Abstract
Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Democratic Republic of the Congo
| Risk of external debt distress: | Moderate |
| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |
| Granularity in the risk rating | Some space to absorb shocks |
| Application of judgment | No |
| Risk of external debt distress: | Moderate |
| Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate |
| Granularity in the risk rating | Some space to absorb shocks |
| Application of judgment | No |
DRC’s debt is assessed to remain sustainable with a moderate risk of debt distress under the COVID-19 pandemic shock although its debt-carrying capacity remains weak.2 The new baseline in this Staff Report is shown as a stress test in the figures and tables herein, together with the scenarios of the previous Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) of December 2019. The main channels through which the pandemic affects DRC’s economy are through lower commodity prices, and supply and demand disruptions in the local economy. The larger current account deficit and especially the less favorable fiscal position in the new baseline give rise to larger financing needs. Still, typical debt and debt-service ratios remain within reasonable bounds as the shock is not as extreme as the standard exports shock. The shock reflects currently available information. Given the rapidly evolving nature of the COVID-19 crisis, risks are heavily tilted to the downside
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt under Alternatives Scenarios, 2019–29
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2020, 146; 10.5089/9781513542737.002.A002
Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.1/ The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio in or before 2029. The stress test with a one-off breach is also presented (if any), while the one-off breach is deemed away for mechanical signals. When a stress test with a one-off breach happens to be the most exterme shock even after disregarding the one-off breach, only that stress test (with a one-off breach) would be presented.Democratic Republic of the Congo: Indicators of Public Debt Under Alternative Scenarios, 2019–29
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2020, 146; 10.5089/9781513542737.002.A002
Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.1/ The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio in or before 2029. The stress test with a one-off breach is also presented (if any), while the one-off breach is deemed away for mechanical signals. When a stress test with a one-off breach happens to be the most exterme shock even after disregarding the one-off breach, only that stress test (with a one-off breach) would be presented.
Annex Table 1.
Sources: County authorities; and staff estates and projections.
1/ Includes both public and private sector external debt.
2/ Derived as [r – g – ρ(1+g) + Ɛα (1+r)]/(1+g+ρ+gρ) times previous period debt ratio, with r = nominal interest rate; g = real GDP growth rate, ρ = growth rate of GDP deflator in U.S. dollar terms, Ɛ=nominal appreciation of the local currency, and α= share of local currency-denominated external debt in total external debt.
3/ Includes exceptional financing (i.e., changes in arrears and debt relief); changes in gross foreign assets; and valuation adjustments. For projections also includes contibution from price and exchange rate changes.
4/ Current-year interest payments divided by previous period debt stock.
5/ Defined as grants, concessional loan, and debt relief.
6/ Grant-equvalent financing includes grants provided directly to the government and through new borrowing (difference between the face value and the PV of new debt).
7/ Assumes that PV of private sector debt is equialent to its face value.
8/ Historical averages are generally deried over the past 10 years, subject to data availability, whereas projections averages are over the first year of projection and the next 10 years.
Democratic Republic of the Congo: External Debt Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2016–39
(in percent)
Annex Table 1.
Sources: County authorities; and staff estates and projections.
1/ Includes both public and private sector external debt.
2/ Derived as [r – g – ρ(1+g) + Ɛα (1+r)]/(1+g+ρ+gρ) times previous period debt ratio, with r = nominal interest rate; g = real GDP growth rate, ρ = growth rate of GDP deflator in U.S. dollar terms, Ɛ=nominal appreciation of the local currency, and α= share of local currency-denominated external debt in total external debt.
3/ Includes exceptional financing (i.e., changes in arrears and debt relief); changes in gross foreign assets; and valuation adjustments. For projections also includes contibution from price and exchange rate changes.
4/ Current-year interest payments divided by previous period debt stock.
5/ Defined as grants, concessional loan, and debt relief.
6/ Grant-equvalent financing includes grants provided directly to the government and through new borrowing (difference between the face value and the PV of new debt).
7/ Assumes that PV of private sector debt is equialent to its face value.
8/ Historical averages are generally deried over the past 10 years, subject to data availability, whereas projections averages are over the first year of projection and the next 10 years.
Democratic Republic of the Congo: External Debt Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2016–39
(in percent)
|
|
Annex Table 1.
Sources: County authorities; and staff estates and projections.
1/ Includes both public and private sector external debt.
2/ Derived as [r – g – ρ(1+g) + Ɛα (1+r)]/(1+g+ρ+gρ) times previous period debt ratio, with r = nominal interest rate; g = real GDP growth rate, ρ = growth rate of GDP deflator in U.S. dollar terms, Ɛ=nominal appreciation of the local currency, and α= share of local currency-denominated external debt in total external debt.
3/ Includes exceptional financing (i.e., changes in arrears and debt relief); changes in gross foreign assets; and valuation adjustments. For projections also includes contibution from price and exchange rate changes.
4/ Current-year interest payments divided by previous period debt stock.
5/ Defined as grants, concessional loan, and debt relief.
6/ Grant-equvalent financing includes grants provided directly to the government and through new borrowing (difference between the face value and the PV of new debt).
7/ Assumes that PV of private sector debt is equialent to its face value.
8/ Historical averages are generally deried over the past 10 years, subject to data availability, whereas projections averages are over the first year of projection and the next 10 years.
Democratic Republic of the Congo: External Debt Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2016–39
(in percent)
|
|
Annex Table 2.
Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.
1/ Coverage of debt: The central, state, and local governments, central bank, government-guaranteed debt, non-guaranteed SOE debt. Definition of external debt is Residency-based.
2/ The underlying PV of external debt-to-GDP ratio under the public DSA differs from the external DSA with the size of differences depending on exchange rates projections.
3/ Debt service is defined as the sum of interest and amortization of medium and long-term, and short-term debt.
4/ Gross financing need is defined as the primary deficit plus debt service plus the stock of short-term debt at the end of the last period and other debt creating/reducing flows.
5/ Defined as a primary deficit minus a change in the public debt-to-GDP ratio ((-): a primary surplus), which would stabilizes the debt ratio only in the year in question.
6/ Historical averages are generally derived over the past 10 years, subject to data availability, whereas projections averages are over the first year of projection and the next 10 years.
Democratic Republic of the Congo : Public Sector Debt Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2016–29
(In percent)
Annex Table 2.
Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.
1/ Coverage of debt: The central, state, and local governments, central bank, government-guaranteed debt, non-guaranteed SOE debt. Definition of external debt is Residency-based.
2/ The underlying PV of external debt-to-GDP ratio under the public DSA differs from the external DSA with the size of differences depending on exchange rates projections.
3/ Debt service is defined as the sum of interest and amortization of medium and long-term, and short-term debt.
4/ Gross financing need is defined as the primary deficit plus debt service plus the stock of short-term debt at the end of the last period and other debt creating/reducing flows.
5/ Defined as a primary deficit minus a change in the public debt-to-GDP ratio ((-): a primary surplus), which would stabilizes the debt ratio only in the year in question.
6/ Historical averages are generally derived over the past 10 years, subject to data availability, whereas projections averages are over the first year of projection and the next 10 years.
Democratic Republic of the Congo : Public Sector Debt Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2016–29
(In percent)
|
|
Annex Table 2.
Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.
1/ Coverage of debt: The central, state, and local governments, central bank, government-guaranteed debt, non-guaranteed SOE debt. Definition of external debt is Residency-based.
2/ The underlying PV of external debt-to-GDP ratio under the public DSA differs from the external DSA with the size of differences depending on exchange rates projections.
3/ Debt service is defined as the sum of interest and amortization of medium and long-term, and short-term debt.
4/ Gross financing need is defined as the primary deficit plus debt service plus the stock of short-term debt at the end of the last period and other debt creating/reducing flows.
5/ Defined as a primary deficit minus a change in the public debt-to-GDP ratio ((-): a primary surplus), which would stabilizes the debt ratio only in the year in question.
6/ Historical averages are generally derived over the past 10 years, subject to data availability, whereas projections averages are over the first year of projection and the next 10 years.
Democratic Republic of the Congo : Public Sector Debt Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2016–29
(In percent)
|
|
Annex Table 3.
Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt, 2019–29
(In percent)
A bold value indicates a breach of the threshold.
Variables include real GDP growth, GDP deflator (in U.S. dollar terms), non-interest current account in percent of GDP, and non-debt creating flows.
Includes official and private transfers and FDI.
Annex Table 3.
Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt, 2019–29
(In percent)
| Projections 1/ | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |
| PV of debt-to GDP ratio | |||||||||||
| Baseline | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | |||||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2019–2029 2/ | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
| A2. Alternative Scenario : Covid-19 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| B. Bound Tests | |||||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| B2. Primary balance | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| B3. Exports | 10 | 17 | 27 | 26 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 19 | 18 | 17 |
| B4. Other flows 3/ | 10 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| B5. Depreciation | 10 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| B6. Combination of B1-B5 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| C. Tailored Tests | |||||||||||
| C1. Combined contingent liabilities | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| C2. Natural disaster | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| C3. Commodity price | 10 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| C4. Market Financing | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Threshold | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
| PV of debt-to-exports ratio | |||||||||||
| Baseline | 38 | 41 | 38 | 33 | 28 | 24 | 21 | 19 | 17 | 16 | 15 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | |||||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2019–2029 2/ | 38 | 39 | 36 | 32 | 30 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 30 | 32 | 35 |
| A2. Alternative Scenario : Covid-19 | 38 | 51 | 49 | 40 | 34 | 28 | 24 | 21 | 19 | 18 | 17 |
| B. Bound Tests | |||||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth | 38 | 41 | 38 | 33 | 28 | 24 | 21 | 19 | 17 | 16 | 15 |
| B2. Primary balance | 38 | 45 | 50 | 48 | 45 | 41 | 40 | 37 | 35 | 34 | 32 |
| B3. Exports | 38 | 105 | 243 | 222 | 205 | 191 | 186 | 176 | 164 | 154 | 144 |
| B4. Other flows 3/ | 38 | 48 | 52 | 46 | 40 | 36 | 33 | 30 | 28 | 26 | 25 |
| B5. Depreciation | 38 | 41 | 31 | 25 | 21 | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| B6. Combination of B1-B5 | 38 | 71 | 55 | 72 | 64 | 58 | 54 | 49 | 45 | 42 | 40 |
| C. Tailored Tests | |||||||||||
| C1. Combined contingent liabilities | 38 | 49 | 51 | 47 | 43 | 40 | 38 | 35 | 34 | 33 | 31 |
| C2. Natural disaster | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| C3. Commodity price | 38 | 51 | 54 | 46 | 40 | 35 | 32 | 29 | 26 | 24 | 22 |
| C4. Market Financing | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Threshold | 140 | 140 | 140 | 140 | 140 | 140 | 140 | 140 | 140 | 140 | 140 |
| Debt service-to-exports ratio | |||||||||||
| Baseline | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | |||||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2019–2029 2/ | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| A2. Alternative Scenario : Covid-19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| B. Bound Tests | |||||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| B2. Primary balance | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| B3. Exports | 5 | 9 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 14 |
| B4. Other flows 3/ | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| B5. Depreciation | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| B6. Combination of B1-B5 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| C. Tailored Tests | |||||||||||
| C1. Combined contingent liabilities | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| C2. Natural disaster | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| C3. Commodity price | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| C4. Market Financing | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Threshold | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Debt service-to-revenue ratio | |||||||||||
| Baseline | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | |||||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2019–2029 2/ | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| A2. Alternative Scenario : Covid-19 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| B. Bound Tests | 11 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| B1. Real GDP growth | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| B2. Primary balance | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
| B3. Exports | 11 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 |
| B4. Other flows 3/ | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| B5. Depreciation | 11 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| B6. Combination of B1-B5 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| C. Tailored Tests | |||||||||||
| C1. Combined contingent liabilities | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| C2. Natural disaster | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| C3. Commodity price | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| C4. Market Financing | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Threshold | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
A bold value indicates a breach of the threshold.
Variables include real GDP growth, GDP deflator (in U.S. dollar terms), non-interest current account in percent of GDP, and non-debt creating flows.
Includes official and private transfers and FDI.
Annex Table 3.
Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt, 2019–29
(In percent)
| Projections 1/ | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |
| PV of debt-to GDP ratio | |||||||||||
| Baseline | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | |||||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2019–2029 2/ | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
| A2. Alternative Scenario : Covid-19 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| B. Bound Tests | |||||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| B2. Primary balance | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| B3. Exports | 10 | 17 | 27 | 26 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 19 | 18 | 17 |
| B4. Other flows 3/ | 10 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| B5. Depreciation | 10 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| B6. Combination of B1-B5 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| C. Tailored Tests | |||||||||||
| C1. Combined contingent liabilities | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| C2. Natural disaster | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| C3. Commodity price | 10 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| C4. Market Financing | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Threshold | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
| PV of debt-to-exports ratio | |||||||||||
| Baseline | 38 | 41 | 38 | 33 | 28 | 24 | 21 | 19 | 17 | 16 | 15 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | |||||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2019–2029 2/ | 38 | 39 | 36 | 32 | 30 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 30 | 32 | 35 |
| A2. Alternative Scenario : Covid-19 | 38 | 51 | 49 | 40 | 34 | 28 | 24 | 21 | 19 | 18 | 17 |
| B. Bound Tests | |||||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth | 38 | 41 | 38 | 33 | 28 | 24 | 21 | 19 | 17 | 16 | 15 |
| B2. Primary balance | 38 | 45 | 50 | 48 | 45 | 41 | 40 | 37 | 35 | 34 | 32 |
| B3. Exports | 38 | 105 | 243 | 222 | 205 | 191 | 186 | 176 | 164 | 154 | 144 |
| B4. Other flows 3/ | 38 | 48 | 52 | 46 | 40 | 36 | 33 | 30 | 28 | 26 | 25 |
| B5. Depreciation | 38 | 41 | 31 | 25 | 21 | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| B6. Combination of B1-B5 | 38 | 71 | 55 | 72 | 64 | 58 | 54 | 49 | 45 | 42 | 40 |
| C. Tailored Tests | |||||||||||
| C1. Combined contingent liabilities | 38 | 49 | 51 | 47 | 43 | 40 | 38 | 35 | 34 | 33 | 31 |
| C2. Natural disaster | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| C3. Commodity price | 38 | 51 | 54 | 46 | 40 | 35 | 32 | 29 | 26 | 24 | 22 |
| C4. Market Financing | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Threshold | 140 | 140 | 140 | 140 | 140 | 140 | 140 | 140 | 140 | 140 | 140 |
| Debt service-to-exports ratio | |||||||||||
| Baseline | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | |||||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2019–2029 2/ | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| A2. Alternative Scenario : Covid-19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| B. Bound Tests | |||||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| B2. Primary balance | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| B3. Exports | 5 | 9 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 14 |
| B4. Other flows 3/ | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| B5. Depreciation | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| B6. Combination of B1-B5 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| C. Tailored Tests | |||||||||||
| C1. Combined contingent liabilities | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| C2. Natural disaster | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| C3. Commodity price | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| C4. Market Financing | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Threshold | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Debt service-to-revenue ratio | |||||||||||
| Baseline | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | |||||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2019–2029 2/ | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| A2. Alternative Scenario : Covid-19 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| B. Bound Tests | 11 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| B1. Real GDP growth | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| B2. Primary balance | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
| B3. Exports | 11 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 |
| B4. Other flows 3/ | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| B5. Depreciation | 11 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| B6. Combination of B1-B5 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| C. Tailored Tests | |||||||||||
| C1. Combined contingent liabilities | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| C2. Natural disaster | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| C3. Commodity price | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| C4. Market Financing | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Threshold | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
A bold value indicates a breach of the threshold.
Variables include real GDP growth, GDP deflator (in U.S. dollar terms), non-interest current account in percent of GDP, and non-debt creating flows.
Includes official and private transfers and FDI.
Annex Table 4.
Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public Debt, 2019–29
(In percent)
A bold value indicates a breach of the benchmark.
Variables include real GDP growth, GDP deflator and primary deficit in percent of GDP.
Includes official and private transfers and FDI.
Annex Table 4.
Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public Debt, 2019–29
(In percent)
| Projections 1/ | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |
| PV of Debt-to-GDP Ratio | |||||||||||
| Baseline | 17 | 17 | 16 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | |||||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2019–2029 2/ | 17 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | -1 | -2 | -3 | -4 |
| A2. Alternative Scenario : Covid-19 | 17 | 19 | 18 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 |
| B. Bound Tests | |||||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth | 17 | 18 | 19 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 |
| B2. Primary balance | 17 | 21 | 23 | 21 | 18 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| B3. Exports | 17 | 23 | 32 | 30 | 28 | 26 | 24 | 22 | 20 | 19 | 17 |
| B4. Other flows 3/ | 17 | 19 | 20 | 18 | 16 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
| B5. Depreciation | 17 | 19 | 17 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| B6. Combination of B1-B5 | 17 | 19 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 |
| C. Tailored Tests | |||||||||||
| C1. Combined contingent liabilities | 17 | 24 | 22 | 20 | 18 | 16 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| C2. Natural disaster | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| C3. Commodity price | 17 | 18 | 19 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| C4. Market Financing | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| TOTAL public debt benchmark | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 |
| PV of Debt-to-Revenue Ratio | |||||||||||
| Baseline | 146 | 128 | 118 | 100 | 86 | 72 | 63 | 56 | 50 | 47 | 41 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | |||||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2019–2029 2/ | 146 | 109 | 82 | 56 | 35 | 18 | 6 | ( 5) | ( 13) | ( 21) | ( 28) |
| A2. Alternative Scenario : Covid-19 | 5 | 13 | 26 | 23 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 23 | 20 | 19 | 17 |
| B. Bound Tests | |||||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth | 146 | 135 | 134 | 120 | 109 | 98 | 92 | 89 | 87 | 88 | 84 |
| B2. Primary balance | 146 | 155 | 168 | 144 | 125 | 109 | 98 | 91 | 84 | 81 | 73 |
| B3. Exports | 146 | 172 | 230 | 207 | 188 | 170 | 160 | 151 | 139 | 132 | 119 |
| B4. Other flows 3/ | 146 | 140 | 142 | 124 | 108 | 94 | 84 | 77 | 69 | 65 | 58 |
| B5. Depreciation | 146 | 141 | 123 | 102 | 83 | 65 | 51 | 40 | 30 | 22 | 12 |
| B6. Combination of B1-B5 | 146 | 140 | 131 | 105 | 87 | 71 | 60 | 53 | 47 | 44 | 38 |
| C. Tailored Tests | |||||||||||
| C1. Combined contingent liabilities | 146 | 176 | 160 | 137 | 120 | 104 | 94 | 86 | 80 | 77 | 70 |
| C2. Natural disaster | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| C3. Commodity price | 146 | 145 | 144 | 136 | 127 | 116 | 110 | 106 | 103 | 105 | 101 |
| C4. Market Financing | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Debt Service-to-Revenue Ratio | |||||||||||
| Baseline | 5 | 11 | 21 | 21 | 19 | 19 | 17 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 11 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | |||||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2019–2029 2/ | 5 | 10 | 17 | 15 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| A2. Alternative Scenario : Covid-19 | 5 | 13 | 26 | 23 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 23 | 20 | 19 | 17 |
| B. Bound Tests | |||||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth | 5 | 12 | 24 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 27 | 26 | 24 | 24 | 23 |
| B2. Primary balance | 5 | 11 | 40 | 50 | 37 | 29 | 24 | 20 | 17 | 17 | 16 |
| B3. Exports | 5 | 11 | 22 | 24 | 22 | 21 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 18 |
| B4. Other flows 3/ | 5 | 11 | 21 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 17 | 16 | 14 | 13 | 13 |
| B5. Depreciation | 5 | 12 | 23 | 20 | 21 | 19 | 18 | 16 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| B6. Combination of B1-B5 | 5 | 11 | 20 | 29 | 23 | 20 | 17 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 11 |
| C. Tailored Tests | |||||||||||
| C1. Combined contingent liabilities | 5 | 11 | 54 | 40 | 31 | 26 | 22 | 19 | 15 | 14 | 13 |
| C2. Natural disaster | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| C3. Commodity price | 5 | 12 | 23 | 23 | 29 | 32 | 31 | 30 | 27 | 27 | 26 |
| C4. Market Financing | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
A bold value indicates a breach of the benchmark.
Variables include real GDP growth, GDP deflator and primary deficit in percent of GDP.
Includes official and private transfers and FDI.
Annex Table 4.
Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public Debt, 2019–29
(In percent)
| Projections 1/ | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |
| PV of Debt-to-GDP Ratio | |||||||||||
| Baseline | 17 | 17 | 16 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | |||||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2019–2029 2/ | 17 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | -1 | -2 | -3 | -4 |
| A2. Alternative Scenario : Covid-19 | 17 | 19 | 18 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 |
| B. Bound Tests | |||||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth | 17 | 18 | 19 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 |
| B2. Primary balance | 17 | 21 | 23 | 21 | 18 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| B3. Exports | 17 | 23 | 32 | 30 | 28 | 26 | 24 | 22 | 20 | 19 | 17 |
| B4. Other flows 3/ | 17 | 19 | 20 | 18 | 16 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
| B5. Depreciation | 17 | 19 | 17 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| B6. Combination of B1-B5 | 17 | 19 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 |
| C. Tailored Tests | |||||||||||
| C1. Combined contingent liabilities | 17 | 24 | 22 | 20 | 18 | 16 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| C2. Natural disaster | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| C3. Commodity price | 17 | 18 | 19 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| C4. Market Financing | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| TOTAL public debt benchmark | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 |
| PV of Debt-to-Revenue Ratio | |||||||||||
| Baseline | 146 | 128 | 118 | 100 | 86 | 72 | 63 | 56 | 50 | 47 | 41 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | |||||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2019–2029 2/ | 146 | 109 | 82 | 56 | 35 | 18 | 6 | ( 5) | ( 13) | ( 21) | ( 28) |
| A2. Alternative Scenario : Covid-19 | 5 | 13 | 26 | 23 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 23 | 20 | 19 | 17 |
| B. Bound Tests | |||||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth | 146 | 135 | 134 | 120 | 109 | 98 | 92 | 89 | 87 | 88 | 84 |
| B2. Primary balance | 146 | 155 | 168 | 144 | 125 | 109 | 98 | 91 | 84 | 81 | 73 |
| B3. Exports | 146 | 172 | 230 | 207 | 188 | 170 | 160 | 151 | 139 | 132 | 119 |
| B4. Other flows 3/ | 146 | 140 | 142 | 124 | 108 | 94 | 84 | 77 | 69 | 65 | 58 |
| B5. Depreciation | 146 | 141 | 123 | 102 | 83 | 65 | 51 | 40 | 30 | 22 | 12 |
| B6. Combination of B1-B5 | 146 | 140 | 131 | 105 | 87 | 71 | 60 | 53 | 47 | 44 | 38 |
| C. Tailored Tests | |||||||||||
| C1. Combined contingent liabilities | 146 | 176 | 160 | 137 | 120 | 104 | 94 | 86 | 80 | 77 | 70 |
| C2. Natural disaster | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| C3. Commodity price | 146 | 145 | 144 | 136 | 127 | 116 | 110 | 106 | 103 | 105 | 101 |
| C4. Market Financing | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Debt Service-to-Revenue Ratio | |||||||||||
| Baseline | 5 | 11 | 21 | 21 | 19 | 19 | 17 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 11 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | |||||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2019–2029 2/ | 5 | 10 | 17 | 15 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| A2. Alternative Scenario : Covid-19 | 5 | 13 | 26 | 23 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 23 | 20 | 19 | 17 |
| B. Bound Tests | |||||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth | 5 | 12 | 24 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 27 | 26 | 24 | 24 | 23 |
| B2. Primary balance | 5 | 11 | 40 | 50 | 37 | 29 | 24 | 20 | 17 | 17 | 16 |
| B3. Exports | 5 | 11 | 22 | 24 | 22 | 21 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 18 |
| B4. Other flows 3/ | 5 | 11 | 21 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 17 | 16 | 14 | 13 | 13 |
| B5. Depreciation | 5 | 12 | 23 | 20 | 21 | 19 | 18 | 16 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| B6. Combination of B1-B5 | 5 | 11 | 20 | 29 | 23 | 20 | 17 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 11 |
| C. Tailored Tests | |||||||||||
| C1. Combined contingent liabilities | 5 | 11 | 54 | 40 | 31 | 26 | 22 | 19 | 15 | 14 | 13 |
| C2. Natural disaster | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| C3. Commodity price | 5 | 12 | 23 | 23 | 29 | 32 | 31 | 30 | 27 | 27 | 26 |
| C4. Market Financing | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
A bold value indicates a breach of the benchmark.
Variables include real GDP growth, GDP deflator and primary deficit in percent of GDP.
Includes official and private transfers and FDI.
1
The COVID-19 Pandemic scenario is based on the projections described in the Staff Report, while other scenarios, including the baseline in this Annex, are based on the DSA of the previous Staff Report of December 2019 (See Country Report No. 19/388).
2
DRC’s Composite Indicator (CI) score is 2.03, corresponding to a weak debt-carrying capacity as confirmed by the October 2019 WEO assumptions and 2018 Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA).
