Abstract
This Technical Assistance report on the Republic of Congo presents mission outcomes and priority recommendations conducted to support the National Statistics Institute in its work on the national accounts estimates. The mission reviewed the calculation of consumption of fixed capital for the general government sector, an important element in calculating production by cost of production. The 2016 accounts are finalized and closed through the summary tables and the 2017 accounts are being finalized. The mission focused on an analysis of the 2016 and 2017 national accounts finalized in accordance with the 1993 System of National Accounts (SNA). The analysis consisted of a review of the information sources used, the methods of calculation and extrapolation, and compliance with the 1993 SNA. The mission made corrections and provided the team with an explanation of the consequences of the corrections and how to integrate them in the accounts, particularly the corrections affecting the branches’ value added and, accordingly, gross domestic product. In order to facilitate progress in various areas of effort, the mission provided several priority recommendations focused on the urgency of preparing and validating a continuous, updated national accounts series. The mission proposes several corrections to the 2015 intermediate consumption matrix and recommends that the national accounting officers make the same corrections, proportionally, for 2016 and 2017.
Summary of Mission Outcomes and Priority Recommendations
1. A technical assistance mission in national accounting from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Regional Technical Assistance Center for Central Africa (AFRITAC Central) visited Brazzaville during December 5–14, 2018 to support the National Statistics Institute (INS) in its work on the national accounts estimates. The mission focused on an analysis of the 2016 and 2017 annual national accounts finalized in accordance with the System of National Accounts 1993 (1993 SNA). The analysis included a review of the information sources used, the methods of calculation and extrapolation, and compliance with the 1993 SNA. The 2016 accounts are completed and finalized, including the summary tables – supply and use tables (SUT), branch accounts, and integrated economic accounts table (IEAT); and the 2017 accounts are still being finalized. The mission recommends that the national accounting officers improve estimates based on the recommendations provided by the mission.1
2. The mission reviewed the calculation of consumption of fixed capital (CFC) for the general government sector (GGS), an important element in calculating production by cost of production. The mission supported the national accounting officers in revising the CFC and in calculating GGS production and value added for the period 2015–2017.
3. The extrapolations of production for the branches for which businesses’ combined statistical and tax returns (déclaration statistique et fiscale, DSF) are available are in need of improvement. The growth rates in terms of value, which are [applied to year n values to obtain the values for year n+1] and used for the conversion of current prices to constant prices, are calculated for different samples between two successive years. The mission assisted in the calculations by taking [consistent] samples between two years (balanced sampling) in order that the percentages would make sense. The correction resulted in modification of the total production and value added for those branches.
4. The technical coefficients used to project intermediate consumption by product are those from the base year for the 2005 accounts. The intermediate consumption matrix was reviewed during the mission. For some branches, the figures for products consumed appear to be unrealistic. The mission recommends efforts to implement a new base year for the accounts and improve the quality of results.
5. The mission conducted a one-day training session on the SNA. Most of the members of the national accounting unit staff were hired in the last five years and have been without work for two years for lack of office space and equipment (see December 2017 report of mission to the Congo by Mr. Hubert Vihouenou H. Gbossa). Following difficulties with the accounts, the mission decided to conduct a course in national accounting addressing the section on operations in goods and services and the section on revenue distribution operations. The mission also explained the conversion (passage) from one economic aggregate to another (GDP, gross disposable income, gross saving, and net lending or net borrowing).
6. The directory of businesses and business revenue files are needed for sampling selection for economic surveys. The mission met with the INS Director General and the IMF Resident Representative to the Congo for the purpose of obtaining copies of the business directory and revenue files, and attempted unsuccessfully to arrange a meeting at the Ministry of Finance with the Director General of Taxes to explain the importance of providing the business directory to the INS.
To facilitate progress in these areas of effort, the mission provided the following priority recommendations focused on the urgency of preparing and validating a continuous, updated national accounts series.
Priority Recommendations
Priority Recommendations
| March 2019 | Adjust the products modified by the mission’s corrections as well as the branch accounts. Incorporate the corrections in the accounts at constant prices. | INS |
| June 2019 | Document the methodology applied in compiling the accounts. | INS |
| June 2019 | Make arrangements with the Ministry of Finance to obtain the corporate file annually and the value added tax (VAT) file quarterly. | INS |
Priority Recommendations
| March 2019 | Adjust the products modified by the mission’s corrections as well as the branch accounts. Incorporate the corrections in the accounts at constant prices. | INS |
| June 2019 | Document the methodology applied in compiling the accounts. | INS |
| June 2019 | Make arrangements with the Ministry of Finance to obtain the corporate file annually and the value added tax (VAT) file quarterly. | INS |
For further details on the priority recommendations and related actions, see “Technical Evaluation and Detailed Recommendations” section of the action plan.
Analysis of the 2016 and 2017 National Accounts
A. Analysis of the Branch Accounts
7. The 2016 accounts are finalized and closed through the summary tables (SUT, IEAT) and the 2017 accounts are being finalized. The mission focused on an analysis of the 2016 and 2017 national accounts finalized in accordance with the 1993 SNA. The analysis consisted of a review of the information sources used, the methods of calculation and extrapolation, and compliance with the 1993 SNA. The mission made corrections and provided the team with an explanation of the consequences of the corrections and how to integrate them in the accounts, particularly the corrections affecting the branches’ value added and, accordingly, GDP.
8. The supply and use balances by product are calculated for both years for 20 products, at current prices and constant prices. The branch production and operations accounts are also finalized through gross operating surplus for both 2016 and 2017 and the SUT with production and intermediate consumption matrices. The IEAT is finalized for 2016 and is being compiled for 2017.
9. The conversion of current prices to constant prices for the agricultural branches is based on the population growth rate, as the volume index, and the price index of household final consumption expenditure. For the agricultural branches other than forestry, the national accounting officers used the population growth rate (three percent) as an alternative indicator of volume growth, and the indices of household consumption prices relating to agricultural products as the price index.
10. It should be noted that the 2016 and 2017 accounts are based on the coefficients from the intermediate uses table (IUT) and the ratios from the base year 2005. The growth rates are applied to the 2005 accounts every year through the 2017 accounts.
11. The production of branches for which businesses’ DSFs are available are extrapolated using growth data in sales of a comparable samples between two successive years. The growth rates of production in terms of value, [which are applied to year n values to obtain the values for year n+1], are calculated based on growth in sales of businesses that filed their DSFs with the INS. The samples of businesses for two successive years are different. As a result, the growth rates are in need of improvement. The mission assisted in correcting the rates by first taking comparable samples between two successive years (balanced sampling) so that the rates make sense, and secondly, by adding the production of newly created businesses, if applicable. Note that the latter step was not performed insofar as no businesses were created during the period. The mission corrected the production and value-added estimates of those branches.
12. The mission reviewed the calculation of CFC for the GGS, an important element in calculating the production by costs. The method of calculation, initiated during the previous AFRITAC Central mission (Mr. Gbossa, December 2017), was applied by the mission to calculate the CFC for 2015, 2016, and 2017. The new CFC values for the GGS facilitated a revision of the calculation of production and value added of the GGS.
13. The technical coefficients used for the projection of intermediate consumption by product are the coefficients from the base year for the 2005 accounts. The intermediate consumption matrix for 2016 and 2017 is obtained by projection of the technical coefficients from the IUT for the 2005 base year over the branches’ production. For particular branches, the figures for products consumed appear to be unrealistic (example: fresh fish consumed by the trade branch, crude oil consumed by the food industries branch). The levels of intermediate consumption of some branches are too high or too low in comparison with resources, although the balances of those products have already been calculated. The mission discussed the matrices with the national accounting officers and corrected them. Accordingly, the balances of products modified by the corrections should be revised as well as the calculation of the branches’ value added.
14. The mission was unable to meet with the Director General of Taxes at the Ministry of Finance. In order to obtain copies of the master list of businesses, total sales by business, and VAT collected, the mission attempted to arrange a meeting with the Director General of Taxes at the Ministry of Finance to explain to him the importance of providing the INS with the list of businesses. The mission also hoped to explain the importance of having a copy of the file of businesses’ total sales and VAT collected, on a quarterly basis, from the standpoint of future compilation of the quarterly national accounts. In this context, the mission met with the INS director general and the IMF Resident Representative to the Congo and explained these issues so that they would contact the minister of finance to obtain the files.
B. Capacity Strengthening
15. The mission conducted a one-day course on the SNA during the mission. Most of the members of the national accounting unit staff were hired in the last five years and have been without work for two years for lack of office space and equipment (see December 2017 report of mission to the Congo by Mr. Gbossa). Following difficulties with the accounts, the mission decided to conduct a course in national accounts addressing the section on transactions in goods and services (definitions, balances, price systems, and summary) and the section on revenue distribution (definitions, payer-receiver balance, sequence of accounts, and summary. The mission also explained the conversion (passage) of one economic aggregate to another (GDP, gross national product, gross disposable income, gross saving, and net lending or net borrowing) and the ratios used in the analysis and measurement of economic performance. Since the national accounting officers do not compile financial accounts at this time, the mission did not consider it necessary to expand the course to cover those operations.
16. The transition from business accounting to the SNA. A cross-reference table was prepared based on the balance sheets and income statements included in the businesses’ DSFs to facilitate the conversion to operations of the SNA. The mission also presented methods for calculating dividends distributed by companies and companies’ gross fixed capital formation based on information from the corporate balance sheets.
17. To shorten the time required for publication of the accounts, the 2016 and 2017 accounts were compiled using Excel spreadsheets. After validation, the accounts will be incorporated in the automated system used to compile the national accounts (ERETES). The software ensures the consistency of data across all accounts, identifies any errors, and allows users to input explanatory notes for specific data fields (e.g., source, method of estimation) and extract tables as required.
Recommended Actions:
Correct the 2016 and 2017 accounts prior to publication, incorporating the comments and correction methods initiated by the mission;
Establish contact with the Ministry of Finance to obtain the listings of businesses and sales by business, subject to mechanisms to ensure confidentiality; and
Write up the methodology adopted for compilation of the counts, to be published with the accounts.
Detailed Technical Evaluation and Recommendations
A. Action Plan
| A. Finalize the 2016 and 2017 national accounts | ||
| High | Re-balance the products impacted by corrections and the branch accounts concerned. Input the corrections to the accounts at constant prices. [Priority recommendation] | March 2019 |
| Medium | Calculate the different economic aggregates as presented by the mission after finalization of the IEAT for 2016 and 2017. | March 2019 |
| Low | Recalculate the technical coefficients in the input-output tables, adapted to the intermediate consumptions corrected by the mission, to be applied to definitive version of the 2016 and 2017 accounts. | June 2019 |
| High | Write up the methodology applied in compiling the accounts. Most of the national accounting staff for young and only the former unit chief has knowledge of all the methods and sources used. [Priority recommendation] | June 2019 |
| Medium | Publish the methodological notes, which are useful for new national accounting staff as well as users (e.g., for studies, planning, and other uses). | June 2019 |
| B. Improve production of the national accounts | ||
| High | Follow up with the Ministry of Finance, specifically the tax directorate, to obtain the master file of businesses and annual updates and establish a business directory at the INS to serve as a basis for sampling and extrapolation for economic surveys. [Priority recommendation] | March 2019 |
| Medium | Following contact with the Ministry of Finance, try to obtain the file of VAT collected quarterly with the corresponding revenue for the purpose of future compilation of the quarterly accounts. | December 2019 |
| Low | Establish contact with the social security entities to obtain the file of affiliated units, number of staff employed, and salaries distributed. The file will help improve the quality of the business directory and will provide statistics on unemployment and salaries. | December 2019 |
| A. Finalize the 2016 and 2017 national accounts | ||
| High | Re-balance the products impacted by corrections and the branch accounts concerned. Input the corrections to the accounts at constant prices. [Priority recommendation] | March 2019 |
| Medium | Calculate the different economic aggregates as presented by the mission after finalization of the IEAT for 2016 and 2017. | March 2019 |
| Low | Recalculate the technical coefficients in the input-output tables, adapted to the intermediate consumptions corrected by the mission, to be applied to definitive version of the 2016 and 2017 accounts. | June 2019 |
| High | Write up the methodology applied in compiling the accounts. Most of the national accounting staff for young and only the former unit chief has knowledge of all the methods and sources used. [Priority recommendation] | June 2019 |
| Medium | Publish the methodological notes, which are useful for new national accounting staff as well as users (e.g., for studies, planning, and other uses). | June 2019 |
| B. Improve production of the national accounts | ||
| High | Follow up with the Ministry of Finance, specifically the tax directorate, to obtain the master file of businesses and annual updates and establish a business directory at the INS to serve as a basis for sampling and extrapolation for economic surveys. [Priority recommendation] | March 2019 |
| Medium | Following contact with the Ministry of Finance, try to obtain the file of VAT collected quarterly with the corresponding revenue for the purpose of future compilation of the quarterly accounts. | December 2019 |
| Low | Establish contact with the social security entities to obtain the file of affiliated units, number of staff employed, and salaries distributed. The file will help improve the quality of the business directory and will provide statistics on unemployment and salaries. | December 2019 |
B. Analysis of the 2016–2017 Accounts
18. The primary sector accounts (excluding forestry) are estimated based on the base year 2005 accounts due to the insufficiency of more recent data. The production of the agriculture, stock farming, and hunting branch are projected each year based on the base year 2005 accounts, by applying an annual volume growth rate equal to the population growth rates (three percent) and an index of household consumption prices for agricultural products. The population growth rate is based on the results of the 2007 general population census. The resultant accounts are compared to the results of household consumption surveys from 2005 and 2011. In the absence of more recent information, this method allows agricultural production to be estimated at constant prices and at current prices. The product balance is based on the structure of uses from the 2005 accounts, using international trade imports and exports by product.
19. The percentage value added (VA/P) and share of salaries in total value added (RS/VA) are fixed over time and are the same as in 2005. The forest products branch accounts are estimated based on data from the Congolese forest product export company (Société d’exportation des produits forestiers du Congo, SEPFC). Forest product production and exports are very important in the Congolese economy. The SEPFC has a monopoly and control of forest product exports. The local consumption of those products is estimated based on data from the Ministry of Forest Economy.
20. The hydrocarbon extraction branch and petroleum refinery branch accounts are estimated indirectly. The production of crude petroleum is largely exported, and data on exports are available. The portion sold to the country’s only refinery is obtained from the refinery’s DSF, accounted for as a purchase (intermediate consumption). A portion of the fuel sold on the local market is produced by the refinery, and the remainder is imported. Accordingly, by combining the refinery’s external trade and DSF, the national accountants were able to estimate the production for those two products. The production is converted annually to constant prices based on the known prices of hydrocarbons and refined products.
21. The quarrying branch is entirely informal and estimates are based on a correlation with the construction and public works (CPW) sector. Intermediate consumption by the CPW sector accounts for all quarry production, and the national accounting officers estimated quarrying production by means of a correlation with CPW production. The mission recommended basing the estimates on the 2005 household consumption survey, which includes the informal sector.
22. The industrial sector accounts compiled based on the DSF contain a number of calculation errors. The sector includes food manufacturing industries, woodworking industries, chemical industries, nonmetallic minerals, and other manufacturing industries. The method used to estimate the production for year “n” is to calculate the growth in sales for businesses for which DSFs are available and apply it to the previous year’s production. The mission commented that the samples for two successive years are not the same, and therefore the resultant growth rate does not represent actual sector growth because it also includes the sampling difference. The mission recalculated the figures for the “other manufacturing industries” sector based on [consistent] samples over successive years and then added any newly created businesses. Note that no new businesses were created during the period in question. The growth rate for the “other manufacturing industries” sector in terms of value in 2015 is 5.9 percent rather than 66.2 percent. Taking the same price index used, the volume index would therefore be 2.7 percent rather than 61.2 percent. The productions for 2016 and 2017 should be recalculated based on the corrected 2015 production, although the growth rates are correct.
23. The accounts for the electricity and water branches are based on the DSFs. The national accounting officers have the accounting documents contained in the DSFs of the national electricity corporation (SNE) and the national water distribution corporation (SNDE). The mission commented that electricity production increased by 1 percent in 2016 relative to 2015, although the total production of the productive sectors fell by 13 percent and household consumption declined by 4.5 percent over the same period. The mission recommends that the accountants review the SNE’s DSF and recalculate production.
Correction of “Other Manufacturing Industries” Branch Production at Current Prices
Correction of “Other Manufacturing Industries” Branch Production at Current Prices
| Year | Amounts in the current accounts | Amounts corrected by the mission | Impact on national production | Impact on GDP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth rate | Production value | Growth rate | Production value | |||
| 2015 | 66.2% | 369,975 | 5.9% | 235,730 | -1.1% | -1.0% |
| 2016 | -14.5% | 316,467 | -14.5% | 201,660 | -1.0% | -1.0% |
| 2017 | -9.0% | 288,107 | -9.0% | 183,591 | -0.9% | -0.9% |
Correction of “Other Manufacturing Industries” Branch Production at Current Prices
| Year | Amounts in the current accounts | Amounts corrected by the mission | Impact on national production | Impact on GDP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth rate | Production value | Growth rate | Production value | |||
| 2015 | 66.2% | 369,975 | 5.9% | 235,730 | -1.1% | -1.0% |
| 2016 | -14.5% | 316,467 | -14.5% | 201,660 | -1.0% | -1.0% |
| 2017 | -9.0% | 288,107 | -9.0% | 183,591 | -0.9% | -0.9% |
24. The CPW sector is not divided into branches, and production is estimated for the sector as a whole. Production for the entire sector is based on the DSFs of construction companies by calculating the sales growth rate between two successive years and applying the rate every year to 2005 production. The samples are not identical and as a result, the growth rates are incorrect. The mission recommends dividing the sector into (i) residential construction, (ii) nonresidential construction, and (iii) civil engineering. The mission recalculated the growth rates using [consistent] samples (balanced sampling) and recalculated sector production at current prices.
Correction of “Construction” Sector Production at Current Prices
Correction of “Construction” Sector Production at Current Prices
| Year | Amounts in the current accounts | Amounts corrected by the mission | Impact on national production | Impact on GDP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth rate | Amounts at current prices | Growth rate | Amounts at current prices | |||
| 2015 | + 11% | 2,713,472 | -29% | 1,732,720 | 9% | 8% |
| 2016 | -39% | 1,574,847 | -53% | 740,178 | 8% | 6.5% |
| 2017 | -23% | 1,210,894 | -24% | 562,535 | 6.5% | 5.3% |
Correction of “Construction” Sector Production at Current Prices
| Year | Amounts in the current accounts | Amounts corrected by the mission | Impact on national production | Impact on GDP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth rate | Amounts at current prices | Growth rate | Amounts at current prices | |||
| 2015 | + 11% | 2,713,472 | -29% | 1,732,720 | 9% | 8% |
| 2016 | -39% | 1,574,847 | -53% | 740,178 | 8% | 6.5% |
| 2017 | -23% | 1,210,894 | -24% | 562,535 | 6.5% | 5.3% |
25. The production of the trade sector is estimated based on DSFs and adjusted according to the sum of commercial margins on goods. The margins relative to other resources have been constant since the 2005 accounts. The mission recommends recalculating them for each year based on the DSFs available for the [sector].
26. The production of the transport sector is estimated based on DSFs and adjusted according to the sum of commercial margins on transport of goods. The transport activity is estimated as a whole; it is not broken down by mode of transport.
27. The hotel, bar, and restaurant branch production is estimated based on DSFs and an annual survey conducted in August. The samples of available DSFs used to calculate growth rates between successive years are not the same, and therefore the resultant growth rates include the sampling difference. The mission recalculated the growth rates based on fixed samples between two years and recalculated the branch production.
Correction of Hotel, Bar, and Restaurant Sector Production at Current Prices
Correction of Hotel, Bar, and Restaurant Sector Production at Current Prices
| Year | Amounts in the current accounts | Amounts corrected by the mission | Impact on national production | Impact on GDP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth rate | Amounts at current prices | Growth rate | Amounts at current prices | |||
| 2015 | 9% | 369,451 | -18% | 277967 | 0.8% | 1.8% |
| 2016 | 3% | 380,285 | -11% | 247391 | 1.3% | 2.0% |
| 2017 | -5% | 361,271 | -13% | 215230 | 1.3% | 1.9% |
Correction of Hotel, Bar, and Restaurant Sector Production at Current Prices
| Year | Amounts in the current accounts | Amounts corrected by the mission | Impact on national production | Impact on GDP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth rate | Amounts at current prices | Growth rate | Amounts at current prices | |||
| 2015 | 9% | 369,451 | -18% | 277967 | 0.8% | 1.8% |
| 2016 | 3% | 380,285 | -11% | 247391 | 1.3% | 2.0% |
| 2017 | -5% | 361,271 | -13% | 215230 | 1.3% | 1.9% |
28. Rental of dwellings is estimated based on the 2005 household consumption survey and the 2007 population census. The production of rentals (real estate activity) is estimated based on data from the 2005 household consumption survey. The volume growth used is the population growth (3 percent annually). The index of household consumption prices for rental is used to estimate rent at current prices. The population survey indicates the stock of housing by region and type of housing, as well as the distribution of owners and renters, which is used for the purpose of estimating actual and imputed rent.
29. The production of financial services (banks, insurance companies, and auxiliary financial institutions) is estimated each year by projection, using a three percent volume index (the population growth rate) and a price index of three percent as well. DSFs are available for all banks and insurance companies, and the data are typed in. The mission recommends using this data in estimating production and intermediate consumption. The mission presented the methodology for calculating financial intermediation services indirectly measured (FISIM) based on receivables and debts, which will allow FISIM to be broken down by institutional sector – which will be useful from the standpoint of an eventual transition to the System of National Accounts, 2008.
30. The Directorate General of the Economy centrally manages data from the four telecommunications operators. The production and value added is calculated based on the available DSFs. Postal services are provided by two private companies. The public postal service is not included, and the mission recommends including it in the definitive provision of the accounts.
31. The production of the “other market services” branch is estimated based on the DSFs. The use of different samples in 2015 and 2016 resulted in incorrect growth rates. The mission recalculated production and value added for the branch.
Correction of “Other Market Services” Branch Production at Current Prices
Correction of “Other Market Services” Branch Production at Current Prices
| Year | Amounts in the current accounts | Amounts corrected by the mission | Impact on national production | Impact on GDP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth rate | Amounts at current prices | Growth rate | Amounts at current prices | |||
| 2016 | 60% | 880,305 | 49% | 819,973 | 0.6 % | 6.6 % |
| 2017 | 12% | 984,758 | 12% | 918,369 | 0.6 % | 6.9 % |
Correction of “Other Market Services” Branch Production at Current Prices
| Year | Amounts in the current accounts | Amounts corrected by the mission | Impact on national production | Impact on GDP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth rate | Amounts at current prices | Growth rate | Amounts at current prices | |||
| 2016 | 60% | 880,305 | 49% | 819,973 | 0.6 % | 6.6 % |
| 2017 | 12% | 984,758 | 12% | 918,369 | 0.6 % | 6.9 % |
32. The GGS accounts include the central government, local authorities, the social security agencies, and administrative public entities other than healthcare and education. The evaluation of intermediate consumption and payment of salaries for the central government is based on the information contained in the general government budget. For the social security agencies, the amounts are taken directly from the agencies’ documents, which are available each year. CFC, an important element for the calculation of production by cost, is calculated using a model developed during a previous mission. It is based on a series of 20 years of GGS gross fixed capital formation. The mission recalculated the CFC and its repercussions on public administration data (GGF) production, value added, and final consumption.
Correction of GGS CFC and Production
Correction of GGS CFC and Production
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFC in the current accounts | 334,783 | 331,979 | 328,183 |
| CFC corrected by the mission | 135,000 | 235,000 | 218,000 |
| Correction of production | - 199 783 | - 96 979 | - 110 183 |
| Correction of value added | - 199 783 | - 96 979 | - 110 183 |
| Impact on GDP | -2.6% | -1.4% | -1.5% |
Correction of GGS CFC and Production
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFC in the current accounts | 334,783 | 331,979 | 328,183 |
| CFC corrected by the mission | 135,000 | 235,000 | 218,000 |
| Correction of production | - 199 783 | - 96 979 | - 110 183 |
| Correction of value added | - 199 783 | - 96 979 | - 110 183 |
| Impact on GDP | -2.6% | -1.4% | -1.5% |
33. Although the basic information exists, total GGF production is broken down into market production and nonmarket production (GGF final consumption) using the same proportions as in 2005. The mission presented the method to be used to break down production but did not perform the calculations, and recommends that the national accounting officers use the information from the government fiscal reporting table (TOFE) provided by the Ministry of Finance and recalculate the productions. The conversion to constant prices is performed by deflating by the general household consumption price index. For future accounts, the mission recommends using an index of increases in civil service salaries as the price index, or else using the increase in total civil service employees as the volume index.
34. The SUTs for the period 2015–2017 are prepared by projecting the technical coefficients of the IUT for base year 2005 applied to the branches’ current-year productions. Since the first step of compiling the branch accounts is completed, the national accounting officers project the productions and intermediate consumptions thus obtained according to coefficients of the 2005 input-output table. In this way, they were able to produce production and intermediate consumption matrices by product for 20 products in each of 20 branches. The results will be used to produce supply-use balances by product.
Correction of Intermediate Consumption
Correction of Intermediate Consumption
| Hydrocarbon extraction | Food industries | Woodworking, fabric, wood or basketry items | Chemical industries | Other manufacturing industries | Production and distribution of electricity and water | Construction | Trade | Transportation | Telecom | Other market services | General government sector | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fishing products | 2132 | -2132 | 0 | ||||||||||
| Crude oil | -4856 | 4856 | 0 | ||||||||||
| Chemical products | -10000 | -30000 | 40000 | 0 | |||||||||
| Electricity | -5000 | 5000 | 0 | ||||||||||
| Construction | -5000 | -10000 | 15000 | 0 | |||||||||
| Telecom | -30000 | -20000 | 50000 | 0 | |||||||||
| Other market services | -300000 | 30000 | 50000 | 20000 | 100000 | 100000 | 0 | ||||||
| 0 | |||||||||||||
| Total | -335000 | 2276 | 5000 | 4856 | 50000 | 20000 | -35000 | -2132 | 40000 | 50000 | 100000 | 100000 | 0 |
| Value added in the current accounts | 1,788683 | 314433 | 15950 | 20700 | 184780 | 62696 | 1,593595 | 698358 | 435258 | 153429 | 408690 | 507230 | 6,183802 |
| Value added corrected by the mission | 2,123683 | 312157 | 10950 | 15844 | 134780 | 42696 | 1,628595 | 700490 | 395258 | 103429 | 308690 | 407230 | 6,183802 |
Correction of Intermediate Consumption
| Hydrocarbon extraction | Food industries | Woodworking, fabric, wood or basketry items | Chemical industries | Other manufacturing industries | Production and distribution of electricity and water | Construction | Trade | Transportation | Telecom | Other market services | General government sector | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fishing products | 2132 | -2132 | 0 | ||||||||||
| Crude oil | -4856 | 4856 | 0 | ||||||||||
| Chemical products | -10000 | -30000 | 40000 | 0 | |||||||||
| Electricity | -5000 | 5000 | 0 | ||||||||||
| Construction | -5000 | -10000 | 15000 | 0 | |||||||||
| Telecom | -30000 | -20000 | 50000 | 0 | |||||||||
| Other market services | -300000 | 30000 | 50000 | 20000 | 100000 | 100000 | 0 | ||||||
| 0 | |||||||||||||
| Total | -335000 | 2276 | 5000 | 4856 | 50000 | 20000 | -35000 | -2132 | 40000 | 50000 | 100000 | 100000 | 0 |
| Value added in the current accounts | 1,788683 | 314433 | 15950 | 20700 | 184780 | 62696 | 1,593595 | 698358 | 435258 | 153429 | 408690 | 507230 | 6,183802 |
| Value added corrected by the mission | 2,123683 | 312157 | 10950 | 15844 | 134780 | 42696 | 1,628595 | 700490 | 395258 | 103429 | 308690 | 407230 | 6,183802 |
35. The mission analyzed the intermediate consumption matrix for 2005 and observed inconsistencies. An example is the trade branch, which consumes fishing products and products from the food industries branch, which consumes crude oil. The mission proposes the following corrections to the 2015 intermediate consumption matrix and recommends that the national accounting officers make the same corrections, proportionally, for 2016 and 2017.
Recommended Actions:
Correct the accounts for 2015, 2016, and 2017 prior to publication in March 2019, incorporating the mission’s comments and correction methods.
After correction, enter the accounts into the ERETES system before preparing the final third quarter 2019 accounts.
Try to establish contact with the Ministry of Finance in 2019 to obtain the lists of businesses and sales by business, subject to a mechanism to ensure confidentiality; and contact the social security agencies to obtain lists of member units, staffing, and salaries.
Write up the methodology adopted for compiling the accounts, to be published with the accounts.
C. Officials Met During the Mission
List of accounting officers of the Congolese INS
List of accounting officers of the Congolese INS
| 1 | ELENGA NGATSALA | Faël | ngatsalaelengafael@gmail.com (242) 069752601 |
| 2 | DIALLO | Fatoumata | diallofatly@yahoo.fr |
| 3 | MAV COSTODES | Pierre | macospial@gmail.com |
| 4 | BIENGOLO | Audrey | audystel@gmail.com |
| 5 | KESSA | Théophile | thkessa@gmail.com |
| 6 | MAHOUNGOU | Manou Zeus Gildas | mahoungoumanou@gmail.com |
| 7 | AMBOULOU PO | Borgia Sylvestre | ambouloupo@gmail.com |
| 8 | DIAMBELA | Amedé | diambela1@gmail.com |
| 9 | NKOUA | Noël | nkouanoel@gmail.com |
| 10 | EBANDA | Vissainte | maviedline@gmail.com |
| 11 | BEMBA | Clève | bembacleve@gmail.com |
| 12 | POUKI NGOUALA | Chabrel de Stevin | ngoualadestevins@gmail.com |
| 13 | KABIKISSA | Bernard | bernicheblanc@gmail.com |
List of accounting officers of the Congolese INS
| 1 | ELENGA NGATSALA | Faël | ngatsalaelengafael@gmail.com (242) 069752601 |
| 2 | DIALLO | Fatoumata | diallofatly@yahoo.fr |
| 3 | MAV COSTODES | Pierre | macospial@gmail.com |
| 4 | BIENGOLO | Audrey | audystel@gmail.com |
| 5 | KESSA | Théophile | thkessa@gmail.com |
| 6 | MAHOUNGOU | Manou Zeus Gildas | mahoungoumanou@gmail.com |
| 7 | AMBOULOU PO | Borgia Sylvestre | ambouloupo@gmail.com |
| 8 | DIAMBELA | Amedé | diambela1@gmail.com |
| 9 | NKOUA | Noël | nkouanoel@gmail.com |
| 10 | EBANDA | Vissainte | maviedline@gmail.com |
| 11 | BEMBA | Clève | bembacleve@gmail.com |
| 12 | POUKI NGOUALA | Chabrel de Stevin | ngoualadestevins@gmail.com |
| 13 | KABIKISSA | Bernard | bernicheblanc@gmail.com |
List of interviewees other than accounting officers
List of interviewees other than accounting officers
| GABRIEL Batsanga | INS Director General | gbatsanga@yahoo.fr |
| ALUN H. Thomas | IMF Resident Representative | athomas@imf.org |
| NSOUGUI-TONADIO Honoré | Economist, Bank of Central African States (IMF Resident Representative Office) | HNsouguiTonadio@imf.org |
List of interviewees other than accounting officers
| GABRIEL Batsanga | INS Director General | gbatsanga@yahoo.fr |
| ALUN H. Thomas | IMF Resident Representative | athomas@imf.org |
| NSOUGUI-TONADIO Honoré | Economist, Bank of Central African States (IMF Resident Representative Office) | HNsouguiTonadio@imf.org |
Annex. Summary of Corrections
| Calculate the GGF CFC: calculation errors in 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017. | Reviewed the calculations corrected by the mission. Revise the calculations of GGF production and value added. | GGF production and value added and therefore GDP. |
| Extrapolation of the branches’ production based on DSF: the growth rate in terms of value is calculated based on different samples between years. | Select [consistent] samples over two years (the same businesses) and weak calculate the growth rate for these branches. The mission corrected most of the rate and recalculated production for the branches. Incorporate the corrections into the branch accounts and recalculate the balances for the corresponding products. | Production and value added for the branches and therefore GDP. |
| Postal services and telecom branch: in recent years, the volume of communications on mobile telephones has increased, and so has access to the Internet; at the same time, prices have decreased (competition between operators). In the 2015, 2016, and 2017 accounts, however, the volume-price relationship moves in the opposite direction. | Review the volume/price relationship. | Production and value added at constant prices. GDP at constant prices for 2015, 2016, and 2017. |
| Financial activities: the volume index adopted is the population growth rate (3 percent) over the entire series of accounts, although there is no correlation between the two indices. | For banks: choose a price index equal to the change in the average monthly rate and deduce the volume index. For insurance, use the increase in the number of insurance contracts as the volume index and deduce the price index. | Production, value added, GDP at constant prices. |
| FISIM: the volume index is 3 percent (population growth) for the entire series of accounts from 2007 through 2016. Four 2017, the index is -10 percent (negative). | Use the same volume index used for banks for the FISIM. Revise the entire series, or at least correct 2017. | 2017 GDP at constant prices |
| Trade branch: the volume index is equal to 0 percent for the entire series from 2007 through 2017. | Recalculate the index according to the increase in volume of the Psalm of production and goods imports (excluding services). | Production, value added, and GDP at constant prices for the entire series. |
| Territorial correction: volume index = 1.00 for the 2007–2016 series. The index is equal to 2.00 for 2017. | Revise the index. Example: use the change in exchange rates as the index of prices and deduct the volume index. | Imports (M), Exports (X) and final consumption at constant prices. |
| Intermediate consumption matrix: – Forestry: excessive intermediate consumption of chemical products, construction, and other market services - Petroleum extraction: consumes nearly 60 percent of total intermediate consumption of telecom products and other market services (excessive) - Agri-food industry: consumes crude petroleum, consumes a fairly large amount of construction and market services Construction/public works: consumes 40 percent of total intermediate consumption of manufactured products and a large number of chemical products (30 percent of total intermediate consumption) - Trade: consumes fishing products - Transport consumes very little fuel, yet this branch should be the largest consumer of fuels. | The base year for the accounts is 2005. Revise the technical coefficients used in the projection. The mission already corrected some intermediate. consumptions and suggested other corrections discussed during the mission. Make corrections to the intermediate expenditures table. | Intermediate consumption, value added, and GDP. |
| The chemical industry branch has a very low value added (VA/P): 8.7 percent, the lowest of all the branches. | The mission corrected the branch intermediate consumption of CPW and transport products. Redo the balances for these products and recalculate the value added of the chemical industries branch. | |
| This item is not included for lack of information. | Provide estimates pending the final account. | Production, value added, and GDP. |
| Fuel is subsidized. No product subsidies are indicated in the accounts. | Indicate the fuel subsidy, even if it is treated as a transfer in the government budget. | Balance of chemical products. |
| Calculate the GGF CFC: calculation errors in 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017. | Reviewed the calculations corrected by the mission. Revise the calculations of GGF production and value added. | GGF production and value added and therefore GDP. |
| Extrapolation of the branches’ production based on DSF: the growth rate in terms of value is calculated based on different samples between years. | Select [consistent] samples over two years (the same businesses) and weak calculate the growth rate for these branches. The mission corrected most of the rate and recalculated production for the branches. Incorporate the corrections into the branch accounts and recalculate the balances for the corresponding products. | Production and value added for the branches and therefore GDP. |
| Postal services and telecom branch: in recent years, the volume of communications on mobile telephones has increased, and so has access to the Internet; at the same time, prices have decreased (competition between operators). In the 2015, 2016, and 2017 accounts, however, the volume-price relationship moves in the opposite direction. | Review the volume/price relationship. | Production and value added at constant prices. GDP at constant prices for 2015, 2016, and 2017. |
| Financial activities: the volume index adopted is the population growth rate (3 percent) over the entire series of accounts, although there is no correlation between the two indices. | For banks: choose a price index equal to the change in the average monthly rate and deduce the volume index. For insurance, use the increase in the number of insurance contracts as the volume index and deduce the price index. | Production, value added, GDP at constant prices. |
| FISIM: the volume index is 3 percent (population growth) for the entire series of accounts from 2007 through 2016. Four 2017, the index is -10 percent (negative). | Use the same volume index used for banks for the FISIM. Revise the entire series, or at least correct 2017. | 2017 GDP at constant prices |
| Trade branch: the volume index is equal to 0 percent for the entire series from 2007 through 2017. | Recalculate the index according to the increase in volume of the Psalm of production and goods imports (excluding services). | Production, value added, and GDP at constant prices for the entire series. |
| Territorial correction: volume index = 1.00 for the 2007–2016 series. The index is equal to 2.00 for 2017. | Revise the index. Example: use the change in exchange rates as the index of prices and deduct the volume index. | Imports (M), Exports (X) and final consumption at constant prices. |
| Intermediate consumption matrix: – Forestry: excessive intermediate consumption of chemical products, construction, and other market services - Petroleum extraction: consumes nearly 60 percent of total intermediate consumption of telecom products and other market services (excessive) - Agri-food industry: consumes crude petroleum, consumes a fairly large amount of construction and market services Construction/public works: consumes 40 percent of total intermediate consumption of manufactured products and a large number of chemical products (30 percent of total intermediate consumption) - Trade: consumes fishing products - Transport consumes very little fuel, yet this branch should be the largest consumer of fuels. | The base year for the accounts is 2005. Revise the technical coefficients used in the projection. The mission already corrected some intermediate. consumptions and suggested other corrections discussed during the mission. Make corrections to the intermediate expenditures table. | Intermediate consumption, value added, and GDP. |
| The chemical industry branch has a very low value added (VA/P): 8.7 percent, the lowest of all the branches. | The mission corrected the branch intermediate consumption of CPW and transport products. Redo the balances for these products and recalculate the value added of the chemical industries branch. | |
| This item is not included for lack of information. | Provide estimates pending the final account. | Production, value added, and GDP. |
| Fuel is subsidized. No product subsidies are indicated in the accounts. | Indicate the fuel subsidy, even if it is treated as a transfer in the government budget. | Balance of chemical products. |
See Annex on page 18.