Abstract
Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Democratic Republic of the Congo
Context
1. The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is a fragile state which has been prone to recurrent health and humanitarian crises and violent conflicts. The country has experienced recurrent outbreaks of deadly infectious diseases. The most recent Ebola outbreak had been almost fully contained until the recent reporting of a few new cases, and a measles epidemic has spread to every province claiming more than 6,000 deaths so far. Cholera, which is endemic to many parts of the country, has also led to thousands of fatalities.
2. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, economic growth was already projected to decelerate in 2020 due to weaknesses in the mining sector. Real GDP growth was projected to slow down by more than 1 percentage point relative to 2019 due to the suspension of production at a large copper and cobalt mine (Mutanda mining) and the shutdown of Boss mining,1 which were also expected to have sizable impacts on export and fiscal receipts.
3. Budget pressures have been mounting since the start of 2020 due to weak revenue collection and increased spending pressures. Revenue performance has been weak and revenue mobilization reforms are lagging, critically on restoring the functioning of the VAT and digitalizing the core revenue processes. Spending pressures have increased markedly, particularly due to the implementation of the free basic education initiative. The deficit continued to be financed through advances from the BCC as financing options remained limited despite the reactivation of the treasury bonds’ market.
4. Performance under the Staff Monitored Program (SMP) was broadly satisfactory as of end-2019, but end-March targets are likely to be missed. Preliminary data suggest that all quantitative targets and structural benchmark at end-December 2019 were met. However, end- March targets are unlikely to be met as, in addition to the budget pressures listed above (¶3), the COVID-19 pandemic has started to weigh on the economy. The first and second SMP reviews are expected to take place in the coming weeks.
Impact of the Pandemic and Outlook
A. Initial Impact and Response
5. The impact of the pandemic is rapidly unfolding through various channels. The DRC is suffering directly from the COVID-19 pandemic, with 215 confirmed cases and 20 deaths as of April 9. COVID-19 containment measures (¶6) are projected to have a sizable impact on domestic activities. In addition, exports are being hit hard amid weaker commodity prices and global demand (Box 1 and Text Figure 1). The global outbreak has also disrupted trade, with significant spillovers to import-dependent local activities.
Copper and Cobalt Prices – 2020 Projections
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2020, 146; 10.5089/9781513542737.002.A001
COVID-19 Impact on the Mining Sector
The mining sector is now projected to contract by 5.5 percent in 2020. Copper prices have fallen by more than 20 percent since the onset of the crisis, reaching a four-year low. No major copper mine in DRC has officially revised down production forecasts for this year. However, Glencore’s Kamoto Copper Company (KCC), DRC’s largest copper mine, has postponed the commissioning of an acid production plant due in the first half of this year and repatriated 26 foreign workers. The Kamoa-Kakula mine and TFM, the second largest mining company, have put isolation practices in place. The governor of the province of Haut-Katanga imposed a temporary two-day lockdown after two suspected cases were found in Lumumbashi (they later tested negative for COVID-19). Reduced mining production is expected to spill over to other sectors, in particular fuels, chemicals, machinery, and other supply chain services. Several mines have their own medical facilities, and some have donated medical material to the authorities.
Copper and Cobalt prices
(London Metal Exchange, $/thousand metric tons)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2020, 146; 10.5089/9781513542737.002.A001
6. The government’s response to curb the spread of the virus has been swift. Since the confirmation of the first case in the country on March 10, the government has taken the following measures: prohibition of all travel from and to Kinshasa; suspension of passenger flights from high-risk countries; limitation of public service to only essential civil servants; prohibition of public gatherings involving more than 20 people; and closure of schools, churches, bars and restaurants for a four-week period. As the cases count continues to climb, the authorities are envisaging a lockdown of Kinshasa. The government has also prepared a COVID-19 national response plan aimed at strengthening the medical response that includes the creation of a COVID-19 response team, setting up specialized wards in public hospitals to cater for COVID-19 patients, procurement of essential medical supplies, and training of medical personnel. The national plan and its associated measures are estimated to cost US$138 million (0.3 percent of GDP).
7. The international community has pledged support to DRC. The World Bank is expected to provide US$47.2 million in extra-budgetary support to the national response plan and to reallocate its resource envelope (specifically from a planned education project) to disburse US$200 million in direct budget support through an emergency DPO. Some bilateral partners such as the European Union and the United States have also pledged their support. Other development partners, such as the African Development Bank, are expected to provide in-kind and financial support.
B. Outlook and Risks
8. The economic impact of the pandemic is expected to be substantial (Text Table 1). There is significant uncertainty regarding the size of the shock on the global and domestic economies and the pace of the recovery. Currently, staff estimate a substantial drop in the GDP growth rate of about six percentage points from 2019 to 2020 (from 4.4 to -2.2 percent). All economic sectors will be affected, but the brunt of the pandemic will be particularly felt in services and in mining. GDP growth is expected to slowly recover from 2021 onwards. The delayed implementation of public infrastructure spending and of private investment projects, especially in the mining and construction sectors, will contribute to a further slowdown of economic activity in the short run, before supporting a gradual recovery in the second half of the year and throughout 2021. The pace of inflation and exchange rate depreciation is expected to increase somewhat in 2020 in the context of scarcer foreign exchange and imported basic goods. The central government finances will be affected in 2020 by both lower revenue and higher COVID-19 related expenditures.
Revised Macroeconomic Framework
Revised Macroeconomic Framework
| 2019 | 2020 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prel. | SMP | Proj. | ||
| Real GDP (percent change) | 4.4 | 3.2 | -2.2 | |
| of which: extractive | 1.0 | -2.4 | -5.3 | |
| GDP deflator (percent change) | 3.0 | 5.7 | 9.3 | |
| CPI inflation, average (percent) | 4.8 | 5.0 | 11.0 | |
| CPI inflation, eop (percent) | 5.5 | 5.0 | 12.0 | |
| Overall fiscal balance (% GDP), commitment basis | -2.1 | -0.6 | -1.2 | |
| Current account deficit (% GDP), incl. transfers | -4.2 | -4.3 | -5.4 | |
Revised Macroeconomic Framework
| 2019 | 2020 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prel. | SMP | Proj. | ||
| Real GDP (percent change) | 4.4 | 3.2 | -2.2 | |
| of which: extractive | 1.0 | -2.4 | -5.3 | |
| GDP deflator (percent change) | 3.0 | 5.7 | 9.3 | |
| CPI inflation, average (percent) | 4.8 | 5.0 | 11.0 | |
| CPI inflation, eop (percent) | 5.5 | 5.0 | 12.0 | |
| Overall fiscal balance (% GDP), commitment basis | -2.1 | -0.6 | -1.2 | |
| Current account deficit (% GDP), incl. transfers | -4.2 | -4.3 | -5.4 | |
Contribution to real GDP growth
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2020, 146; 10.5089/9781513542737.002.A001
Sources: Congolese authorities and IMF staff estimates.9. The pandemic creates an urgent balance of payments need (Text Table 2). Mining exports (accounting for 94 percent of 2019 exports) are expected to fall significantly due to a combination of pandemic-related closures and declining global prices. The impact on the trade balance would be somewhat offset by a concomitant import compression, notwithstanding a significant increase in health-related imports to combat the pandemic. Reduced FDI inflows would also contribute to the BOP financing gap estimated at US$631 million or 1.3 percent of GDP. Without the mobilization of substantial financing, the authorities will not be able to reprioritize spending and cushion the deterioration in the external position. Reserves are expected to fall to 3.6 weeks of imports in 2020, below the SMP’s target of 4.2 weeks.
The Impact of COVID Shock on the Balance of Payments
The Impact of COVID Shock on the Balance of Payments
| 2020 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Million USD | Percent of GDP | ||
| Exports, goods and services (A) | -1,778 | -3.7 | |
| Of which prices of copper, cobalt and oil | -1,467 | -3.1 | |
| Of which volumes of copper, cobalt and oil | -336 | -0.7 | |
| Imports, goods and services (B) | -1,413 | -2.9 | |
| Of which increase due to Covid-related spending | 612 | 1.3 | |
| Foreign Direct Investment (C) | -266 | -0.6 | |
| BOP Financing Needs (A)-(B)+(C) | -631 | -1.3 | |
| Memorandum Items: | |||
| Gross reserves | 765 | ||
| in weeks of non-aid imports | 3.6 | ||
The Impact of COVID Shock on the Balance of Payments
| 2020 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Million USD | Percent of GDP | ||
| Exports, goods and services (A) | -1,778 | -3.7 | |
| Of which prices of copper, cobalt and oil | -1,467 | -3.1 | |
| Of which volumes of copper, cobalt and oil | -336 | -0.7 | |
| Imports, goods and services (B) | -1,413 | -2.9 | |
| Of which increase due to Covid-related spending | 612 | 1.3 | |
| Foreign Direct Investment (C) | -266 | -0.6 | |
| BOP Financing Needs (A)-(B)+(C) | -631 | -1.3 | |
| Memorandum Items: | |||
| Gross reserves | 765 | ||
| in weeks of non-aid imports | 3.6 | ||
10. Downside risks dominate. The economic outlook is grounded in the temporary nature of the pandemic and a normalization of the global economic outlook by the end of 2020. A more protracted or recurrent pattern of the pandemic at the global or regional levels would further deepen and delay the economic recovery. Domestically, key downside risks are related to the speed of the recovery (or lack thereof), especially of the mining sector, and the containment of other ongoing outbreaks. Upside risks include a quick resumption of public and private investments, and renewed relationship with the international community, which could provide additional financing.
11. The authorities agreed with staff’s macroeconomic projections. They stressed that parameters under the baseline scenario are quite similar to the ones in their own projections, which also suggest a substantial economic impact of the pandemic. They estimate a GDP growth rate of -1.9 percent in 2020.
Policy Issues and Discussions
A. Fiscal Policy
12. The impact of the pandemic translates into a significant fiscal financing gap. Based on preliminary information, staff and the authorities project the fiscal impact cost of the pandemic to be about 1.1 percent of GDP in 2020 (US$531 million), including revenue losses, the costs of the COVID-19 national response plan not covered directly by international partners, and a shortfall in the originally planned issuance of treasury bills (0.9, 0.2, and 0.1 percent of GDP, respectively, Text Table 3). The issuance of treasury bills up to April 1 was only 70 percent of amounts originally planned and is assumed to be zero in Q2 due to the disruption caused by COVID-19, reflecting both logistical challenges in setting up auctions and weaker demand. VAT collections are expected to marginally increase compared to 2019 (but would be much lower than anticipated under the SMP due to the projected fall in economic activity and imports), conditional upon the implementation of planned reforms later this year, stronger control at the borders, and the acquisition of ASYCUDA2 as part of the COVID-19 containment measures. At the same time, given spending pressures from the free education initiative and delays in revenue reforms, the authorities intend to contain spending to limit the projected financing gap in 2020 to the impact of the COVID- 19 and avoid an increase in the stock of advances from the central bank. To that effect, current spending excluding wages would fall by about 2 percent of GDP relative to 2019, supported by the reallocation of expenditures and a 30 percent cut in the operating budget of ministries and public institutions. This will not affect the budget contribution to vaccination programs, which will continue to be supported by the government.
Total Fiscal Impact of the COVID shock
Total Fiscal Impact of the COVID shock
| 2020 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| In billion of CF | In percent of GDP | ||
| Revenue loss | 749 | 0.9 | |
| Expenditure increase | 166 | 0.2 | |
| Treasury bills shortfall | 57 | 0.1 | |
| Total COVID impact | 972 | 1.1 | |
| Memorandum items: | |||
| Gross domestic product | 87,900 | ||
| Total COVID impact (million of US dollars) | 531 | ||
Total Fiscal Impact of the COVID shock
| 2020 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| In billion of CF | In percent of GDP | ||
| Revenue loss | 749 | 0.9 | |
| Expenditure increase | 166 | 0.2 | |
| Treasury bills shortfall | 57 | 0.1 | |
| Total COVID impact | 972 | 1.1 | |
| Memorandum items: | |||
| Gross domestic product | 87,900 | ||
| Total COVID impact (million of US dollars) | 531 | ||
13. Staff supports the authorities’ decision to accommodate the impact of the pandemic on the budget. Given the impending health crisis and the sizeable economic fallout, staff supports the relaxation of the fiscal stance. To that effect, access to 25 percent of DRC’s quota under a Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) would help reduce the 2020 fiscal financing gap by 0.8 percent of GDP. Stepped up support from other development partners, including the World Bank, would help fill the residual gap. If the crisis and its economic fallout worsen further, additional relaxation could be envisaged given the availability of suitable financing. Staff plans to continue discussions on the timeline of the appropriate fiscal adjustment path to address specific shocks in the context of the forthcoming SMP review. The authorities should also speed up the development of e-procedures such as mobile tax, e-filling and e-payment. Staff highlighted the need to closely monitor and manage very scarce resources. To that effect, the authorities committed to produce a revised 2020 treasury plan reflecting the expected impact of the pandemic and the additional resources from development partners and to publish budget execution figures contained in the treasury plan on a monthly basis to enhance financial transparency, including in the use of RCF funds. The authorities have committed to publish online all COVID-19 related procurement contracts that exceed a certain value (and disclose beneficial ownership information for the contracts exceeding US$1 million), and will undertake and publish an internal monthly audit and a specific audit of COVID-19 related expenditures as part of the annual control of the Audit Court (LOI). To promote resource revenue transparency, measures are being taken to ensure continuous and smooth operation of the national EITI. At a broader level, a decree establishing an anti-corruption agency and the authorities’ commitment for publication and implementation of an anti-corruption action plan based on ongoing governance and safeguards assessments are welcome signals of the fight against corruption.
14. DRC debt is assessed to remain sustainable with a moderate risk of debt distress under the pandemic shock (Annex I)3. The previous Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA), which was updated in December 2019 jointly with the World Bank, suggested a moderate risk of debt distress for both external and overall public debt. That analysis critically hinged on the authorities’ commitment to sustained increases in domestic revenue mobilization to create space for much needed investment in human and physical capital over the medium-term. A customized stress test to the most recent DSA, to approximate the impact of the pandemic on the Congolese economy, suggests that DRC remains at a moderate risk of debt distress even under the significantly more negative outlook. The country is current on its external obligations and is not running any external arrears as of end-March.
15. The authorities are committed to raising additional resources to close the residual fiscal gap. They noted that the proposed relaxation of the fiscal stance will still imply a sizable (across the board) adjustment in discretionary spending, a practice adopted in previous crises. They continue to engage with development partners to increase their commitments to DRC’s COVID-19 response plan and established a special fund to collect tax-deductible contributions from the private sector. The authorities intend also to request transfers from unused revenue of extrabudgetary funds to the central government’s budget and to review the composition of expenditures to reallocate resources to priority sectors.
B. Monetary, Financial and Exchange Rate Policies
16. The Banque Centrale du Congo (BCC) has announced some liquidity support measures aimed at mitigating the economic impact of the pandemic. The BCC has reduced the policy rate by 150 basis points to 7.5 percent and has eliminated the reserve requirements on sight deposits in local currency (2 percent previously). It has also established a new collateralized long-term funding facility for commercial banks of up to 24 months and a limit of US$50 million to support the provision of new credit for the import and production of food and other basic goods.
17. The BCC has also approved temporary measures to reduce the regulatory burden in the banking sector, sustain economic activity, and contain the propagation of the virus. The mandatory adoption of new capital requirement regulations by local banks has been postponed to January 2022. The BCC has also frozen the loan classification rules (which will allow to reduce penalties and fees for non-performing loans) and to exceptionally allow banks to restructure outstanding loans of affected borrowers. To contain the propagation of the virus, the BCC is fostering the disinfection of bank notes and has adopted measures to promote and foster the use of digital payment technologies and existing payment platforms.
18. While supporting the BCC’s measures to date, staff called on the BCC to continue preserving macroeconomic stability. The BCC should continue to focus on maintaining price stability and use new monetary policy instruments and tighten monetary policy as needed to increase its effectiveness and control inflation. Heightened uncertainty and potential pressures on the exchange rate driven by depressed foreign direct investment and reduced FX bank deposits underscore the critical need to allow flexibility of the exchange rate as a shock absorber and build an adequate level of international reserves. Recognizing the risks, the authorities have agreed to limit foreign exchange market interventions given the very low level of foreign reserves, and to stop government financing by the BCC in order to protect international reserves. The BCC should consider scheduled, small-scaled and transparent BCC FX auctions to build FX reserves.
19. Although the financial system appears to be broadly healthy at this time, it is essential that the BCC continues maintaining a stable and solid financial system. It is imperative that financial institutions continue to comply with internationally agreed supervisory standards that help protect the interest of depositors and preserve financial stability. In particular, staff urged the BCC to continue using accurate loan classification rules and measuring NPLs and potential losses as precisely as possible. If necessary, the BCC could give more time to banks to comply with prudential requirements, while strengthening the monitoring of assets quality. The BCC should also reinforce its lender of last resort practices to commercial banks by enforcing a strict and transparent collateral framework for its refinancing operations.
Access and Capacity to Repay
A. Access Level and Modalities
20. Within the 12-month window, the authorities are requesting a second disbursement under the RCF in an amount equivalent to 25 percent of quota (SDR 266.5 million or about USD364.1 million).The first RCF of 25 percent of quota was disbursed in December 2019 to meet urgent balance of payments needs. The authorities are requesting a second disbursement under the RCF to respond to a sudden and exogenous shock as they are unable to implement a UCT-quality program at this juncture. They are also requesting that this financing be made available in its entirety as budget support. The disbursement would provide timely support to allow reprioritizing spending towards imported medical supplies. The balance of payments needs that necessitated the RCF request are caused primarily by a sudden exogenous shock and expected to resolve within the next 12–18 months without major policy adjustments. A memorandum of understanding will be signed between the Ministry of Finance and the BCC to ensure the transfer of funds and the appropriate repayments modalities of the loan.
B. Capacity to Repay and Safeguards Assessment
21. The DRC’s capacity to repay its obligations to the Fund is adequate (Table 6). The total amount of outstanding credit from the Fund at the end-2020, once the RCF is disbursed, will amount to 50.9 percent of quota. The associated servicing risks are mitigated by the country’s moderate level of indebtedness and the availability of concessional financing. Given that the financing under the RCF will be used in its entirety to provide budget support, the disbursement will be made into a monitored account of the BCC at the BIS and the authorities have prepared a framework agreement between the government of DRC and BCC on their respective roles and responsibilities for servicing financial obligations to the Fund. Total obligations to the Fund will peak in 2026–29, reaching at most 0.8 percent of exports of goods and services, 0.2 percent of GDP, and up to 3.0 percent of gross international reserves.
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2018–22
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2018–22
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prel. | Proj. | SMP | Proj. | Projections | ||||||
| (Annual percentage change, unless otherwise indicated) | ||||||||||
| GDP and prices | ||||||||||
| Real GDP | 5.8 | 4.4 | 3.2 | -2.2 | 3.5 | 4.5 | ||||
| Extractive GDP | 16.9 | 1.0 | -2.4 | -5.3 | 3.5 | 4.3 | ||||
| Non-Extractive GDP | 1.9 | 5.7 | 5.4 | -1.1 | 3.6 | 4.5 | ||||
| GDP deflator | 29.8 | 3.0 | 5.7 | 9.3 | 10.4 | 6.8 | ||||
| Consumer prices, period average | 29.3 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 11.0 | 10.5 | 7.0 | ||||
| Consumer prices, end of period | 7.2 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 6.5 | ||||
| External sector | ||||||||||
| Exports, f.o.b. (U.S. dollars) | 38.3 | -19.5 | -5.4 | -17.8 | 5.5 | 16.0 | ||||
| Imports, f.o.b. (U.S. dollars) | 32.0 | -15.6 | 0.1 | -12.0 | 2.0 | 11.6 | ||||
| Exports volume | 22.2 | -2.5 | -5.4 | -7.2 | 3.6 | 18.8 | ||||
| Import volume | 29.8 | -15.1 | -0.3 | -5.3 | 2.0 | 10.0 | ||||
| Terms of trade | 7.1 | -10.0 | -1.2 | -6.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | ||||
| (Annual change in percent of beginning-of-period broad money) | ||||||||||
| Money and credit | ||||||||||
| Net foreign assets | 9.6 | 14.1 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 11.8 | 7.4 | ||||
| Net domestic assets | 20.8 | 15.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 5.4 | 4.3 | ||||
| Domestic credit | 18.5 | 16.7 | 0.3 | 3.6 | 6.9 | 5.2 | ||||
| Of which: net credit to government | 1.4 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.4 | ||||
| credit to the private sector | 20.3 | 6.7 | -2.9 | 1.9 | 5.1 | 3.8 | ||||
| Broad money | 30.1 | 28.9 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 17.3 | 11.6 | ||||
| (Percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated) | ||||||||||
| Central government finance | ||||||||||
| Revenue and grants | 11.1 | 10.9 | 12.7 | 11.2 | 13.4 | 14.1 | ||||
| Revenue | 10.0 | 10.1 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 10.1 | 10.9 | ||||
| Grants | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 3.3 | 3.2 | ||||
| Expenditures | 11.1 | 12.9 | 13.3 | 12.3 | 13.7 | 14.2 | ||||
| Overall fiscal balance (commitment basis) | 0.0 | -2.1 | -0.6 | -1.2 | -0.3 | -0.1 | ||||
| Non-natural resource overall fiscal balance | -3.2 | -4.1 | -2.7 | -3.0 | -3.8 | -4.1 | ||||
| Investment and saving | ||||||||||
| Gross national saving | 8.1 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 9.3 | 10.9 | ||||
| Government | -1.0 | -4.1 | -1.3 | -2.2 | -2.7 | -2.1 | ||||
| Non-government | 9.1 | 12.5 | 10.6 | 8.3 | 12.0 | 12.9 | ||||
| Investment | 11.7 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 11.3 | 12.9 | 14.0 | ||||
| Government | 1.7 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 3.4 | ||||
| Non-government | 10.0 | 10.4 | 10.5 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 10.6 | ||||
| Balance of payments | ||||||||||
| Exports of goods and services | 34.1 | 26.1 | 23.5 | 22.3 | 22.6 | 24.8 | ||||
| Imports of goods and services | 37.7 | 29.9 | 26.9 | 27.3 | 26.9 | 28.3 | ||||
| Current account balance, incl. transfers | -3.5 | -4.2 | -4.3 | -5.4 | -4.0 | -3.7 | ||||
| Current account balance, excl. transfers | -5.2 | -4.5 | -5.6 | -6.5 | -6.9 | -6.3 | ||||
| Overall balance | 0.5 | -1.1 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Gross official reserves (millions of U.S. dollars) | 633 | 934 | 1,078 | 765 | 1,053 | 1,524 | ||||
| Gross official reserves (weeks of imports) | 2.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 5.9 | ||||
| (Percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated) | ||||||||||
| External public debt | ||||||||||
| Total stock, including IMF | 13.7 | 14.4 | 13.8 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 12.1 | ||||
| Scheduled debt service (millions of U.S. dollars) | 224 | 637 | 632 | 710 | 757 | 750 | ||||
| Percent of exports of goods and services | 1.4 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 5.7 | ||||
| Percent of government revenue | 4.8 | 12.7 | 10.6 | 15.1 | 15.0 | 13.0 | ||||
| Exchange rate (CDF per U.S. dollars) | ||||||||||
| Period average | 1,624 | … | … | … | … | … | ||||
| End-of-period | 1,636 | … | … | … | … | … | ||||
| Memorandum items: | ||||||||||
| Nominal GDP (billions of CDF) | 76,496 | 82,238 | 89,806 | 87,900 | 100,466 | 112,142 | ||||
| Nominal GDP (millions of U.S. dollars) | 47,099 | 49,841 | 52,591 | 47,993 | 50,095 | 52,952 | ||||
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2018–22
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prel. | Proj. | SMP | Proj. | Projections | ||||||
| (Annual percentage change, unless otherwise indicated) | ||||||||||
| GDP and prices | ||||||||||
| Real GDP | 5.8 | 4.4 | 3.2 | -2.2 | 3.5 | 4.5 | ||||
| Extractive GDP | 16.9 | 1.0 | -2.4 | -5.3 | 3.5 | 4.3 | ||||
| Non-Extractive GDP | 1.9 | 5.7 | 5.4 | -1.1 | 3.6 | 4.5 | ||||
| GDP deflator | 29.8 | 3.0 | 5.7 | 9.3 | 10.4 | 6.8 | ||||
| Consumer prices, period average | 29.3 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 11.0 | 10.5 | 7.0 | ||||
| Consumer prices, end of period | 7.2 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 6.5 | ||||
| External sector | ||||||||||
| Exports, f.o.b. (U.S. dollars) | 38.3 | -19.5 | -5.4 | -17.8 | 5.5 | 16.0 | ||||
| Imports, f.o.b. (U.S. dollars) | 32.0 | -15.6 | 0.1 | -12.0 | 2.0 | 11.6 | ||||
| Exports volume | 22.2 | -2.5 | -5.4 | -7.2 | 3.6 | 18.8 | ||||
| Import volume | 29.8 | -15.1 | -0.3 | -5.3 | 2.0 | 10.0 | ||||
| Terms of trade | 7.1 | -10.0 | -1.2 | -6.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | ||||
| (Annual change in percent of beginning-of-period broad money) | ||||||||||
| Money and credit | ||||||||||
| Net foreign assets | 9.6 | 14.1 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 11.8 | 7.4 | ||||
| Net domestic assets | 20.8 | 15.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 5.4 | 4.3 | ||||
| Domestic credit | 18.5 | 16.7 | 0.3 | 3.6 | 6.9 | 5.2 | ||||
| Of which: net credit to government | 1.4 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.4 | ||||
| credit to the private sector | 20.3 | 6.7 | -2.9 | 1.9 | 5.1 | 3.8 | ||||
| Broad money | 30.1 | 28.9 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 17.3 | 11.6 | ||||
| (Percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated) | ||||||||||
| Central government finance | ||||||||||
| Revenue and grants | 11.1 | 10.9 | 12.7 | 11.2 | 13.4 | 14.1 | ||||
| Revenue | 10.0 | 10.1 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 10.1 | 10.9 | ||||
| Grants | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 3.3 | 3.2 | ||||
| Expenditures | 11.1 | 12.9 | 13.3 | 12.3 | 13.7 | 14.2 | ||||
| Overall fiscal balance (commitment basis) | 0.0 | -2.1 | -0.6 | -1.2 | -0.3 | -0.1 | ||||
| Non-natural resource overall fiscal balance | -3.2 | -4.1 | -2.7 | -3.0 | -3.8 | -4.1 | ||||
| Investment and saving | ||||||||||
| Gross national saving | 8.1 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 9.3 | 10.9 | ||||
| Government | -1.0 | -4.1 | -1.3 | -2.2 | -2.7 | -2.1 | ||||
| Non-government | 9.1 | 12.5 | 10.6 | 8.3 | 12.0 | 12.9 | ||||
| Investment | 11.7 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 11.3 | 12.9 | 14.0 | ||||
| Government | 1.7 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 3.4 | ||||
| Non-government | 10.0 | 10.4 | 10.5 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 10.6 | ||||
| Balance of payments | ||||||||||
| Exports of goods and services | 34.1 | 26.1 | 23.5 | 22.3 | 22.6 | 24.8 | ||||
| Imports of goods and services | 37.7 | 29.9 | 26.9 | 27.3 | 26.9 | 28.3 | ||||
| Current account balance, incl. transfers | -3.5 | -4.2 | -4.3 | -5.4 | -4.0 | -3.7 | ||||
| Current account balance, excl. transfers | -5.2 | -4.5 | -5.6 | -6.5 | -6.9 | -6.3 | ||||
| Overall balance | 0.5 | -1.1 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Gross official reserves (millions of U.S. dollars) | 633 | 934 | 1,078 | 765 | 1,053 | 1,524 | ||||
| Gross official reserves (weeks of imports) | 2.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 5.9 | ||||
| (Percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated) | ||||||||||
| External public debt | ||||||||||
| Total stock, including IMF | 13.7 | 14.4 | 13.8 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 12.1 | ||||
| Scheduled debt service (millions of U.S. dollars) | 224 | 637 | 632 | 710 | 757 | 750 | ||||
| Percent of exports of goods and services | 1.4 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 5.7 | ||||
| Percent of government revenue | 4.8 | 12.7 | 10.6 | 15.1 | 15.0 | 13.0 | ||||
| Exchange rate (CDF per U.S. dollars) | ||||||||||
| Period average | 1,624 | … | … | … | … | … | ||||
| End-of-period | 1,636 | … | … | … | … | … | ||||
| Memorandum items: | ||||||||||
| Nominal GDP (billions of CDF) | 76,496 | 82,238 | 89,806 | 87,900 | 100,466 | 112,142 | ||||
| Nominal GDP (millions of U.S. dollars) | 47,099 | 49,841 | 52,591 | 47,993 | 50,095 | 52,952 | ||||
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Central Government Financial Operations, 2017–2020
(Billions of CDF)
Mainly expenditure related to security and elections.
Unpaid VAT credit reimbursements and other arrears (cumulative).
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Central Government Financial Operations, 2017–2020
(Billions of CDF)
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Act. | Prel. | Proj. | SMP | year proj. | ||||||
| (Billions of CDF, unless otherwise indicated) | ||||||||||
| Revenue and grants | 6,538 | 8,484 | 8,935 | 11,409 | 9,811 | |||||
| Revenue 1/ | 5,443 | 7,633 | 8,295 | 10,189 | 8,585 | |||||
| Tax revenue | 4,284 | 5,673 | 5,683 | 7,028 | 5,957 | |||||
| Income tax | 1,584 | 2,762 | 2,652 | 3,060 | 2,270 | |||||
| Individuals | 330 | 1,015 | 853 | 1,810 | 1,261 | |||||
| Businesses | 1195 | 1582 | 1679 | 1,087 | 845 | |||||
| Other unallocable taxes on income, profits, and capital gains | 59 | 165 | 120 | 163 | 163 | |||||
| Taxes on goods and services | 1,631 | 2,333 | 2,352 | 2,979 | 2,828 | |||||
| Value-added tax/Turnover tax | 1,238 | 1,706 | 1,827 | 2,595 | 2,437 | |||||
| Excises | 393 | 627 | 526 | 384 | 391 | |||||
| Taxes on international trade and transactions | 1,070 | 578 | 678 | 989 | 860 | |||||
| Non-tax revenue | 1,159 | 1,960 | 2,053 | 3,161 | 2,628 | |||||
| Revenue from natural resources and telecommunications | 346 | 903 | 918 | 1,173 | 859 | |||||
| Mining royalties | 75 | 389 | 406 | 277 | 243 | |||||
| Oil royalty and rent | 103 | 240 | 174 | 257 | 128 | |||||
| Telecommunications | 114 | 188 | 267 | 435 | 351 | |||||
| Dividents from state-owned enterprises | 54 | 86 | 71 | 203 | 136 | |||||
| Fees from sectoral ministries | 407 | 471 | 271 | 584 | 390 | |||||
| Special accounts and budgets | 404 | 516 | 782 | 1,292 | 1,292 | |||||
| Grants | 1,095 | 851 | 640 | 1,220 | 1,225 | |||||
| Project | 1,050 | 851 | 640 | 921 | 987 | |||||
| Budget support | 45 | 0 | 0 | 299 | 238 | |||||
| Expenditure | 5,783 | 8,521 | 10,622 | 11,915 | 10,835 | |||||
| Current expenditure | 4,080 | 6,041 | 8,677 | 9,057 | 8,561 | |||||
| Wages | 2,084 | 2,705 | 3,574 | 4,392 | 4,912 | |||||
| Interest due | 152 | 322 | 307 | 350 | 482 | |||||
| External | 32 | 39 | 145 | 24 | 155 | |||||
| Domestic | 120 | 283 | 162 | 327 | 327 | |||||
| Goods and services | 954 | 1,621 | 1,657 | 1,783 | 1,152 | |||||
| Subsidies and other current transfers | 890 | 1,394 | 3,138 | 2,532 | 2,015 | |||||
| Subsidies (incl. VAT reimbursements) | 360 | 704 | 2,205 | 1,037 | 622 | |||||
| Transfers to other levels of national government | 126 | 174 | 151 | 204 | 102 | |||||
| Special accounts and budgets | 404 | 516 | 782 | 1,292 | 1,292 | |||||
| Capital expenditure | 1,301 | 1,288 | 1,798 | 2,707 | 2,123 | |||||
| Foreign-financed | 1,071 | 872 | 1,011 | 1,479 | 1,543 | |||||
| Domestically-financed | 230 | 416 | 787 | 1,229 | 580 | |||||
| Exceptional expenditure1 | 402 | 1,191 | 147 | 151 | 151 | |||||
| Overall fiscal balance (commitment basis) | 754 | -37 | -1,687 | -506 | -1,024 | |||||
| Change in domestic arrears (repayment = – ) | 44 | 97 | 587 | 0 | -121 | |||||
| Domestic fiscal balance (cash basis) | 807 | 121 | -583 | -224 | -673 | |||||
| Overall fiscal balance (cash basis) | 798 | 60 | -1,100 | -506 | -1,146 | |||||
| Errors and omissions | -523 | 136 | 94 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| Financing | -276 | -196 | 966 | 506 | 1,146 | |||||
| Domestic financing (banking system) | 4 | 108 | 1,030 | 350 | 212 | |||||
| Foreign financing | -279 | -303 | -64 | 156 | 934 | |||||
| Budget loans | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 901 | |||||
| Project loans | 21 | 21 | 372 | 557 | 556 | |||||
| Amortization of external debt | -301 | -325 | -435 | -401 | -523 | |||||
| Memorandum items: | ||||||||||
| Gross domestic product (billions of CDF) | 55,676 | 76,496 | 82,238 | 89,806 | 87,900 | |||||
| Gross domestic product (millions of U.S. dollars) | 37,615 | 47,099 | 49,841 | 52,591 | 47,993 | |||||
| Unpaid cumulative domestic financial obligations 2 | 5303 | 5400 | 4817 | 4,649 | 4651 | |||||
Mainly expenditure related to security and elections.
Unpaid VAT credit reimbursements and other arrears (cumulative).
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Central Government Financial Operations, 2017–2020
(Billions of CDF)
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Act. | Prel. | Proj. | SMP | year proj. | ||||||
| (Billions of CDF, unless otherwise indicated) | ||||||||||
| Revenue and grants | 6,538 | 8,484 | 8,935 | 11,409 | 9,811 | |||||
| Revenue 1/ | 5,443 | 7,633 | 8,295 | 10,189 | 8,585 | |||||
| Tax revenue | 4,284 | 5,673 | 5,683 | 7,028 | 5,957 | |||||
| Income tax | 1,584 | 2,762 | 2,652 | 3,060 | 2,270 | |||||
| Individuals | 330 | 1,015 | 853 | 1,810 | 1,261 | |||||
| Businesses | 1195 | 1582 | 1679 | 1,087 | 845 | |||||
| Other unallocable taxes on income, profits, and capital gains | 59 | 165 | 120 | 163 | 163 | |||||
| Taxes on goods and services | 1,631 | 2,333 | 2,352 | 2,979 | 2,828 | |||||
| Value-added tax/Turnover tax | 1,238 | 1,706 | 1,827 | 2,595 | 2,437 | |||||
| Excises | 393 | 627 | 526 | 384 | 391 | |||||
| Taxes on international trade and transactions | 1,070 | 578 | 678 | 989 | 860 | |||||
| Non-tax revenue | 1,159 | 1,960 | 2,053 | 3,161 | 2,628 | |||||
| Revenue from natural resources and telecommunications | 346 | 903 | 918 | 1,173 | 859 | |||||
| Mining royalties | 75 | 389 | 406 | 277 | 243 | |||||
| Oil royalty and rent | 103 | 240 | 174 | 257 | 128 | |||||
| Telecommunications | 114 | 188 | 267 | 435 | 351 | |||||
| Dividents from state-owned enterprises | 54 | 86 | 71 | 203 | 136 | |||||
| Fees from sectoral ministries | 407 | 471 | 271 | 584 | 390 | |||||
| Special accounts and budgets | 404 | 516 | 782 | 1,292 | 1,292 | |||||
| Grants | 1,095 | 851 | 640 | 1,220 | 1,225 | |||||
| Project | 1,050 | 851 | 640 | 921 | 987 | |||||
| Budget support | 45 | 0 | 0 | 299 | 238 | |||||
| Expenditure | 5,783 | 8,521 | 10,622 | 11,915 | 10,835 | |||||
| Current expenditure | 4,080 | 6,041 | 8,677 | 9,057 | 8,561 | |||||
| Wages | 2,084 | 2,705 | 3,574 | 4,392 | 4,912 | |||||
| Interest due | 152 | 322 | 307 | 350 | 482 | |||||
| External | 32 | 39 | 145 | 24 | 155 | |||||
| Domestic | 120 | 283 | 162 | 327 | 327 | |||||
| Goods and services | 954 | 1,621 | 1,657 | 1,783 | 1,152 | |||||
| Subsidies and other current transfers | 890 | 1,394 | 3,138 | 2,532 | 2,015 | |||||
| Subsidies (incl. VAT reimbursements) | 360 | 704 | 2,205 | 1,037 | 622 | |||||
| Transfers to other levels of national government | 126 | 174 | 151 | 204 | 102 | |||||
| Special accounts and budgets | 404 | 516 | 782 | 1,292 | 1,292 | |||||
| Capital expenditure | 1,301 | 1,288 | 1,798 | 2,707 | 2,123 | |||||
| Foreign-financed | 1,071 | 872 | 1,011 | 1,479 | 1,543 | |||||
| Domestically-financed | 230 | 416 | 787 | 1,229 | 580 | |||||
| Exceptional expenditure1 | 402 | 1,191 | 147 | 151 | 151 | |||||
| Overall fiscal balance (commitment basis) | 754 | -37 | -1,687 | -506 | -1,024 | |||||
| Change in domestic arrears (repayment = – ) | 44 | 97 | 587 | 0 | -121 | |||||
| Domestic fiscal balance (cash basis) | 807 | 121 | -583 | -224 | -673 | |||||
| Overall fiscal balance (cash basis) | 798 | 60 | -1,100 | -506 | -1,146 | |||||
| Errors and omissions | -523 | 136 | 94 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| Financing | -276 | -196 | 966 | 506 | 1,146 | |||||
| Domestic financing (banking system) | 4 | 108 | 1,030 | 350 | 212 | |||||
| Foreign financing | -279 | -303 | -64 | 156 | 934 | |||||
| Budget loans | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 901 | |||||
| Project loans | 21 | 21 | 372 | 557 | 556 | |||||
| Amortization of external debt | -301 | -325 | -435 | -401 | -523 | |||||
| Memorandum items: | ||||||||||
| Gross domestic product (billions of CDF) | 55,676 | 76,496 | 82,238 | 89,806 | 87,900 | |||||
| Gross domestic product (millions of U.S. dollars) | 37,615 | 47,099 | 49,841 | 52,591 | 47,993 | |||||
| Unpaid cumulative domestic financial obligations 2 | 5303 | 5400 | 4817 | 4,649 | 4651 | |||||
Mainly expenditure related to security and elections.
Unpaid VAT credit reimbursements and other arrears (cumulative).
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Central Government Financial Operations, 2017–2020
(Percent of GDP)
Include compensation for 2019.
Unpaid VAT credit reimbursements and other arrears (cumulative).
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Central Government Financial Operations, 2017–2020
(Percent of GDP)
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Act. | Prel. | Proj. | SMP | year proj. | |||||
| (Percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated) | |||||||||
| Revenue and grants | 11.7 | 11.1 | 10.9 | 12.7 | 11.2 | ||||
| Revenue | 9.8 | 10.0 | 10.1 | 11.3 | 9.8 | ||||
| Tax revenue | 7.7 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 6.8 | ||||
| Income tax | 2.8 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 2.6 | ||||
| Individuals | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | ||||
| Businesses | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | ||||
| Other unallocable taxes on income, profits, and capital gains | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | ||||
| Taxes on goods and services | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.2 | ||||
| Value-added tax/Turnover tax | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.8 | ||||
| Excises | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.4 | ||||
| Taxes on international trade and transactions | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.0 | ||||
| Non-tax revenue | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 3.0 | ||||
| Revenue from natural resources and telecommunications | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | ||||
| Mining royalties | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | ||||
| Oil royalty and rent | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | ||||
| Telecommunications | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | ||||
| Dividents from state-owned enterprises | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | ||||
| Fees from sectoral ministries | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.4 | ||||
| Special accounts and budgets | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.5 | ||||
| Grants | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.4 | ||||
| Project | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.1 | ||||
| Budget support | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | ||||
| Expenditure | 10.4 | 11.1 | 12.9 | 13.3 | 12.3 | ||||
| Current expenditure | 7.3 | 7.9 | 10.6 | 10.1 | 9.7 | ||||
| Wages | 3.7 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 5.6 | ||||
| Interest due | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | ||||
| External | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | ||||
| Domestic | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | ||||
| Goods and services | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | ||||
| Subsidies and other current transfers | 1.6 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 2.3 | ||||
| Subsidies (incl. VAT reimbursements) | 0.6 | 0.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.7 | ||||
| Transfers to other levels of national government | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | ||||
| Special accounts and budgets | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.5 | ||||
| Capital expenditure | 2.3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.4 | ||||
| Foreign-financed | 1.9 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 | ||||
| Domestically-financed | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | ||||
| Exceptional expenditure 1 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | ||||
| Overall fiscal balance (commitment basis) | 1.4 | 0.0 | -2.1 | -0.6 | -1.2 | ||||
| Change in domestic arrears (repayment = – ) | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.0 | -0.1 | ||||
| Domestic fiscal balance (cash basis) | 1.4 | 0.2 | -0.7 | -0.2 | -0.8 | ||||
| Overall fiscal balance (cash basis) | 1.4 | 0.1 | -1.3 | -0.6 | -1.3 | ||||
| Errors and omissions | -0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Financing | -0.5 | -0.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 1.3 | ||||
| Domestic financing | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | ||||
| Foreign financing | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 1.1 | ||||
| Budget loans | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | ||||
| Project loans | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | ||||
| Amortization of external debt | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.6 | ||||
| Memorandum items: | |||||||||
| Gross domestic product (billions of CDF) | 55,676 | 76,496 | 82,238 | 89,806 | 87,900 | ||||
| Gross domestic product (millions of U.S. dollars) | 37,615 | 47,099 | 49,841 | 52,591 | 47,993 | ||||
| Unpaid cumulative domestic financial obligations 2 | 9.5 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 5 | 5.3 | ||||
Include compensation for 2019.
Unpaid VAT credit reimbursements and other arrears (cumulative).
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Central Government Financial Operations, 2017–2020
(Percent of GDP)
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Act. | Prel. | Proj. | SMP | year proj. | |||||
| (Percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated) | |||||||||
| Revenue and grants | 11.7 | 11.1 | 10.9 | 12.7 | 11.2 | ||||
| Revenue | 9.8 | 10.0 | 10.1 | 11.3 | 9.8 | ||||
| Tax revenue | 7.7 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 6.8 | ||||
| Income tax | 2.8 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 2.6 | ||||
| Individuals | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | ||||
| Businesses | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | ||||
| Other unallocable taxes on income, profits, and capital gains | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | ||||
| Taxes on goods and services | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.2 | ||||
| Value-added tax/Turnover tax | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.8 | ||||
| Excises | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.4 | ||||
| Taxes on international trade and transactions | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.0 | ||||
| Non-tax revenue | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 3.0 | ||||
| Revenue from natural resources and telecommunications | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | ||||
| Mining royalties | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | ||||
| Oil royalty and rent | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | ||||
| Telecommunications | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | ||||
| Dividents from state-owned enterprises | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | ||||
| Fees from sectoral ministries | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.4 | ||||
| Special accounts and budgets | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.5 | ||||
| Grants | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.4 | ||||
| Project | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.1 | ||||
| Budget support | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | ||||
| Expenditure | 10.4 | 11.1 | 12.9 | 13.3 | 12.3 | ||||
| Current expenditure | 7.3 | 7.9 | 10.6 | 10.1 | 9.7 | ||||
| Wages | 3.7 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 5.6 | ||||
| Interest due | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | ||||
| External | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | ||||
| Domestic | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | ||||
| Goods and services | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | ||||
| Subsidies and other current transfers | 1.6 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 2.3 | ||||
| Subsidies (incl. VAT reimbursements) | 0.6 | 0.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.7 | ||||
| Transfers to other levels of national government | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | ||||
| Special accounts and budgets | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.5 | ||||
| Capital expenditure | 2.3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.4 | ||||
| Foreign-financed | 1.9 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 | ||||
| Domestically-financed | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | ||||
| Exceptional expenditure 1 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | ||||
| Overall fiscal balance (commitment basis) | 1.4 | 0.0 | -2.1 | -0.6 | -1.2 | ||||
| Change in domestic arrears (repayment = – ) | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.0 | -0.1 | ||||
| Domestic fiscal balance (cash basis) | 1.4 | 0.2 | -0.7 | -0.2 | -0.8 | ||||
| Overall fiscal balance (cash basis) | 1.4 | 0.1 | -1.3 | -0.6 | -1.3 | ||||
| Errors and omissions | -0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Financing | -0.5 | -0.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 1.3 | ||||
| Domestic financing | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | ||||
| Foreign financing | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 1.1 | ||||
| Budget loans | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | ||||
| Project loans | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | ||||
| Amortization of external debt | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.6 | ||||
| Memorandum items: | |||||||||
| Gross domestic product (billions of CDF) | 55,676 | 76,496 | 82,238 | 89,806 | 87,900 | ||||
| Gross domestic product (millions of U.S. dollars) | 37,615 | 47,099 | 49,841 | 52,591 | 47,993 | ||||
| Unpaid cumulative domestic financial obligations 2 | 9.5 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 5 | 5.3 | ||||
Include compensation for 2019.
Unpaid VAT credit reimbursements and other arrears (cumulative).
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Monetary Survey, 2017–20
(Billions of CDF, unless otherwise indicated)
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Monetary Survey, 2017–20
(Billions of CDF, unless otherwise indicated)
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Act. | Prel. | Prel. | Proj. | ||||
| Central bank survey: | |||||||
| Net foreign assets | -562 | -348 | -342 | -359 | |||
| Claims on non-residents | 956 | 1,035 | 1,562 | 1,467 | |||
| Liabilities on non-residents | -1,518 | -1,383 | -1,905 | -1,826 | |||
| Net domestic assets | 2,551 | 2,831 | 3,382 | 3,530 | |||
| Net claims on the government | 360 | 593 | 1,140 | 1,140 | |||
| Claims on deposit money banks | 661 | 647 | 903 | 903 | |||
| Other items, net | 1,512 | 1,565 | 1,321 | 1,465 | |||
| Monetary base | 1,984 | 2,483 | 3,040 | 3,171 | |||
| Monetary survey: | |||||||
| Net foreign assets | 2,651 | 3,375 | 4,759 | 5,239 | |||
| Central bank | -562 | -348 | -342 | -359 | |||
| Commercial banks | 3,212 | 3,722 | 5,101 | 5,599 | |||
| Net domestic assets | 4,884 | 6,449 | 7,952 | 8,002 | |||
| Domestic credit | 3,266 | 4,664 | 6,296 | 6,753 | |||
| Net credit to government | 264 | 372 | 904 | 1,116 | |||
| Credit to the economy | 3,002 | 4,292 | 5,393 | 5,638 | |||
| Other items, net | 1,618 | 1,785 | 1,656 | 1,249 | |||
| Broad Money (M2) | 7,535 | 9,801 | 12,633 | 13,179 | |||
| Narrow Money (M1) | 1,966 | 2,382 | 2,802 | 3,120 | |||
| Currency in circulation | 1,355 | 1,560 | 1,773 | 1,981 | |||
| Demand deposits | 610 | 822 | 1,029 | 1,139 | |||
| Quasi money | 5,569 | 7,419 | 9,831 | 10,058 | |||
| Time deposits in domestic currency | 46 | 46 | 66 | 399 | |||
| Foreign currency deposits | 5,523 | 7,373 | 9,765 | 9,660 | |||
| (Annual percent change) | |||||||
| Net foreign assets | 138.4 | 27.3 | 41.0 | 10.1 | |||
| Net domestic assets | 17.3 | 32.0 | 23.3 | 0.6 | |||
| Domestic credit | 4.2 | 45.3 | 33.7 | 3.8 | |||
| Net credit to government | 1.4 | 40.7 | 143.1 | 23.4 | |||
| Credit to the private sector | 1.3 | 56.3 | 15.4 | 5.0 | |||
| Other items, net | 49.1 | 10.4 | -7.2 | -24.6 | |||
| Broad Money (M2) | 42.8 | 30.1 | 28.9 | 4.3 | |||
| (Annual percentage change of beginning-of-period broad money) | |||||||
| Net foreign assets | 29.2 | 9.6 | 14.1 | 3.8 | |||
| Net domestic assets | 13.6 | 20.8 | 15.3 | 0.4 | |||
| Domestic credit | 3.5 | 18.5 | 16.7 | 3.6 | |||
| Net credit to government | 0.1 | 1.4 | 5.4 | 1.7 | |||
| Credit to the private sector | 0.6 | 20.3 | 6.7 | 1.9 | |||
| Credit to parastatals | 0.1 | 1.4 | 5.4 | 1.7 | |||
| Other items, net | 10.1 | 2.2 | -1.3 | -3.2 | |||
| Broad money (M2) | 42.8 | 30.1 | 28.9 | 4.3 | |||
| Memorandum items: | |||||||
| Nominal GDP (billions of CDF) | 55,676 | 76,496 | 82,238 | 87,900 | |||
| Velocity (GDP/broad money) | 7.4 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 6.7 | |||
| Foreign currency deposits (percent of M2) | 73.3 | 75.2 | 77.3 | 73.3 | |||
| Foreign currency deposits (percent of total deposits) | 89.4 | 89.5 | 89.9 | 86.3 | |||
| Net domestic assets of the BCC (billions of CDF) | 2,551 | 2,831 | 3,382 | 3,530 | |||
| Base money (billions of CDF) | 1,984 | 2,483 | 3,040 | 3,171 | |||
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Monetary Survey, 2017–20
(Billions of CDF, unless otherwise indicated)
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Act. | Prel. | Prel. | Proj. | ||||
| Central bank survey: | |||||||
| Net foreign assets | -562 | -348 | -342 | -359 | |||
| Claims on non-residents | 956 | 1,035 | 1,562 | 1,467 | |||
| Liabilities on non-residents | -1,518 | -1,383 | -1,905 | -1,826 | |||
| Net domestic assets | 2,551 | 2,831 | 3,382 | 3,530 | |||
| Net claims on the government | 360 | 593 | 1,140 | 1,140 | |||
| Claims on deposit money banks | 661 | 647 | 903 | 903 | |||
| Other items, net | 1,512 | 1,565 | 1,321 | 1,465 | |||
| Monetary base | 1,984 | 2,483 | 3,040 | 3,171 | |||
| Monetary survey: | |||||||
| Net foreign assets | 2,651 | 3,375 | 4,759 | 5,239 | |||
| Central bank | -562 | -348 | -342 | -359 | |||
| Commercial banks | 3,212 | 3,722 | 5,101 | 5,599 | |||
| Net domestic assets | 4,884 | 6,449 | 7,952 | 8,002 | |||
| Domestic credit | 3,266 | 4,664 | 6,296 | 6,753 | |||
| Net credit to government | 264 | 372 | 904 | 1,116 | |||
| Credit to the economy | 3,002 | 4,292 | 5,393 | 5,638 | |||
| Other items, net | 1,618 | 1,785 | 1,656 | 1,249 | |||
| Broad Money (M2) | 7,535 | 9,801 | 12,633 | 13,179 | |||
| Narrow Money (M1) | 1,966 | 2,382 | 2,802 | 3,120 | |||
| Currency in circulation | 1,355 | 1,560 | 1,773 | 1,981 | |||
| Demand deposits | 610 | 822 | 1,029 | 1,139 | |||
| Quasi money | 5,569 | 7,419 | 9,831 | 10,058 | |||
| Time deposits in domestic currency | 46 | 46 | 66 | 399 | |||
| Foreign currency deposits | 5,523 | 7,373 | 9,765 | 9,660 | |||
| (Annual percent change) | |||||||
| Net foreign assets | 138.4 | 27.3 | 41.0 | 10.1 | |||
| Net domestic assets | 17.3 | 32.0 | 23.3 | 0.6 | |||
| Domestic credit | 4.2 | 45.3 | 33.7 | 3.8 | |||
| Net credit to government | 1.4 | 40.7 | 143.1 | 23.4 | |||
| Credit to the private sector | 1.3 | 56.3 | 15.4 | 5.0 | |||
| Other items, net | 49.1 | 10.4 | -7.2 | -24.6 | |||
| Broad Money (M2) | 42.8 | 30.1 | 28.9 | 4.3 | |||
| (Annual percentage change of beginning-of-period broad money) | |||||||
| Net foreign assets | 29.2 | 9.6 | 14.1 | 3.8 | |||
| Net domestic assets | 13.6 | 20.8 | 15.3 | 0.4 | |||
| Domestic credit | 3.5 | 18.5 | 16.7 | 3.6 | |||
| Net credit to government | 0.1 | 1.4 | 5.4 | 1.7 | |||
| Credit to the private sector | 0.6 | 20.3 | 6.7 | 1.9 | |||
| Credit to parastatals | 0.1 | 1.4 | 5.4 | 1.7 | |||
| Other items, net | 10.1 | 2.2 | -1.3 | -3.2 | |||
| Broad money (M2) | 42.8 | 30.1 | 28.9 | 4.3 | |||
| Memorandum items: | |||||||
| Nominal GDP (billions of CDF) | 55,676 | 76,496 | 82,238 | 87,900 | |||
| Velocity (GDP/broad money) | 7.4 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 6.7 | |||
| Foreign currency deposits (percent of M2) | 73.3 | 75.2 | 77.3 | 73.3 | |||
| Foreign currency deposits (percent of total deposits) | 89.4 | 89.5 | 89.9 | 86.3 | |||
| Net domestic assets of the BCC (billions of CDF) | 2,551 | 2,831 | 3,382 | 3,530 | |||
| Base money (billions of CDF) | 1,984 | 2,483 | 3,040 | 3,171 | |||
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Balance of Payments, 2017–20
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Balance of Payments, 2017–20
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Act. | Est. | Projections | ||||
| (Millions of US dollars, unless otherwise indicated) | ||||||
| Current Account Balance | -1,241 | -1,650 | -2,074 | -2,605 | ||
| Goods balance | 208 | 994 | 224 | -538 | ||
| Exports of Goods | 11,548 | 15,967 | 12,856 | 10,574 | ||
| Imports of Goods | 11,340 | 14,973 | 12,632 | 11,112 | ||
| Services balance | -1,615 | -2,687 | -2,118 | -1,842 | ||
| Primary income | -1,081 | -1,687 | -1,439 | -1,429 | ||
| Secondary income | 1,246 | 1,729 | 1,259 | 1,204 | ||
| Capital Account Balance | 465 | 437 | 147 | 520 | ||
| Net Lending(+)/Borrowing(-) | -776 | -1,213 | -1,927 | -2,086 | ||
| Financial Account Balance | -844 | -1,442 | -1,400 | -2,086 | ||
| Portfolio investment | 11 | 38 | 70 | 38 | ||
| Direct investment | -1,048 | -1,408 | -1,627 | -1,608 | ||
| Direct investment liabilities | 1,048 | 1,408 | 1,627 | 1,608 | ||
| Financial derivatives | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Other investment | 227 | -129 | -145 | -347 | ||
| Reserves Assets | -33 | 56 | 301 | -169 | ||
| Net Errors and Omission | -67 | -229 | 527 | 0 | ||
| (Percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated) | ||||||
| Current Account Balance | -3.3 | -3.5 | -4.2 | -5.4 | ||
| Goods balance | 0.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | -1.1 | ||
| Exports of Goods | 30.7 | 33.9 | 25.8 | 22.0 | ||
| Imports of Goods | 30.1 | 31.8 | 25.3 | 23.2 | ||
| Services balance | -4.3 | -5.7 | -4.2 | -3.8 | ||
| Primary income | -2.9 | -3.6 | -2.9 | -3.0 | ||
| Secondary income | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 2.5 | ||
| Capital Account Balance | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 1.1 | ||
| Net Lending(+)/Borrowing(-) | -2.1 | -2.6 | -3.9 | -4.3 | ||
| Financial Account Balance | -2.2 | -3.1 | -2.8 | -4.3 | ||
| Portfolio investment | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | ||
| Direct investment | -2.8 | -3.0 | -3.3 | -3.4 | ||
| Direct investment liabilities | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.4 | ||
| Financial derivatives | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Other investment | 0.6 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.7 | ||
| Reserves Assets | - 0. 1 | 0. 1 | 0. 6 | - 0. 4 | ||
| Net Errors and Omission | -0.2 | -0.5 | 1.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Memorandum Items: | ||||||
| Gross reserves | 600.7 | 632.8 | 933.9 | 765.3 | ||
| of which: IMF financing | 91.8 | 93.8 | -327.2 | -321.0 | ||
| Gross reserves (in weeks of non-aid related imports) | 1.9 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 3.6 | ||
| Nominal GDP (Million US Dollars) | 37,615.1 | 47,099.4 | 49,841.1 | 47,993.3 | ||
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Balance of Payments, 2017–20
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Act. | Est. | Projections | ||||
| (Millions of US dollars, unless otherwise indicated) | ||||||
| Current Account Balance | -1,241 | -1,650 | -2,074 | -2,605 | ||
| Goods balance | 208 | 994 | 224 | -538 | ||
| Exports of Goods | 11,548 | 15,967 | 12,856 | 10,574 | ||
| Imports of Goods | 11,340 | 14,973 | 12,632 | 11,112 | ||
| Services balance | -1,615 | -2,687 | -2,118 | -1,842 | ||
| Primary income | -1,081 | -1,687 | -1,439 | -1,429 | ||
| Secondary income | 1,246 | 1,729 | 1,259 | 1,204 | ||
| Capital Account Balance | 465 | 437 | 147 | 520 | ||
| Net Lending(+)/Borrowing(-) | -776 | -1,213 | -1,927 | -2,086 | ||
| Financial Account Balance | -844 | -1,442 | -1,400 | -2,086 | ||
| Portfolio investment | 11 | 38 | 70 | 38 | ||
| Direct investment | -1,048 | -1,408 | -1,627 | -1,608 | ||
| Direct investment liabilities | 1,048 | 1,408 | 1,627 | 1,608 | ||
| Financial derivatives | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Other investment | 227 | -129 | -145 | -347 | ||
| Reserves Assets | -33 | 56 | 301 | -169 | ||
| Net Errors and Omission | -67 | -229 | 527 | 0 | ||
| (Percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated) | ||||||
| Current Account Balance | -3.3 | -3.5 | -4.2 | -5.4 | ||
| Goods balance | 0.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | -1.1 | ||
| Exports of Goods | 30.7 | 33.9 | 25.8 | 22.0 | ||
| Imports of Goods | 30.1 | 31.8 | 25.3 | 23.2 | ||
| Services balance | -4.3 | -5.7 | -4.2 | -3.8 | ||
| Primary income | -2.9 | -3.6 | -2.9 | -3.0 | ||
| Secondary income | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 2.5 | ||
| Capital Account Balance | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 1.1 | ||
| Net Lending(+)/Borrowing(-) | -2.1 | -2.6 | -3.9 | -4.3 | ||
| Financial Account Balance | -2.2 | -3.1 | -2.8 | -4.3 | ||
| Portfolio investment | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | ||
| Direct investment | -2.8 | -3.0 | -3.3 | -3.4 | ||
| Direct investment liabilities | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.4 | ||
| Financial derivatives | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Other investment | 0.6 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.7 | ||
| Reserves Assets | - 0. 1 | 0. 1 | 0. 6 | - 0. 4 | ||
| Net Errors and Omission | -0.2 | -0.5 | 1.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Memorandum Items: | ||||||
| Gross reserves | 600.7 | 632.8 | 933.9 | 765.3 | ||
| of which: IMF financing | 91.8 | 93.8 | -327.2 | -321.0 | ||
| Gross reserves (in weeks of non-aid related imports) | 1.9 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 3.6 | ||
| Nominal GDP (Million US Dollars) | 37,615.1 | 47,099.4 | 49,841.1 | 47,993.3 | ||
Financial Soundness Indicators, September 2017–December2019
Financial Soundness Indicators, September 2017–December2019
| 2017 | 2018 | Mar-19 | Jun-19 | Sep-19 | Dec-19 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adequacy | |||||||
| Regulatory capital to risk-weighted assets | 16.0 | 13.7 | 13.9 | 13.8 | 13.9 | 14.1 | |
| Asset quality | |||||||
| NPLs to gross loans | 16.1 | 13.8 | 13.0 | 13.2 | 16.1 | 19.4 | |
| Earnings and profitability | |||||||
| Return on assets (net income/total assets) | -0.1 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.0 | |
| Interest margin to gross income | 35.4 | 35.5 | 40.1 | 38.4 | 38.7 | 38.0 | |
| Liquidity | |||||||
| Liquid assets/total deposits and short-term liabilities | 125.6 | 67.2 | 68.9 | 71.9 | 76.0 | 76.0 | |
| Sensitivity to market risk | |||||||
| Foreign currency-denominated loans to total loans | 93.7 | 90.0 | 92.7 | 91.8 | 91.5 | 90.3 | |
Financial Soundness Indicators, September 2017–December2019
| 2017 | 2018 | Mar-19 | Jun-19 | Sep-19 | Dec-19 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adequacy | |||||||
| Regulatory capital to risk-weighted assets | 16.0 | 13.7 | 13.9 | 13.8 | 13.9 | 14.1 | |
| Asset quality | |||||||
| NPLs to gross loans | 16.1 | 13.8 | 13.0 | 13.2 | 16.1 | 19.4 | |
| Earnings and profitability | |||||||
| Return on assets (net income/total assets) | -0.1 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.0 | |
| Interest margin to gross income | 35.4 | 35.5 | 40.1 | 38.4 | 38.7 | 38.0 | |
| Liquidity | |||||||
| Liquid assets/total deposits and short-term liabilities | 125.6 | 67.2 | 68.9 | 71.9 | 76.0 | 76.0 | |
| Sensitivity to market risk | |||||||
| Foreign currency-denominated loans to total loans | 93.7 | 90.0 | 92.7 | 91.8 | 91.5 | 90.3 | |
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Indicators of Capacity to Repay the Fund, 2020–30
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Indicators of Capacity to Repay the Fund, 2020–30
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total obligations on existing and prospective credit | |||||||||||||||
| Total obligations (In millions of SDRs) | 32.3 | 10.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 80.2 | 106.9 | 106.9 | 106.9 | 106.9 | 26.9 | ||||
| Principal | 29.7 | 9.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 80.0 | 106.6 | 106.6 | 106.6 | 106.6 | 26.7 | ||||
| Charges and interest 1 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | ||||
| Total obligations (In millions of U.S. dollars) | 44.7 | 14.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 112.7 | 150.1 | 150.1 | 150.1 | 150.1 | 37.8 | ||||
| In percent of exports of goods and services | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | ||||
| In percent of GDP | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | ||||
| In percent of quota | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.5 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 2.5 | ||||
| In percent of gross international reserves | 9.1 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | ||||
| Fund credit outstanding (end-period) | |||||||||||||||
| In millions of SDRs | 542.9 | 533.0 | 533.0 | 533.0 | 533.0 | 453.1 | 346.5 | 239.9 | 133.3 | 26.7 | 0.0 | ||||
| In millions of U.S. dollars | 751.8 | 740.7 | 743.1 | 744.9 | 747.4 | 637.5 | 487.5 | 337.5 | 187.5 | 37.5 | 0.0 | ||||
| In percent of exports of goods and services | 7.0 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | ||||
| In percent of GDP | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| In percent of quota | 50.9 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 42.5 | 32.5 | 22.5 | 12.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | ||||
| In percent of total external debt | 6.0 | 6.7 | 10.1 | 11.5 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 11.6 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| In percent of gross international reserves | 152.5 | 124.7 | 54.5 | 27.0 | 18.0 | 12.1 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.0 | ||||
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Indicators of Capacity to Repay the Fund, 2020–30
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total obligations on existing and prospective credit | |||||||||||||||
| Total obligations (In millions of SDRs) | 32.3 | 10.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 80.2 | 106.9 | 106.9 | 106.9 | 106.9 | 26.9 | ||||
| Principal | 29.7 | 9.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 80.0 | 106.6 | 106.6 | 106.6 | 106.6 | 26.7 | ||||
| Charges and interest 1 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | ||||
| Total obligations (In millions of U.S. dollars) | 44.7 | 14.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 112.7 | 150.1 | 150.1 | 150.1 | 150.1 | 37.8 | ||||
| In percent of exports of goods and services | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | ||||
| In percent of GDP | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | ||||
| In percent of quota | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.5 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 2.5 | ||||
| In percent of gross international reserves | 9.1 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | ||||
| Fund credit outstanding (end-period) | |||||||||||||||
| In millions of SDRs | 542.9 | 533.0 | 533.0 | 533.0 | 533.0 | 453.1 | 346.5 | 239.9 | 133.3 | 26.7 | 0.0 | ||||
| In millions of U.S. dollars | 751.8 | 740.7 | 743.1 | 744.9 | 747.4 | 637.5 | 487.5 | 337.5 | 187.5 | 37.5 | 0.0 | ||||
| In percent of exports of goods and services | 7.0 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | ||||
| In percent of GDP | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| In percent of quota | 50.9 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 42.5 | 32.5 | 22.5 | 12.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | ||||
| In percent of total external debt | 6.0 | 6.7 | 10.1 | 11.5 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 11.6 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| In percent of gross international reserves | 152.5 | 124.7 | 54.5 | 27.0 | 18.0 | 12.1 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.0 | ||||
22. The BCC has committed to undertaking reforms recommended by the recent Fund safeguards assessment mission. This would include a) governance reforms to strengthen the Board’s composition and audit committee structure in compliance with the 2018 Central Bank Law, which will reinforce the BCC’s autonomy; b) a stronger accountability framework to enhance ex-ante controls, risk management and monetary operations; c) more transparency through a systematic and prompt publication of audited reports and the implementation of an IFRS roadmap; and d) improving substantially the quality of data reported. To ensure satisfactory review of future performance under the SMP, it is crucial that the BCC provides accurate monetary data.4 In line with the safeguards assessment recommendations, the BCC also committed to have the key monetary data for the indicative targets at SMP test dates, as defined by the Technical Memorandum of Understanding (TMU), verified by the BCC external auditor by the time of the SMP reviews. Staff urged the BCC to concert all the efforts and commitment needed to address all these gaps.
Staff Appraisal
23. The DRC is experiencing a severe shock as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The short-term economic outlook has deteriorated quickly due to the fall of minerals’ prices and the slowdown in economic activity following the authorities’ decision to deploy a series of containment and mitigation measures.
24. Staff welcomes the authorities’ policy actions to contain and mitigate the spread and impact of the virus. Staff also supports the authorities’ timely economic policy adjustments, including the government’s decision to accommodate the fiscal shock and the BCC’s announced measures.
25. The authorities remain committed to medium-term fiscal and debt sustainability. The authorities are seeking concessional resources from development partners to address the substantial fiscal gap from sizable revenue losses and increased health-related spending, while safeguarding debt sustainability. A stress test replicating the impact of the pandemic on the Congolese economy suggests that the risk of debt distress remains moderate even under the significantly negative outlook.
26. Monetary policy should continue to closely follow inflation developments, while exchange rate movements should be allowed to absorb shocks. This would support strengthening of the nascent interest rate-based monetary policy framework. Despite the recent reduction in the policy rate to provide liquidity to the financial system, the BCC needs to be prepared to a tightening of monetary policy as inflationary pressures unfold and adopt a clear data-driven communication policy to manage market expectations. The BCC also needs to halt its financing of the government to allow it to protect its limited foreign reserves while containing money creation and its likely adverse effect on inflation. Foreign exchange market interventions should be avoided given the low level of reserves.
27. Against this background, staff supports the authorities’ request for a disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility in the amount of SDR 266.5 million (25 percent of quota). Staff’s support is based on the scale of the impact from the pandemic, the authorities’ existing and prospective policies to address this external shock, the urgent balance of payments need, and the authorities’ policy commitments to fiscal sustainability, all of which will act to mitigate risks.
Appendix I. Letter of Intent
Ms. Kristalina Georgieva
April 16, 2020
Managing Director
International Monetary Fund
Washington DC, USA
Madame Managing Director:
The COVID-19 pandemic poses a major health risk for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). As of April 9, 2020, 215 people are reported to have been infected and 20 have succumbed. The majority of cases are individuals who returned recently from trips abroad, but the number of community contaminations is creeping up rapidly, at a geometric rate while the one for the recovered at an arithmetic rate, which raises the fear of a rapid spread that could overwhelm the already limited national healthcare resources. High population density in urban areas, worrying sanitary conditions, and an already stretched health care system due to other deadly epidemics, are causes for concerns.
A COVID-19 response plan has been prepared. The pursued goal is to do everything possible to prevent a general epidemic. To the effect, the government has taken a first set of measures to thwart the progression of the pandemic including closing the borders, isolating the city of Kinshasa from the rest of the country and a lockdown of the administrative city of the Gombe, suspending teaching from schools and universities as well as banning gatherings of more than 20 persons. The response plan includes measures to (i) sensitize the population through various communication means; (ii) survey and track cases and contacts; (iii) upgrade hospitals; and (iv) acquire essential medical supplies. The cost of the mentioned plan is evaluated at USD135 million. At the same time, the government is committed to pay its financial counterpart contributions to the GAVI foundation f or the purchase of life-saving vaccines to protect millions of children against debilitating infectious diseases such as measle whose current outbreak is the largest in the world.
The COVID-19 pandemic is having a growing negative impact on the economy. To help protect the population, the government has decided to shut down large swaths of economic activity particularly the service industry, starting by restaurants and other places of gathering. The Congolese mining production and exports will decline due to disruptions to international supply chains, reduced global demand, and fall of commodity prices. All is done to try to avert a possible decision by the Zambian authorities to close their border with DRC to trade in Congolese minerals and the country faces a decision by South African authorities to temporarily close their ports to trade. Both decisions would cripple the mining exports of the DRC and worsen the economic impact of COVID-19 at a national level.
All these factors will lead to a sharp deceleration of economic growth, a spike in inflation, an increase in the fiscal deficit, a deterioration of the external current account deficit, and a weakening of international reserves which would put downward pressure on the exchange rate. Rising unemployment, which would result from it, could challenge social peace.
On fiscal policy, the government has tried to fulfill its SMP commitments despite increasing challenges. Under the SMP, the government has committed to reduce the fiscal deficit and eliminate central bank advances. The government’s objective was to increase revenue, better control expenditures, and issue T-bills to meet any financing gap. However, the COVID-19 has upended these plans as the decline in mining production and overall activity will lessen revenue and the placement of T-bills, while spending is increasing owing to our response plan. Still, the government remains committed to the spirit and the implementation of the SMP, in particular with the fiscal anchor of zero central bank advances to the government
The government will continue to implement reforms that could boost fiscal revenue mobilization, especially those linked to the VAT and the reinforcement of borders’ control, when the situation normalizes. Of course, after the SMP, we are still committed to transition to an Extended Credit Facility (ECF).
To compensate the revenue shortfall, we will request transfers from unused revenue of annex budgets and special funds to the central budget. In the context of reduced revenue, we commit to review the composition of our expenditures to reallocate resources to priority sectors such as health, basic goods supply, and the promotion of the local pharmacopoeia.
We propose to cut operating expenses of ministries and public institutions by 30 percent and to limit discretionary spending.
The Central Bank (BCC) has also taken measures to alleviate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy and the financial system:
- The BCC, while reaffirming its objective of maintaining general price level stability, decided a set of measures to support the economy. It reduced its policy rate by 150 base points to 7.5 percent. However, the BCC is ready to tighten monetary policy to maintain inflation under control if necessary. In the context of high international uncertainty and volatility of the foreign exchange market, allowing the flexibility of the exchange rate and building an adequate level of foreign exchange reserves is fundamental to absorb external shocks and preserve macro-financial stability. Aware of the risks, we have agreed to limit intervention on the foreign exchange market, given the very low level of our foreign exchange reserves. We also pledged to suspend the monetization of the public deficit by the Central Bank to protect foreign exchange reserves and reduce inflationary pressures.
- The BCC has also put in place measures to support financial sector. It opened a new collateralized long-term facility for commercial banks (up to 24 months) to support the import and production of food and basic goods, reduced the ratio of minimum reserves to demand deposits in local currency by 200 basis points (to 0 percent), and decided to postpone the reform minimum capital requirement and the relaxation of loan repayment terms. Although the financial system appears to be generally healthy at present, it is imperative that financial institutions continue to comply with international supervisory standards and that the banking supervisor adheres to a rigorous loan quality classification scheme. If necessary, the BCC could give banks more time to comply with prudential requirements in order to cope with a deterioration in the quality of their balance sheets. The BCC should also strengthen its collateral management during its refinancing operations with commercial banks to limit the risks on its own balance sheet.
In line with preliminary safeguards assessment recommendations, the BCC also commits to proceed to an audit of key monetary data for the indicative targets at SMP test dates, as defined by the Technical Memorandum of Understanding (TMU), verified by the BCC external auditor by the time of the SMP reviews.
To allow the DRC to face the consequences of the COVID-19 et close the financing gap, we request exceptional financial assistance under the RCF of SDR 266.5 million (25 percent of quota). This assistance will help cover the associated fiscal gap. The proper use of those resources will be guaranteed through the implementation of our public financial management legislation, but also through the publication of budget execution figures contained in the treasury plan on a monthly basis to enhance financial transparency. Moreover, we commit to publish online all COVID-19 related procurement contracts that exceed US$12,000 and, for the contracts exceeding USD 1 million, to disclose the beneficial ownership information of contracted companies. We will also undertake a monthly internal audit as well as a specific audit of COVID-19 related expenditures as part of the annual control of audit of the Audit Court, which should be published. To ensure resource revenue transparency and in line with commitments with the EIRI of which DRC is a member, a presidential ordinance will be signed confirming the appointment of the National EITI Coordinator approved by the Council of Ministers on March 13. In addition, the monthly payments of the operating allowance of the DRC EITI will resume to allow the resumption of its work. Furthermore, the government’s commitment to fight against corruption in DRC is shown by the recent issuance of a decree establishing an anti-corruption agency and also by the intention to publish and implement an anti-corruption action plan based on ongoing governance and safeguards assessments.
The World Bank has committed to provide financial support for the COVID-19 riposte plan and to mobilize an emergency DPO to help cover any remaining fiscal gap. Other donors, such as the European Union or the United States, have also committed financial assistance. The government will work with other partners to mobilize assistance to the private sector, as we anticipate that the lockdown will strain many businesses, putting them at risk of closing with dire consequences on employment.
We will ask that disbursements under the requested RCF be made into a BCC monitored account with the BIS, as recommended by the recent Safeguard assessment of the BCC. We commit to signing a MoU between the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance on their respective roles and responsibilities for the part servicing financial obligations to the Fund. We recognize the importance of safeguards concerns and attach great importance to mitigating the risk of corruption and ensuring that financial assistance received is used for its intended purposes. We do not intent to introduce measures or policies that would exacerbate balance of payments difficulties. Additionally, we do not intend to impose new restrictions on the making of payments and transfers for current international transactions, trade restrictions for balance of payments purposes, or multiple currency practices, or to enter into bilateral payments agreements which are inconsistent with Article VIII of the Fund’s Articles of Agreement.
Moreover, our capacity to repay the fund remains adequate. Including the disbursement under the presently requested RCF, repayment ratios to GDP and exports will remain manageable, peaking at 0.2 percent and 0.8 percent in 2026, respectively. Also, we will continue meeting our financial obligations to the IMF on a timely basis.
The government remains firmly committed to strengthen macroeconomic stability and lay the ground for rapid, sustained and inclusive growth. In this respect going forward, we will consult with Fund staff on any measures designed to further these goals. That said, we agree to the publication of this letter intent and of any other documents related to this request.
| /s/ | /s/ |
| Déogratias Mutombo Mwana Nyembo | Jose Sélé Yalaghuli |
| Governor of the Central Bank of Congo | Minister of Finance |
| /s/ | /s/ |
| Déogratias Mutombo Mwana Nyembo | Jose Sélé Yalaghuli |
| Governor of the Central Bank of Congo | Minister of Finance |
IMF Country Report No 19/285, Box 2.
The Automated System for Customs Data (ASYCUDA) is a computerized system designed by the UNCTAD to administer a country’s customs.
The DSA was reviewed and approved by the World Bank.
A formal review of the first and second test dates for the SMP is expected in the next weeks. Swift transfer records show that the BCC met the December 2019 RCF’s prior action by transferring abroad more than US$160 million.
