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Prepared by Takuma Hisanaga (APD).
The total fertility rate in a specific year is defined as the total number of children that would be born to each woman if she were to live to the end of her child-bearing years and give birth to children in alignment with the prevailing age-specific fertility rates. This indicator is measured in children per woman. See OECD (2019).
See NIPSSR (2015).
This rate is based on the planned number of children for a couple, as well as other statistics including the share of single people who hope to marry and the desired number of children of single people.
Among the previous studies of the fertility rate in Japan, Abe and Harada (2008) observed that, based on a cross-section analysis of municipal-level data, a rise in female wages had a negative impact on the fertility rate, and that the impact of improved availability of childcare facilities on the fertility rate was positive. Kato (2018) also analyzed municipal-level data to find a positive impact of the female labor participation rate on the total fertility rate.
As the National Census is a quinquennial survey, values for gap years are filled by linear interpolation.
See also Box 2 of International Monetary Fund (2019) Japan: Article IV Consultation—Staff Report, for a case study of the experience of Nagi-town in Okayama Prefecture.