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IMF Country Report No. 20/177

NIGERIA

TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REPORT—ADDITIONAL SPENDING TOWARD SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS

June 2020

This paper on Nigeria was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed in April 2020.

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FISCAL AFFAIRS DEPARTMENT

Nigeria

Additional Spending Toward Sustainable

Development Goals¹

Mauricio Soto, Mariano Moszoro, and Julieth Pico

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Technical Report

April 2020

The contents of this report constitute technical advice provided by the staff of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to the authorities of Nigeria (the “TA recipient”) in response to their request for technical assistance. This report (in whole or in part) or summaries thereof may be disclosed by the IMF to IMF Executive Directors and members of their staff, as well as to other agencies or instrumentalities of the TA recipient, and upon their request, to World Bank staff and other technical assistance providers and donors with legitimate interest, unless the TA recipient specifically objects to such disclosure (see Operational Guidelines for the Dissemination of Technical Assistance Information— http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/061013.pdf). Disclosure of this report (in whole or in part) or summaries thereof to parties outside the IMF other than agencies or instrumentalities of the TA recipient, World Bank staff, other technical assistance providers and donors with legitimate interest shall require the explicit consent of the TA recipient and the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department.

Contents

• ABBREVIATIONS

• PREFACE

• EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• I. INTRODUCTION

• II. HUMAN CAPITAL

• A. Education

• B. Health

• III. PHYSICAL CAPITAL

• A. Electricity

• B. Roads

• C. Water and Sanitation

• FIGURES

• 1. Trends in Educational Outcomes

• 2. Demographics and Enrollment

• 3. Education Inputs and Outcomes Comparison

• 4. Decomposition of Additional Spending in Education

• 5. Health Outcomes

• 6. Health Spending and Performance

• 7. Electricity Consumption per Capita

• 8. Income and Electricity Consumption

• 9. Economic and Electric Power Consumption Statistics

• 10. Quality of Roads Perception

• 11. Rural Access Index

• 12. Main Road Statistics

• 13. Access to Safely Managed Sanitation

• 14. Access to Safely Managed Water

• 15. Access to Basic Water and Sanitation Services

• TABLES

• 1. Additional Spending for High Performance in Education SDG

• 2. Estimated Spending Needed for High Performance in Health SDG

• 3. Additional Investment in Electric Power Capacity Requirements

• 4. Current and Target Energy Matrix

• 5. Additional Investment in Roads

• 6. Targets and Estimated Budget in the “Clean Nigeria: Use the Toilet” Campaign

• 7. Additional Investment in Water and Sanitation

• APPENDICES

• I. Education

• II. Health Care

• III. Electricity

• IV. Roads

• V. Water and Sanitation

• VI. Annualized Cost of Investment

Abbreviations

Preface

In response to a request from the Office of the Senior Special Assistant to the President on Sustainable Development Goals (OSSAP-SDGs), a technical mission visited Abuja, Nigeria during January 29–February 11, 2020 to collaborate on an assessment of the spending associated with making substantial progress along the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The mission comprised Mauricio Soto (head) and Mariano Moszoro (all FAD), and Julieth Pico (FAD expert). This technical mission was financed by the European Union under the EU-IMF Public Financial Management Partnership Program (PFM-PP).

The mission was hosted by D.M. Dauda (Secretary of Programme, OSSAP-SDGs) and Dr. Bala Yusuf Yunusa (Senior Technical Advisor, OSSAP-SDGs).

The mission met with Zainab Shamsuna Ahmed (Minister of Finance, Budget, and National Planning), Prince Clem Ikanade Agba (Minister of State for Budget and National Planning), and Suleiman H, Adamu (Minister of Water Resources). The mission also met with Didi Walson-Jack (Permanent Secretary, Federal Ministry of Power), Emmanuel Meribole (Director, Health Planning, Research and Statistics, Ministry of Health), Babangida Hussaini (Director of Special Projects, Federal Ministry of Works and Housing), and Adeoye E.O. (Acting Director, Department of Educational Planning, Research, and Development, Federal Ministry of Education).

The mission also met Katrine Mulvad Thomsen (Team Leader, Economic Cooperation and Energy, European Union Delegation), Amarakoon Bandara (Senior Economic Advisor, UNDP), Shubham Chaudhuri (Country Director, World Bank), Moses Ongom (Health System Adviser, WHO), Anthony Simpasa (Lead Economist, African Development Bank), and other staff of development partners.

The mission expresses its sincere appreciation for the cooperation and support given by officials and staff of these various organizations with whom the mission met. The team is especially grateful to Chukwuemeka Olanrewaju Ogbuehi (Ministry of Finance), Ogunleye Femi (OSSAP-SDG), and Zainab Mangga (IMF Resident Representative Office) for the excellent coordination and support during the mission. The mission is also thankful to Laraba Bonet (IMF Resident Representative Office) for facilitating mission logistics.

Since the mission took place before COVID-19 became a global pandemic, the report does not reflect the impact from COVID-19 on economic activity in Nigeria. The report focuses on some of the medium-term challenges that Nigeria will face after the COVID-19 crisis, namely the additional spending needed to ensure substantial progress along the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030.