; and strengthen accreditation system

View Table

^{Table 2.9:}

Short to Medium Term Priorities in Higher Institutions of Learning

High-Level National Target	Short-Term Interventions	Medium-Term Interventions	Long-Term Interventions
Rollout a more structured strategy for improving the relevance of HIL for men and women around six core thrusts by 2020	Identify programs to offer in fields which align with professional manpower needs for economic development around science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM)	Harmonize and roll out curriculum with English West African Countries; Conduct comparative cost-effectiveness study in financing the offering of five disciplines in three HIL’s	Establish quality assurance mechanism; and strengthen accreditation system

2.2.5 Strategic Priorities for Higher Education 2018 to 2023

The government commits to reviewing the challenges of delivering Higher Education through a structured approach. In FY2018/19, a comprehensive assessment of Higher Institutions of Learning (HIL) will be completed. Thereafter, six core thrusts will be the focus of HIL over the PAPD period:

• 1. Create a strategic, systematic, and affordable long-term plan for higher education transformation

• 2. Reinforce the governance and management system of higher education

• 3. Improve the cultural and economic relevance, level of capacity, accessibility, and participation in higher education; in the context of emerging demands for highly skilled and culturally-sensitive professionals in government and in the private sector

• 4. Enhance the quality of higher education pedagogy and infrastructure to be at par with regional standards

• 5. Rationalize the disciplines on offer and the content of degree-granting programs among the network of community colleges to make them more relevant to anticipated local demand for a mid-level professional workforce

• 6. Build strategic partnerships with HIL overseas for the long-term growth of higher education institutions

2.3.1 Improving Health Service Delivery and Infrastructure

The government recognizes that access to basic health care through the life cycle of all Liberians is a critical contributor to economic productivity and is a function of a healthy and thriving citizenry. Whether they are engaged in productive activities in the formal or informal sector, a healthy workforce is critical to the successful attainment of the Vision 2030 objective of becoming a united and prosperous nation. Moreover, to earn a substantial demographic dividend, our largely youthful population must live long, healthy, and productive lives to reach their economic potential. To this end, it is understood that access to basic health will be a fundamental contributor to the evolution of human capital that will drive our socio-economic development agenda.

Over the past decade, enormous progress has been made in the Health Sector. Significant gains were made in improving performance on major Reproductive, Maternal, Newborn, Child and Adolescent Health (RMNCAH) indicators. RMNCAH services are now available across the 15 counties. Skilled birth attendant to population is now 11.8 per 10,000 population from 4 per 1000 in 2006 (MOH); while infant mortality is now 54 per 1,000 live births, compared to 72 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2007(LDHS). Infant mortality declined from 71 deaths per 1,000 live births to 54 deaths per 1,000 live births; neonatal mortality decreased from 32 to 26, and under five mortality also decrease from 110 to 94 deaths per 1,000 live births.

Liberia had a generalized HIV epidemic with reproductive aged population showing prevalence of 2.1% (2013 LDHS) with an estimated adult HIV population of 25,000–35,000 by the end of 2015. Spectrum data estimated that 87% of the overall HIV population were adults of which 12% were aged 15–24 years. Females constituted 53% of all PLHIV in the country.³²

Contraceptive prevalence increased among currently married women from 10.3 in 2007 to 19.1 percent in 2013 and among sexually active un-married women from 23.1 in 2007 to 34.6 in 2013 (LDHS). Teenage pregnancy still stands at 31 percent demanding a differentiated approach to adolescent health service. Population access to healthcare within 5KM or 1-hour walk is 71 percent--up from 41 percent in 2008 (NHPC & LDHS).

Community Health Assistance Program: Community Health Assistants (CHA’s) are delivering an integrated and standardized service delivery package, which includes curative, preventive, promotive, rehabilitative and palliative services, to households located more than one-hour walk (more than 5km) from the nearest health facility. Households located within 5km of a health facility, are receiving tailored package of services delivered by other community cadres. To date, 76.2 percent or 2,904 of the overall targeted 4,000 CHAs have been recruited, trained, and deployed in 13 counties. The CHA program is a promising approach that can, potentially, change the narrative around health care delivery in Liberia.

Communicable Diseases: Malaria is endemic, and the entire population is at risk of the disease. Children under five and pregnant women are the most affected groups. According to data from the Health Facility Survey (HFS, 2013) malaria accounted for 42 percent of outpatient department attendance and 39 percent of in-patient deaths. The total number of cases reported between 2016 and 2017, however, has fallen by nearly 29 percent from 1,517,115 to 1,069,880. TB case notifcation improved by 24 percent in 2015, thus, placing the overall notifcation at 7,119 (56%) at the end of 2016. Liberia TB treatment success rate has increased from 68 percent in 2015 to 76 percent in 2016.

The Liberia Demographic and Health Survey of 2013 (LDHS) estimates the national HIV prevalence rate among sexually-active adults (15–49 years) to be 2.1 percent, with variations based on sex, age range, geography, and socio-economic status. Leprosy is still a public health concern, with prevalence (3.61/10000) above the World Health Organization (WHO) threshold.

Prevalence of other Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTD) remains very high. Mass Drug Administration for the elimination and control is ongoing in all counties for Onchocerciasis and Soil transmitted helminths. Lymphatic Filariasis Mass Drug Administration in ongoing in 13 counties except for Bomi and Gbarpolu. Schistosomiasis Mass Drug Administration is ongoing in 13 counties except for Rivercess and Grand Kru.

Non-Communicable Diseases: Liberia has only one psychiatrist, no doctoral level psychologists, and few social workers (WHO-AIMS 2017). Liberia needs over 1,000 mental health professionals. Also, WHO estimates that Liberia needs 427 trained psychiatric nurses (9.5 for every 100,000 population). There is one psychiatric referral hospital and four Wellness Units.

Cancer remains a serious issue. Only two (2) public and one (1) private facility are currently screening for cancer. There is little or no access to chemotherapy and radiotherapy, thus rendering cancer treatment services very inadequate. Eye health is available but at a high cost in Monrovia. Outside of Monrovia limited eye care is available at a few secondary hospitals--Ganta, Phebe, Zwedru, Fishtown, Harper, Barclayville and Greenville.

Immunization: Liberia added new antigens into its routine immunization program. The antigens are Yellow Fever – 2007; Pentavalent Vaccine – 2009 replacing DPT; Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine – 2014; Rotavirus Containing Vaccine, RCV -2016; and Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Demonstration in Bong & Nimba Counties and Inactivated Polio Vaccine, IPV – 2017.

Drugs and Medical Supplies: Enormous progress has been made in setting into place the institutional framework for an effective supply chain management system. A temporary quality testing lab will house the Liberia Medicines and Health Products Regulatory Agency (LMHRA), while the construction of a new testing lab that meets ISO standard is being planned. A central warehouse on the outskirts of the capital is 85 percent completed with pending occupancy in June. The warehouse will receive, store and distribute medicines and medical supplies throughout the Healthcare System. The LMHRA is currently receiving and evaluating medicines and health products for registration.

Diagnostic Services: Diagnostic capacity has improved over the years. Molecular diagnostic and Microbiology techniques are up and running at the National Reference Laboratory (NRL), and at Phebe and Tappita hospitals. About 70 percent of the laboratory infrastructure at JDJ hospital has been improved. Notwithstanding, capacity for diagnostic is still limited due to a combination of infrastructure deficits, inadequate human resource and technical capacities, and inadequate or lack of modern diagnostic equipment.

Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR): Post EVD outbreak, preventing and controlling public health threats and mitigating related risks are national priorities. Among several strategies put in place to address threats is a functional public health surveillance system with an early warning system which uses the IDSR platform. The system in managed by the newly-established National Public Health Institute of Liberia (NPHI).

Eleven of the 15 counties experienced disease outbreaks and humanitarian emergencies with the most frequent being measles (20), Lassa fever (5) and pertussis (5). The high frequency of measles outbreaks may be related to its endemicity and the high number of susceptible children in the population. Recurring outbreaks of Lassa fever were also noted particularly in Nimba and Bong counties. Two health-related emergencies involving food and mudslides in Margibi and Bong Counties as well as an incident of chemical spills in Bong County were reported.

2.3.2 Challenges going forward

Notwithstanding the foregoing, there are daunting challenges confronting the health sector that need inter-sectorial as well as multi-sectorial collaboration and investments to mitigate. Key among these challenges are:

1. High maternal and under five mortalities

2. Heavy reliance on donor financing and high out of pocket expenditure

3. Inaccessibility to healthcare for 29 percent of the population (largely rural areas)

4. A relatively large, and yet insufficient, health workforce that requires substantial investments and skills upgrading

5. Looming health threats due to diseases of epidemic potential

High maternal (774 per 100,000 live births) and under five deaths (94 per 1,000 live births) are undesirable. Government will strive to improve the current situation by investing in cost effective and sustainable strategies that will reduce mortality and the suffering of citizens.

Despite the introduction of the Essential Package of Health Services (EPHS), only 56 percent of health facilities are ready to provide services according to the general readiness index; according to the Service Availability and Readiness Assessment (SARA) 2018 survey. Despite a 15 percent increase in the number of health service delivery points from 2016 to 2018, availability of essential medicines reduced by 8 percent. Table 2.10 shows density of services per unit population.

^{Table 2.10:}

Density of Health Services per Unit Population

^{Table 2.10:}

Density of Health Services per Unit Population

Health Services	Density per unit population
Population living within 5KM in Liberia	71%
Health infrastructure per 10,000 population	1 (standard is 2)
Inpatient beds per 10,000 population	6.3 (standard is 25)
Maternity beds per 1,000 pregnant women	4 (standard is 10)
Core health workers per 10,000 population	11.8 (WHO standard is 23) with three out of 15 counties with as low as 1–3 per 10,000 population.
Outpatient visits per person per year	1.8 (standard is 3–5)
Health facilities have basic amenities (water, electricity and sanitary facilities)	57%
Laboratory diagnostics capacity on average	facilities were able to perform 1 out of 12 tests
Availability of basic equipment	19% of health facilities
Facilities with all requirements for standard score for standard precaution	was only at 11%,
Essential medicines were available on average	66%
General score for health centers 2017	59%

View Table

^{Table 2.10:}

Density of Health Services per Unit Population

Health Services	Density per unit population
Population living within 5KM in Liberia	71%
Health infrastructure per 10,000 population	1 (standard is 2)
Inpatient beds per 10,000 population	6.3 (standard is 25)
Maternity beds per 1,000 pregnant women	4 (standard is 10)
Core health workers per 10,000 population	11.8 (WHO standard is 23) with three out of 15 counties with as low as 1–3 per 10,000 population.
Outpatient visits per person per year	1.8 (standard is 3–5)
Health facilities have basic amenities (water, electricity and sanitary facilities)	57%
Laboratory diagnostics capacity on average	facilities were able to perform 1 out of 12 tests
Availability of basic equipment	19% of health facilities
Facilities with all requirements for standard score for standard precaution	was only at 11%,
Essential medicines were available on average	66%
General score for health centers 2017	59%

The capacity for mental health service delivery is limited. Limited skilled workforce, infrastructures, and access to psychotropic medications are among the challenges faced in effective service delivery.

Malnutrition remains a major public health concern affecting mostly children under-five. Approximately 32 per cent of children under five are stunted (short for their age), 59 per cent are micronutrient deficient, 6 per cent are wasted (thin for their height) and 5 per cent are under weight (thin for their age). The national prevalence of stunting reduced from 39.4 percent (DHS, 2007) to 32 percent (DHS,2013) and has since plateaued. The government will increase awareness and sensitization on nutrition program and scale up 10 direct nutrition interventions across the life cycle.

2.3.3 Financing Health Care

2.3.4 Partnerships in Healthcare Delivery

The number of functional government facilities increased by 32 percent between 2006 and 2015; while private health facilities increased more than 40 times (by 425%). But about 200 of the 252 private health facilities in 2015 were in Montserrado county. Figure 2.6 illustrates the growing involvement of the private sector in delivering health care. Partly because of this growth in the number of private health facilities, 86 percent of the population living in urban areas lived less that one hour’s walk from a health facility by 2015—more than 4 out of every 5 city residents now live less than 40 minutes’ walk away. The challenge for city dwellers is affordability and quality.

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Number of Health Facilities by Ownership

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2021, 010; 10.5089/9781513566313.002.A001

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Government acknowledges that “wastage and use of resources for purposes other than they were intended”³⁵ and corruption remains a major impediment to improving public health service delivery-along with shortage of skilled workers and health care professionals, and a costly hospital component (38% of government funds) when most of the disease burden can be averted with community health and preventive measures. Therefore, the government sees both nonprofit and private actors as strategic partners in health service delivery well into the future and will continue to build productive relationships over the period of this NDP.

2.3.5 Strategic Priorities for Essential Health Services 2018 to 2023

To expand access to health and address persistent morbidity and mortality, the PAPD commits to increasing access to quality health care delivery, setting into place an effective and sustainable healthcare financing arrangement, and reducing morbidity and mortality with special focus on malaria (42% of morbidity) and on reproductive, maternal, newborn, child, and adolescent health (RMNCAH).

In this regard, the PAPD aims to achieve eight targets over the next five years. Table 2.11 provides a list of those targets, the corresponding SDG goals, the strategies to achieve the targets along with the sets of priority programs and activities. The corresponding results framework also includes the intersectoral linkages that will be critical to achieving the targets and can be found in Annex III. The eight targets to be achieved by 2023 are as follows:

• 1. Reduce maternal mortality ratio from 774 to 497 per 100,000 live births

• 2. Reduce Under-5 mortality ratio to 57 per 1000 live births

• 3. Reduce Under-5 stunting (malnutrition) from 32 percent to 22 percent

• 4. Reduce malaria prevalence by more than half to 20 percent

• 5. Raise the share of rural population living within 5KM of service delivery point to 75 percent

• 6. Ensure that ninety percent of public health facilities report no stock out of essential medicines

• 7. Respond to 100 percent of disease outbreaks within 48 hours

• 8. Reduce out of pocket payments to 35 percent of total health care cost through sustainable health financing mechanism.

^{Table 2.11:}

Short to Medium Term Priorities in Providing Essential Health Services

^{Table 2.11:}

Short to Medium Term Priorities in Providing Essential Health Services

High Level National Targets	Short-Term Interventions	Medium-Term Interventions	Long-term Interventions
Maternal mortality ratio: 49736 per 100,000 live births by 2023 Increase access and improved system delivery of quality healthcare and reduced overall morbidity and mortality with special focus on malaria, major RMNCAH outcomes, and disease surveillance and response	Train, and equitably deploy health care providers (CMs, RNs,PAs & MDs) in CEmONC and BEmONC services. Carry out routine ANC based ITNs and periodic ITNs distributions nationwide and Scale up IPT uptake to prevent malaria in pregnancy	Heighten maternal death surveillance and response Provide and maintain ambulances to strengthen referrals networks Provide medicines and supplies to strengthen community case management for malaria, Carry out education and clients/defaulters tracing for HIV&TB through CHAs	Scale up family planning Services and train health care providers and mentors to deliver adolescent friendly health services including Sexual Reproductive Health and family planning for both in and out of school adolescents using multi-sectoral approach
Provide more effective health financing and training of health care workers with up to date technology	Validate health financing reform strategy and implement in phases	Develop, enact and implement Liberia Health Equity Fund (LHEF) legislation, Train, equip, incentivize and deploy health workers throughout the country	Enroll 90% of professional health workers on the GOL payroll that are contractors and provide motivational packages base on area of assignment

View Table

^{Table 2.11:}

Short to Medium Term Priorities in Providing Essential Health Services

High Level National Targets	Short-Term Interventions	Medium-Term Interventions	Long-term Interventions
Maternal mortality ratio: 49736 per 100,000 live births by 2023 Increase access and improved system delivery of quality healthcare and reduced overall morbidity and mortality with special focus on malaria, major RMNCAH outcomes, and disease surveillance and response	Train, and equitably deploy health care providers (CMs, RNs,PAs & MDs) in CEmONC and BEmONC services. Carry out routine ANC based ITNs and periodic ITNs distributions nationwide and Scale up IPT uptake to prevent malaria in pregnancy	Heighten maternal death surveillance and response Provide and maintain ambulances to strengthen referrals networks Provide medicines and supplies to strengthen community case management for malaria, Carry out education and clients/defaulters tracing for HIV&TB through CHAs	Scale up family planning Services and train health care providers and mentors to deliver adolescent friendly health services including Sexual Reproductive Health and family planning for both in and out of school adolescents using multi-sectoral approach
Provide more effective health financing and training of health care workers with up to date technology	Validate health financing reform strategy and implement in phases	Develop, enact and implement Liberia Health Equity Fund (LHEF) legislation, Train, equip, incentivize and deploy health workers throughout the country	Enroll 90% of professional health workers on the GOL payroll that are contractors and provide motivational packages base on area of assignment

2.4.1 Vulnerability and Inequality

To end vulnerability, and reduce gender and social inequality, the government of Liberia has passed into law, ratified, and acceded to thirty domestic and international conventions. These include:

• 1. Constitution of the Republic of Liberia-Chapter III: Fundamental Rights

• 2. Inheritance Act of 1998 (specifies Equal Rights in Marriage and Inheritance under Customary and Statutory Laws)

• 3. The Rape Law of 2005

• 4. The Anti-Human Trafficking Act of 2005

• 5. Children’s Law of 2015

• 6. The Adoption Law of

• 7. Revised Act of the National Social Security and Welfare Corporation (NASSCORP) of 2017

• 8. The African Charter on Human and People ‘s Rights and its Protocol on the Rights of Women in Africa

• 9. AU Protocols on Children

• 10. The New Partnership for African Development (NEPAD)

• 11. The Solemn Declaration on Gender Equality in Africa (2004)

• 12. African Charter on the Rights of Women in Africa 2005

• 13. Conventions on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women (CEDAW and its Optional Protocol)

• 14. Convention on the Rights of Child of (1990) and its Optional Protocol

• 15. Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (2006)

• 16. International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (1966)

• 17. International Covenant on Economic Social and Cultural Rights (1966)

• 18. ILO Abolition of Forced Labour Convention, 1957 (No. 105)

• 19. ILO Discrimination (Employment and Occupation) Conventions, 1958 (No. 111)

• 20. ILO Worst Forms of Child Labour Convention, 1999 (No. 102)

• 21. UN Security Council Resolution 1325

• 22. UN Security Council Resolution 1820

• 23. UN Security Council Resolution 1612 (Children and Armed Conflict)

• 24. Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action (1995)

• 25. International Conference on Population and Development (1994)

• 26. United Nations Declaration on Violence Against Women (1993); MDGs (2000)

• 27. Vienna Declaration and Program of Action in 1993

• 28. Universal Declaration of Human Rights

• 29. Millennium Declaration (MDGs)

• 30. Sustainable Development Goals (SDG)

The government is committed to ensuring that all domestic policies and practices conform to the agreed values, codes, and standards contained in these commitments as well as other relevant treaties, conventions and instruments adopted through international platforms. Nevertheless, the government recognizes that fiscal space is limited; and the capacity to gather and organize impact and service delivery information in a systematic way to feed into a high-level decision-making process is also limited. Institutional knowledge and knowledge retention on the related policies and strategies are weak areas. Understanding concepts, unpacking them, and utilizing them to drive policy and strategies are specific areas that need strengthening at senior and mid management levels of the responsible MACs that are the duty-bearers of these instruments.

As a part of the effort to leave no one behind, the government sees poor, disadvantaged, and vulnerable groups in the population as part of our national assets. Fulflling government’s commitment to include them into our national development plan in substantive ways is a strategy of the PAPD. Therefore, issues concerning women and girls’ empowerment, at-risk children and youths, people with disability, people living with HIV, and EVD survivors are included in efforts to reduce absolute poverty by an additional 23 percent and widespread vulnerability over the next six years.

Similarly, investment in social protection was a new policy area injected into the AfT as part of the transition from humanitarian assistance. The experience with using this policy tool to reduce vulnerability and decrease poverty (finance, food, and fuel crisis) levels is therefore limited but evolving. The intervening EVD outbreak, saw national priorities return to life-saving humanitarian assistance, upending prospects of a smooth transition to sustainable development, and exacerbating widespread vulnerability once again. Moreover, all the SP programs under the AfT were donor-funded and delivered by the end of 2017.

No comprehensive review of the implementation of the National Social Protection Policy has been done. Nevertheless, the initial and very limited evidence available from the final evaluation of the pilot social cash transfers (SCT) to poor, food insecure, and labor constrained households in Bomi and Maryland counties, suggests that food security, health, education, and economic conditions of participating households improved markedly. Moreover, the evaluation found evidence of a multiplier effect benefiting the 52 communities and the local economies where beneficiaries reside.

2.4.2 Children Protection

2.4.3 Empowering Women and Girls

Liberia ranks among the lowest 10 countries on the Gender Inequality Index (GII) reflecting pervasive disparity across political, social, and economic dimensions. There is a revised gender policy available to guide the mainstreaming of gender issues in Liberia. Several reports on the domestication and implementation of international treaties, including those related to women and girls, have been drafied and validated.

The government commits to using the findings and recommendations to inform an update to the guide to enforcing mainstreaming gender issues. Regarding SGBV, seven safe homes for survivors of gender-based violence were established and will be sustained. The legal aspects of the SGBV response is also a major component of Pillar Tree interventions. Table 2.12 shows the short, medium priority interventions for women empowerment. The entire Results Framework can be found in Annex II.

^{Table 2.11:}

Short to Medium Term Priorities in Providing Essential Health Services

^{Table 2.11:}

Short to Medium Term Priorities in Providing Essential Health Services

High Level National Targets	Short-Term Interventions	Medium-Term Interventions	Long-Term Interventions
375,000 women to be empowered across the 15 counties over the next 5 years	Assess the existing status of women and girls in society and compile their needs for prioritizing and addressing to reduce the capacity deficit Ensure the allocation of public expenditure on gender equality policies is consistent with the Government’s commitment of this goal through the application of gender-responsive budgeting (GRB) for an efficient management of resources	Adopt and strengthen sound policies and enforceable legislation for the promotion of gender equality and the empowerment of all women and girls at all levels through equitable education access at all levels, and other opportunities Strengthen the implementation of the National Gender Policy to reduce and eliminate the existing discrimination against women and girls by addressing unequal outcomes between women and men	Establish in-built mechanisms for the regular and consistent monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of gendered interventions to assess their impact through the collection of gender-disaggregated data and other tools Reduce overall gender inequality index (GII) by half
Increase political participation of women at the national and local levels to reach a target of 30% by 2023	Develop methodologies and standards for collecting data on the proportion of women in leadership positions in political and public life by level and by type; extend this to the local government level where this is necessary but missing at present in partnership with United Cities & Local Governance, Africa (UCLGA)	Build women’s capacity to influence decision-making by providing a voice and a platform to determine public priorities and spending patterns to ensure adequate provision of services, guarantee their physical integrity and reproductive rights	Address the different needs of women participating in politics and decision-making at all levels, in different functions and across all spheres of government, including as voters, candidates for local, regional and national elections, members of parliament or local council, Heads of State, Government and ministers etc.
Incidence of SGBV reduced by 50% by 2023 through the provision of appropriate support services & access to justice systems	Measure the prevalence of SGBV in all its forms, particularly intimate partner violence; survey cases of SGBV against minors and take special steps to prevent and address them Raise awareness among communities about referral systems and ensure these are efficiently functioning; sensitize traditional, religious and community leaders after undertaking a social audit	Popularize SGBV concepts in academic institutions beginning with secondary schools Organize training programs at regular intervals for sustained information among the major stakeholders	Eliminate all harmful practices, such as child, early and forced marriage and female genital mutilation

View Table

^{Table 2.11:}

Short to Medium Term Priorities in Providing Essential Health Services

High Level National Targets	Short-Term Interventions	Medium-Term Interventions	Long-Term Interventions
375,000 women to be empowered across the 15 counties over the next 5 years	Assess the existing status of women and girls in society and compile their needs for prioritizing and addressing to reduce the capacity deficit Ensure the allocation of public expenditure on gender equality policies is consistent with the Government’s commitment of this goal through the application of gender-responsive budgeting (GRB) for an efficient management of resources	Adopt and strengthen sound policies and enforceable legislation for the promotion of gender equality and the empowerment of all women and girls at all levels through equitable education access at all levels, and other opportunities Strengthen the implementation of the National Gender Policy to reduce and eliminate the existing discrimination against women and girls by addressing unequal outcomes between women and men	Establish in-built mechanisms for the regular and consistent monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of gendered interventions to assess their impact through the collection of gender-disaggregated data and other tools Reduce overall gender inequality index (GII) by half
Increase political participation of women at the national and local levels to reach a target of 30% by 2023	Develop methodologies and standards for collecting data on the proportion of women in leadership positions in political and public life by level and by type; extend this to the local government level where this is necessary but missing at present in partnership with United Cities & Local Governance, Africa (UCLGA)	Build women’s capacity to influence decision-making by providing a voice and a platform to determine public priorities and spending patterns to ensure adequate provision of services, guarantee their physical integrity and reproductive rights	Address the different needs of women participating in politics and decision-making at all levels, in different functions and across all spheres of government, including as voters, candidates for local, regional and national elections, members of parliament or local council, Heads of State, Government and ministers etc.
Incidence of SGBV reduced by 50% by 2023 through the provision of appropriate support services & access to justice systems	Measure the prevalence of SGBV in all its forms, particularly intimate partner violence; survey cases of SGBV against minors and take special steps to prevent and address them Raise awareness among communities about referral systems and ensure these are efficiently functioning; sensitize traditional, religious and community leaders after undertaking a social audit	Popularize SGBV concepts in academic institutions beginning with secondary schools Organize training programs at regular intervals for sustained information among the major stakeholders	Eliminate all harmful practices, such as child, early and forced marriage and female genital mutilation

2.4.4 Investing in Social Protection

Within the context of the PAPD, social protection (SP) is a long-term investment strategy supporting the development of Liberia’s human capital resource. The investment compliments efforts to return the economy to strong growth and yields immediate gains on efforts to reduce both poverty levels and economic inequality. Trough the social protection strategy, significant reductions will be made in every MPI indicator in every region.

The previous NDP’s achieved strong growth from a narrow economic base, realized modest reduction in poverty, but increased regional inequality. Under this NDP, the government will leverage SP investments to reduce regional inequality, unemployment and underemployment, expand access to finance for food insecure and labor constrained households, capitalize microenterprises, and stimulate local demand and supply for goods and services that can be provided by the local private sector.

The government will also leverage SP investments to address risks and vulnerability, as well as poverty through a system of cash or in-kind transfers—through both contributory and noncontributory programs. Given Liberia’s history, the government also commits to enforcement of laws that convey appropriate rights and protection to citizens with special attention given to disadvantaged groups.

2.4.4.2 Providing Basic Income, Education, and Care for Children

The Liberia Children’s Law 2011 provides a comprehensive framework for the recognition and realization of children’s rights with respect to their protection, development, and socio-economic participation. Among others, the Children’s Law details rights to: parenthood and care; an adequate standard of living; access to medically necessary health care; access to education; access to adequate shelter, food and water. This law has however not been adequately translated into SP strategies, plans, and programs to facilitate the comprehensive attainment of its objectives.

Consistent with the access to education and health objectives of the Children’s Law, fee waivers for education and health have been instituted. Public schools are subsidized at the primary and secondary level. Families, however, remain responsible for registration fees. The registration fees typically cover the difference between the funding provided to a school by the Government, and the actual operating costs of that school (World Bank, 2012). Additional education expenses include uniforms and books. Table 2.13 shows the typical out of pocket expenses incurred by households as at 2016. The national average spent by households on school related expenses is LD 8,843 per year, which translates to more than 5 USD /month. In the poorest quintile, the expenditure amounted to LD 2,271 per year, approximately a tenth of the LD 20,000 spent by the richest quintile. Poor and food insecure households in the poorest quintiles struggle to meet this modest amount; hence they will need targeted support beyond a universal fee waiver.

^{Table 2.13:}

Family Out of Pocket Expenses on Education in 2016

^{Table 2.13:}

Family Out of Pocket Expenses on Education in 2016

Expenses	National	Urban	Rural	Poorest Quintile	Richest Quintile
School fees	5,796	8,831	107	902	14,469
Books	689	919	329	225	1,261
Uniforms	1,010	1,185	737	664	1,408
Transport	75	119	7	1	273
Extra Tuition	223	319	74	86	539
Other materials	895	1,188	439	334	1,703
Extra-Curricular	69	97	24	19	172
Other contribution	86	105	57	40	177
Total	8,843	12,763	1,774	2,271	20,002

View Table

^{Table 2.13:}

Family Out of Pocket Expenses on Education in 2016

Expenses	National	Urban	Rural	Poorest Quintile	Richest Quintile
School fees	5,796	8,831	107	902	14,469
Books	689	919	329	225	1,261
Uniforms	1,010	1,185	737	664	1,408
Transport	75	119	7	1	273
Extra Tuition	223	319	74	86	539
Other materials	895	1,188	439	334	1,703
Extra-Curricular	69	97	24	19	172
Other contribution	86	105	57	40	177
Total	8,843	12,763	1,774	2,271	20,002

The main social protection programs linked to children are the Liberia Social Safety Net project (LSSN) and the School Meals programs. LSSN is a cash transfer program to extremely poor and food insecure households in the counties with the highest incidences of vulnerability, namely Bomi, Maryland, Grand Kru, and River Gee. The LSSN budget amounts to 10 million USD from 2017 to 2021 (effectively), from which 8.1 million USD will be delivered as transfers to 10,000 households. The transfers will be made to the female member in each household, with the most responsibility for household spending.

Based on the economic analysis of the poverty gap and household consumption among extremely poor households, the transfer amount is pegged at between 10 USD and 34 USD per month, depending on the size of the households. In parallel to the cash transfer, the project will also develop a Social Registry targeted to register 200,000 households in the six counties in its first phase but with the objective of becoming a national household registry.

The other major social protection intervention benefiting children is the school feeding programs. Like the LSSN project, these programs are exclusively funded by donors due to limited fiscal space in the government resource envelope. Coverage of the school feeding programs currently extends to 300,000 students, a decline from the 500,000 participants in 2015. This program provides around 300,000 school meals in nine counties. It additionally, provides take-home rations to 3,000 adolescent female students.

Most classical school feeding programs have centralized food purchasing arrangements. Two projects are currently piloting the Home-Grown School Feeding (HGSF) in three districts of Nimba County, targeting 20,000 school children. The HGSF aims to utilize local farmers to provide schools with the requisite food rations. The national HGSF initiative seeks to:

• 1. Improve food and nutrition security in vulnerable communities through increased local production and consumption of nutritious foods

• 2. Increase farmers’ income and enhance resilience to shocks by promoting access of smallholders to production inputs and market opportunities through the home-grown school feeding program;

• 3. Use the provision of daily school meals to increase enrolment to basic education and student retention, to ultimately gain academic performance improvements

The current planned expenditure of the school feeding program is equivalent to around 0.8 percent of GDP. Table 2.14 shows the number of beneficiaries, and expenditure of the two main child-related SP projects.

^{Table 2.14:}

Social Safety Net and School Feeding

^{Table 2.14:}

Social Safety Net and School Feeding

Program	Beneficiaries	Total Budget	Share of GDP	Status
Social Safety Net project	10,000 (HH)	2,000,000 USD	0.09%	On-going
School Feeding Programs	300,000	18,635,400 USD	0.8%	On-going

View Table

^{Table 2.14:}

Social Safety Net and School Feeding

Program	Beneficiaries	Total Budget	Share of GDP	Status
Social Safety Net project	10,000 (HH)	2,000,000 USD	0.09%	On-going
School Feeding Programs	300,000	18,635,400 USD	0.8%	On-going

Preliminary cost estimates to assess the feasibility of providing a universal school feeding to all pre-school and primary school children have been undertaken by the ILO and the government. The projected cost of this program, based on an annual cost estimate of 60 USD per child / per annum, to cover over 679,000 children by 2022, is expected to peak at 1.58% of GDP. Table 2.14a shows these estimates on an annual basis as percent of GDP.

^{Table 2.14-a:}

ILO Universal Pre & Primary School Feeding Cost estimates

Source: ILO calculations

^{Table 2.14-a:}

ILO Universal Pre & Primary School Feeding Cost estimates

Universal Pre & Primary School Feeding Programs	2019	2020	2021	2022
Cost (as a % of GDP)	0.39%	0.81%	1.21%	1.58%
Number of beneficiaries	129,100	295,500	467,700	679,700

Source: ILO calculations

View Table

^{Table 2.14-a:}

ILO Universal Pre & Primary School Feeding Cost estimates

Universal Pre & Primary School Feeding Programs	2019	2020	2021	2022
Cost (as a % of GDP)	0.39%	0.81%	1.21%	1.58%
Number of beneficiaries	129,100	295,500	467,700	679,700

Source: ILO calculations

In the wider context of the PAPD, scaling up the School Feeding program is considered a fundamental intervention because of its direct impact on school enrolment rate and the human development capacity of its citizens. A combination of the school feeding with local food production initiatives, is an interesting innovation which provides a multi-sectoral social protection intervention targeting school enrolment and nutritional needs for children, as well as food and income security for participating youth and working age persons. This innovation also provides an exciting prospect for developing sustainable program interventions.

2.4.3.4 Youth and Sports Development

The previous Youth, Employment, Skills (YES) program has since been replaced by the Youth Opportunities Project (2016–2020). The objectives of the Youth Opportunities Project (YOP) is to improve access to income generation opportunities by vulnerable youth, as well as to strengthen the government’s capacity to implement the embedded public works cash transfer program. The project will directly benefit about 15,000 targeted youth aged 15–35 years. To ensure gender mainstreaming, there is a goal of 50 percent participation rate by vulnerable female youth. In addition, the distribution of beneficiaries across urban and rural areas will be based on the proportion of total youth population in each area and prevalent poverty levels.

Adolescents aged 15–17 years in urban areas will benefit from pre-employment social support and career counselling. Youth aged 18–35 years will benefit from the business development support to household enterprises and productive public works. The public works component will ensure 100 days of work and training at 3 USD per day. The main target beneficiaries of national public works programs are vulnerable youth in rural areas.

There are several components to the YOP project. The first component is the pre-employment social support and household enterprises for urban youth. This component will contribute to addressing youth labor market participation and behavioral constraints through the following three sub-components; pre-employment social support, business development support to household enterprises, as well capacity and systems building of the YOP project.

The second YOP component is the productive public works and life skills support. This component will consist of two sub-components: roll-out and administration of productive public works as well as the provision of life skills. The third component is the capacity building for cash transfer program. This component aims to improve efficiency in the delivery of cash transfers to targeted households.³⁹

The Youth Entrepreneurship and Employment Project (YEEP) aims to invest in the revitalization of the capacity and program design of the Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) system. YEEP also aims to develop and deliver an entrepreneurship curriculum as well as to establish business incubation centres to support Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs).

The government notes that investment in social protection/labor market interventions for the youth has declined significantly and plans to reverse this experience through a combination of (entrepreneurial and labor-based) skills development, as well as public works and financial inclusion interventions. The current number of participants under the Employment Injury Scheme and the number of beneficiaries in the YOP can be seen in Table 2.15.

^{Table 2.15:}

Current and Anticipated Beneficiaries of Working Age Population Programs

^{Table 2.15:}

Current and Anticipated Beneficiaries of Working Age Population Programs

Program	Participants	Total Budget (US$)	Share of GDP	Status
Employment Injury	125,000	-	-	On-going
Youth Opportunities Project	15,000	3,000,000 USD	0.14%	On-going

View Table

^{Table 2.15:}

Current and Anticipated Beneficiaries of Working Age Population Programs

Program	Participants	Total Budget (US$)	Share of GDP	Status
Employment Injury	125,000	-	-	On-going
Youth Opportunities Project	15,000	3,000,000 USD	0.14%	On-going

The government also sees sports and athlete’s development as important avenues to sustainable development, as an opportunity to cut across health and education, and simultaneously contribute to the priorities identified in Pillar Tree—Sustaining the Peace and Pillar Two—Economy and Jobs. Therefore, government will restructure the under-17, under-20 and senior national teams to improve their performance and attract talented youth. Government will also build linkages to athletic programs at multilateral high schools to establish six sports academies in four regions of the country and use the investments to rehabilitate the sports infrastructures, strengthen school and grassroots community sports programs, engage nonprofit and for-profit actors in investments in athletic and sponsorship opportunities.

2.4.3.5 Providing Basic Income Security Old Age Persons

The two pension systems covering private sector employees and civil servants were merged under Revised NASSCORP Act (2017).

The reform will, amongst other things, make it easier for workers to move with their accrued pension rights when changing jobs between the public and private sector. There is no data on the exact number of employer-administered occupational pension schemes currently in existence. Generally, these occupational pension schemes only exist for large (multi-national) companies. Most of the formal sector work force have no pension coverage.

As at 2015, there were 24,509 people receiving pensions from the NASSCORP administered National Pension Program as well as the Civil Service Scheme (refer Table 2.16 below). Yet according to the 2016 Household Survey, there are 163,545 people aged 60 and above in Liberia. Therefore, approximately 85 percent of people older than 60 do not receive any pension. Limited old age income security is forcing Liberians to work almost until death. According to the 2016 Household Survey, only 30.1 percent of people older than 60; 38.7 percent of people older than 70; and 41.5 percent at age 75 and above are not working.

^{Table 2.16:}

People Receiving Pension Payments

^{Table 2.16:}

People Receiving Pension Payments

Program	Beneficiaries	Total Budget (estimated US$))	Share of GDP	Status
National Pension Service (NASSCORP administered pension for private sector workers)	8,000	4,560,000	0.21%	On-going
Civil Service pension (now under NASSCORP administration)	16,509	7,429,000 USD	0.35%	On-going

View Table

^{Table 2.16:}

People Receiving Pension Payments

Program	Beneficiaries	Total Budget (estimated US$))	Share of GDP	Status
National Pension Service (NASSCORP administered pension for private sector workers)	8,000	4,560,000	0.21%	On-going
Civil Service pension (now under NASSCORP administration)	16,509	7,429,000 USD	0.35%	On-going

The impact of universal non-contributory pension programs on poverty has been found to be multi-generational as these cash transfers are shared with the larger household. Preliminary cost estimates, to assess the feasibility of implementing a universal non-contributory pension scheme in Liberia based on a prospective benefit amount of 10 USD (L$1500) per month can be seen in Table 2.16-a.

^{Table 2.16 – a:}

ILO Universal Pension Cost Estimates (Age 70 and above)

^{Table 2.16 – a:}

ILO Universal Pension Cost Estimates (Age 70 and above)

Universal Old Age Pension Programs (Age 70+)	2019	2020	2021	2022
Cost (as a % of GDP)	0.09%	0.2%	0.3%	0.4%
Number of beneficiaries	15,800	36,400	58,800	86,800

View Table

^{Table 2.16 – a:}

ILO Universal Pension Cost Estimates (Age 70 and above)

Universal Old Age Pension Programs (Age 70+)	2019	2020	2021	2022
Cost (as a % of GDP)	0.09%	0.2%	0.3%	0.4%
Number of beneficiaries	15,800	36,400	58,800	86,800

From these estimates, the cost of the universal pension program is expected to peak in 2022 (assuming full participation of persons who have attained the requisite age) at 0.4 percent of GDP at the qualifying age of beneficiaries set at 70 years. The implementation of universal old-age program will complement the LSSN, encourage Liberians to enrol in the national identification registry, as well as promote contributory participation in the national pension scheme for the working population.

2.4.3.6 Providing Basic Income Security for Disabled Persons and People Living with HIV/AIDS

Persons with Disability (PWD) and living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV) are most likely to fall within Liberia’s most vulnerable groups. Accurate statistics on the number of persons in Liberia is not available. Further, these statistics can vary due to the variance of concepts and classifications. Provisional estimates the disability rate in Liberia at 20 percent of the population, on the back of health, civil war, and economic related exigencies⁴⁰ and 30,000 PLHIV. Te government estimates the incidence of absolute poverty among the disabled to be near 99 percent and is further compounded by structural discrimination.

Consistent with the government’s social protection objective that non-one is lef behind, it is critical to develop structured national programs to reduce acute poverty and structural discrimination experienced by the disabled. Key amongst these interventions is the introduction of a cash transfer program for the severely disabled. It is again expected that these cash benefits will benefit not only the disabled persons, but their families as well.

Economic empowerment of the disabled, constitutes a first step to counter poverty and structural discrimination. Relevant education, rehabilitation and work-related programs will also be developed in partnership with disabled persons organizations (DPOs). Table 2.16-b below depicts the projected cost of a universal cash transfers scheme to the severely disabled, with a monthly benefit amount of 10 USD (L$1,500), assuming a 1 percent severe disability rate

^{Table 2.16 – b:}

Universal Cash Transfer Estimate (Severely Disabled Persons)

Source: ILO calculations

^{Table 2.16 – b:}

Universal Cash Transfer Estimate (Severely Disabled Persons)

Universal Cash Transfer Programs (Severely Disabled)	2019	2020	2021	2022
Cost (as a % of GDP)	0.07%	0.14%	0.21%	0.28%
Number of beneficiaries	10,762	24,798	39,492	57,746

Source: ILO calculations

View Table

^{Table 2.16 – b:}

Universal Cash Transfer Estimate (Severely Disabled Persons)

Universal Cash Transfer Programs (Severely Disabled)	2019	2020	2021	2022
Cost (as a % of GDP)	0.07%	0.14%	0.21%	0.28%
Number of beneficiaries	10,762	24,798	39,492	57,746

Source: ILO calculations

2.4.5 Priorities going forward with Youth and Sports Development

Table 2.17 outlines the short, medium, and long-term priorities towards two national targets for 25,000 young people to be achieved using SP strategies under the youth and sports development programs. Two programs are currently donor funded. The full results framework is in Annex II.

^{Table 2.17:}

Short, Medium, and Long-Term Priorities for Youths

^{Table 2.17:}

Short, Medium, and Long-Term Priorities for Youths

HIGH LEVEL NATIONAL TARGET	Short-Term Interventions	Medium-Term Interventions	Long-Term Interventions
15,000 targeted youth aged 15–35 years by 2020; half of which are women	Pre-employment social support, household enterprises	Capacity and systems building; productive public works and life skills support	Establish rehabilitation services for vulnerable youths
10,000 young people enrolled in productive public works and life skills training by 2023	Information, Education, and Communication Campaign and Community Sensitization; Formation of the County Steering Committee Selection of Districts and Clans	Recruitment of Community Facilitator; Signing of Performance Contract between LACE, Community Facilitator, and Community Oversight Committees Beneficiary Selection;	Completion and Commissioning; Grievance and Redress; Subproject Launch and Implementation
Six sports academies established throughout Liberia—at least 4 in poor regions of the country	Restructure under-17, under-20, and senior national teams and link to athletic programs at Multilateral schools across the country for sports facilities upgrading and sharing	Expose coaches and athletes to new learning opportunities	Strengthen school and grassroots community sports development programs; engage for-profit and nonprofit private sector in investments and sponsorship opportunities

View Table

^{Table 2.17:}

Short, Medium, and Long-Term Priorities for Youths

HIGH LEVEL NATIONAL TARGET	Short-Term Interventions	Medium-Term Interventions	Long-Term Interventions
15,000 targeted youth aged 15–35 years by 2020; half of which are women	Pre-employment social support, household enterprises	Capacity and systems building; productive public works and life skills support	Establish rehabilitation services for vulnerable youths
10,000 young people enrolled in productive public works and life skills training by 2023	Information, Education, and Communication Campaign and Community Sensitization; Formation of the County Steering Committee Selection of Districts and Clans	Recruitment of Community Facilitator; Signing of Performance Contract between LACE, Community Facilitator, and Community Oversight Committees Beneficiary Selection;	Completion and Commissioning; Grievance and Redress; Subproject Launch and Implementation
Six sports academies established throughout Liberia—at least 4 in poor regions of the country	Restructure under-17, under-20, and senior national teams and link to athletic programs at Multilateral schools across the country for sports facilities upgrading and sharing	Expose coaches and athletes to new learning opportunities	Strengthen school and grassroots community sports development programs; engage for-profit and nonprofit private sector in investments and sponsorship opportunities