2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Solomon Islands

Abstract

2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Solomon Islands

Context

1. Solomon Islands is a small low-income economy reliant on an over-exploited logging industry. Significant progress in rebuilding institutions has been made since the end of the Tensions (1998–2003). But after the end of an IMF program in 2016, the fiscal position deteriorated and cashflow problems emerged.

2. There are substantial development challenges. With the logging industry facing depletion, new sources of growth are needed. Preserving macroeconomic stability, strengthening transparency and governance, improving the business environment, and progressing financial market development are required to support new growth areas and to meet the Sustainable Development Goals (Figure 1, Appendix I). Increased internet connectivity could help generate significant growth opportunities, if harnessed well.

Figure 1.
Figure 1.

Solomon Islands: The Cross-Country Context

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2020, 049; 10.5089/9781513530567.002.A001

3. Governance problems are long standing. They stem from poor management of the logging and newly-emerging mining sectors, a lack of transparency including in Constituency Development Funds (CDFs are payments to MPs for rural development), and weak public financial management (PFM). Governance problems are exacerbated by remoteness, geographical dispersion, a lack of local services provision, and strained capacity. This results in fiscal leakages, weakens growth and undermines stability.

4. The 2019 general election halted much economic activity for four months at the beginning of the year. Voters and Members of Parliament returned to remote constituencies in December 2018 ahead of April’s election, economic activity slowed, and the government was in caretaker mode, limiting spending and revenue collection and halting progress on reforms.

5. The new government took office at end April 2019. The Prime Minister, Mr. Manasseh Sogavare, is an experienced former PM and Minister of Finance; and there is continuity in the Ministry of Finance and Treasury (MOFT) with Mr. Harry Kuma (former Permanent Secretary) appointed as Finance Minister. Since the new government was elected, there have been two main developments. In September 2019, the authorities cut ties with Taiwan Province of China, established diplomatic ties with China and began negotiating for the provision of grants and infrastructure investment. The government’s agenda is also focused on hosting the 2023 Pacific Games (PG) which requires significant investment.

Recent Developments

Economic indicators have been favorable but there are signs of a slowdown in 2019 and strains on the government’s budget are re-emerging.

6. Economic activity held up well in 2018 but growth slowed in 2019. Real GDP growth picked up to 3.9 percent in 2018, boosted by a strong performance in logging, infrastructure spending, fisheries, agriculture, and manufacturing. However, more recently, logging exports have weakened with lower demand from China (Text chart, and Figure 2). The temporary pause in economic activity around the election also subtracted from growth in 2019. Growth is expected to slow to 2.7 percent in 2019.

Figure 2.
Figure 2.

Solomon Islands: Macroeconomic Developments and Outlook

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2020, 049; 10.5089/9781513530567.002.A001

Sources: Country authorities and IMF staff estimates.
uA01fig01

Solomon Islands Goods Exports

(6-month moving average, $ millions)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2020, 049; 10.5089/9781513530567.002.A001

Source: Central Bank of Solomon Islands.

7. The current account deficit (CAD) is widening with higher infrastructure imports. The CAD was around 4.5 percent of GDP in 2018. Exports of logs grew by 20 percent and accounted for more than 70 percent of total exports in 2018. However, import growth outpaced exports, with imports for development-partner-financed infrastructure projects increasing and set to continue in 2019. Reserves import cover fell back but remained comfortable, at 8.5 months in 2018.

8. Fiscal pressures eased in 2018 but are mounting again post-election. In 2018, an overall surplus of 0.6 percent of GDP was recorded due to higher than expected revenues and slower execution of major infrastructure projects, but spending on tertiary scholarships, shipping grants and Constituency Development Funds (CDFs) remained high. The authorities eliminated domestic arrears and rebuilt the broader cash balance to two months of total spending.1 But logging revenues have declined by 15 percent in 2019H1 and other revenues weakened around the election. Notwithstanding excise increases and other revenue measures, revenues overall are likely to be sharply lower this year. Spending has picked up in recent months, with a sharp increase in the public sector payroll and staff project an overall deficit of 2.7 percent of GDP in 2019.

9. Inflation is subdued and credit growth is lackluster alongside weakening activity. Inflation peaked at 4.4 percent at end-2018 partly due to increased excise duties but subsided to 1.7 percent in August 2019. Broad money growth has slowed markedly during 2019, reflecting lower money demand around the election and has reduced the excess liquidity overhang. Credit growth slowed to 4.1 percent growth year-on-year at end of 2018 (Figure 4) and is projected at 4.9 percent in 2019.

Figure 3.
Figure 3.

Solomon Islands: Fiscal indicators

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2020, 049; 10.5089/9781513530567.002.A001

Sources: Country authorities and IMF staff estimates.
Figure 4.
Figure 4.

Solomon Islands: Money and Credit Developments

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2020, 049; 10.5089/9781513530567.002.A001

Sources: Central Bank of Solomon Islands and IMF staff estimates.

10. Financial sector vulnerabilities have eased with the re-establishment of a correspondent banking relationship for a domestic bank (see ¶31). The CBSI has taken actions to strengthen prudential guidelines. NPLs have continued to increase in 2019 to 10.3 percent, amplified by the economic slowdown and delays in government payments, but provisioning has also increased. Profitability is solid, generated by high (and uncompetitive) interest margins (Table 5).2

Table 1.

Solomon Islands: Selected Economic Indicators, 2015–24

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Sources: Data provided by the authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.

Includes disbursements under the IMF-supported programs.

Includes SDR allocations made by the IMF to Solomon Islands in 2009 and actual and prospective disbursements under the IMF-supported programs.

Total spending is defined as total expenditure, excluding grant-funded expenditure.

Table 2a.

Solomon Islands: Summary of Fiscal Accounts, 2016–24

(In millions of Solomon Islands Dollars)

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Sources: Data provided by the Solomon Islands authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.

Includes changes in the stock of unpaid payment orders and unpresented checks (+ = reduction) and the statistical discrepancy.

Defined as total revenue minus recurrent expenditure, excluding grant-funded recurrent expenditure.

Defined as the sum of government deposits held at the CBSI and the commercial banks minus unpaid payment orders and unpresented checks. From 2016 onward, deposits held at the CBSI and the commercial banks have used as a proxy for the narrow cash reserve

Recurrent spending is defined as recurrent expenditure, excluding grant-funded recurrent expenditure.

Broader cash balance=Narrow cash balance+ SIG Deposit Account; Total spending is defined as total expenditure, excluding grant-funded expenditure.

Defined as nonmineral nonlogging revenue (excludes grants) minus government-funded spending excluding interest payments.

Table 2b.

Solomon Islands: Summary of Fiscal Accounts, 2016–24

(in percent of GDP)

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Sources: Data provided by the Solomon Islands authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.

Includes changes in the stock of unpaid payment orders and unpresented checks (+ = reduction) and the statistical discrepancy.

Defined as total revenue minus recurrent expenditure, excluding grant-funded recurrent expenditure.

Defined as nonmineral nonlogging revenue (excludes grants) minus government-funded spending excluding interest payments.

Table 3.

Solomon Islands: Balance of Payments, 2015–241

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Sources: Data provided by the Solomon Islands authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.

Incorporates the authorities’ revision of historical data, including a new formula for f.o.b/c.i.f conversion, new estimates of reinvested earnings and donor grants, and reclassification of current and capital transfers.

FDI numbers have been revised down as a result of changes to ensure the correct treatment of net losses under reinvested

Includes actual and prospective disbursements under the IMF-supported arrangement.

Table 4.

Solomon Islands: Summary Accounts of the Banking System, 2015–241

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Sources: Data provided by the Central Bank of Solomon Islands; and IMF staff estimates and projections.

Based on actual and projected exchange rates.

Includes claims of the CBSI on other (nonbank) financial corporations.

Weighted average of different maturities, period average.