St. Vincent and the Grenadines: Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility—Debt Sustainability Analysis
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International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
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Publication Date:
29 May 2020
eISBN:
9781513545745
ISBN:
9781513545745
Language:
English
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; IMF support; financing; GDP; emergency financing assistance; financing needs; percent of GDP; sustainability framework; pandemic crisis; Fiscal stance; Natural disasters; Global; Caribbean; creating flow; debt distress; carrying capacity; GDP deflator; debt stock; Debt sustainability analysis
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Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for St. Vincent and the Grenadines

Abstract

Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for St. Vincent and the Grenadines

Background on Public Sector Debt

1. There are no data gaps in public sector debt coverage (Text Table 1). Public sector debt includes central government debt and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) debt.2 As of end-2019, the outstanding stock of total public debt was EC$1.7 billion (75.2 percent of GDP), of which central government debt was EC$1.5 billion (67.6 percent of GDP), and SOEs debt was EC$0.2 billion (7.6 percent of GDP).3 Thus, the combined contingent liability stress test excludes contingent liabilities from SOEs.

Text Table 1.

St. Vincent and the Grenadines: Coverage of Public Sector Debt

article image

2. The composition of public debt is dominated by external debt (Text Figure 1). As of end 2019, the stock of external debt accounted for 70 percent of total public debt, while domestic debt accounted for 30 percent of total.

Text Figure 1.
Text Figure 1.

St. Vincent and the Grenadines: Public Sector Debt

(Percent of GDP)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2020, 179; 10.5089/9781513545745.002.A002

Sources: St. Vincent and the Grenadines authorities and IMF staff calculations.

3. External public debt increased from 49.3 of GDP in 2018 to 53.0 percent of GDP in 2019. The increase in external public debt-to-GDP ratio reflects the worsening of the primary balance due to higher outlays on public investment projects (1.6 percent, y/y), and the negative contribution from the interest rate-growth differential. Most public external debt is with multilateral and bilateral donors (47.1 percent and 34.1 percent of total, respectively) on concessional terms. The remaining 18.8 percent is mainly with regional private creditors, including banks, pension funds, and other regional financial institutions (Text Figure 2 and Text Table 2).

Text Figure 2.
Text Figure 2.

St. Vincent and the Grenadines: Public Publicly Guaranteed External Debt, 2019

(Percent of total)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2020, 179; 10.5089/9781513545745.002.A002

Sources: St. Vincent and the Grenadines’ authorities and IMF staff calculations.
Text Table 2.

St. Vincent and the Grenadines: Public Sector External Debt, 2019

(Percent of total and percent of GDP)

article image
Source: Ministry of Finance, St. Vincent and the

Includes external debt contracted to build the new international

Includes T-bills held by ECCB, regional banks, insurance companies, pension funds, among others.

Includes FCIB and other private investors.

4. The majority of domestic debt is in the form of treasury bills and government bonds (63 percent of total domestic debt). The remainder consists of loans in local currency (25 percent of total) and accounts payable (about 6 percent).4 Most of the government securities are held by the buy-and-hold national and regional pension systems, insurance companies, and commercial banks.

Change in the Macroeconomic Forecast Relative to Previous DSA

5. The global coronavirus outbreak has led to a significant deterioration in the near-term macroeconomic outlook.

  • Tourism is a key driver of economic growth in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, with tourism arrivals from the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom accounting for near two-thirds of total arrivals.5 The spread of the coronavirus in these key source economies has dampened demand for tourism, with overall tourism arrivals expected to fall by nearly 50 percent in 2020. While local outbreaks are limited (only 17 cases as of May 13), a disruption to tourism-related activity will slow economic growth significantly to -5.5 percent in 2020.

  • The fiscal position is expected to weaken as government revenues have been affected and spending pressures emerged as a result of the pandemic. On March 25, the authorities announced a fiscal package of about 3½ percent of GDP to address urgent needs in the public health sector, support key sectors of the economy, and expand the social safety net and protect displaced workers. 6 While the measures are temporary and set to expire in three months, revenues will decline by 1¼ percent of GDP compared to 2019. On the expenditure side, despite the effort to reprioritize spending programs, total expenditure is expected to increase by 2¾ percentage points of GDP. The overall deficit is projected to widen to 6¼ percent of GDP in 2020 (up from 2.4 percent of GDP in 2019).

  • On the external side, the current account deficit is projected to widen in 2020 to 17.5 percent of GDP, due to a 50 percent decline in tourist receipts partly offset by a decline in tourism-sector related imports. Net FDI inflows are also expected to fall by 50 percent. With the worsening of the current account balance and the financial account, the level of imputed international reserves is expected to decline from 6.2 months of total imports of goods and services in 2019 to 4.4 months in 2020.7

6. In December 2019, the Caribbean Development Bank approved funding for a large-scale port modernization project. The existing port was built over 50 years ago, giving rise to safety concerns and with limited capacity to accommodate increased traffic. The cost of building a new port however, is quite large for a small economy like St. Vincent and the Grenadines (amounting to nearly 21 percent of GDP), partly because financing terms are less generous.8 The port project would support construction demand but also put heavy pressure on public finances.

7. Over the medium term, the economic prospects are more favorable. Staff projects real GDP growth to rebound to 4.1 percent in 2021, with relatively high levels of growth through 2023 before stabilizing to a more sustainable level of 2.7 percent after 20249 Key assumptions are: (i) the global coronavirus crisis is temporary, and economic activity would be normalized later in 2020, followed by a moderate rebound in stayover tourism arrivals in the next tourism season (December2020-March 2021); (ii) the construction of the new port project gets into full swing in 2021, and a new geothermal plant come on stream (by 2022), boosting overall economic activity; and (iii) over the medium term, net FDI inflows continue to rise, particularly in the tourism sector and assuming that the authorities maintain efforts to improve the investment climate. Inflation is projected to stay at around 2 percent (broadly in line with inflation expectation in the United States).10 The current account deficit would narrow, and with a recovery in net FDI inflows, the level of imputed international reserves would stay at around 4–5 months of total imports of goods and services.

8. Fiscal assumptions under the DSA baseline scenario are as following (Text Table 3).

  • The primary balance for the public sector is projected to average a deficit of 1.2 percent of GDP in 2021–2024, worse than the 2018 DSA baseline due to the negative impact of the COVID-19 and higher capital spending due to the port construction. Excluding the port, the primary balance would average a surplus of 1¾ percent of GDP. Once the port project is completed, the primary balance would improve to a surplus of 2¾ percent of GDP in 2025–2027.

  • Natural disasters occur at the magnitude and frequency of the last 15 years. The average annual fiscal cost is estimated at 1.4 percent of GDP, of which 0.7 percent of GDP is covered by the contingency fund and the remaining 0.7 percent from current allocations in goods and services and transfers.

  • External loan disbursements include those from existing loan contracts (US$220 million) and new loans (US$350 million). The former include financing for the Regional Disaster Vulnerability Reduction Program, tourism competitiveness project, agriculture competitiveness program, water and energy sectors, and the construction of government owned hotels, among others. Most of the new financing is expected to come from multilateral and bilateral donors: US$53.4 million to cover the financing gap that has emerged due to the global COVID-19 pandemic, including US$16 million under the IMF’s RCF, US$22.5 million from the World Bank for budget support and emergency response to COVID-19, and the remainder from other donors; and specific projects (e.g., , new port, coastal protection, and agribusiness). These will contribute to maintain an average grant element of new debt at 25 percent during 2020–2030.

Text Table 3.

St. Vincent and the Grenadines: Selected Macroeconomic Indicators Assumptions

article image
Source: St. Vincent and the Grenadines Ministry of Finance and IMF Staff calculations and projections.

Realism of the Macroframework

9. Debt dynamics (Figure 3). With the pandemic crisis and the economic contraction, the fiscal position will deteriorate in 2020, and total public and publicly guaranteed debt is expected to increase from 75.2 percent of GDP in 2019 to 85.8 percent in 2020. Thereafter, public debt is projected to decline gradually, reflecting the expected moderate rebound in economic activity once the global pandemic subsides, low global interest rates, the coming on-stream of the new geothermal power plant by end-2021 and its associated decline in oil imports, as well as the authorities’ commitment to implement fiscal consolidation measures, including (i) strengthening tax administration; (ii) restraining the growth of recurrent spending; and (iii) prioritizing and re-evaluating public investment projects in the pipeline. Public external debt is projected to increase temporally in 2020–2023 due to the construction of the new port but to fall steadily afterwards.

Figure 3.
Figure 3.

St. Vincent & the Grenadines: Drivers of Debt Dynamics – Baseline Scenario

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2020, 179; 10.5089/9781513545745.002.A002

1/ Difference between anticipated and actual contributions on debt ratios.2/ Distribution across LICs for which LIC DSAs were produced.3/ Given the relatively low private external debt for average low -income countries, a ppt change in PPG external debt should be largely explained by the drivers of the external debt dynamics equation.

10. Given the significant level of uncertainty, the baseline scenario is based on staff’s best realistic judgement (Figure 4). The projected widening of the fiscal balance in the near term reflects the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Beyond 2021, growth will be supported by the construction of the new port and other public investment projects including the new geothermal project and private and public investments in hotels.

Figure 4.
Figure 4.

St. Vincent & The Grenadines: Realism Tools

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2020, 179; 10.5089/9781513545745.002.A002

Country Classification

11. St. Vincent and the Grenadines’ debt-carrying capacity is medium (Text Table 4). St. Vincent’s Composite Indicator (CI) index (which determines the indicative thresholds to assess a country’s debt sustainability) is calculated as 3.0, corresponding to a “medium” rating,.11 St. Vincent’s debt carrying capacity is unchanged compared to the rating under the previous Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) methodology.12 The corresponding scores for the CI index determine the relevant thresholds for St. Vincent and the Grenadines for both external and total public debt (Text Table 5).

Text Table 4.

St. Vincent and the Grenadines: Debt-Carrying Capacity Under the Composite Indicator Index

article image
Text Table 5.

St. Vincent and the Grenadines: Composite Indicator Index: Thresholds

article image

12. The combined contingent liability stress test is aligned to St. Vincent’s specific risks (Text Table 6). The stress test includes the potential impact from existing public-private partnerships (PPPs) and risks pertaining to financial markets. SOEs’ debt, which is guaranteed by the government, is excluded from the stress test as it is already included in total public debt.13

Text Table 6.

St. Vincent and the Grenadines: Combined Contingent Liability Shock

article image

The default shock of 2% of GDP will be triggered for countries whose government-guaranteed debt is not fully captured under the country’s public debt definition (1.). If it is already included in the government debt (1.) and risks associated with SoE’s debt not guaranteed by the government is assessed to be negligible, a country team may reduce this to 0%.

Debt Sustain Ability Analysis14

A. External Debt Sustainability Analysis 13. External debt distress is high.

  • Under the baseline scenario, the PV of external debt-to-GDP ratio would remain above the indicative benchmark of 40 percent of GDP through 2031 (Figure 1 and Table 1). It remains above the benchmark during the projection period under stress test scenarios, including due to shocks to growth, exports, and a hypothetical one-time 30 percent depreciation (Tables 3 and 4). The shock that generates the largest impact on the PV of debt-to-GDP ratio is a combination of the mentioned shocks with the PV of external debt potentially reaching 90 percent of GDP by 2023, but then gradually declining to 64 percent of GDP by 2030.

  • The PV of debt-to-exports ratio and the debt service-to-exports ratio would breach temporarily (through 2022) the indicative thresholds both under the baseline and standardized stress test scenarios. A shock to exports pushes the debt service-to-exports ratio to 32 percent in 2023, well above the 15 percent threshold. The shock to exports keeps the PV of debt-to-exports ratio above its indicative threshold (180 percent) over the projection period.

Table 1.

St. Vincent & the Grenadines: External Debt Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2017–2040

(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

article image
Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections. 1/ Includes both public and private sector external debt. 2/ Derived as [r – g – ρ(1 +9) + εα (1+r)]/(1+g+ρ+gρ) times previous period debt ratio, with r = nominal interest rate; g = real GDP growth rate, ρ = growth rate of GDP deflator in US. dollar terms, ε=nominal appreciation of the local currency, and a: share of local currency- denominated external debt in total external debt 3/ Includes exceptional financing (i.e., changes in arrears and debt relief); changes in gross foreign assets; and valuation adjustments. For projections also includes contribution from price and exchange rate changes. 4/ Current-year interest payments divided by previous period debt stock. 5/ Defined as grants, concessional loans, and debt relief. 6/ Grant-equivalent financing includes grants provided directly to the government and through new borrowing (difference between the face value and the PV of new debt). 7/ Assumes that PV of private sector debt is equivalent to its face value. 8/ Historical averages are generally derived over the past 10 years, subject to data availability, whereas projections averages are over the first year of projection and the next 10 years.
Table 2.

St. Vincent & the Grenadines: Public Sector Debt Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2019–2040

(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

article image
Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections 1/ Coverage of debt: The central government, government-guaranteed debt . Definition of external debt is Residency-based 2/ The underlying PV of external debt-to-GDP ratio under the public DSA differs fr th e external DSA with the size of differences depending on exchange rates projections 4/ Gross financing need is defined as the primary deficit plus debt service plus the stock of short-term debt at the end of the last period and other debt creating/reducing flows 5/ Defined as a primary deficit minus a change in the public debt-to-GDP ratio ((-): a primary surplus), which would stabilizes the debt ratio only in the year in question 6/ Historical averages are generally derived over the past 10 years, subject to data availability, whereas projections averages are over the first year of projection and the next 10 years
Table 3.

St. Vincent & the Grenadines: Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt, 2020–2030

article image
Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.

A bold value indicates a breach of the threshold.

Variables include real GDP growth, GDP deflator (in U.S. dollar terms), non-interest current account in percent of GDP, and non-debt creating flows.

Includes official and private transfers and FDI.

Table 4.

St. Vincent & the Grenadines: Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public Debt, 2020–2030

article image
Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.

A bold value indicates a breach of the benchmark.

Variables include real GDP growth, GDP deflator and primary deficit in percent of GDP.

Includes official and private transfers and FDI.

B. Public Debt Sustainability Analysis

14. The overall risk of debt distress remains high (Figure 2 and Table 2). The PV of public debt is estimated to peak at 83.8 percent of GDP in 2020 and start declining in 2021. It is estimated that it meets the benchmark of 55 percent of GDP by 2030. The public debt to GDP ratio is also expected to fall to 60 percent in 2030, meeting the ECCU’s debt target just on time. Under the “most extreme stress scenario,” which assumes real GDP growth equal to its historical average (10 years) minus one standard deviation for 2020 and 2021, the PV of public debt would reach 100 percent of GDP around 2022. Under other alternative scenarios including a shock to exports, the PV of public debt (in percent of GDP) would reach 104 percent by 2022 but decline afterwards to around 75 percent by 2030, above the 55 percent benchmark.

15. Two natural disaster scenarios are conducted reflecting St. Vincent and the Grenadines’ exposure to natural disasters: (i) a one-time very severe natural disaster, in line with the default settings of the natural disaster tailored test, occuring in 2021, which would lower growth from 4.1 to 2.6 percent and with fiscal costs estimated at 10 percent of GDP; and (ii) a recurrent natural disaster scenario—but less severe than (i)—with the country being hit by natural disasters at the magnitude and frequency of the last 10 years with annual fiscal costs of 2 percent of GDP (i.e., 0.6 percent of GDP higher than in the baseline scenario) and real GDP growth lower by 1 percent. Under a tailored test of “one-time natural disaster” the PV of public debt would peak at 92 percent of GDP in 2021 and decline to 69 percent of GDP by 2030. Under the “recurrent natural disaster” scenario, the PV of public debt would peak at around 89 percent of GDP in 2023 and decline gradually to 72 percent of GDP by 2030.

16. The port project will put pressure on public debt. Were the port project not to take place, public debt would start falling in 2021 but would not reach 60 percent of GDP until 2030 similar as in the active scenario, which includes the execution of the port. Note that this scenario assumes that the authorities will take the same degree of fiscal consolidation efforts as in the active scenario and that GDP growth is sustained at around 2.5 percent over the medium term. Downside risks to debt sustainability, however, would be high. The port is one of the key priority resilience projects and its assets already exceeded its design life (build more than 50 years ago, well above its operational life of 30 year). Should there be structural failure of the existing port (possibly resulting from natural disasters), significant negative economic impacts would ensue.

St. Vincent and the Grenadines: Public Debt Scenarios1

(percent of GDP)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2020, 179; 10.5089/9781513545745.002.A002

Source: IMF staff estimates.1 Pasive scenario reflects the authorities’ baseline scenario pre-COVID-19. Active scenario with the port reflects revenue and expenditure measures to create room for the port. Non port & low growth reflects the active scenario without the port project. The assumption of fiscal adjustments is the same as “Active scenario with the port.” Growth projects are adjusted downward taking account of the negative impact of “no port” on the growth.

Risk Rating and Vulnerabilities

17. Under the active scenario, St. Vincent and the Grenadines’ debt is at high risk of distress and is sustainable on a forward-looking basis, broadly unchanged from the assessment in the 2018 Article IV DSA. The authorities are committed to increasing the central government primary balance from a deficit of 3.7 percent of GDP in 2020 to a surplus of no less than 2.1 percent of GDP by 2025, mainly through (i) enhanced taxpayers compliance, especially by focusing on large taxpayers and by adhering to the recently enacted Tax Administration Procedures Act; (ii) rationalizing exemptions from import duties and VAT on imports; (iii) and expenditure-side measures such as containing the growth of non-interest recurrent spending and prioritizing the government investment program. Altogether, the authorities’ measures will put the debt-to-GDP ratio and debt service on a solid downward path after 2022, with a faster decline once the port project is completed in 2024.

18. Risks to the medium term are tilted to the downside consistent with a “high” risk rating for external and public debt distress. The coronavirus pandemic crisis could be prolonged, with more severe disruptions to global economic activity than assumed, resulting in a deeper and more protracted damage to the tourism sector. In addition, were wider local outbreaks to erupt, economic recession would be more severe and protracted. Furthermore, once the hurricane season starts (early Summer), St. Vincent and the Grenadines would be threatened by natural disaster risks. Given these substantial uncertainties around growth and debt-service capacity, the authorities’ LOI commitment to ensure their overall fiscal plan protects debt sustainability through an updated DSA conducted together with World Bank and Fund staff at the time of the 2021 budget preparation is a valuable safeguard.

19. To reduce vulnerabilities, the authorities should seek concessional loans and further strengthen fiscal institutions. Large scale public investments, if financed through less concessional financing terms, could undermine debt sustainability. Accordingly, further efforts are needed to keep new borrowing on concessional terms. In this context, the debt service burden would be reduced to the extent that more favorable financing terms were to be offered on the port project, taking advantage of sharply reduced global interest rates since the global pandemic outbreak. Furthermore, the authorities should continue efforts to strengthen public investment management, and further improve the medium-term fiscal policy framework. Resolute implementation of the recently enacted Fiscal Responsibility Framework and additional fiscal measures will be needed to bolster fiscal buffers and protect public finances from the impact of natural disasters and climate change.

Authorities’ Views

20. The authorities agreed with the debt sustainability assessment under the baseline scenario. They noted that the recent approval of the Fiscal Responsibility Framework will help them to put public debt on a sustainable path. They agreed that external shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic and natural disasters pose risks to debt dynamics but reiterated their commitment to fiscal discipline to put the debt to GDP ratio on a firmly downward trajectory by implementing fiscal consolidation measures once the global COVID-19 pandemic is under control. They view that staff’s GDP projection is too conservative, and if the medium-term growth rate is around 3.2 percent (compared to staff’s projection of 2.7 percent) the ECCU’s debt target of 60 percent of GDP would be achievable before 2030. They agreed that additional fiscal reforms would be needed to create fiscal space to support their capital spending program, and especially so if the country continues to be hit by natural disasters.

1

St. Vincent and the Grenadines’ score in the Composite Indicator is 3.0, implying that the country’s debt carrying capacity is classified as medium. The classification determines the corresponding debt and debt service benchmarks for the external public and publicly guaranteed external debt and for total public debt.

2

Note that there are no local governments. In addition, all of SOEs’ external debt is guaranteed by the central government.

3

There is a EC$0.3 billion limit on SOEs’ total debt.

4

Debt classification is based on a residency basis, treating local currency-denominated debt issued in the local debt market and held by non-residents as external debt.

5

Tourism-related sectors (hotels, restaurants, transport, and retail trade) and wholesale sector (which cannot be stripped out due to data limitation) account for about 30 percent of GDP in national accounts.

6

Expenditure measures (amounting to 3 percent of GDP) include: (i) an increase in funding for the health sector to construct an isolation unit (recently finished), purchase drugs and equipment, and hire extra medical staff; (ii) various construction projects to generate jobs; (iii) support to agriculture, fishery and tourism sectors; (iv) temporary increase of the social safety net to protect the most vulnerable; and (v) an income support program for workers displaced in the tourism sector.

7

Calculated as the stock of imputed international reserves in year T divided by total imports of goods and services in year T + 1. For 2020, the import coverage ratio assumes prospective official financing from IMF and the World Bank.

8

The total size of the port project is US$ 185 million, of which US$100 million will be financed through the Caribbean Development Bank’s Ordinary Capital Resources (2.75 percent interest rate, 19-year maturity, including a 5-year grace period) and US$10 million from its Special Funds Resources (at 1 percent, 25-year maturity including a 5-year grace period). The remaining US$32 million will be financed through UK grants and US$43 million through counterpart resources by the authorities.

9

The medium-term growth projections have been revised up from the 2.3 percent growth assumed in the 2018 Article IV Staff report. This reflects (i) the impact of the port project; (ii) upward revisions to the annual average growth rate of net FDI inflows; and (iii) the impact of the geothermal project.

10

St. Vincent and the Grenadines is a member of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union, and the exchange rate peg against the U.S. dollar (EC$2.7 per dollar) provides an anchor for inflation.

11

The CI index captures the impact of the weighted average of the World Bank’s CPIA score, the country’s real economic growth, remittances, international reserves, and world growth. The CI calculation is based on 10-year averages of the variables including 5 years of historical data and 5 years of projections. The index was calculated using the October 2019 WEO data and the 2018 CPIA.

12

Countries are rated based on a set of 16 backward-looking criteria grouped into four areas including economic management, structural policies, policies on social inclusion and equity, and public-sector management and institutions.

13

Potential contingent liabilities from the pension system are not included. Parametric reforms introduced in 2014 improved the sustainability of the National Insurance System (NIS), but only temporary, as its reserves are projected to be depleted by around 2033. Currently, the government is assessing options to further strengthen NIS’s financial position and to reduce the burden from the public service pension system.

14

Natural disaster assumptions are unchanged from the 2018 Article IV Consultation DSA.

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
St. Vincent and the Grenadines: Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for St. Vincent and the Grenadines
Author:
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2020: Issue 179
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
9781513545745
ISSN:
1934-7685
Pages:
46
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513545745.002
  • <sup><xref ref-type="fig" rid="RA02fig01">Text Figure 1.</xref></sup>
    View in gallery
    Text Figure 1.

    St. Vincent and the Grenadines: Public Sector Debt

    (Percent of GDP)

  • <sup><xref ref-type="fig" rid="RA02fig02">Text Figure 2.</xref></sup>
    View in gallery
    Text Figure 2.

    St. Vincent and the Grenadines: Public Publicly Guaranteed External Debt, 2019

    (Percent of total)

  • <sup><xref ref-type="fig" rid="RA02fig05">Figure 3.</xref></sup>
    View in gallery
    Figure 3.

    St. Vincent & the Grenadines: Drivers of Debt Dynamics – Baseline Scenario

  • <sup><xref ref-type="fig" rid="RA02fig06">Figure 4.</xref></sup>
    View in gallery
    Figure 4.

    St. Vincent & The Grenadines: Realism Tools

  • View in gallery

    St. Vincent and the Grenadines: Public Debt Scenarios1

    (percent of GDP)

Text Figure 1.

St. Vincent and the Grenadines: Public Sector Debt

(Percent of GDP)
Text Figure 2.

St. Vincent and the Grenadines: Public Publicly Guaranteed External Debt, 2019

(Percent of total)
Figure 3.

St. Vincent & the Grenadines: Drivers of Debt Dynamics – Baseline Scenario
Figure 4.

St. Vincent & The Grenadines: Realism Tools

St. Vincent and the Grenadines: Public Debt Scenarios1

(percent of GDP)