Migración Colombia figures as of end-2019.
The lower projections are partly explained by the closure of the Venezuelan border during 2019Q1, as monthly migration flows from 2019Q2 were broadly in line with staff’s earlier projections.
Share of the labor force responding whether they are affiliated, contribute, or benefit from a social security entity.
We have also run standard worker-level fixed-effect regressions with region-time clustered standard errors. Results are broadly similar.
Driving time from Caracas to regional capitals from Google Maps.
This high correlation is present even when excluding the neighboring Norte de Santander region which includes Cucuta.
Because any identification of aggregate labor market equilibrium effects relies on relatively few regions, and due to potential weakness of the exogeneity restriction, we caution the reader to interpret this only as strong evidence of causality. We present the raw correlations and regression coefficients to portray the available evidence. Broadly similar results are obtained in worker-level fixed effects regressions without the use of the instrument.
For a literature summary on integration policies see “Dynamics between Integration Policies and Outcomes: a Synthesis of the Literature” from Bilgili et al., Migration Policy Group, 2015.
This approximation abstracts from the mechanical effects of depreciation on GDP measured in dollars or of changes in net exports on GDP.