Front Matter Page
IMF Country Report No. 21/10
LIBERIA
POVERTY REDUCTION AND GROWTH STRATEGY
January 2021
Economic Development Documents are prepared by member countries in broad consultation with stakeholders and development partners, including the staffs of the World Bank and the IMF. Updated with annual progress reports, they describe the countries macroeconomic, structural, and social policies in support of growth and poverty reduction, as well as associated external financing needs and major sources of financing. This document for Liberia is being made available on the IMF website by agreement of the member country as a service to users of the IMF website.
Copies of this report are available to the public from
International Monetary Fund • Publication Services
PO Box 92780 • Washington, D.C. 20090
Telephone: (202) 623–7430 • Fax: (202) 623–7201
E-mail: publications@imf.org Web: http://www.imf.org
Price: $18.00 per printed copy
International Monetary Fund
Washington, D.C.
© 2021 International Monetary Fund
Front Matter Page
Message from the President of the Republic of Liberia
His Excellency Dr. George Manneh Weah
My Fellow Citizens,
On January 22, 2018 you entrusted me with the responsibility of leading the effort to build a capable state that is united in purpose and filled with hope and prosperity. This ushered in the first generational change in national leadership through the popular vote since the introduction of universal suffrage in 1951. I will remain eternally grateful for this sacred trust and will, to the best of my ability and with the help of God, strive to change the narrative on Liberia and bring about a more stable, prosperous, and democratic state.
Therefore, I take this opportunity to present the Pro-Poor Agenda for Prosperity and Development (PAPD)—our national development plan for July 2018 to June 2023. The Pro-Poor agenda is a framework for inclusion, more equitable distribution of our national wealth, and a rights-based approach to national development. It is the second in the series of plans leading towards the goals of Vision 2030. It aligns our national plans with the African Union Agenda 2063 and the global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Over the next five years, we will do a few things and do them well. We will focus on bringing growth back to the economy by increasing productivity through value chains with emphasis on agricultural processing and marketing. We will promote the production of rice, cassava and vegetables using new and appropriate technologies because the agricultural sector is a major source of foreign exchange and livelihood of our people. The forest sector remains another area with significant potential for growth. While developing the potential in those areas, we will pay close attention to natural resource governance so local communities can increase their share of the benefits from our natural resources and work with the government to improve regulations of artisanal, small scale, and large-scale activities.
We cannot develop Liberia without good quality infrastructure and a skillful labor force. Therefore, over the next five years, my government will invest in high quality infrastructures including roads, affordable energy, air and sea ports, Telecommunication/ICT, housing, water, and sanitation. More importantly, we will invest in our people particularly into their education, health, and in ending widespread vulnerability.
Our government inherited a difficult fiscal situation and the only way forward is to cut and rationalize expenditure in the short term while growing the revenue base over the long term. Even with those measures, our progress will be slow without the support of key partners--the international development partners, the private sector, and the Civil Society. We want to acknowledge the pivotal roles they have played, reassure them of government’s commitment to an inclusive way forward, and seek their cooperation for the implementation of the PAPD. We want to reassure the business community, both Liberian and foreign, of an enabling environment for their business ventures to prosper.
Our country is rich in resources and has a youthful labor force with tremendous potential. Moreover, as Liberia’s feminist-in-chief, I hereby pledge to fight for equality and women empowerment during my tenure. I call on all Liberians, living at home and in the Diaspora, to join hands and put aside differences to develop this potential. Afer years of conflict and struggle with disease outbreak, we must turn in new a direction to build hope again—in ourselves, in our nation, in our future. I encourage you to own this development agenda, receive it with positive minds, and become champions of the solutions it offers. Liberia belongs to all of us and we must now collaborate to build a new and better nation.
Finally, let me close by thanking all those who worked very hard to turn our campaign manifesto and vision into action for a prosperous, stable, and resilient Liberia.
God bless Liberia!
H. E. Georg/Manneh Weah
President of the Republic of Liberia
Acknowledgement from the Minister of Finance and Development Planning
Hon. Samuel D. Tweah
I wish to extend my sincere thanks to the President of the Republic of Liberia, H.E. George Manneh Weah, the Vice President, H.E. Jewel Howard-Taylor, and the Cabinet, the Liberian National Legislature, and the Judiciary for your guidance and motivation in driving the formulation of the Pro-Poor Agenda for Prosperity and Development (PAPD). I am also grateful to other heads of institution, autonomous agencies, county superintendents and various stakeholders for their support in organizing the technical sessions and mobilizing participants to contribute to this exercise.
We are indebted to various technical specialists participating in sector working groups and other multi-sectoral fora for the time and contributions to the formulation of the pillar goals and results framework. We also acknowledge the suggestions made by the private sector on moving the economy forward in the medium term. Many thanks to Civil Society Organization (CSO), faith-based organizations, youth organizations, women organizations, organizations of people with special needs, institutions of higher learning, the media and all other national institutions for unfinching support to this national effort.
We are very grateful to the United Nations system, the World Bank, the African Development Bank, the European Union, the United States Agency for International Development, the Swedish Embassy, and all other international actors that provided technical and financial support during the PAPD formulation. Specifically, we want to acknowledge the significant contributions made by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the International Labor Organization (ILO) for underwriting some of the cost of this process and for deploying technical assistance to support our experts.
We extend gratitude to the entire team at the Department of Budget and Planning headed by Ms. Tanneh Brunson, the Department of Economic Management headed by Mr. Augustus Flomo, and the Department of Administration headed by Ms. Rebecca Y. Mcgill, of the MFDP for the consolidated effort to drive the process and come up with this National Development plan. Finally let me acknowledge the members of the special team that drew together this plan:
1. Mr. Benedict Kolubah; Assistant Minister for Planning/ National Coordinator
2. Mr. Melvin Crawford; Lead Program and Project Advisor
3. Mr Dehpue Zuo; Economist/Program Advisor
4. Ms. Re-Al Myers; Sustaining the Peace/Program Advisor
5. Mr. Teakon J. Williams; Governance/Program Advisor
6. Mr. Mlen Too Wesley, Principal Advisor for Program and Policy
7. Ms. Marianne Caballero, Governance Advisor, Tony Blair Institute
Hjon. Samuel D. Tweah, Jr.
Minister
Ministry Of Finance And Development Planning
Contents
Message from the President of the Republic of Liberia
Acknowledgement from the Minister of Finance and Development Planning
Acronyms
Executive Summary
1.0 The Current Context, National Vision, and Principles
1.1 Introduction
1.1.1 The Pro-Poor Agenda
1.1.2 Historical Perspective
1.2.1 Total Population
1.2.2 Gender and Age Distribution
1.2.3 Spatial Distribution
1.2 Population and Development
1.2.2 Labor Force and Labor Productivity
1.2.3 Urbanization and Sustainable Cites
1.2.4 Liberians Living Abroad
1.2.5 Liberia’s Demographic Dividend
1.3.1 By Regions
1.3 Patterns of Poverty and Vulnerability
1.3.2 By Demographic Groups
1.3.2.1 Women
1.3.2.2 Children
1.4 Potential Drivers of Growth, Transformation, and Reduction in Inequality
1.3.2.3 Youth
1.3.2.4 The Elderly
1.3.2.5 People with Special Needs
1.4.1 Southeastern A Region
1.4.2 Southeastern B Region
1.4.3 North Central Region
1.4.4 North Western Region
1.4.5 South Central Region
1.4.6 Montserrado Region
1.5.1 Donor Dependency
1.5.1.1 Challenges in Improving Effectiveness and Impact of ODA
1.5 Lessons Learned from Previous National Development Plans (NDP)
1.5.2 Economic Growth
1.5.3 Planning and Coordination
1.5.3.1 Liberia Reconstruction and Development Committee vs Liberia Development Alliance
1.5.4 Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E)/Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF)
1.5.5 Specific Measures to address Lessons Learnt
1.5.5.1 Shifting the Planning and Implementation Model
1.5.5.2 New Approaches and Economic Drivers
1.5.6 New Deal for Fragile States
1.6 The Economy Under Review-Towards Macroeconomic Stabilization and Growth
1.7.1 Introduction
1.7.2 Reaffirmation of the National Vision and Principles of Vision 2030
1.7 The National Development Plan Vision and Principles
1.7.3 Structural Transformation
1.7.3.1 Seeds of Change
1.7.4 Goals and Objectives of the Pro-Poor Agenda for Prosperity and Development
1.7.4.1 Formulation of the PAPD
1.7.4.2 Perspectives from the Consultative Process
1.7.5 High Level Objectives of the PAPD
1.7.6 The PAPD Alignment to Regional and Global Development Initiatives
1.7.6 The Four Pillars of the National Development Plan
1.7.7 Theory of Change
2.0 PILLAR ONE: POWER TO THE PEOPLE
2.1 Introduction
2.1.1 Current Condition of the People
2.1.2 Desired Outcomes in Human Capital Development
2.1.2.1 Empowering women and Girls
2.1.2.2 Supporting meaningful transition of youth into adulthood
2.1.2.3 Social Protection Investments to Improve Lives and Create Local Demand
2.2.1 Basic Education and Technical Vocatonal Education and Training (TVET)
2.2 Building Human Capacity for a Knowledge Economy
2.2.2 Higher Education
2.2.3 Challenges going Forward
2.2.4 Strategic Priorities for Basic Education and TVET 2018 to 2023
2.2.5 Strategic Priorities for Higher Education 2018 to 2023
2.3.1 Improving Health Service Delivery and Infrastructure
2.3 Expanding Access to Essential Health Services
2.3.2 Challenges going forward
2.3.3 Financing Health Care
2.3.3.1 Free Health Care Policy
2.3.3.2 Delivering the Essential Package of Health Services
2.3.4 Partnerships in Healthcare Delivery
2.3.5 Strategic Priorities for Essential Health Services 2018 to 2023
2.4.1 Vulnerability and Inequality
2.4 Ending Vulnerability and Disparity
2.4.2 Children Protection
2.4.2.1 Improving Coverage and Targeting of Social Protection Services for Children
2.4.3 Empowering Women and Girls
2.4.4 Investing in Social Protection
2.4.4.1 Global Consensus on Social Protection
2.4.4.2 Providing Basic Income, Education, and Care for Children
2.4.4.3 Providing Basic Income Security for the Working Age Population
2.4.3.4 Youth and Sports Development
2.4.3.5 Providing Basic Income Security Old Age Persons
2.4.3.6 Providing Basic Income Security for Disabled Persons and People Living with HIV/AIDS
2.4.5 Priorities going forward with Youth and Sports Development
2.4.6 Priorities going forward with Investments in Social Protection
3.0 PILLAR TWO: THE ECONOMY AND JOBS
3.1 Introduction
3.1.1 Current State of the Economy
3.1.1.1 Macroeconomic Outlook
3.1.1.2 Constraints to Sustainable Economic Growth
3.1.2 Macroeconomic Scenarios and Development Outcomes
3.1.2.1 Business as Usual/Baseline Scenario
3.1.2.2 Optimistic Scenario
3.2 The Economy and Jobs: Strategic Results for 2018 to 2023
3.3 Creating the Right Policy Environment
3.3.1 Expanding the Fiscal Space
3.3.1.1 Enhanced domestic revenue mobilization
3.3.1.2 Reduced overall fiscal deficit
3.3.1.3 Maintain debt at a sustainable level
3.3.2 Stabilize the Monetary System and Enhance Financial Inclusion
3.3.3 Transform the Business Regulatory Environment and Investment Climate
3.4.1 Increased Agriculture Production and Productivity
3.4.1.1 Issues and challenges in the sector
3.4.1.2 Agriculture sector development outcomes
3.4 Increasing the Competitiveness of Existing Industries
3.4.1.3 Priority commodities for domestic food consumption
3.4.1.4 Priority export commodities
3.4.1.5 Cocoa
3.4.1.6 Fisheries Improvement
3.4.1.7 Effective Forest Utilization
3.4.2 Manage Natural Resources Sustainably
3.4.2.1 Environment
3.4.2.2 Disaster Risk Management
3.4.2.3 Natural Resource Management
3.5 Transforming Infrastructure
3.5.1 Road Infrastructure
3.5.2 Air and Sea Transport
3.5.3 Post and Telecommunication
3.5.4 Access to Affordable Energy
3.5.5 Water and Sanitation
3.6.1 Improved Governance and Management of State-owned Enterprises
3.6 Sustaining Medium to Long-Term Economic Growth
3.6.2 Diversify the economy
3.6.2.1 Private Sector Development
3.6.2.2 Financial Sector Development
3.6.2.3 Manufacturing and Industrial Development
3.7 Short to Long Term Priorities of the Government
3.6.3 Expanding Regional Integration and Trade
3.6.3.1 Regional Integration
4.0 PILLAR THREE: SUSTAINING THE PEACE
4.1 Current State of Peace and Security
4.1.1 Challenges to Sustaining Peace and Security
4.1.2 Goals and Development Outcomes for Sustainable Peace
4.2.1 Increasing Civic Trust and Coexistence
4.2 Ending Fragility and the Root Causes of Conflict
4.2.2 Decreasing Violent Tendencies
4.3 Ensuring Access to Justice, Rule of Law and Human Rights
4.3.1 Improved Satisfaction with Judicial System and Rule of Law
4.3.1.1 Improving Judicial Systems
4.3.2 Improving Access to Justice
4.4 Complying with International, Regional, and National Human Rights
4.5 Improving Security Service Delivery
5.0 PILLAR FOUR: GOVERNANCE AND TRANSPARENCY
5.1 The Current State of Governance
5.1.1 Challenges going forward
5.1.2 Development Outcomes
5.2 Building a More Capable State
5.2.1 Expanding Public Sector Capacity and Delivery
5.2.1.1 Extending Service Delivery to All Counties
5.2.1.2 Public Sector/Civil Service Reform
5.2.1.3 SOE Reform
5.2.1.4 Nurturing Responsible Leadership
5.2.1.5 Improving tenure in the governance of natural resource governance
5.2.1.6 Sustainable Cites Initiative
5.3 Reducing Corruption
5.3.1 Improving Fiscal Discipline, Reducing Waste, and Systemic Losses
5.3.1.1 Improved Tax Administration
5.3.1.2 PFM Effectiveness
5.3.1.3 Strengthening Ant-corruption and Integrity Institutions
5.3.1.4 E-governance and ICT to improve business processes and productivity
5.3.1.5 National Biometric Registry
5.3.1.6 Asset Management
6.0 IMPLEMENTING THE PLAN
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Anticipated Challenges to Implementation Effectiveness
6.5.1 PAPD National Steering Committee
6.3 Migration to the Multi-Sectoral Approach
6.4 Development Corridors and Special Economic Zones
6.5 National Implementation and Coordination Framework
6.5.2 Cabinet
6.5.3 Implementation, Coordination and Delivery Unit (ICDU)
6.5.4 Multi-Sectoral Planning Working Group (MSPWG)
6.5.6 Pillar and Technical Working Groups
6.5.7 Regional Coordination and the Role of County Development Committees
6.5.8 The Role of Development Partners (DP)
6.5.9 The Role of the Private Sector
6.5.10 The Role of Civil Society
6.6 Partnership for Improved Aid Management and Coordination
7.0 FINANCING THE PAPD
7.1 Overview
7.2 Resource Envelope
7.2.1 Domestic Resources
7.2.1.1 Revenue Collection Scenarios
7.2.1.2 DRM Flagship Projects
7.2.1.3 Pilot Program with Municipal Government
7.2.3 External Resources/Official Development Assistance
7.2.4 Domestic and External Borrowing
7.2.5 Private Partnerships
7.3 Expenditure
7.3.1 Current Expenditure
7.3.2 Program and Capital Expenditure
8.0 Monitoring and Evaluation Framework
8.1 Overview
8.2.1 Conceptual Framework
8.2 Measuring, Monitoring, and Evaluating Progress towards the National Targets
8.2.2 Measuring the High-Level National Targets
8.2.3 Measuring and Monitoring at the Subregional and Population Groups Level
8.2.4 Institutional Arrangements for Monitoring and Evaluation
8.3 Measuring, Monitoring, Evaluating the SDGs, the AU 2063, and ECOWAS 2020
Figures
Figure 1.1: Population Pyramid by Age by Gender
Figure 1.2: Population Forecast to 2028
Figure 1.3: Spatial Distribution of the Population
Figure 1.4: Wage Earnings of Women and Men
Figure 1.5: Absolute Poverty by Region
Figure 1.6: Potential Development Regions
Figure 1.7: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Per Capita (constant 2010 US$)
Figure 1.8: Reinforcing Links and Development Pathways
Figure 1.9: Theory of Change--Pillars One and Two
Figure 1.10: Theory of Change--Pillars Tree and Four
Figure 2.1: Liberia vs Sub-Saharan Africa LIC Net Enrollment Rates
Figure 2.1: Liberia vs Sub-Saharan Africa LIC Net Enrollment Rates
Figure 2.3: Teachers by Gender by School Ownership
Figure 2.4: Ownership of Schools
Figure 2.5: Current Enrollment by Discipline (11 most common skills)
Figure 2.6: Number of Health Facilities by Ownership
Figure 3.1: Price Outlook for Major Agricultural Exports and Rice
Figure 3.2: Price Outlook for Gold, Rubber, Iron Ore
Figure 3.3: Personal Remittance Net Inflows 2010–2017
Figure 3.4: Exports and Imports as Percent of GDP
Figure 3.5: Fiscal Balance as Percent of GDP
Figure 3.6: Fan Chart showing the BAU, Optimistic & SDGs projected GDP growth
Figure 3.7: GDP Growth Forecasts
Figure 3.8: Revenue Growth Forecasts
Figure 3.7: GDP Growth Forecasts
Figure 3.10: Rubber Production and Exports
Figure 3.11: Cocoa Production and Exports
Figure 3.12: Palm Oil Production and Exports
Figure 3.13: Rice Consumption, Imports, and Production
Figure 4.1: Supporting Relationships of the Strategies
Figure 4.2: MII National Security Index
Figure 4.3: MII Personal Safety Index
Figure 4.4: Crime and Age 2016 to 2017
Figure 4.5: Coexistence and Civic Trust
Figure 4.6: Satisfaction with State Service Delivery
Figure 4.7: Confidence in National Institutions
Figure 4.8: Absolute Poverty by County
Figure 4.9: National Conflict Map
Figure 6.1: Plan Implementation and Coordination Framework
Figure 6.2: Roles and Responsibilities
Figure 7.1: Liberia Sources of Central Government Financing 2012 to 2018 (as percent of nominal GDP)
Figure 7.2: Revenue Vs. Grants as Percent of GDP
Figure 8.1: Measuring, Monitoring, and Evaluating the PAPD
Tables
Table 1.1: Distribution of the Population by Statistical Regions
Table 1.2: Economic Corridors and Rural Urban Migration
Table 1.3: Absolute, Food, and Extreme Poverty by County
Table 1.4: Liberia Multidimensional Poverty Index 2018
Table 1.5: Liberia Vision 2030 Long Term Outcomes
Table 1.6: Seeds of Change
Table 1.7: Alignment of PAPD, AfT, AU Agenda 2063, and SDG’s
Table 1.8: High-Level National Targets and Development Outcomes of the PAPD
Table 2.1: HDI and SDG Indicators
Table 2.2: Liberia’s HDI and Component Indicators relative to select groups of countries
Table 2.3: Liberia 2015 Inequality-Adjusted HDI relative to select groups of countries
Table 2.4: Liberia 2015 Gender Inequality Index relative to select groups of countries
Table 2.5: Pillar One--Power to the People
Table 2.6: Market-Based Demand for Skills by 2030
Table 2.7: Higher Institutions of Learning in Liberia
Table 2.8: Short to Medium Term Priorities for Basic Education and TVET
Table 2.9: Short to Medium Term Priorities in Higher Institutions of Learning
Table 2.10: Density of Health Services per Unit Population
Table 2.11: Short to Medium Term Priorities in Providing Essential Health Services
Table 2.11: Short to Medium Term Priorities in Providing Essential Health Services
Table 2.13: Family Out of Pocket Expenses on Education in 2016
Table 2.14: Social Safety Net and School Feeding
Table 2.14-a: ILO Universal Pre & Primary School Feeding Cost estimates
Table 2.15: Current and Anticipated Beneficiaries of Working Age Population Programs
Table 2.16: People Receiving Pension Payments
Table 2.16 – a: ILO Universal Pension Cost Estimates (Age 70 and above)
Table 2.16 – b: Universal Cash Transfer Estimate (Severely Disabled Persons)
Table 2.17: Short, Medium, and Long-Term Priorities for Youths
Table 2.18: Short, Medium, and Long-Term Priority Investments for Social Protection
Table 3.1: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators 2012 to 2017
Table 3.2: BAU Forecasts of Selected Economic and Financial Indicators 2018 to 2023
Table 3.3: Optimistic Forecast of Selected Economic and Financial Indicators
Table 3.4: The Economy and Jobs 2018 to 2023
Table 3.5: Priority Food Crop Projections
Table 3.6: Production and Exports Forecast of Priority Crops
Table 3.7: Projected Production and Exports of Round Logs
Table 3.8: Major Mineral Development Agreements
Table 3.9: Summary Statistics on Bank and Non-Bank Financial Institutions in Liberia 2017
Table 3.10: Short, Medium, and Long-Term Priority Investments for the Economy and Jobs
Table 4.1: Pillar 3 Goals and Development Outcomes 2018–2023
Table 4.2 Short, Medium, and Long-Term Priorities for Increasing Civic Trust and Coexistence
Table 4.3 Short, Medium, and Long-Term Priorities for Decreasing Violent Tendencies
Table 4.4: Short, Medium, and Long-Term Priorities for Improving Judicial Systems
Table 4.5 Short, Medium, and Long-Term Priorities for Improving Access to Justice
Table 4.6 Sort, Medium and Long-term Priorities for Improving Human Rights Protection and Promotion.
Table 4.6: Short, Medium, and Long-Term Priorities for Improving Security
Table 5.1: Governance and Transparency Results Framework 2018 to 2030
Table 5.2: Short to Long Term Priorities for Expanding Public Sector Capacity and Delivery
Table 5.3: Short to Long Term Priorities for Reducing Corruption
Table 6.1: Public Financial Management Act 2009-Legal Context for Aid Management
Table 6.2: Aid Modality Fiscal Years 2012/2013 to 2015/2016
Table 7.1: Estimates of the Resource Envelope (US$ millions)
Table 7.2: Current Expenditure Forecast by Object of Expenditure (US$ millions)
Table 7.3: Incremental Expenditure for PAPD Priority Programs by Budget Sectors (US$ millions)
Table 7.4: Forecast of Resource Mobilization Targets (in US$ millions)
Table 8.1: Goal One: Measuring the National Indicators
Table 8.1: Goal One: Measuring the National Indicators
Acronyms
| ACA |
Agricultural Concession Agreement |
| ACRWC |
African Charter on the Rights of Women and Children |
| ADR |
Alternation Dispute Resolutions |
| AIDS |
Acquired Imuno-Deficiency Syndrome |
| APRM |
Africa Peer Review Mechanism |
| AU |
African Union |
| DTF |
Distance to Frontier |
| ECO WAS |
Economic Community of West African States |
| BPA |
Beijing Platform for Action |
| EPHS |
Essential Package of Health Services |
| CET |
Common External Tariffs |
| CSC |
County Service Center |
| CSO |
Civil Society Organization(s) |
| ESRP |
Economic Stability and Recovery Program |
| EAP |
Economically Active Population |
| EU |
European Union |
| EVD |
Ebola Virus Disease |
| FDO |
Foreign Direct Investment |
| FMC |
Forest Management Contract |
| FGM |
Female Genital Mutilation |
| GC |
Governance Commission |
| GDP |
Gross Domestic Product |
| GNI |
Gross National Income |
| GII |
Gender Inequality Index |
| HDI |
Human Development Index |
| HIES |
Household Income and Expenditure Survey |
| HIV |
Human Imuno-Deficiency Virus |
| ICDU |
Implementation Coordination and Development Unit |
| IFMIS |
Integrated Financial Management Information System |
| IPRS |
Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy |
| IT |
Information Technology |
| LDA |
Liberia Development Alliance |
| LDHS |
Liberia Demographic and Health Survey |
| LISGIS |
Liberia Institute of Statistics and Geo-Information Services |
| LNP |
Liberia National Police |
| LRDC |
Liberia Reconstruction and Development Committee |
| LTO |
Long Term Outcomes |
| M&E |
Monitoring and Evaluation |
| MACs |
Ministries, Agencies, and Commissions |
| MDA |
Mineral Development Agreement |
| MDG |
Millennium Development Goals |
| MFDP |
Ministry of Finance and Development Planning |
| MIA |
Ministry of Internal Affairs |
| MOE |
Ministry of Education |
| MOH |
Ministry of Health |
| MPI |
Multidimensional Poverty Index |
| MSME |
Micro, Small, Medium Enterprises |
| MTEF |
Medium Term Expenditure Framework |
| MYFF |
Multi Year Fiscal Framework |
| NASSCORP |
National Social Security and Welfare Corporation |
| NDP |
National Development Plan |
| NKI |
National Key Indicators |
| NSS |
National Statistical System |
| ODA |
Official Development Assistance |
| PAPD |
Pro-Poor Agenda for Prosperity and Development |
| PETS |
Public Expenditure Tracking Survey |
| PFM |
Public Financial Management |
| PLHIV |
People Living with Human Imuno-Deficiency Virus |
| PPCA |
Public Procurement and Concession Act |
| PPCC |
Public Procurement and Concession Commission |
| PSG |
Peace and State building Goals |
| PUP |
Private Use Permit |
| PWD |
People with Disability |
| SCRI |
Social Cohesion and Reconciliation Index |
| SEZ |
Special Economic Zone |
| SWG |
Sector Working Group |
| TFR |
Total Fertility Rate |
| TOC |
Theory of Change |
| TOR |
Terms of Reference |
| TSC |
Timber Sales Contract |
| TVET |
Technical Vocational Education and Training |
| UDHR |
Universal Declaration of Human Rights |
| UN |
United Nations |
| UNDAF |
United Nations Development Assistance Framework |
| UNICEF |
United Nations Children Fund |
| UNMIL |
United Nations Mission in Liberia |
| UDHR |
Universal Declaration of Human Rights |
| UN |
United Nations |
| UNDAF |
United Nations Development Assistance Framework |
| UNICEF |
United Nations Children Fund |
| UNMIL |
United Nations Mission in Liberia |
Executive Summary
The Pro-Poor Agenda for Prosperity and Development 2018 to 2023 (PAPD) is the second in the series of 5-year National Development Plans (NDP) anticipated under the Liberia Vision 2030 framework. It follows the Agenda for Transformation 2012–2017 (AfT). It is informed as well by lessons learned from the implementation of the Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy 2007 (iPRS) and the Poverty Reduction Strategy (2008–2011).
The fundamentals underpinning the PAPD are: i) Liberia is rich in human and natural resources; but ii) is deprived of development largely because its human capital lacks the knowledge to transform the natural resources into wealth—whether through farming, mining, fishing, or other productive ventures that require technology or financial investments. Consequently, Liberia is relatively rich in natural capital but relatively poor in relations to its peers in both human and produced capital. Moreover, because of a legacy of entrenched inequality in access to development opportunities, widespread infrastructure deficits and pervasive poverty have become the binding constraints to future growth and prosperity.
Economic Growth and Development
The government acknowledges significant progress made over the past decade through the investments made and assistance received. On the economic growth rates and life expectancy at birth, Liberia exceeded the Sub-Saharan Africa average for the same period. The Gross National Income (GNI) per capita rose by 8.4 percent from 1990 to 2015. The Human Development Index (HDI) increased 1 by 10.6 percent between 2000 and 2015.1 Life expectancy at birth increased by 14 years and mean years of schooling by 1.8 years, over the same period. Nevertheless, Liberia remains in the low human development category and absolute poverty is on the rise in 5 of the 6 national statistical regions. The gains produced by economic growth have not been universally felt nor are they sustainable. Liberia ranks as the 11th lowest of the 188 countries on the 2016 HDI. On the inequality adjusted and the gender HDI, Liberia is 2 among the 10 lowest countries in the world.2
The Pro-Poor Agenda
The Pro-Poor Agenda is therefore about the people, how to strengthen their capacity to thrive; and how to draw all Liberians living at home and abroad into the national development process. Over the next five years, addressing the basic needs of Liberians for income security, better access to basic services, and greater opportunities for self-improvement in an enabling environment that is inclusive and stable will be at the core of the pro-poor agenda. While one of the aims over the long term remains raising per capita income levels and economic status to a middle-income country as outlined under the Vision 2030 framework, the focus over the next five years will be on removing the binding constraints to reaching that goal.
National Visioning
The Pro-Poor Agenda is also about crafting a national identity aligned to the Africa Agenda 2063 and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Vision 2020. What clearly emerged from the national consultations on the future of Liberia held in 2012 is that the tendency to bifurcate the Liberian identity into an Americo-Liberian vs. Indigenes cleavage leaves the “erroneous impression of two discreet communities” that need to be reconciled for political, social, and economic, development to take hold. But it is evident that the Liberian identity is a fusion of values of multiple “largely patriarchal traditional societies”, different tenets of faith, and the “infuence of black settler culture”. Moreover, new cleavages emerged out of the civil war—between the Diaspora and those Liberians who remained at home, and between those who were victimized and those who were the perpetrators of violence. All these cleavages must be addressed for Liberia to go forward successfully as a united people and a progressive nation.
Significance of the Recent Transition in National Leadership
The inauguration of H.E. George Manneh Weah as the 24th President of the Republic of Liberia and H.E. Jewel Howard Taylor as first female Vice President, presents a unique opportunity to begin a transformation. It marked the first peaceful and democratic transition of power in 73 years. It was the first generational change in national leadership through popular vote since the introduction of universal suffrage in 1951 and the launch of the National Unifcation and Integration Policy in 1960.
This opens a window of opportunity to build a new nation based on the principles of inclusion, on equity in the distribution of revenues generated from Liberia’s natural resources, and on a rights-based approach to national development. It also opens the opportunity to unite Liberia’s diverse faiths and ‘nations’ around a national identity that reflects Liberia’s geographic position and relations with the rest of the Africa region.
Goals of the PAPD
In view of the foregoing, the objectives of the PAPD are:
1. To build more capable and trusted state institutions that will lead to a stable, resilient, and inclusive nation embracing its triple heritage and anchored on its African identity
2. To provide greater income security to an additional one million Liberians, and reduce absolute poverty by 23 percent across 5 out of 6 regions--through sustained and inclusive economic growth driven by scaled-up investments in agriculture, in infrastructure, in human resource development, and in social protection
Theory of Change
The PAPD is premised on a Theory or Change (TOC) recognizing the multi-faced and cross-sectoral nature of sustainable development.
As used in this context, the TOC is the roadmap for change that will be followed by the government and its partners. While results frameworks identify the strategic initiatives government will pursue and the frontiers to be reached, the TOC describes how outcomes will be produced--the “seeds of change” the government hopes to leverage and the assumptions against which progress can be made and measured.
Roads and other infrastructure development will be prioritized to form the physical corridors along which a new integrated and multi-sectoral approach to spatial development will be implemented. In the context of the PAPD, improving access to all regions of the country through all-weather roads will be the enabler. Moreover, raising social spending in the neglected regions of the country will lif large majorities out of extreme poverty and food insecurity, create local markets where they do not exist, and raise labor productivity in agriculture and forestry, artisanal mining, and fishing.
The Pro-Poor approach will progressively introduce multi-sectoralism as existing sector strategic plans expire. In formulating all subsequent sector policies and strategic plans, stakeholders will be required to determine how the proposed program affects issues within their own sector’s purview, and how it is likely to affect other sectors’ plans, objectives, and goals in the future. In subsequent sector strategic plans, integrfation will also be introduced. The integrated approach will share features of participation, de-concentration, and multi-discipline with the multi-sectoral approach. The distinguishing feature, however, will lie in drawing together multiple goals or packages for a project or several projects to be delivered to a specific target population or geographic region. As much as the PAPD projects must be initially sector-driven, it will be important to identify those strategic partners whose services will be required and bring them on board at initial stages as consultants or service providers, playing a support role for the sector within Pillar Working Groups. Consequently, the PAPD implementation approach will be multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary but sectoral and linear in management and execution.
This PAPD design inevitably raises the question about the practicality and efficacy of attempting both horizontal and vertical integration, as well as the availability of capacity and tools for assessment of performance around various issues that are being integrated. The government concedes that the capacity to understand and implement this complex framework will be a major constraint. The government also anticipates enormous resistance to changing the course and ways of doing government business. Nevertheless, the government remains resolute. By demonstrating a capacity to formulate the framework on very short notice, it also demonstrated a resolve to find and assemble the talent for implementation.
Detailed implementation and M&E plans follow as the next step in the migration from the AfT to the PAPD framework. In addition to ‘feshing out’ the timelines, sequencing, and prioritization, agreement will be reached on the institutional arrangements and responsibilities for implementation and M&E.
Pillars of the PAPD
To make progress towards the PAPD and eventually the Vision 2030 goals, the strategies and interventions are built around four pillars which will form the pathways for the next five years:
1. Power to the People— To empower Liberians with the tools to gain control of their lives through more equitable provision of opportunities in education, health, youth development, and social protection
2. The Economy and Jobs— Economic stability and job creation through effective resource mobilization and prudent management of economic inclusion
3. Sustaining the Peace—Promoting a cohesive society for sustainable development
4. Governance and Transparency—An inclusive and accountable public sector for shared prosperity and sustainable development
The interventions under Pillars One and Two will contribute directly to the income security and empowerment goals; while those under Pillars Tree and Four will contribute to building of a peaceful and united country pursuing a new vision of full integration into the African continent both in culture and vision.
National Targets are presented in the form of results frameworks for each of the four pillars. These are tools to assist government Ministries, Agencies, and Commissions (MACs), and partners, to logically link interventions to the high-level goals over the next five years. The insertion of specific targets commits MACs to attaining those development outcomes falling within their remit.
Pillar One—Power to the People
Many years of civil crises undermined the advances made in human capital development in Liberia--ranging from hundreds of thousands of deaths to internal displacement and outmigration of skilled labor into the Diaspora. Going forward, human capital development in Liberia must cut across various social sectors and the Government of Liberia is the main duty bearer. It must also cut across gender with the exigency of addressing historic and systemic biases against women at home, in the marketplace, and in the political arena.
Therefore, reducing out of school rates and increasing retention and completion rates for girls, while raising minimum education infrastructure standards for boys and girls and ensuring appropriate responses to Gender-Based Violence, are major thrusts under human capacity development. Providing lifelong learning opportunities to all Liberians on an equitable and inclusive basis will also be a special emphasis.
Reducing the maternal mortality rate will be a priority along with prevention of teenage pregnancies in the home and school environment. Reduction in under-five malnutrition of girls and boys will reduce risk of early life impairment which can become permanent and might also affect future generations. Malnutrition prevention will bring about important health, educational, and economic benefits over the medium to long term.
Reducing gender inequality in political, social, and economic life through government and partner supported interventions, and in partnership with women groups and communities, is also to be produced under this Pillar. Among the sets of interventions to produce this outcome is the adoption and strengthening of sound policies and enforceable legislation, the application of gender-responsive budgeting (GRB) in the multi-year fiscal framework of the government, and the implementation of the Revised National Gender Policy.
The youth development outcome seeks to accelerate the process of transforming Liberia’s demographic dividend into a potential driver of growth starting with expanding social inclusion through work and life skills opportunities; in addition to scaled-up Technical Vocational Education and Training (TVET) interventions.
Social protection investments include wider and sustainable expansion in access to the four minimum guarantees: i) access to essential health care, ii) basic income and food security for the whole family-especially children in the family environment (including vulnerable groups and people with disability), iii) providing some form of basic income for the working age population through pre-employment support and household enterprises for adolescents and young adults, expansion in the national social pension scheme, enforcement of the Decent Work Act and iv) social grants for the elderly, pregnant women, and people living with disability. Pillar Two—Economy and Jobs
Under Pillar Two, the emphasis is on maintaining macroeconomic stability, building good infrastructure, and providing a business-friendly environment that can stimulate private productive investments and create more and better-quality jobs that are important for sustaining the peace and to future economic growth. This pillar describes critical interventions that the Government will pursue in the macroeconomic space.
In the optimistic economic scenario for the next five years, the path of economic growth uses exogenously fixed forecasts for baselining. Raising Real GDP growth from 3.2% in 2018 to 5.8% in 2023 will be used as the minimum target of the government. In this scenario, growth will be underpinned by robust fiscal and monetary; and foreign exchange reforms, to create the right policy environment, improve the doing business environment, increase competitiveness through investments in real growth-enabling sectors (mainly agriculture and fisheries, forestry and service sectors), and by investments in reducing infrastructure deficits using approaches that are more labor-intensive and use more local content.
The optimistic economic scenario also projects higher annual external loan disbursements, in line with Liberia’s Article IV commitment on debt sustainability, to meet high spending needs on capital investment projects. The government also intends to scale up investments in human capital development, under Pillar One, to generate larger returns from public spending; while anticipating higher domestic resource mobilization to make up for any reduction in grant funding for social spending.
To open new and expand existing cross-border trade opportunities in the sub region, government will improve Liberia’s favorable position as a transport and re-export trade corridor by reducing its trading across borders distance to frontier (DTF) score of 72.23% to become comparable to its closest neighbors, Cote D’Ivoire, Guinea, 3 and Sierra Leone at 45.85%, 53.76% and 51.01% respectively.3 The first Special Economic Zone (SEZ) will open in FY2021/2022. Finally, partnerships with private actors on State Owned Enterprises reform will reduce pressure on public expenditure and increase FDI inflows.
Pillar Three—Sustaining the Peace
Sustainable peace is essential to the achievement of all other objectives of the PAPD. Improvement in human capacity and the development of a knowledge economy, which aim to transfer “power to the people” under Pillar One, can only be achieved if initiatives are inclusive, non-discriminatory, and respectful of human rights and justice. Likewise, private sector-led growth under Pillar Two requires stability and an assurance that long-term investments can be protected. Building a capable state that governs effectively and transparently, under Pillar Four, requires accountability and reconciliation of political, social, and economic injustices.
The key outcomes under this pillar will therefore be ending fragility and the root causes of conflict, improving the justice system and human rights protection, and enhancing national defence and security. The interventions are not only concerned with negative peace – expressed through the absence of violence, but also with positive peace – expressed through social cohesion and integration. The attainment of a cohesive society is not only fundamental to achieving sustainable peace, but also supports the achievement the pro-poor goal of lifing the poor and vulnerable out of poverty. The government views social cohesion as both a desirable end and a means to inclusive development.
Pillar Four—Governance and Transparency
The interventions of Pillar Four directly support one of the two development goals of the PAPD--building a peaceful, stable, and inclusive nation. Achieving this goal is only possible through effective implementation of policies and strategies that will ensure the participation of the entire citizenry in decision making and empowers all groups–especially women, children, and people with special needs. The achievement of this goal hinges on both major forms of governance – political and economic.
On political governance the focus going forward will be on deepening fiscal transference, strengthening local administrative capacity for public service delivery, and elections reform. Economic governance interventions will focus mainly on improving State Owned Enterprises (SOE) governance for more effective service delivery, better financial management, and improved procurement, and reduction of subsidy provided for operational support.
Furthermore, the government sees the passage of the Land Rights Act as a critical step forward towards improving land security and ensuring the productive use of land assets to reduce poverty and vulnerability. Accelerating the process of accession to the provisions of the Act and ensuring the full functionality of the Land Authority will therefore be a major focus under economic governance.
The government, as a priority under this pillar, will put into place policies, strategies, and programs that make Liberia a more capable state. To achieve this, the government commits to fully utilize existing and new frameworks and instruments to improve fiscal discipline, expand public sector capacity to deliver, expand service delivery to all counties, and improve tenure in the governance of natural resources. By so doing, two development outcomes will be produced: i) a reformed public sector exhibiting improved fiscal discipline and service delivery, and a rebalance in the concentration of economic and political activities away from Monrovia, and ii) improvement in natural resource governance.
The second priority for the government under this pillar is reducing corruption. Corruption undermines the capacity of the state and increases the cost to deliver basic services. To achieve this, the government commits to strengthening anti-graf institutions as the foot soldiers to lead the process while adapting e-governance via ICT platform to improve business processes and productivity.
By so doing, two development outcomes will be produced: i) More robust structures reducing waste and other systemic losses in the operations of Ministries, Agencies, and Commissions and (ii) Universal migration to ICT platforms and wider adoption of e-government to improve processes and productivity.
Implementation and Coordination Arrangements
Drawing on lessons-learned during the implementation of the AfT, a PAPD National Steering Committee will replace the Liberia Development Alliance Steering Committee as the apex level coordination and decision-making body. It will be a smaller body chaired by the President of the Republic of Liberia.
Each pillar will be led by a Champion, whose primary role will be to convene quarterly meetings to deliberate on progress towards the development outcomes and resource requirements from a multi-sectoral perspective. Twelve Technical Groups--organized around the development priorities, comprised of experts and specialists from MACs, DP’s, civil society and business representatives, will support the pillars. A PAPD Implementation Coordination and Delivery Unit (ICDU) will serve as secretariat to the Steering Committee and Pillar Working Groups. A Multi-sectoral/Regional Planning Working Group, comprised of the heads of Planning Departments of MACs and County Development Committees, will support the ICDU.
Financing
The costing model of the PAPD is built around two principles: i) reflect all of government costs, current and capital, in the expenditure framework; ii) reflect the continuity of government through the capture of costs and funding commitments to ongoing sets of activities in existing sector and strategic plans--while forecasting the incremental cost of PAPD priority programs and investments.
Current expenditure of the government--which includes compensation, consumables, domestic and foreign debt service payments, subventions to SOE’s, as well as other earmarked expenditures, is expected to be slightly more than US$2.7 billion over the five-year PAPD period. The total incremental cost for priority programs and capital investments is estimated at US$4.5 billion. Approximately 88 percent will go to Pillars One (20.4%) and Two (67.3%) investments. Pillars Tree and Four will account for 6.3 percent and 6.1 percent, respectively. Total program and investment spending will average 25 percent of GDP over the PAPD period. Estimates of the resource mobilization target is US$1.7 billion--based on the anticipated financing gap under current economic growth and domestic resource mobilization scenarios.
Measuring, Monitoring, and Evaluating Progress
The PAPD is designed to be measurable. The key measurements for progress on the first goal will be the Social Cohesion and Reconciliation Index (SCRI). The goal is to improve the index from 6.6 to 8. The other indicator will be civic trust and coexistence— that is expected to improve from the current value of 5.2 to 7 over the PAPD period. Finally, government will track perceptions on national security and personal safety, satisfaction with state service delivery, and confidence in the national institutions.
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate will remain a key measurement of progress on the second goal. Nevertheless, progress on the second goal will also be measured by advancement towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). To measure inclusion and inequality, the HDI and the supplementary assessments on multiple dimensions of human progress will be used.
The national targets of the PAPD are presented from both a regional and a sectoral perspective succeeding in decomposition of the development indicators to the subnational levels for the first time. Subnational disaggregation on access to health, education, and opportunities to make a decent living will be measured through the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI).
The details of a comprehensive M&E system will be elaborated by the ICDU, in consultation with development partners and key actors in the National Statistical System (NSS), before the end of calendar year 2018. This new plan will essentially be an update to the final National M&E Plan for the AfT and will include recommendations from the Final Report on the Establishment of Baseline Indicators for Key Sector Plans, AfT-II, SDGs G7+ and Agenda 2063 dated June 30, 2017.
Surveys and censuses conducted by LISGIS, and discrete sector assessments and project evaluations conducted with development partners, will be used to generate evidence of outcomes and impact across various regions of the country. The PAPD will be evaluated at midterm and at end term. The focus of the former will be on progress measurements, assessment of the likelihood of attaining, targets, identification of constraints that can be mitigated or areas that can be accelerated to inform possible midcourse adjustments. The latter will incorporate the findings of the former but will extract useful lessons learned to guide the formulation of the successor national development plan among other things.
