Abstract
Second Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement, Requests for Augmentation of Access, Modification of Performance Criteria, and Monetary Policy Consultation Clause-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Supplement; and Statement by the Alternate Executive Director
Developments and Program Implementation
A. Context
1. Macroeconomic conditions were favorable before the COVID-19 pandemic shock.
Real GDP growth in 2019 was exceptionally strong at 7.6 percent, driven by strong private consumption on the back of rising household incomes and strong household credit. Manufacturing and service sector activity was also buoyant (Figure 2, Table 1). Growth is becoming more inclusive as labor market conditions improve. In 2019 the unemployment rate decreased by 1.6 percentage points, and remittance income increased slightly. The poverty rate fell from 25.7 percent in 2017 to 23.5 percent in 2018.
Despite strong domestic demand conditions, annual CPI inflation fell to 0.7 percent (y/y) in December due to lower food prices and some exchange rate appreciation.1
The fiscal deficit was around 1 percent of GDP in 2019. Revenue significantly overperformed, due to growth in tax-paying sectors and strengthened compliance, while spending fell short of budget as capital execution remained below plans. The lower fiscal deficit helped reduce central government debt to around 50 percent of GDP, the authorities’ medium-term objective.
Financial conditions were stable in 2019. Dollarization continued its downward trend. While private sector credit grew rapidly (18.5 percent (y/y to December)), led by household credit growth (32 percent (y/y)), financial soundness indicators (FSIs) do not suggest signs of distress given stable non-performing loan (NPL) and relatively high capital and liquidity (Figure 1 and Table 6).
The external position strengthened in 2019 and is assessed as broadly consistent with fundamentals and desired policies (Annex II). Higher FX receipts from non-resident deposits, coupled with stable market conditions and de-dollarization, allowed a build-up of international reserves. Despite strong domestic demand, the current account deficit narrowed to 8.2 percent of GDP in 2019 reflecting strong services exports (especially tourism), although the composition of trade changed considerably (Figure 1).2 Net remittances in 2019 edged up by 1½ percent in US dollar terms but fell relative to GDP. Reserve buffers were broadly adequate at 123 percent of the ARA metric at end-2019.
Armenia: Selected External and Financial Developments
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2020, 176; 10.5089/9781513545141.002.A001
Sources: National authorities, Haver, and IMF staff calculations.
Armenia: Selected External and Financial Developments
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2020, 176; 10.5089/9781513545141.002.A001
Sources: National authorities, Haver, and IMF staff calculations.Armenia: Selected External and Financial Developments
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2020, 176; 10.5089/9781513545141.002.A001
Sources: National authorities, Haver, and IMF staff calculations.
Armenia: Real Sector Developments
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2020, 176; 10.5089/9781513545141.002.A001
Sources: National authorities, Haver, IMF World Economic Outlook, and IMF staff calculations.
Armenia: Real Sector Developments
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2020, 176; 10.5089/9781513545141.002.A001
Sources: National authorities, Haver, IMF World Economic Outlook, and IMF staff calculations.Armenia: Real Sector Developments
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2020, 176; 10.5089/9781513545141.002.A001
Sources: National authorities, Haver, IMF World Economic Outlook, and IMF staff calculations.Table 1.Sources: Armenian authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.
Armenia: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2017–25
Gross international reserves in months of next year’s imports of goods and services, including the SDR holdings.
Table 1.
Sources: Armenian authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.
Armenia: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2017–25
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Act. | Act. | Prel. | Proj. | |||||||||
| National income and prices: | ||||||||||||
| Real GDP (percent change) | 7.5 | 5.2 | 7.6 | -1.5 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | |||
| Final consumption expenditure, Contrib. to Growth | 7.4 | 4.1 | 8.8 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.9 | |||
| Gross fixed capital formation, Contrib. to Growth | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.6 | |||
| Changes in inventories, Contrib. to Growth | 1.1 | 3.8 | -1.7 | -2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Net exports of goods and services, Contrib. to Growth | -1.2 | -2.7 | 0.1 | -0.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||
| Gross domestic product (in billions of drams) | 5,564 | 6,005 | 6,552 | 6,519 | 6,990 | 7,543 | 8,181 | 8,909 | 9,721 | |||
| Gross domestic product (in millions of U.S. dollars) | 11,527 | 12,433 | 13,637 | 12,977 | 13,422 | 14,536 | 15,597 | 16,768 | 18,041 | |||
| Gross domestic product per capita (in U.S. dollars) | 3,869 | 4,188 | 4,593 | 4,370 | 4,520 | 4,894 | 5,251 | 5,645 | 6,073 | |||
| CPI (period average; percent change) | 1.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.9 | |||
| CPI (end of period; percent change) | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | |||
| GDP deflator (percent change) | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 4.4 | |||
| Unemployment rate (in percent) | 20.8 | 20.5 | 18.9 | 19.0 | 17.9 | 17.6 | 17.5 | 17.4 | 17.3 | |||
| Investment and saving (in percent of GDP) | ||||||||||||
| Investment | 19.3 | 22.4 | 19.2 | 21.4 | 21.9 | 22.4 | 23.0 | 23.5 | 24.1 | |||
| National savings | 16.3 | 13.0 | 11.0 | 12.8 | 14.7 | 15.7 | 16.6 | 17.4 | 18.1 | |||
| Money and credit (end of period) | ||||||||||||
| Reserve money (percent change) | -1.0 | 17.8 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 13.2 | 11.1 | 10.8 | 8.0 | 8.2 | |||
| Broad money (percent change) | 18.5 | 7.4 | 11.2 | 3.9 | 13.2 | 11.1 | 10.8 | 8.0 | 8.2 | |||
| Private sector credit growth (percent change) | 16.5 | 17.2 | 18.5 | 7.0 | 13.0 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 8.5 | |||
| Central government operations (in percent of GDP) | ||||||||||||
| Revenue and grants | 21.2 | 22.3 | 23.9 | 23.3 | 23.7 | 24.9 | 25.3 | 25.4 | 25.4 | |||
| Of which : tax revenue | 20.2 | 21.0 | 22.3 | 21.7 | 22.0 | 22.9 | 23.1 | 23.2 | 23.3 | |||
| Expenditure | 26.0 | 24.1 | 24.9 | 28.3 | 26.5 | 26.9 | 26.9 | 26.9 | 26.9 | |||
| Overall balance on a cash basis | -4.8 | -1.8 | -1.0 | -5.0 | -2.9 | -2.0 | -1.7 | -1.5 | -1.5 | |||
| Public and publicly-guaranteed (PPG) debt (in percent of GDP) | 58.9 | 55.8 | 53.7 | 64.1 | 62.1 | 59.8 | 57.0 | 54.8 | 52.8 | |||
| Central Government’s PPG debt (in percent) | 53.7 | 51.3 | 50.1 | 60.9 | 59.1 | 57.3 | 55.0 | 53.3 | 51.8 | |||
| Share of foreign currency debt (in percent) | 81.1 | 80.0 | 79.0 | 75.7 | 73.5 | 74.1 | 75.1 | 74.3 | 73.7 | |||
| External sector | ||||||||||||
| Exports of goods and services (in millions of U.S. dollars) | 4,312 | 4,700 | 5,274 | 4,091 | 4,817 | 5,344 | 5,765 | 6,150 | 6,557 | |||
| Imports of goods and services (in millions of U.S. dollars) | -5,723 | -6,647 | -7,246 | -5,946 | -6,606 | -7,289 | -7,815 | -8,307 | -8,830 | |||
| Exports of goods and services (percent change) | 23.2 | 9.0 | 12.2 | -22.4 | 17.7 | 10.9 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 6.6 | |||
| Imports of goods and services (percent change) | 26.7 | 16.1 | 9.0 | -17.9 | 11.1 | 10.3 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 6.3 | |||
| Current account balance (in percent of GDP) | -3.0 | -9.4 | -8.2 | -8.6 | -7.2 | -6.7 | -6.4 | -6.1 | -6.0 | |||
| FDI (net, in millions of U.S. dollars) | 222 | 247 | 397 | 161 | 292 | 385 | 404 | 439 | 461 | |||
| Gross international reserves (in millions of U.S. dollars) | 2,314 | 2,259 | 2,840 | 2,190 | 2,245 | 2,446 | 2,578 | 2,587 | 2,598 | |||
| Import cover 1/ | 4.2 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.3 | |||
| End-of-period exchange rate (dram per U.S. dollar) | 484 | 484 | 480 | … | … | … | … | … | … | |||
| Average exchange rate (dram per U.S. dollar) | 483 | 483 | 480 | … | … | … | … | … | … | |||
Gross international reserves in months of next year’s imports of goods and services, including the SDR holdings.
Table 1.
Sources: Armenian authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.
Armenia: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2017–25
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Act. | Act. | Prel. | Proj. | |||||||||
| National income and prices: | ||||||||||||
| Real GDP (percent change) | 7.5 | 5.2 | 7.6 | -1.5 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | |||
| Final consumption expenditure, Contrib. to Growth | 7.4 | 4.1 | 8.8 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.9 | |||
| Gross fixed capital formation, Contrib. to Growth | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.6 | |||
| Changes in inventories, Contrib. to Growth | 1.1 | 3.8 | -1.7 | -2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Net exports of goods and services, Contrib. to Growth | -1.2 | -2.7 | 0.1 | -0.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||
| Gross domestic product (in billions of drams) | 5,564 | 6,005 | 6,552 | 6,519 | 6,990 | 7,543 | 8,181 | 8,909 | 9,721 | |||
| Gross domestic product (in millions of U.S. dollars) | 11,527 | 12,433 | 13,637 | 12,977 | 13,422 | 14,536 | 15,597 | 16,768 | 18,041 | |||
| Gross domestic product per capita (in U.S. dollars) | 3,869 | 4,188 | 4,593 | 4,370 | 4,520 | 4,894 | 5,251 | 5,645 | 6,073 | |||
| CPI (period average; percent change) | 1.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.9 | |||
| CPI (end of period; percent change) | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | |||
| GDP deflator (percent change) | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 4.4 | |||
| Unemployment rate (in percent) | 20.8 | 20.5 | 18.9 | 19.0 | 17.9 | 17.6 | 17.5 | 17.4 | 17.3 | |||
| Investment and saving (in percent of GDP) | ||||||||||||
| Investment | 19.3 | 22.4 | 19.2 | 21.4 | 21.9 | 22.4 | 23.0 | 23.5 | 24.1 | |||
| National savings | 16.3 | 13.0 | 11.0 | 12.8 | 14.7 | 15.7 | 16.6 | 17.4 | 18.1 | |||
| Money and credit (end of period) | ||||||||||||
| Reserve money (percent change) | -1.0 | 17.8 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 13.2 | 11.1 | 10.8 | 8.0 | 8.2 | |||
| Broad money (percent change) | 18.5 | 7.4 | 11.2 | 3.9 | 13.2 | 11.1 | 10.8 | 8.0 | 8.2 | |||
| Private sector credit growth (percent change) | 16.5 | 17.2 | 18.5 | 7.0 | 13.0 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 8.5 | |||
| Central government operations (in percent of GDP) | ||||||||||||
| Revenue and grants | 21.2 | 22.3 | 23.9 | 23.3 | 23.7 | 24.9 | 25.3 | 25.4 | 25.4 | |||
| Of which : tax revenue | 20.2 | 21.0 | 22.3 | 21.7 | 22.0 | 22.9 | 23.1 | 23.2 | 23.3 | |||
| Expenditure | 26.0 | 24.1 | 24.9 | 28.3 | 26.5 | 26.9 | 26.9 | 26.9 | 26.9 | |||
| Overall balance on a cash basis | -4.8 | -1.8 | -1.0 | -5.0 | -2.9 | -2.0 | -1.7 | -1.5 | -1.5 | |||
| Public and publicly-guaranteed (PPG) debt (in percent of GDP) | 58.9 | 55.8 | 53.7 | 64.1 | 62.1 | 59.8 | 57.0 | 54.8 | 52.8 | |||
| Central Government’s PPG debt (in percent) | 53.7 | 51.3 | 50.1 | 60.9 | 59.1 | 57.3 | 55.0 | 53.3 | 51.8 | |||
| Share of foreign currency debt (in percent) | 81.1 | 80.0 | 79.0 | 75.7 | 73.5 | 74.1 | 75.1 | 74.3 | 73.7 | |||
| External sector | ||||||||||||
| Exports of goods and services (in millions of U.S. dollars) | 4,312 | 4,700 | 5,274 | 4,091 | 4,817 | 5,344 | 5,765 | 6,150 | 6,557 | |||
| Imports of goods and services (in millions of U.S. dollars) | -5,723 | -6,647 | -7,246 | -5,946 | -6,606 | -7,289 | -7,815 | -8,307 | -8,830 | |||
| Exports of goods and services (percent change) | 23.2 | 9.0 | 12.2 | -22.4 | 17.7 | 10.9 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 6.6 | |||
| Imports of goods and services (percent change) | 26.7 | 16.1 | 9.0 | -17.9 | 11.1 | 10.3 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 6.3 | |||
| Current account balance (in percent of GDP) | -3.0 | -9.4 | -8.2 | -8.6 | -7.2 | -6.7 | -6.4 | -6.1 | -6.0 | |||
| FDI (net, in millions of U.S. dollars) | 222 | 247 | 397 | 161 | 292 | 385 | 404 | 439 | 461 | |||
| Gross international reserves (in millions of U.S. dollars) | 2,314 | 2,259 | 2,840 | 2,190 | 2,245 | 2,446 | 2,578 | 2,587 | 2,598 | |||
| Import cover 1/ | 4.2 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.3 | |||
| End-of-period exchange rate (dram per U.S. dollar) | 484 | 484 | 480 | … | … | … | … | … | … | |||
| Average exchange rate (dram per U.S. dollar) | 483 | 483 | 480 | … | … | … | … | … | … | |||
Gross international reserves in months of next year’s imports of goods and services, including the SDR holdings.
Table 2.Sources: Armenian authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.
Armenia: Balance of Payments, 2017–25
(In millions of U.S. dollars, unless otherwise indicated)
Table 2.
Sources: Armenian authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.
Armenia: Balance of Payments, 2017–25
(In millions of U.S. dollars, unless otherwise indicated)
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Act. | Act. | Act. | Proj. | ||||||||||
| Current account | -344 | -1,165 | -1,118 | -1,122 | -969 | -974 | -997 | -1,029 | -1,084 | ||||
| Trade balance | -1,376 | -1,789 | -2,051 | -1,768 | -1,770 | -1,882 | -1,969 | -2,061 | -2,163 | ||||
| Exports, fob | 2,385 | 2,630 | 2,873 | 2,463 | 2,767 | 2,955 | 3,148 | 3,345 | 3,545 | ||||
| Imports, fob | -3,761 | -4,420 | -4,924 | -4,231 | -4,537 | -4,837 | -5,117 | -5,406 | -5,708 | ||||
| Services (net) | -36 | -158 | 80 | -86 | -20 | -63 | -82 | -96 | -109 | ||||
| Credits | 1,926 | 2,070 | 2,402 | 1,628 | 2,050 | 2,389 | 2,617 | 2,805 | 3,013 | ||||
| Debits | -1,962 | -2,228 | -2,322 | -1,714 | -2,070 | -2,452 | -2,699 | -2,901 | -3,121 | ||||
| Income (net) | 407 | 161 | 228 | 203 | 250 | 279 | 309 | 340 | 373 | ||||
| Transfers (net) | 660 | 620 | 625 | 529 | 570 | 691 | 745 | 787 | 815 | ||||
| Private | 497 | 479 | 482 | 345 | 426 | 486 | 559 | 609 | 658 | ||||
| Official | 163 | 141 | 143 | 185 | 144 | 205 | 185 | 178 | 157 | ||||
| Capital and financial account | 572 | 810 | 1,267 | 225 | 1,019 | 1,182 | 1,231 | 1,227 | 1,245 | ||||
| Capital transfers (net) | 46 | 125 | 54 | 70 | 70 | 70 | 70 | 70 | 70 | ||||
| Foreign direct investment (net) | 222 | 247 | 397 | 161 | 292 | 385 | 404 | 439 | 461 | ||||
| Portfolio investment (net) | -87 | -33 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | ||||
| Public sector borrowing (net) | 493 | 168 | 301 | -11 | 152 | 249 | 298 | 294 | 292 | ||||
| Disbursements | 585 | 320 | 859 | 288 | 381 | 493 | 555 | 555 | 1,061 | ||||
| Amortization | -92 | -152 | -558 | -299 | -229 | -245 | -257 | -261 | -769 | ||||
| Other capital (net) | -101 | 303 | 506 | -3 | 496 | 470 | 451 | 416 | 413 | ||||
| Errors and omissions | -228 | 356 | 505 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Overall balance | 0 | 0 | 653 | -897 | 49 | 208 | 234 | 198 | 160 | ||||
| Financing | -139 | -13 | -653 | 581 | -119 | -243 | -234 | -198 | -160 | ||||
| Gross international reserves (increase: -) | -110 | 55 | -581 | 650 | -55 | -201 | -132 | -9 | -11 | ||||
| Use of Fund credit, net | -29 | -68 | -73 | -69 | -65 | -42 | -102 | -189 | -149 | ||||
| Financing gap | 0 | 0 | 0 | 316 | 70 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Identified financing | |||||||||||||
| IMF (SBA) budget support | 0 | 0 | 0 | 316 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| IMF (SBA) BoP support | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 70 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Memorandum items: | |||||||||||||
| Current account (in percent of GDP) | -3.0 | -9.4 | -8.2 | -8.6 | -7.2 | -6.7 | -6.4 | -6.1 | -6.0 | ||||
| Trade balance (in percent of GDP) | -11.9 | -14.4 | -15.0 | -13.6 | -13.2 | -12.9 | -12.6 | -12.3 | -12.0 | ||||
| Gross international reserves (end of period) | 2,314 | 2,259 | 2,840 | 2,190 | 2,245 | 2,446 | 2,578 | 2,587 | 2,598 | ||||
| In months of next year’s imports | 4.2 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.3 | ||||
| In percent of IMF’s Reserve Adqeuacy Metric (ARA) | 112 | 98 | 123 | 101 | 100 | 105 | 107 | 104 | 102 | ||||
| Merchandise export growth, percent change | 26.2 | 10.3 | 9.2 | -14.3 | 12.3 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 6.0 | ||||
| Merchandise import growth, percent change | 32.6 | 17.5 | 11.4 | -14.1 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.6 | ||||
| Nominal external debt | 10,228 | 10,683 | 11,385 | 12,103 | 12,589 | 13,184 | 13,773 | 14,320 | 14,917 | ||||
| o.w. public external debt | 5,495 | 5,536 | 5,790 | 6,020 | 6,171 | 6,413 | 6,629 | 6,783 | 6,965 | ||||
| Nominal external debt stock (in percent of GDP) | 88.7 | 85.9 | 83.5 | 93.3 | 93.8 | 90.7 | 88.3 | 85.4 | 82.7 | ||||
| External public debt-to-exports ratio (in percent) | 127.4 | 117.8 | 109.8 | 147.1 | 128.1 | 120.0 | 115.0 | 110.3 | 106.2 | ||||
| External public debt service (in percent of exports) | 6.7 | 7.9 | 15.4 | 13.7 | 9.4 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 15.2 | ||||
Table 2.
Sources: Armenian authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.
Armenia: Balance of Payments, 2017–25
(In millions of U.S. dollars, unless otherwise indicated)
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Act. | Act. | Act. | Proj. | ||||||||||
| Current account | -344 | -1,165 | -1,118 | -1,122 | -969 | -974 | -997 | -1,029 | -1,084 | ||||
| Trade balance | -1,376 | -1,789 | -2,051 | -1,768 | -1,770 | -1,882 | -1,969 | -2,061 | -2,163 | ||||
| Exports, fob | 2,385 | 2,630 | 2,873 | 2,463 | 2,767 | 2,955 | 3,148 | 3,345 | 3,545 | ||||
| Imports, fob | -3,761 | -4,420 | -4,924 | -4,231 | -4,537 | -4,837 | -5,117 | -5,406 | -5,708 | ||||
| Services (net) | -36 | -158 | 80 | -86 | -20 | -63 | -82 | -96 | -109 | ||||
| Credits | 1,926 | 2,070 | 2,402 | 1,628 | 2,050 | 2,389 | 2,617 | 2,805 | 3,013 | ||||
| Debits | -1,962 | -2,228 | -2,322 | -1,714 | -2,070 | -2,452 | -2,699 | -2,901 | -3,121 | ||||
| Income (net) | 407 | 161 | 228 | 203 | 250 | 279 | 309 | 340 | 373 | ||||
| Transfers (net) | 660 | 620 | 625 | 529 | 570 | 691 | 745 | 787 | 815 | ||||
| Private | 497 | 479 | 482 | 345 | 426 | 486 | 559 | 609 | 658 | ||||
| Official | 163 | 141 | 143 | 185 | 144 | 205 | 185 | 178 | 157 | ||||
| Capital and financial account | 572 | 810 | 1,267 | 225 | 1,019 | 1,182 | 1,231 | 1,227 | 1,245 | ||||
| Capital transfers (net) | 46 | 125 | 54 | 70 | 70 | 70 | 70 | 70 | 70 | ||||
| Foreign direct investment (net) | 222 | 247 | 397 | 161 | 292 | 385 | 404 | 439 | 461 | ||||
| Portfolio investment (net) | -87 | -33 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | ||||
| Public sector borrowing (net) | 493 | 168 | 301 | -11 | 152 | 249 | 298 | 294 | 292 | ||||
| Disbursements | 585 | 320 | 859 | 288 | 381 | 493 | 555 | 555 | 1,061 | ||||
| Amortization | -92 | -152 | -558 | -299 | -229 | -245 | -257 | -261 | -769 | ||||
| Other capital (net) | -101 | 303 | 506 | -3 | 496 | 470 | 451 | 416 | 413 | ||||
| Errors and omissions | -228 | 356 | 505 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Overall balance | 0 | 0 | 653 | -897 | 49 | 208 | 234 | 198 | 160 | ||||
| Financing | -139 | -13 | -653 | 581 | -119 | -243 | -234 | -198 | -160 | ||||
| Gross international reserves (increase: -) | -110 | 55 | -581 | 650 | -55 | -201 | -132 | -9 | -11 | ||||
| Use of Fund credit, net | -29 | -68 | -73 | -69 | -65 | -42 | -102 | -189 | -149 | ||||
| Financing gap | 0 | 0 | 0 | 316 | 70 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Identified financing | |||||||||||||
| IMF (SBA) budget support | 0 | 0 | 0 | 316 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| IMF (SBA) BoP support | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 70 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Memorandum items: | |||||||||||||
| Current account (in percent of GDP) | -3.0 | -9.4 | -8.2 | -8.6 | -7.2 | -6.7 | -6.4 | -6.1 | -6.0 | ||||
| Trade balance (in percent of GDP) | -11.9 | -14.4 | -15.0 | -13.6 | -13.2 | -12.9 | -12.6 | -12.3 | -12.0 | ||||
| Gross international reserves (end of period) | 2,314 | 2,259 | 2,840 | 2,190 | 2,245 | 2,446 | 2,578 | 2,587 | 2,598 | ||||
| In months of next year’s imports | 4.2 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.3 | ||||
| In percent of IMF’s Reserve Adqeuacy Metric (ARA) | 112 | 98 | 123 | 101 | 100 | 105 | 107 | 104 | 102 | ||||
| Merchandise export growth, percent change | 26.2 | 10.3 | 9.2 | -14.3 | 12.3 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 6.0 | ||||
| Merchandise import growth, percent change | 32.6 | 17.5 | 11.4 | -14.1 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.6 | ||||
| Nominal external debt | 10,228 | 10,683 | 11,385 | 12,103 | 12,589 | 13,184 | 13,773 | 14,320 | 14,917 | ||||
| o.w. public external debt | 5,495 | 5,536 | 5,790 | 6,020 | 6,171 | 6,413 | 6,629 | 6,783 | 6,965 | ||||
| Nominal external debt stock (in percent of GDP) | 88.7 | 85.9 | 83.5 | 93.3 | 93.8 | 90.7 | 88.3 | 85.4 | 82.7 | ||||
| External public debt-to-exports ratio (in percent) | 127.4 | 117.8 | 109.8 | 147.1 | 128.1 | 120.0 | 115.0 | 110.3 | 106.2 | ||||
| External public debt service (in percent of exports) | 6.7 | 7.9 | 15.4 | 13.7 | 9.4 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 15.2 | ||||
Table 3a.Sources: Ministry of Finance, Central Bank of Armenia, and Fund staff estimates and projections.
Armenia: Central Government Operations, 2017–25
(In billions of Armenian drams)
From 2018, the temporary tax credits used to cover tax obligations are not included in total tax revenues and are also not netted out from individual tax categories.
Includes acquisition of military equipment.
Covid19 fiscal gap.
The program balance is measured as below-the-line balance minus net lending.
Sum of overall balance (above the line), interest expense, and domestic and external net lending.
Table 3a.
Sources: Ministry of Finance, Central Bank of Armenia, and Fund staff estimates and projections.
Armenia: Central Government Operations, 2017–25
(In billions of Armenian drams)
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Act. | Act. | Act. | Proj. | |||||||||
| Total revenue and grants | 1,182.0 | 1,341.7 | 1,565.5 | 1,517.8 | 1,653.8 | 1,878.5 | 2,066.4 | 2,262.9 | 2,472.5 | |||
| Total revenue | 1,168.7 | 1,330.5 | 1,553.1 | 1,480.3 | 1,640.9 | 1,858.3 | 2,046.8 | 2,244.0 | 2,454.1 | |||
| Tax revenues 1/ | 1,123.9 | 1,258.1 | 1,464.3 | 1,415.5 | 1,538.1 | 1,728.7 | 1,886.1 | 2,068.9 | 2,263.1 | |||
| VAT | 392.1 | 438.2 | 506.5 | 491.4 | 552.2 | 610.9 | 665.1 | 730.4 | 797.0 | |||
| Profits, simplified and presumptive | 113.6 | 170.4 | 234.0 | 223.1 | 188.4 | 225.9 | 245.0 | 275.7 | 310.6 | |||
| Personal income tax | 341.3 | 356.6 | 440.8 | 373.4 | 377.4 | 392.5 | 405.5 | 441.5 | 481.7 | |||
| Customs duties | 72.6 | 80.2 | 95.1 | 65.5 | 90.9 | 98.0 | 106.3 | 115.8 | 126.4 | |||
| Other | 204.4 | 212.7 | 187.9 | 262.1 | 329.3 | 401.3 | 464.1 | 505.4 | 547.4 | |||
| Social contributions | 15.8 | 17.4 | 18.7 | 19.0 | 37.0 | 58.6 | 83.9 | 91.3 | 99.7 | |||
| Other revenue | 28.9 | 54.9 | 70.1 | 45.9 | 65.7 | 70.9 | 76.9 | 83.7 | 91.4 | |||
| Grants | 13.3 | 11.2 | 12.4 | 37.4 | 12.9 | 20.2 | 19.6 | 19.0 | 18.4 | |||
| Total expenditure | 1,448.3 | 1,447.1 | 1,629.4 | 1,842.3 | 1,855.5 | 2,030.3 | 2,203.1 | 2,397.9 | 2,617.1 | |||
| Expenses | 1,225.7 | 1,299.0 | 1,437.1 | 1,628.2 | 1,596.8 | 1,690.9 | 1,810.4 | 1,922.5 | 2,078.6 | |||
| Wages | 299.1 | 304.4 | 327.0 | 350.8 | 370.4 | 395.2 | 417.2 | 457.6 | 500.4 | |||
| Payments to individual pension accts. | 13.0 | 29.0 | 49.4 | 49.4 | 50.5 | 43.0 | 34.2 | 34.9 | 36.0 | |||
| Subsidies | 1.5 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 117.1 | 43.8 | 45.7 | 52.8 | 29.4 | 23.4 | |||
| Interest | 119.8 | 139.0 | 157.6 | 168.1 | 190.5 | 205.0 | 209.6 | 210.2 | 211.3 | |||
| Social allowances and pensions | 397.9 | 396.5 | 403.9 | 480.6 | 500.3 | 549.3 | 621.8 | 686.1 | 766.3 | |||
| Pensions/social security benefits | 267.3 | 265.7 | 269.9 | 329.2 | 351.2 | 388.3 | 439.4 | 478.5 | 529.5 | |||
| Social assistance benefits | 130.6 | 130.8 | 134.0 | 151.4 | 149.2 | 161.0 | 182.3 | 207.6 | 236.8 | |||
| Goods and services | 104.4 | 155.6 | 192.1 | 166.8 | 149.6 | 161.8 | 171.8 | 188.8 | 207.1 | |||
| Grants | 109.1 | 126.3 | 150.0 | 158.9 | 146.8 | 147.1 | 147.2 | 146.1 | 149.7 | |||
| Other expenditure 2/ | 180.8 | 143.8 | 152.8 | 136.5 | 144.9 | 144.0 | 155.8 | 169.4 | 184.5 | |||
| Transactions in nonfinancial assets | 222.6 | 148.1 | 192.3 | 214.0 | 258.6 | 339.4 | 392.7 | 475.4 | 538.5 | |||
| Acquisition of nonfinancial assets | 223.5 | 152.0 | 193.0 | 214.0 | 258.6 | 339.4 | 392.7 | 475.4 | 538.5 | |||
| Disposals of nonfinancial assets | 1.0 | 3.9 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Overall balance (above-the-line) | -266.3 | -105.4 | -63.9 | -324.5 | -201.7 | -151.8 | -136.7 | -135.0 | -144.6 | |||
| Statistical discrepancy | -7.7 | 0.8 | -8.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Overall balance (below-the-line) | -274.0 | -104.6 | -72.4 | -324.5 | -201.7 | -151.8 | -136.7 | -135.0 | -144.6 | |||
| Financing | 274.0 | 104.6 | 72.4 | 324.5 | 201.7 | 151.8 | 136.7 | 135.0 | 144.6 | |||
| Domestic financing | 86.5 | 69.4 | -13.3 | 135.7 | 181.9 | 72.3 | 32.3 | 36.8 | 74.8 | |||
| Banking system | 80.4 | 109.8 | -39.1 | 157.5 | 89.9 | 6.3 | -32.9 | 22.3 | 45.3 | |||
| CBA | 18.0 | 43.4 | -96.5 | 57.9 | -20.4 | -37.5 | -52.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Commercial Banks | 62.4 | 66.4 | 57.5 | 99.5 | 110.2 | 43.8 | 19.6 | 22.3 | 45.3 | |||
| Nonbanks | 6.1 | -40.4 | 25.7 | -21.8 | 92.0 | 66.0 | 65.2 | 14.5 | 29.5 | |||
| T-Bills/other | -7.5 | -13.5 | 41.5 | 98.5 | 71.6 | 28.5 | 12.7 | 14.5 | 29.5 | |||
| Promissory note/other | -94.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Net lending | 107.7 | -26.9 | -15.8 | -120.2 | 20.4 | 37.5 | 52.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| External financing | 187.5 | 35.2 | 85.7 | -70.5 | 19.8 | 79.5 | 104.4 | 98.2 | 69.8 | |||
| Gross disbursement | 282.3 | 154.4 | 412.8 | 144.9 | 198.3 | 256.0 | 291.1 | 294.9 | 571.7 | |||
| Amortization due | -47.9 | -68.5 | -270.0 | -150.3 | -111.8 | -114.2 | -119.1 | -123.1 | -421.6 | |||
| Net lending | -46.8 | -50.8 | -57.1 | -65.0 | -66.7 | -62.3 | -67.6 | -73.6 | -80.3 | |||
| Other financing 3/ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 259.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Memorandum items: | ||||||||||||
| Nominal GDP (in billion of drams) | 5,564.5 | 6,005.1 | 6,551.8 | 6,519.1 | 6,989.6 | 7,542.9 | 8,181.4 | 8,909.1 | 9,720.9 | |||
| Program balance 4/ | -202.5 | -155.7 | -94.3 | -494.8 | -248.0 | -176.7 | -151.8 | -208.6 | -224.9 | |||
| Primary balance 5/ | -85.7 | -44.1 | 20.7 | -341.6 | -57.5 | 28.3 | 57.8 | 1.6 | -13.7 | |||
From 2018, the temporary tax credits used to cover tax obligations are not included in total tax revenues and are also not netted out from individual tax categories.
Includes acquisition of military equipment.
Covid19 fiscal gap.
The program balance is measured as below-the-line balance minus net lending.
Sum of overall balance (above the line), interest expense, and domestic and external net lending.
Table 3a.
Sources: Ministry of Finance, Central Bank of Armenia, and Fund staff estimates and projections.
Armenia: Central Government Operations, 2017–25
(In billions of Armenian drams)
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Act. | Act. | Act. | Proj. | |||||||||
| Total revenue and grants | 1,182.0 | 1,341.7 | 1,565.5 | 1,517.8 | 1,653.8 | 1,878.5 | 2,066.4 | 2,262.9 | 2,472.5 | |||
| Total revenue | 1,168.7 | 1,330.5 | 1,553.1 | 1,480.3 | 1,640.9 | 1,858.3 | 2,046.8 | 2,244.0 | 2,454.1 | |||
| Tax revenues 1/ | 1,123.9 | 1,258.1 | 1,464.3 | 1,415.5 | 1,538.1 | 1,728.7 | 1,886.1 | 2,068.9 | 2,263.1 | |||
| VAT | 392.1 | 438.2 | 506.5 | 491.4 | 552.2 | 610.9 | 665.1 | 730.4 | 797.0 | |||
| Profits, simplified and presumptive | 113.6 | 170.4 | 234.0 | 223.1 | 188.4 | 225.9 | 245.0 | 275.7 | 310.6 | |||
| Personal income tax | 341.3 | 356.6 | 440.8 | 373.4 | 377.4 | 392.5 | 405.5 | 441.5 | 481.7 | |||
| Customs duties | 72.6 | 80.2 | 95.1 | 65.5 | 90.9 | 98.0 | 106.3 | 115.8 | 126.4 | |||
| Other | 204.4 | 212.7 | 187.9 | 262.1 | 329.3 | 401.3 | 464.1 | 505.4 | 547.4 | |||
| Social contributions | 15.8 | 17.4 | 18.7 | 19.0 | 37.0 | 58.6 | 83.9 | 91.3 | 99.7 | |||
| Other revenue | 28.9 | 54.9 | 70.1 | 45.9 | 65.7 | 70.9 | 76.9 | 83.7 | 91.4 | |||
| Grants | 13.3 | 11.2 | 12.4 | 37.4 | 12.9 | 20.2 | 19.6 | 19.0 | 18.4 | |||
| Total expenditure | 1,448.3 | 1,447.1 | 1,629.4 | 1,842.3 | 1,855.5 | 2,030.3 | 2,203.1 | 2,397.9 | 2,617.1 | |||
| Expenses | 1,225.7 | 1,299.0 | 1,437.1 | 1,628.2 | 1,596.8 | 1,690.9 | 1,810.4 | 1,922.5 | 2,078.6 | |||
| Wages | 299.1 | 304.4 | 327.0 | 350.8 | 370.4 | 395.2 | 417.2 | 457.6 | 500.4 | |||
| Payments to individual pension accts. | 13.0 | 29.0 | 49.4 | 49.4 | 50.5 | 43.0 | 34.2 | 34.9 | 36.0 | |||
| Subsidies | 1.5 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 117.1 | 43.8 | 45.7 | 52.8 | 29.4 | 23.4 | |||
| Interest | 119.8 | 139.0 | 157.6 | 168.1 | 190.5 | 205.0 | 209.6 | 210.2 | 211.3 | |||
| Social allowances and pensions | 397.9 | 396.5 | 403.9 | 480.6 | 500.3 | 549.3 | 621.8 | 686.1 | 766.3 | |||
| Pensions/social security benefits | 267.3 | 265.7 | 269.9 | 329.2 | 351.2 | 388.3 | 439.4 | 478.5 | 529.5 | |||
| Social assistance benefits | 130.6 | 130.8 | 134.0 | 151.4 | 149.2 | 161.0 | 182.3 | 207.6 | 236.8 | |||
| Goods and services | 104.4 | 155.6 | 192.1 | 166.8 | 149.6 | 161.8 | 171.8 | 188.8 | 207.1 | |||
| Grants | 109.1 | 126.3 | 150.0 | 158.9 | 146.8 | 147.1 | 147.2 | 146.1 | 149.7 | |||
| Other expenditure 2/ | 180.8 | 143.8 | 152.8 | 136.5 | 144.9 | 144.0 | 155.8 | 169.4 | 184.5 | |||
| Transactions in nonfinancial assets | 222.6 | 148.1 | 192.3 | 214.0 | 258.6 | 339.4 | 392.7 | 475.4 | 538.5 | |||
| Acquisition of nonfinancial assets | 223.5 | 152.0 | 193.0 | 214.0 | 258.6 | 339.4 | 392.7 | 475.4 | 538.5 | |||
| Disposals of nonfinancial assets | 1.0 | 3.9 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Overall balance (above-the-line) | -266.3 | -105.4 | -63.9 | -324.5 | -201.7 | -151.8 | -136.7 | -135.0 | -144.6 | |||
| Statistical discrepancy | -7.7 | 0.8 | -8.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Overall balance (below-the-line) | -274.0 | -104.6 | -72.4 | -324.5 | -201.7 | -151.8 | -136.7 | -135.0 | -144.6 | |||
| Financing | 274.0 | 104.6 | 72.4 | 324.5 | 201.7 | 151.8 | 136.7 | 135.0 | 144.6 | |||
| Domestic financing | 86.5 | 69.4 | -13.3 | 135.7 | 181.9 | 72.3 | 32.3 | 36.8 | 74.8 | |||
| Banking system | 80.4 | 109.8 | -39.1 | 157.5 | 89.9 | 6.3 | -32.9 | 22.3 | 45.3 | |||
| CBA | 18.0 | 43.4 | -96.5 | 57.9 | -20.4 | -37.5 | -52.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Commercial Banks | 62.4 | 66.4 | 57.5 | 99.5 | 110.2 | 43.8 | 19.6 | 22.3 | 45.3 | |||
| Nonbanks | 6.1 | -40.4 | 25.7 | -21.8 | 92.0 | 66.0 | 65.2 | 14.5 | 29.5 | |||
| T-Bills/other | -7.5 | -13.5 | 41.5 | 98.5 | 71.6 | 28.5 | 12.7 | 14.5 | 29.5 | |||
| Promissory note/other | -94.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Net lending | 107.7 | -26.9 | -15.8 | -120.2 | 20.4 | 37.5 | 52.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| External financing | 187.5 | 35.2 | 85.7 | -70.5 | 19.8 | 79.5 | 104.4 | 98.2 | 69.8 | |||
| Gross disbursement | 282.3 | 154.4 | 412.8 | 144.9 | 198.3 | 256.0 | 291.1 | 294.9 | 571.7 | |||
| Amortization due | -47.9 | -68.5 | -270.0 | -150.3 | -111.8 | -114.2 | -119.1 | -123.1 | -421.6 | |||
| Net lending | -46.8 | -50.8 | -57.1 | -65.0 | -66.7 | -62.3 | -67.6 | -73.6 | -80.3 | |||
| Other financing 3/ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 259.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Memorandum items: | ||||||||||||
| Nominal GDP (in billion of drams) | 5,564.5 | 6,005.1 | 6,551.8 | 6,519.1 | 6,989.6 | 7,542.9 | 8,181.4 | 8,909.1 | 9,720.9 | |||
| Program balance 4/ | -202.5 | -155.7 | -94.3 | -494.8 | -248.0 | -176.7 | -151.8 | -208.6 | -224.9 | |||
| Primary balance 5/ | -85.7 | -44.1 | 20.7 | -341.6 | -57.5 | 28.3 | 57.8 | 1.6 | -13.7 | |||
From 2018, the temporary tax credits used to cover tax obligations are not included in total tax revenues and are also not netted out from individual tax categories.
Includes acquisition of military equipment.
Covid19 fiscal gap.
The program balance is measured as below-the-line balance minus net lending.
Sum of overall balance (above the line), interest expense, and domestic and external net lending.
Table 3b.Sources: Ministry of Finance, Central Bank of Armenia, and Fund staff estimates and projections.
Armenia: Central Government Operations, 2017–25
(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise specified)
From 2018, the temporary tax credits used to cover tax obligations are not included in total tax revenues and are also not netted out from individual tax categories.
Includes acquisition of military equipment.
Covid19 fiscal gap.
The program balance is measured as below-the-line balance minus net lending.
Sum of overall balance (above the line), interest expense, and domestic and external net lending.
Table 3b.
Sources: Ministry of Finance, Central Bank of Armenia, and Fund staff estimates and projections.
Armenia: Central Government Operations, 2017–25
(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise specified)
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Act. | Act. | Act. | Proj. | |||||||||
| Total revenue and grants | 21.2 | 22.3 | 23.9 | 23.3 | 23.7 | 24.9 | 25.3 | 25.4 | 25.4 | |||
| Total revenue | 21.0 | 22.2 | 23.7 | 22.7 | 23.5 | 24.6 | 25.0 | 25.2 | 25.2 | |||
| Tax revenues 1/ | 20.2 | 21.0 | 22.3 | 21.7 | 22.0 | 22.9 | 23.1 | 23.2 | 23.3 | |||
| VAT | 7.0 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 8.2 | |||
| Profits, simplified and presumptive | 2.0 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.2 | |||
| Personal income tax | 6.1 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | |||
| Customs duties | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | |||
| Other | 3.7 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.6 | |||
| Social contributions | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | |||
| Other revenue | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | |||
| Grants | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | |||
| Total expenditure | 26.0 | 24.1 | 24.9 | 28.3 | 26.5 | 26.9 | 26.9 | 26.9 | 26.9 | |||
| Expense | 22.0 | 21.6 | 21.9 | 25.0 | 22.8 | 22.4 | 22.1 | 21.6 | 21.4 | |||
| Wages | 5.4 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | |||
| Payments to individual pension accts. | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | |||
| Subsidies | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | |||
| Interest | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.2 | |||
| Social allowances and pensions | 7.2 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 7.9 | |||
| Pensions/social security benefits | 4.8 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | |||
| Social assistance benefits | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | |||
| Goods and services | 1.9 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | |||
| Grants | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | |||
| Other expenditure 2/ | 3.2 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | |||
| Transactions in nonfinancial assets | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 5.5 | |||
| Acquisition of nonfinancial assets | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 5.5 | |||
| Disposals of nonfinancial assets | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Overall balance (above-the-line) | -4.8 | -1.8 | -1.0 | -5.0 | -2.9 | -2.0 | -1.7 | -1.5 | -1.5 | |||
| Statistical discrepancy | -0.1 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Overall balance (below-the-line) | -4.9 | -1.7 | -1.1 | -5.0 | -2.9 | -2.0 | -1.7 | -1.5 | -1.5 | |||
| Financing | 4.9 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | |||
| Domestic financing | 1.6 | 1.2 | -0.2 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | |||
| Banking system | 1.4 | 1.8 | -0.6 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.1 | -0.4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | |||
| CBA | 0.3 | 0.7 | -1.5 | 0.9 | -0.3 | -0.5 | -0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Commercial Banks | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | |||
| Nonbanks | 0.1 | -0.7 | 0.4 | -0.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.3 | |||
| T-Bills/other | -0.1 | -0.2 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | |||
| Promissory note/other | -1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Net lending | 1.9 | -0.4 | -0.2 | -1.8 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| External financing | 3.4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | -1.1 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | |||
| Gross disbursement | 5.1 | 2.6 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 5.9 | |||
| Amortization due | -0.9 | -1.1 | -4.1 | -2.3 | -1.6 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1.4 | -4.3 | |||
| Net lending | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.9 | -1.0 | -1.0 | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.8 | |||
| Other financing 3/ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Memorandum items: | ||||||||||||
| Nominal GDP (in billion of drams) | 5,564 | 6,005 | 6,552 | 6,519 | 6,990 | 7,543 | 8,181 | 8,909 | 9,721 | |||
| Program balance 4/ | -3.6 | -2.6 | -1.4 | -7.6 | -3.5 | -2.3 | -1.9 | -2.3 | -2.3 | |||
| Primary balance 5/ | -1.5 | -0.7 | 0.3 | -5.2 | -0.8 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.0 | -0.1 | |||
From 2018, the temporary tax credits used to cover tax obligations are not included in total tax revenues and are also not netted out from individual tax categories.
Includes acquisition of military equipment.
Covid19 fiscal gap.
The program balance is measured as below-the-line balance minus net lending.
Sum of overall balance (above the line), interest expense, and domestic and external net lending.
Table 3b.
Sources: Ministry of Finance, Central Bank of Armenia, and Fund staff estimates and projections.
Armenia: Central Government Operations, 2017–25
(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise specified)
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Act. | Act. | Act. | Proj. | |||||||||
| Total revenue and grants | 21.2 | 22.3 | 23.9 | 23.3 | 23.7 | 24.9 | 25.3 | 25.4 | 25.4 | |||
| Total revenue | 21.0 | 22.2 | 23.7 | 22.7 | 23.5 | 24.6 | 25.0 | 25.2 | 25.2 | |||
| Tax revenues 1/ | 20.2 | 21.0 | 22.3 | 21.7 | 22.0 | 22.9 | 23.1 | 23.2 | 23.3 | |||
| VAT | 7.0 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 8.2 | |||
| Profits, simplified and presumptive | 2.0 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.2 | |||
| Personal income tax | 6.1 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | |||
| Customs duties | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | |||
| Other | 3.7 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.6 | |||
| Social contributions | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | |||
| Other revenue | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | |||
| Grants | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | |||
| Total expenditure | 26.0 | 24.1 | 24.9 | 28.3 | 26.5 | 26.9 | 26.9 | 26.9 | 26.9 | |||
| Expense | 22.0 | 21.6 | 21.9 | 25.0 | 22.8 | 22.4 | 22.1 | 21.6 | 21.4 | |||
| Wages | 5.4 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | |||
| Payments to individual pension accts. | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | |||
| Subsidies | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | |||
| Interest | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.2 | |||
| Social allowances and pensions | 7.2 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 7.9 | |||
| Pensions/social security benefits | 4.8 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | |||
| Social assistance benefits | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | |||
| Goods and services | 1.9 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | |||
| Grants | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | |||
| Other expenditure 2/ | 3.2 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | |||
| Transactions in nonfinancial assets | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 5.5 | |||
| Acquisition of nonfinancial assets | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 5.5 | |||
| Disposals of nonfinancial assets | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Overall balance (above-the-line) | -4.8 | -1.8 | -1.0 | -5.0 | -2.9 | -2.0 | -1.7 | -1.5 | -1.5 | |||
| Statistical discrepancy | -0.1 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Overall balance (below-the-line) | -4.9 | -1.7 | -1.1 | -5.0 | -2.9 | -2.0 | -1.7 | -1.5 | -1.5 | |||
| Financing | 4.9 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | |||
| Domestic financing | 1.6 | 1.2 | -0.2 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | |||
| Banking system | 1.4 | 1.8 | -0.6 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.1 | -0.4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | |||
| CBA | 0.3 | 0.7 | -1.5 | 0.9 | -0.3 | -0.5 | -0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Commercial Banks | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | |||
| Nonbanks | 0.1 | -0.7 | 0.4 | -0.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.3 | |||
| T-Bills/other | -0.1 | -0.2 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | |||
| Promissory note/other | -1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Net lending | 1.9 | -0.4 | -0.2 | -1.8 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| External financing | 3.4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | -1.1 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | |||
| Gross disbursement | 5.1 | 2.6 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 5.9 | |||
| Amortization due | -0.9 | -1.1 | -4.1 | -2.3 | -1.6 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1.4 | -4.3 | |||
| Net lending | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.9 | -1.0 | -1.0 | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.8 | |||
| Other financing 3/ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Memorandum items: | ||||||||||||
| Nominal GDP (in billion of drams) | 5,564 | 6,005 | 6,552 | 6,519 | 6,990 | 7,543 | 8,181 | 8,909 | 9,721 | |||
| Program balance 4/ | -3.6 | -2.6 | -1.4 | -7.6 | -3.5 | -2.3 | -1.9 | -2.3 | -2.3 | |||
| Primary balance 5/ | -1.5 | -0.7 | 0.3 | -5.2 | -0.8 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.0 | -0.1 | |||
From 2018, the temporary tax credits used to cover tax obligations are not included in total tax revenues and are also not netted out from individual tax categories.
Includes acquisition of military equipment.
Covid19 fiscal gap.
The program balance is measured as below-the-line balance minus net lending.
Sum of overall balance (above the line), interest expense, and domestic and external net lending.
Table 4.Sources: Central Bank of Armenia; and Fund staff estimates and projections.
Armenia: Monetary Accounts, 2017–21
(In billions of drams, unless otherwise indicated)
Ratio of foreign currency deposits to total deposits (in percent).
Ratio of foreign currency deposits to broad money (in percent).
Table 4.
Sources: Central Bank of Armenia; and Fund staff estimates and projections.
Armenia: Monetary Accounts, 2017–21
(In billions of drams, unless otherwise indicated)
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar. | Jun. | Sep. | Dec. | Mar. | Jun. | Sep. | Dec. | Dec. | ||||||||
| Act. | Act. | Act | Est | Proj. | Proj. | |||||||||||
| Central Bank of Armenia | ||||||||||||||||
| Net foreign assets | 766.6 | 765.8 | 721.4 | 747.0 | 843.0 | 1071.8 | 949.7 | 872.8 | 850.1 | 847.4 | 919.9 | |||||
| Net international reserves | 977.0 | 971.6 | 927.1 | 946.3 | 1040.3 | 1268.5 | 1146.5 | 1069.6 | 1046.9 | 1044.1 | 1116.7 | |||||
| Other | -210.4 | -205.8 | -205.7 | -199.2 | -197.3 | -196.8 | -196.8 | -196.8 | -196.8 | -196.8 | -196.8 | |||||
| Net domestic assets | 265.4 | 449.8 | 474.2 | 381.9 | 287.8 | 250.5 | 335.2 | 325.2 | 426.5 | 546.9 | 670.6 | |||||
| Claims on general government (net) | -144.3 | -172.3 | -216.2 | -275.9 | -333.1 | -314.1 | -304.3 | -295.5 | -287.7 | -280.9 | -269.5 | |||||
| Of which : central government (net) | -121.0 | -137.8 | -179.6 | -168.8 | -141.8 | -173.6 | -163.8 | -155.0 | -147.2 | -140.4 | -129.0 | |||||
| Claims on banks | 107.6 | 299.1 | 364.3 | 325.2 | 294.4 | 231.7 | 231.7 | 231.7 | 231.7 | 231.7 | 231.7 | |||||
| Other items (net) | 302.1 | 323.0 | 326.1 | 332.5 | 326.5 | 332.9 | 407.8 | 389.0 | 482.5 | 596.1 | 708.5 | |||||
| Reserve money | 1,032.0 | 1,215.6 | 1,195.6 | 1,128.9 | 1,130.8 | 1,322.2 | 1,284.9 | 1,198.0 | 1,276.5 | 1,394.2 | 1,590.6 | |||||
| Currency issue | 516.1 | 566.7 | 503.3 | 515.3 | 542.2 | 607.2 | 541.5 | 554.0 | 582.0 | 649.1 | 692.3 | |||||
| Deposits | 515.9 | 648.9 | 692.3 | 613.6 | 588.6 | 715.0 | 743.4 | 644.0 | 694.5 | 745.2 | 898.2 | |||||
| Deposits in drams | 329.2 | 392.7 | 443.9 | 386.5 | 355.9 | 336.4 | 352.3 | 234.6 | 265.2 | 294.5 | 397.2 | |||||
| Deposits in foreign currency | 186.8 | 256.2 | 248.4 | 227.0 | 232.7 | 378.6 | 391.1 | 409.4 | 429.3 | 450.7 | 501.0 | |||||
| Banking system | ||||||||||||||||
| Net foreign assets | 61.8 | -78.7 | -147.5 | -142.4 | -77.4 | -74.0 | -205.0 | -291.9 | -325.7 | -340.4 | -325.8 | |||||
| Net domestic assets | 2,521.0 | 2,853.8 | 2,897.7 | 2,935.2 | 2,968.0 | 3,159.4 | 3,160.6 | 3,047.6 | 3,262.0 | 3,547.4 | 3,984.4 | |||||
| Claims on government (net) | 302.0 | 333.6 | 325.5 | 262.1 | 197.1 | 241.5 | 282.8 | 324.2 | 365.5 | 406.8 | 566.3 | |||||
| Of which : claims on central government (net) | 325.3 | 368.1 | 362.1 | 369.2 | 388.4 | 382.1 | 423.4 | 464.7 | 506.0 | 547.3 | 706.8 | |||||
| Claims on rest of the economy | 2,758.5 | 3,232.0 | 3,345.7 | 3,448.3 | 3,592.3 | 3,830.6 | 3,730.5 | 3,551.7 | 3,700.1 | 4,098.8 | 4,631.6 | |||||
| Other items (net) | -539.6 | -711.8 | -773.5 | -775.2 | -821.4 | -912.7 | -852.7 | -828.3 | -803.6 | -958.2 | -1,213.5 | |||||
| Broad money | 2,582.8 | 2,775.1 | 2,750.1 | 2,792.8 | 2,890.6 | 3,085.5 | 2,955.6 | 2,755.7 | 2,936.3 | 3,207.0 | 3,658.6 | |||||
| Currency in circulation | 425.8 | 477.0 | 434.4 | 442.1 | 464.5 | 502.3 | 457.5 | 465.6 | 489.2 | 529.0 | 557.0 | |||||
| Deposits | 2,140.7 | 2,298.1 | 2,315.7 | 2,350.7 | 2,426.1 | 2,583.2 | 2,498.1 | 2,290.1 | 2,447.1 | 2,678.1 | 3,101.6 | |||||
| Domestic currency | 940.6 | 1,089.8 | 1,129.7 | 1,168.3 | 1,233.3 | 1,400.8 | 1,299.2 | 1,109.9 | 1,188.1 | 1,386.8 | 1,802.9 | |||||
| Foreign currency | 1,200.1 | 1,208.3 | 1,186.0 | 1,182.4 | 1,192.8 | 1,182.3 | 1,198.9 | 1,180.2 | 1,259.0 | 1,291.3 | 1,298.7 | |||||
| Memorandum items: | ||||||||||||||||
| Exchange rate (drams per U.S. dollar, end of period) | 484.1 | 483.8 | 482.7 | 481.7 | 492.8 | 479.7 | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | |||||
| 12-month change in reserve money (in percent) | -1.0 | 17.8 | 22.5 | 14.4 | 1.8 | 8.8 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 12.9 | 5.4 | 14.1 | |||||
| 12-month change in broad money (in percent) | 18.5 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 11.2 | 7.5 | -1.3 | 1.6 | 3.9 | 14.1 | |||||
| 12-month change in dram broad money (in percent) | 27.3 | 14.7 | 13.7 | 13.9 | 16.4 | 21.5 | 12.3 | -2.2 | -1.2 | 0.7 | 23.2 | |||||
| 12-month change in private sector credit (in percent) | 16.5 | 17.2 | 16.0 | 13.1 | 15.2 | 18.5 | 11.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 13.0 | |||||
| Velocity of broad money (end of period) | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.9 | |||||
| Money multiplier | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | |||||
| Private sector credit (in percent of GDP) | 49.6 | 53.8 | 51.1 | 52.6 | 54.8 | 58.5 | 57.2 | 54.5 | 56.8 | 62.9 | 66.3 | |||||
| Dollarization in bank deposits 1/ | 56.1 | 52.6 | 51.2 | 50.3 | 49.2 | 45.8 | 48.0 | 51.5 | 51.4 | 48.2 | 41.9 | |||||
| Dollarization in broad money 2/ | 46.5 | 43.5 | 43.1 | 42.3 | 41.3 | 38.3 | 40.6 | 42.8 | 42.9 | 40.3 | 35.5 | |||||
| Currency in circulation in percent of deposits | 19.9 | 20.8 | 18.8 | 18.8 | 19.1 | 19.4 | 18.3 | 20.3 | 20.0 | 19.8 | 18.0 | |||||
Ratio of foreign currency deposits to total deposits (in percent).
Ratio of foreign currency deposits to broad money (in percent).
Table 4.
Sources: Central Bank of Armenia; and Fund staff estimates and projections.
Armenia: Monetary Accounts, 2017–21
(In billions of drams, unless otherwise indicated)
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar. | Jun. | Sep. | Dec. | Mar. | Jun. | Sep. | Dec. | Dec. | ||||||||
| Act. | Act. | Act | Est | Proj. | Proj. | |||||||||||
| Central Bank of Armenia | ||||||||||||||||
| Net foreign assets | 766.6 | 765.8 | 721.4 | 747.0 | 843.0 | 1071.8 | 949.7 | 872.8 | 850.1 | 847.4 | 919.9 | |||||
| Net international reserves | 977.0 | 971.6 | 927.1 | 946.3 | 1040.3 | 1268.5 | 1146.5 | 1069.6 | 1046.9 | 1044.1 | 1116.7 | |||||
| Other | -210.4 | -205.8 | -205.7 | -199.2 | -197.3 | -196.8 | -196.8 | -196.8 | -196.8 | -196.8 | -196.8 | |||||
| Net domestic assets | 265.4 | 449.8 | 474.2 | 381.9 | 287.8 | 250.5 | 335.2 | 325.2 | 426.5 | 546.9 | 670.6 | |||||
| Claims on general government (net) | -144.3 | -172.3 | -216.2 | -275.9 | -333.1 | -314.1 | -304.3 | -295.5 | -287.7 | -280.9 | -269.5 | |||||
| Of which : central government (net) | -121.0 | -137.8 | -179.6 | -168.8 | -141.8 | -173.6 | -163.8 | -155.0 | -147.2 | -140.4 | -129.0 | |||||
| Claims on banks | 107.6 | 299.1 | 364.3 | 325.2 | 294.4 | 231.7 | 231.7 | 231.7 | 231.7 | 231.7 | 231.7 | |||||
| Other items (net) | 302.1 | 323.0 | 326.1 | 332.5 | 326.5 | 332.9 | 407.8 | 389.0 | 482.5 | 596.1 | 708.5 | |||||
| Reserve money | 1,032.0 | 1,215.6 | 1,195.6 | 1,128.9 | 1,130.8 | 1,322.2 | 1,284.9 | 1,198.0 | 1,276.5 | 1,394.2 | 1,590.6 | |||||
| Currency issue | 516.1 | 566.7 | 503.3 | 515.3 | 542.2 | 607.2 | 541.5 | 554.0 | 582.0 | 649.1 | 692.3 | |||||
| Deposits | 515.9 | 648.9 | 692.3 | 613.6 | 588.6 | 715.0 | 743.4 | 644.0 | 694.5 | 745.2 | 898.2 | |||||
| Deposits in drams | 329.2 | 392.7 | 443.9 | 386.5 | 355.9 | 336.4 | 352.3 | 234.6 | 265.2 | 294.5 | 397.2 | |||||
| Deposits in foreign currency | 186.8 | 256.2 | 248.4 | 227.0 | 232.7 | 378.6 | 391.1 | 409.4 | 429.3 | 450.7 | 501.0 | |||||
| Banking system | ||||||||||||||||
| Net foreign assets | 61.8 | -78.7 | -147.5 | -142.4 | -77.4 | -74.0 | -205.0 | -291.9 | -325.7 | -340.4 | -325.8 | |||||
| Net domestic assets | 2,521.0 | 2,853.8 | 2,897.7 | 2,935.2 | 2,968.0 | 3,159.4 | 3,160.6 | 3,047.6 | 3,262.0 | 3,547.4 | 3,984.4 | |||||
| Claims on government (net) | 302.0 | 333.6 | 325.5 | 262.1 | 197.1 | 241.5 | 282.8 | 324.2 | 365.5 | 406.8 | 566.3 | |||||
| Of which : claims on central government (net) | 325.3 | 368.1 | 362.1 | 369.2 | 388.4 | 382.1 | 423.4 | 464.7 | 506.0 | 547.3 | 706.8 | |||||
| Claims on rest of the economy | 2,758.5 | 3,232.0 | 3,345.7 | 3,448.3 | 3,592.3 | 3,830.6 | 3,730.5 | 3,551.7 | 3,700.1 | 4,098.8 | 4,631.6 | |||||
| Other items (net) | -539.6 | -711.8 | -773.5 | -775.2 | -821.4 | -912.7 | -852.7 | -828.3 | -803.6 | -958.2 | -1,213.5 | |||||
| Broad money | 2,582.8 | 2,775.1 | 2,750.1 | 2,792.8 | 2,890.6 | 3,085.5 | 2,955.6 | 2,755.7 | 2,936.3 | 3,207.0 | 3,658.6 | |||||
| Currency in circulation | 425.8 | 477.0 | 434.4 | 442.1 | 464.5 | 502.3 | 457.5 | 465.6 | 489.2 | 529.0 | 557.0 | |||||
| Deposits | 2,140.7 | 2,298.1 | 2,315.7 | 2,350.7 | 2,426.1 | 2,583.2 | 2,498.1 | 2,290.1 | 2,447.1 | 2,678.1 | 3,101.6 | |||||
| Domestic currency | 940.6 | 1,089.8 | 1,129.7 | 1,168.3 | 1,233.3 | 1,400.8 | 1,299.2 | 1,109.9 | 1,188.1 | 1,386.8 | 1,802.9 | |||||
| Foreign currency | 1,200.1 | 1,208.3 | 1,186.0 | 1,182.4 | 1,192.8 | 1,182.3 | 1,198.9 | 1,180.2 | 1,259.0 | 1,291.3 | 1,298.7 | |||||
| Memorandum items: | ||||||||||||||||
| Exchange rate (drams per U.S. dollar, end of period) | 484.1 | 483.8 | 482.7 | 481.7 | 492.8 | 479.7 | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | |||||
| 12-month change in reserve money (in percent) | -1.0 | 17.8 | 22.5 | 14.4 | 1.8 | 8.8 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 12.9 | 5.4 | 14.1 | |||||
| 12-month change in broad money (in percent) | 18.5 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 11.2 | 7.5 | -1.3 | 1.6 | 3.9 | 14.1 | |||||
| 12-month change in dram broad money (in percent) | 27.3 | 14.7 | 13.7 | 13.9 | 16.4 | 21.5 | 12.3 | -2.2 | -1.2 | 0.7 | 23.2 | |||||
| 12-month change in private sector credit (in percent) | 16.5 | 17.2 | 16.0 | 13.1 | 15.2 | 18.5 | 11.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 13.0 | |||||
| Velocity of broad money (end of period) | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.9 | |||||
| Money multiplier | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | |||||
| Private sector credit (in percent of GDP) | 49.6 | 53.8 | 51.1 | 52.6 | 54.8 | 58.5 | 57.2 | 54.5 | 56.8 | 62.9 | 66.3 | |||||
| Dollarization in bank deposits 1/ | 56.1 | 52.6 | 51.2 | 50.3 | 49.2 | 45.8 | 48.0 | 51.5 | 51.4 | 48.2 | 41.9 | |||||
| Dollarization in broad money 2/ | 46.5 | 43.5 | 43.1 | 42.3 | 41.3 | 38.3 | 40.6 | 42.8 | 42.9 | 40.3 | 35.5 | |||||
| Currency in circulation in percent of deposits | 19.9 | 20.8 | 18.8 | 18.8 | 19.1 | 19.4 | 18.3 | 20.3 | 20.0 | 19.8 | 18.0 | |||||
Ratio of foreign currency deposits to total deposits (in percent).
Ratio of foreign currency deposits to broad money (in percent).
Table 5.Source: Central Bank of Armenia.
Armenia: Financial Soundness Indicators for the Banking Sector, 2016–20
(In percent, unless otherwise indicated)
Table 5.
Armenia: Financial Soundness Indicators for the Banking Sector, 2016–20
(In percent, unless otherwise indicated)
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec | Dec | Dec | Mar | June | Sept | Dec | Jan | |||||
| Capital adequacy | ||||||||||||
| Total regulatory capital to risk-weighted assets | 20.0 | 18.6 | 17.7 | 17.9 | 17.4 | 17.5 | 17.6 | 17.2 | ||||
| Capital (net worth) to assets | 16.2 | 15.7 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 14.7 | 14.8 | 14.1 | 14.5 | ||||
| Asset composition | ||||||||||||
| Sectoral distribution of loans (in billions of drams) | ||||||||||||
| Industry (excluding energy sector) | 227.1 | 256.3 | 327.9 | 337.7 | 340.5 | 345.2 | 357.4 | 348.8 | ||||
| Energy sector | 162.2 | 191.4 | 182.2 | 158.3 | 130.8 | 143.0 | 134.0 | 140.4 | ||||
| Agriculture | 140.1 | 144.2 | 143.3 | 146.6 | 155.1 | 154.6 | 161.4 | 159.8 | ||||
| Construction | 102.8 | 143.8 | 161.2 | 170.8 | 172.6 | 182.0 | 192.7 | 191.3 | ||||
| Transport and communication | 79.7 | 73.8 | 106.4 | 105.4 | 102.9 | 105.5 | 101.7 | 111.1 | ||||
| Trade/commerce | 335.8 | 419.6 | 441.1 | 443.5 | 460.9 | 467.5 | 508.6 | 485.6 | ||||
| Consumer credits | 434.2 | 511.4 | 701.1 | 744.4 | 795.4 | 846.0 | 915.9 | 928.2 | ||||
| Mortgage loans | 183.7 | 209.0 | 255.2 | 270.2 | 295.3 | 321.6 | 358.8 | 363.4 | ||||
| Sectoral distribution of loans to total loans (percent of total) | ||||||||||||
| Industry (excluding energy sector) | 10.6 | 8.8 | 11.1 | 11.2 | 10.8 | 10.6 | 10.1 | 10.0 | ||||
| Energy sector | 6.5 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 4.0 | ||||
| Agriculture | 8.7 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.6 | ||||
| Construction | 4.8 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.5 | ||||
| Transport and communication | 3.7 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.2 | ||||
| Trade/commerce | 15.7 | 16.3 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 14.3 | 14.4 | 13.9 | ||||
| Mortgage loans | 8.6 | 8.1 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 10.2 | 10.4 | ||||
| Consumer credits | 20.3 | 19.9 | 24.1 | 24.6 | 25.3 | 25.9 | 26.0 | 26.6 | ||||
| Other sectors | 21.1 | 25.3 | 21.1 | 21.4 | 21.5 | 21.6 | 22.5 | 21.8 | ||||
| Foreign exchange loans to total loans | 64.6 | 63.5 | 57.1 | 55.8 | 54.5 | 53.5 | 52.4 | 52.0 | ||||
| Asset quality | ||||||||||||
| Nonperforming loans (in billions of drams) | 162.2 | 146.7 | 146.4 | 158.5 | 177.7 | 186.2 | 200.0 | 210.8 | ||||
| Watch (up to 90 days past due) | 50.8 | 40.7 | 48.0 | 64.5 | 71.6 | 64.3 | 75.1 | 84.0 | ||||
| Substandard (91–180 days past due) | 45.0 | 58.3 | 40.9 | 42.5 | 49.0 | 67.2 | 68.3 | 72.4 | ||||
| Doubtful (181–270 days past due) | 66.4 | 47.7 | 57.5 | 51.6 | 57.1 | 54.7 | 56.6 | 54.3 | ||||
| Loss (>270 days past due, in billions of drams) | 354.3 | 442.5 | 272.0 | 278.4 | 278.4 | 285.4 | 286.5 | 294.9 | ||||
| Nonperforming loans to gross loans | 6.7 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.8 | ||||
| Provisions to nonperforming loans | 52.0 | 51.5 | 56.6 | 52.1 | 50.9 | 51.1 | 49.9 | 46.9 | ||||
| Spread between highest and lowest rates of interbank borrowing in AMD | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | ||||
| Spread between highest and lowest rates of interbank borrowing in FX | 0.0 | 0.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 2.7 | ||||
| Earnings and profitability | ||||||||||||
| ROA (profits to period average assets) | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | ||||
| ROE (profits to period average equity) | 7.0 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 10.4 | 9.6 | 10.7 | 11.2 | 12.0 | ||||
| Interest margin to gross income | 29.2 | 30.6 | 32.1 | 32.1 | 31.8 | 31.9 | 31.8 | 35.9 | ||||
| Interest income to gross income | 76.7 | 77.2 | 75.1 | 75.7 | 75.2 | 74.3 | 73.4 | 78.0 | ||||
| Noninterest expenses to gross income | 29.1 | 29.9 | 33.4 | 30.9 | 30.0 | 29.8 | 30.6 | 28.8 | ||||
| Liquidity | ||||||||||||
| Liquid assets to total assets | 32.5 | 32.1 | 27.3 | 27.2 | 27.2 | 27.6 | 27.1 | 27.5 | ||||
| Liquid assets to total short-term liabilities | 170.8 | 141.7 | 116.6 | 116.0 | 111.4 | 108.2 | 111.7 | 112.8 | ||||
| Customer deposits to total (non-interbank) loans | 115.0 | 117.0 | 111.9 | 110.4 | 109.3 | 109.5 | 112.1 | 112.6 | ||||
| Foreign exchange liabilities to total liabilities | 62.6 | 60.0 | 58.3 | 56.9 | 56.6 | 56.6 | 55.4 | 55.4 | ||||
| Sensitivity to market risk | ||||||||||||
| Gross open positions in foreign exchange to capital | 6.9 | 4.0 | 6.1 | |||||||||