Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe: Request for Disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility—Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe
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Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Democratic Republic of S�o Tom� And Pr�ncipe

Abstract

Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Democratic Republic of S�o Tom� And Pr�ncipe

Context

1. São Tomé and Príncipe is a fragile, small, remote island state, with 67 percent of the population living in poverty. The economy relies heavily on external assistance and imports, including for staple foods. The main exports are cocoa and tourism. The capacity of the health care system is very weak. Social assistance institutions and credit facilities are limited, hindering well-targeted aid, especially for the large informal sector.

2. The new ECF-supported program launched in October 2019, with access of 90 percent of quota, was off to a good start. Preliminary data suggest that all end-December 2019 performance criteria (PC) targets were met, though progress on structural reforms was more mixed due to limited capacity. The benchmarks on adopting the VAT law, the campaign to explain the VAT to the public, and adjusting the fuel price in line with costs are met. The benchmark on reform of the public utility company, EMAE, is delayed due to extra time needed to complete relevant studies and hire consultants.

3. Prior to the pandemic, GDP growth was projected to recover in 2020 after a slowdown in 2019. GDP growth slowed to 1.3 percent in 2019 but was expected to pick up to 3.5 percent in 2020 (Table 1). The slowdown in 2019 reflected delays in externally financed projects during the transition to a new government. Strong fiscal consolidation measures reduced the domestic primary deficit (DPD) by 2.4 percent of GDP in 2019, which, together with higher budget support grants, helped raise gross international reserves (GIR) from 4 to 4.3 months of imports, compared with the IMF reserve adequacy metric for low-income countries of 3.8 months of imports. Credit to the economy by banks remained low, as they are saddled with a large number of legacy non-performing loans (25 percent of total loans) and the dysfunctional court system impedes loan collection. Provisions and capital adequacy for the system as a whole are adequate, but some small banks may need to be recapitalized by their private owners once recommendations from a recently completed Asset Quality Review are implemented.

Table 1.

São Tomé and Príncipe: Selected Economic Indicators, 2016–24

(Annual change in percent, unless otherwise indicated)

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Sources: São Tomé and Príncipe authorities’ data and IMF staff estimates and projections.

Central Bank (BCSTP) mid-point rate.

Excludes oil related revenues, grants, interest earned, scheduled interest payments, and foreign-financed capital outlay.

Total public and publicly guaranteed debt as defined in DSA, which includes EMAE’s debt to ENCO (and excludes the government’s arrears to EMAE due to consolidation).

Percent of exports of goods and nonfactor services.

Gross international reserves exclude the National Oil Account and commercial banks’ foreign currency deposits at the BCSTP in order to meet reserve requirements, for new licensing, and for meeting capital requirements.

Imports of goods and nonfactor services, excluding imports of investment goods and technical assistance.

4. São Tomé and Príncipe remains in debt distress due to long-standing external arrears, but public debt is deemed sustainable. The authorities have been discussing with Angola, Brazil, and Equatorial Guinea to regularize outstanding external arrears (2.6 percent of GDP) and are waiting for creditor countries’ responses. While the present value of total public and publicly guaranteed debt is currently above the high-risk benchmark, it can be deemed sustainable as it falls below the benchmark once the concessional terms of domestic debt to the oil-supplier, ENCO, are incorporated. Over the medium term, failing to continue fiscal consolidation or reform the large loss-making utility company, EMAE, could threaten debt sustainability (Annex I).

Impact of the Pandemic and Outlook

5. The COVID-19 pandemic is causing a sharp economic contraction, raising urgent and present balance of payments and fiscal financing needs (Text Figure 1 and Table 1). The fledgling tourism sector (with direct contribution to GDP of about 6–8 percent) has ground to a halt, externally-financed projects are delayed, and international supply is disrupted. A large fiscal need has emerged from an expected drop in fiscal revenue (1.5 percent of GDP) across all categories except oil imports and from increased health and social expenditures to mitigate the impact of the pandemic (1.2 percent of GDP; see paragraph 9). Higher market demand for liquidity also constrains domestic budget financing. Assuming the pandemic winds down in the third quarter, with tourists gradually returning and the implementation of some externally funded projects starting in the fourth quarter, the tourism sector is expected to decline by over 70 percent and GDP by 6 percent in 2020 (Table 1).

Text Figure 1.
Text Figure 1.

Real Gross Domestic Product

(Annual percentage change)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2020, 139; 10.5089/9781513542454.002.A001

Sources: IMF Staff Calculations.
Text Table 1.

Impact of COVID-19

(Percent of GDP)

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Sources: IMF staff estimates.

6. Urgent external support is essential to contain the impact. Absent any additional external financing, gross international reserves (GIR) are projected to drop to below 2½ months of 2019 imports, or % of the IMF reserve adequacy metric for low-income countries. Essential imports, including for food and medicine, could be constrained. The balance of payments and fiscal gaps are estimated at US$24 million (close to 6 percent of GDP), and US$17 million (4.2 percent of GDP), respectively (Tables 2 and 3).

Table 2a.

São Tomé and Príncipe: Financial Operations of the Central Government, 2016–24

(Millions of new dobra)

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Sources: São Tomé and Príncipe authorities’ data and IMF staff estimates and projec

Revenue is measured on a cash basis.

‘Non-tax revenue’ and ‘other current expenditure’ exhibit a hike in 2019 as some autonomous entities were brought into the Treasury’s accounts.

Excludes oil related revenues and a fraction of the oil surcharge for ENCO debt repayment, grants, interest earned, scheduled interest payments, foreign-financed capital outlays, and capitalization of regional organizations per definition in TMU.

Includes loan from Angola in 2016 and 2017.

Includes use of IMF program support.

Table 2b.

São Tomé and Príncipe: Financial Operations of the Central Government, 2016–24

(In percent of GDP)

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Sources: São Tomé and Príncipe authorities’ data and IMF staff estimates and projections.

Revenue is measured on a cash basis.

‘Non-tax revenue’ and ‘other current expenditure’ exhibit a hike in 2019 as some autonomous entities were brought into the Treasury’s accounts.

Excludes oil related revenues and a fraction of the oil surcharge for ENCO debt repayment, grants, interest earned, scheduled interest payments, foreign-financed capital outlays, and capitalization of regional organizations per definition in TMU.

Includes loan from Angola in 2016 and 2017.

Includes use of IMF program support.

Table 3a.

São Tomé and Príncipe: Balance of Payments, 2016–24

(Millions of U.S. dollars)

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Sources: São Tomé and Príncipe authorities’ data and IMF staff estimates and projections.

The grant for the debt service falling due in the 18 months from October 14, 2020 is subject to the availability of resources under the CCRT.

Percent of exports of goods and nonfactor services.

Gross international reserves exclude the National Oil Account and commercial banks’ foreign currency deposits at the BCSTP in order to meet reserve requirements, for new licensing, and for meeting capital requirements.

Imports of goods and nonfactor services excluding imports of investment goods and technical assistance.

Table 3b.

São Tomé and Príncipe: Balance of Payments, 2016–24

(In percent of GDP)

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Sources: São Tomé and Príncipe authorities’ data and IMF staff estimates and projections.

The grant for the debt service falling due in the 18 months from October 14, 2020 is subject to the availability of resources under the CCRT

Percent of exports of goods and nonfactor services.

Gross international reserves exclude the National Oil Account and commercial banks’ foreign currency deposits at the BCSTP in order to meet reserve requirements, for new licensing, and for meeting capital requirements.

Imports of goods and nonfactor services excluding imports of investment goods and technical assistance.

7. Real GDP is expected to recover partially to the pre-crisis level, growing by 5.5 percent next year. This, together with an unwinding of crisis-mitigation spending and a return to fiscal consolidation under the ECF-supported program, will bring the fiscal position broadly back on track, although small fiscal and balance of payments gaps would remain.

Authorities’ Response and Policy Discussions

The immediate priority is to contain the impact of the pandemic. The government remains committed to its medium-term strategy supported by the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), which aims to reduce internal and external imbalances and reduce debt vulnerabilities.

8. The authorities responded swiftly to the outbreak, and the country confirmed four initial cases on April 6. Those four infected persons had recently returned to the country and were asked to quarantine. A contingency plan prepared with the assistance of the World Health Organization (WHO) is being implemented. The government declared a state of emergency on March 17. All schools were closed, public gatherings prohibited, and international passenger flights suspended. The World Bank (WB) approved a program of US$2.5 million under its COVID-19 Strategic Preparedness and Response Program (SPRP) in early April. The authorities have requested support through the Catastrophe Containment window of the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust (CCRT) and are seeking additional support, particularly grants, from other partners. So far, the crisis has not triggered withdrawal of existing external support.

9. Policy discussions with the authorities focused on costing COVID-19 related health spending and countercyclical measures to cushion the shock in the short run, improving transparency of public spending, and promoting recovery:

  • a. Implement the COVID-19 contingency plan, costed at about US$3 million, to protect the population from the virus.

  • b. Assist the most vulnerable. The authorities plan to expand a current WB-supported cash-transfer program to provide additional support and cover additional vulnerable families.

  • c. Implement countercyclical measures to mitigate the impact on the economy (LOI ¶5–7). This includes allowing automatic stabilizers to work, allowing deferment for a limited period of some tax payments, offering incentives for businesses to retain workers, supporting the unemployed, and facilitating access to credit. Meanwhile, retail fuel prices will be kept unchanged to generate revenue from lower international oil prices, and a small solidarity contribution will be introduced on public servants’ salaries who are otherwise relatively insulated from the shock. The authorities have reaffirmed the formal agreement with the oil importer ENCO for the latter to fully transfer the oil price differential to the State and for the State to implement the agreement to pay off past fuel subsidy debt over time.

  • d. Safeguard the peg to the euro while helping to alleviate liquidity pressures. The central bank cut the reserve requirements for both foreign and national currencies by four percentage points to 17 and 14 percent, respectively. While the pre-crisis foreign reserve coverage met the IMF reserve adequacy metric, given the fragility of the economy from the lack of a diversified export base and heavy reliance on volatile external support, the reserve buffer should be further strengthened after the crisis, including through fiscal consolidation. The authorities will encourage banks to prudently restructure loans or grant a moratorium of six months to temporarily distressed but financially sound borrowers. To ensure financial stability, the BCSTP will also maintain prudential standards and reporting requirements (LOI ¶9) and request an eight-month moratorium on bank dividends.

  • e. Reinforce fiscal transparency to ensure the additional financing is spent appropriately. The government will issue a decision to publish large public procurement contracts once signed and the ex-post validation of delivery of these contracts, as well as publish monthly COVID-19 related expenditure. In addition, the COVID-19 related spending will be audited after the crisis (LOI ¶8). Crisis-mitigation measures have been authorized by parliament, and a revised budget will be sent to parliament when conditions allow. The authorities will also submit to parliament a government decree on the revised budget consistent with the above-listed policies. Budgetary execution and expenditure plans, with COVID-19 related spending included, will be shared with the IMF monthly.

  • f. Prepare to speed up the recovery. In particular, the authorities, in coordination with the National Institute for Civil Aviation, will prepare an action plan to address the issues related to the European Union’s Air Safety blacklist, which has significantly hindered tourism (LOI ¶10).

Modalities of Support

10. Staff support the authorities’ request for SDR 9.028 million (61 percent of quota, or US$12.263 million) under the RCF exogenous shock window to be made available as budget support.

  • a. São Tomé and Príncipe meets the eligibility requirements for support under the RCF: (i) it faces an urgent BOP need which, if not addressed, would result in immediate and severe economic disruption; (ii) timely augmentation of access to the existing ECF arrangement is not feasible due to the uncertainty regarding the duration and scale of the pandemic and the practical constraints on conducting comprehensive discussions with the authorities amid the pandemic; (iii) the country is in debt distress, but its debt is deemed sustainable after incorporating the impact of the pandemic, and capacity to repay the Fund remains adequate (Table 4); and (iv) the authorities have committed to pursuing appropriate economic policies for addressing the impact of the pandemic.

  • b. The proposed access of 61 percent of quota, in addition to the existing ECF arrangement, is within the applicable revised limits under the PRGT and would not trigger high access procedures.1 The proposed access is close to half of the estimated external financing gap. Given the country’s debt vulnerabilities, remaining needs are expected to be filled by grants from other multilateral and bilateral partners and policy adjustments. The RCF disbursements will be disbursed to the central bank and on-lent to the government to provide financing for virus-related spending. The authorities will prioritize measures to match spending with available resources. A safeguards assessment was completed in mid-2019. A memorandum of understanding between the central bank and government will be signed to outline the responsibilities for servicing financial obligations to the IMF.

Table 4.

Sao Tome and Principe: Indicators of Capacity to Repay the Fund, 2020–34

(as of April 2, 2020; In millions of SDRs, unless specified otherwise)

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Sources: Sao Tome and Principe authorities’ data and IMF staff estimates and projections.

Includes prospective RCF and CCRT debt service relief from April 14 to October 1 3, 2020.

After HIPC and MDRI debt relief. Including IMF repurchases and repayments in total debt service.

Gross international reserves excludes the National Oil Account and commercial banks’ foreign currency deposits at the BCSTP in order to meet reserve requirements, for new licensing, and for meeting capital requirements.

Risks

11. The outlook is subject to important downside risks. A local outbreak of the virus that is not contained would substantially exacerbate the social and economic impacts, as would a persistence of the pandemic globally. The tourism industry may take longer to recover, shortages of essential imported supplies could become more acute, and the overall impact on the economy and public revenue could be larger. In such a case, the financing gaps could increase. The authorities are taking steps to mitigate such risks, including implementing COVID-19 contingency plans and measures to speed up recovery. They also plan to prioritize and match spending with available resources. However, external aid will be crucial to mitigate these shocks.

Staff Appraisal

12. The COVID-19 pandemic is having a severe impact on São Tomé and Príncipe’s fragile economy. A drastic reduction in tourist arrivals, delays in externally financed projects, and disruptions in the supply of essential goods are expected to cause GDP to decline by 6 percent, a contraction of 9.5 percentage points relative to the pre-COVID-19 estimate. As a result, the country is facing urgent external and fiscal financing needs.

13. Staff supports the authorities’ immediate priorities to mitigate the impact of the pandemic and preserve macroeconomic stability. Appropriate measures are being taken to increase health spending, help the most vulnerable, and support the private sector while safeguarding the peg to euro.

14. Against this background, staff supports the authorities’ request for a disbursement under the exogenous shocks window of the Rapid Credit Facility in the amount of SDR 9.028 million (61 percent of quota). Staff’s support is based on the urgent balance of payments needs arising from a sudden exogenous shock and the authorities’ existing and prospective policies to address this external shock, including their commitment to seek additional external budget financing from other development partners. While risks to the outlook are substantial, including that the adverse impact of COVID-19 could be larger and more protracted than currently envisaged and the country is in debt distress due to long-standing external arrears, the country’s debt is deemed sustainable and its capacity to repay the Fund remains adequate.

15. Discussions for the first review under the program supported by the ECF are expected to continue at a later stage. The authorities have reaffirmed their commitment under the program and wish to continue to benefit from IMF technical assistance.

Appendix I. Letter of Intent

April 14, 2020

Madame Kristalina Georgieva

Managing Director

International Monetary Fund

Washington, D.C.

Dear Managing Director Georgieva:

1. This letter requests additional financial support from the IMF in an amount of SDR 9.028 million (61 percent of quota) under the exogenous shocks window of the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) to help the Government of Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Principe mitigate the continued adverse impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the country’s fiscal and external positions. We have also requested debt relief under the Catastrophic Containment and Relief Trust (CCRT).

2. The pandemic severely affects our economy, the budget, and the balance of payments, and first four cases were confirmed on April 6. The collapse of the tourism industry, delays in the implementation of externally financed infrastructure projects, and international supply-chain disruptions weigh heavily on the economy. The fiscal balance has been put under severe stress with the urgent need to scale up health spending and social assistance while revenues decline. Our preliminary analysis indicates that the economy will contract by 6 percent in 2020 with immediate and large fiscal needs. For 2021, under an optimistic scenario, global demand, as well as tourism, will recover partially to its pre-crisis level. This, along with the implementation of long delayed construction projects, could raise GDP to close to the 2019 level, implying a growth rate of 5.5 percent year-on-year. However, if the negative impact of the pandemic lasts longer globally, the economy in Sao Tome and Principe may only grow at 2.2 percent, with tourism slow to recover and construction projects further delayed.

3. The requested disbursement under the RCF will contribute towards filling the external financing gap and supporting the timely execution of our budget. RCF resources will be fully on-lent to the government to help mitigate revenue shortfalls and expenditure pressures. A Memorandum of Understanding will be signed by the central bank and the Ministry of Finance to specify the responsibilities for servicing financial obligations to the IMF. We believe IMF financing will play a catalytic role in attracting grants and other concessional financing from our development partners. We are seeking support from other partners, mainly in the form of grants given our high debt level. We have requested a grant of US$2.5 million from the World Bank under its COVID-19 Strategic Preparedness and Response Program (SPRP).

4. Our plan is spelled out in more detail below. In particular, we plan to implement countercyclical fiscal policy in the short-term, taking into consideration available financing. Our immediate priority will be implementing our COVID-19 contingency plan to protect the population from the virus, assist the most vulnerable, and apply countercyclical measures including offering incentives for businesses to retain workers, supporting the unemployed, and facilitating access to credit. While revenue is expected to be negatively impacted by the economic contraction, we intend to mitigate this by keeping retail fuel prices unchanged to generate revenue from the drop in international oil prices. We have reaffirmed the agreement with the oil importer ENCO for it to fully transfer the oil price differential to the State. We will also levy a small solidarity contribution on public servants’ salaries who are otherwise relatively insulated from the shock. In light of the uncertainty, we will continuously prioritize to match spending with available resources and avoid arrears.

Crisis Mitigation Plan Details

5. Key elements of the plan include the following:

  • Implementation of the health contingency plan prepared in coordination with the WHO, including associated health spending (for example, medicine, equipment, staffing, and treatment centers), to protect against COVID-19. The estimated cost, around US$3 million, is expected to be largely financed by the WB and WHO.

  • Expand the WB-supported cash-transfer program from 2600 to at least 5200 vulnerable households, and switch to monthly instead of bi-monthly cash payments to cover immediate cash needs, over a period of six months. Provide support to the disadvantaged and nursing homes (the elderly, disabled and abandoned children).

  • Support businesses, particularly those in tourism, that are expecting over a 50 percent drop in revenue in 2020 by:

    • Suspending for 3 months administrative penalties (interest on arrears, legal fees, foreclosure) on late payment of 2019 profit taxes, 2020 advance payments of profit taxes, and late payment of liabilities owed to the state.

    • Contributing over a period of 6 months two-thirds of workers’ salaries (based on the average base salary during January-February) with a cap of four times the minimum wage for civil servants (STD 1100, or US$50 per month), provided the employers also contribute a small, uniform share of the salary (the exact share to be determined).

    Where applicable, consumption tax and personal income tax will continue to be withheld at the source and transferred to the state.

  • To further encourage employment, the scheme described in the last bullet above will also apply to newly hired workers by any registered, already established business, for instance in agriculture, fishing, or sanitation, provided the employer can demonstrate the new employment is a net addition to his/her past employment.

  • For formally registered workers affected by the shock, including those who lost their jobs and members employed in the artistic and cultural sector, the state will contribute one-half of the worker’s average base salary during January-February, with a cap of four times the minimum wage (STD 1100), over a three-month period.

  • For unregistered workers (i.e. those in the informal sector) who can demonstrate that they lost their jobs, payment of STD 600 over a period of 3 months will be made, provided they register with the labor force and social security.

  • Where supply chains are disrupted, the state will procure seeds, feedstock, and other essential inputs to be sold to farmers at market price.

  • To generate savings:

    • Retail fuel prices will be kept unchanged at their present level.

    • Total wage bill at SOEs and autonomous public entities will be reduced by 20 percent over a period of 6 months to avoid the dismissal of staff and cover losses.

    • Civil servants outside the education and health sectors, who are relatively unaffected by the shock, will contribute between 5 and 10 percent of their wages as a solidarity tax for a period of 6 months. Given school closures, savings will also be automatically generated from the absence of overtime normally paid to teachers.

Estimated Costs of Key Crisis-Mitigation Measures

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6. The budget will be revised to incorporate the above policies and in line with the following breakdown.

7. Negotiations are ongoing with some commercial banks to establish a state-guaranteed credit line (around US$6 million with equal risk assumed by the state and banks) for SMEs affected by the slowdown. The government will consider extending the state-guaranteed credit line to finance viable businesses provided resources are available.

Central Government Expenses, 2020

(millions dobras)

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Transparency

8. We will ensure proper monitoring of all expenditure relating to the pandemic and improve transparency in public procurement. The government will ensure adequate control of total pandemic-related expenses and adopt measures by end-April 2020 to ensure better transparency and publicity regarding public procurement, particularly by publishing on the website of Ministry of Finance (MOF) or through announcements on other media (i) public procurement contracts, once signed, that require prior authorization from the Court of Accounts as per the Organic Law (no. 11/2019) and the ex-post validation of delivery of the contracts and (ii) monthly COVID-19 related expenditure. The crisis mitigation measures described in paragraphs 5–7 have been authorized by the parliament, and a revised budget consistent with the above policies will be submitted to parliament when conditions allow, at the latest by end-July. The government will also conduct an independent audit of spending after the crisis abates and publish the results to confirm that funds were used for their intended purpose. An IMF safeguards assessment was recently completed in August 2019 and we are committed to addressing the remaining issues.

Monetary and financial sector policies

9. Monetary and financial sector policies will seek to strike an appropriate balance between maintaining price and financial stability and sustaining economic activity. The BCSTP has prepared a contingency plan to minimize the impact of the COVID-19 crisis. Moreover, the BCSTP will continue to actively manage liquidity in the banking system, taking into account liquidity generated by RCF financed public spending, by reducing the minimum cash reserve requirement for both foreign and national currencies by 4 percentage points to 17 and 14 percent, respectively, to enable banks to continue to provide credit to the economy. The authorities will request a moratorium of 8 months on bank dividend payouts to ensure adequate capital to support lending. It will also advise banks to be flexible in renegotiating debt payments or to offer a moratorium on repayment for temporarily distressed but fundamentally sound borrowers. Nevertheless, loan reporting, classification, and provisioning standards will be maintained to safeguard financial stability; restructured loans will be classified accordingly to avoid compromising the information on loan quality; and any loan forbearance measures will be limited to the crisis period.

Medium-term policies

10. Our medium-term macroeconomic policies will be guided by our program supported by the Extended Credit Facility. Once the crisis has passed, we will continue to improve domestic revenue mobilization and contain public spending to help improve the fiscal position, safeguard the peg, and reduce the debt burden to ensure sustainability and alleviate the pressure on foreign exchange reserves. The government will also follow through with plans to introduce a VAT, reform our utility company (EMAE), and improve the business environment. In particular, we will develop a plan, in coordination with the National Institute for Civil Aviation, to remove the country from the European Union’s Air Safety blacklist to facilitate the recovery of the tourism sector.

11. We believe that the economic and financial policies set forth in this letter provide an adequate basis at this moment for achieving our macroeconomic and poverty reduction and growth objectives and address the balance of payments and fiscal difficulties caused by the pandemic. We do not intend to introduce exchange measures, multiple currency practices, trade restrictions that would worsen the current balance-of-payments difficulties.

12. In line with its commitment to transparency and accountability, we authorize the IMF to publish this letter and the staff report for the request for disbursement under the RCF, including placement of these on the IMF website in accordance with IMF procedures, following the IMF Executive Board’s approval of the request.

Sincerely yours

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1

The proposed access of 61 percent of quota is the maximum amount under annual limits on disbursements from the PRGT, given São Tomé and Príncipe’s existing disbursement schedule under the ECF.

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Democratic Republic of São Tomé And Príncipe: Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Democratic Republic of São Tomé And Príncipe
Author:
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.