The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia: 2019 Article IV Consultation and Request for Three-year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility and an Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility—Informational Annex

2019 Article IV Consultation and Requests for Three-Year Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility and an Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release and Staff Report

Abstract

2019 Article IV Consultation and Requests for Three-Year Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility and an Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release and Staff Report

Relations with the Fund

(As of October 31, 2019) Membership Status: Joined: December 27, 1945 Article XIV

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Latest Financial Arrangements:

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Overdue Obligations and Projected Payments to Fund 2

(SDR Million; based on existing use of resources and present holdings of SDRs):

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Implementation of Catastrophe Containment and Relief (CCR): Not Applicable

As of February 4, 2015, the post-Catastrophe Debt Relief Trust has been transformed to the Catastrophe Containment and Relief (CCR) Trust.

Exchange Rate Arrangement

Since July 2018 the birr followed a depreciating trend within a 2 percent band against the U.S. dollar. Accordingly, the de-facto exchange rate arrangement was reclassified as “crawl-like” from “stabilized” arrangement, effective July 27, 2018. The authorities describe their exchange rate regime as a managed float with no predetermined path for the exchange rate. The pace of depreciation of the nominal exchange rate, however, has recently increased. The NBE continues to supply foreign exchange to the interbank market based on plans prepared at the beginning of each fiscal year, which take into account estimates of supply and demand. The transaction-weighted average interbank market exchange rate as of November 19, 2019, is Br 29.8372 = US$1. Ethiopia maintains four restrictions on payments and transfers for current international transactions, which relate to: (i) the tax certification requirement for repatriation of dividend and other investment income; (ii) restrictions on repayment of legal external loans and suppliers of foreign partners credits; (iii) the prioritization and rationing of foreign exchange to certain imports of goods and services, debt payments and invisibles, and (iv) the requirement to provide a clearance certificate from the NBE to obtain import permits. These restrictions are inconsistent with Article VIII, Section 2(a), of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement and remain unapproved. In October 2017, the NBE introduced a requirement for all commercial banks to surrender 30 percent of their gross foreign exchange inflows to the central bank. The requirement is not assessed to give rise to an exchange restriction.

Safeguards Assessment

The National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) was subject to an update safeguards assessment in 2009 (previous assessment was completed in 2001). The updated assessment found improved financial reporting and internal audit practices. Notwithstanding these developments, the assessment noted significant weaknesses. Recommendations focused on strengthening oversight of risks and controls, improving accounting records and the external audit process, and legal amendments to address safeguards weaknesses in the Central Bank Law. Since then, some progress has been reported on the outstanding safeguards recommendations, particularly the establishment of an audit committee, and capacity building for the internal audit function. Staff has recently received audited financial statements for the previous years together with the management letters issued by the NBE’s external auditor up to fiscal year 2016/17. A full set of the finalized audited financial statements has now been published on the NBE’s website. The finalization of the financial report for 2017/18 and the associated audit report has been delayed due to the adoption of IFRS-compliant reporting standards. The NBE expects to post these once the audit has been completed.

Article IV Consultation

Ethiopia is on the standard 12-month consultation cycle, in accordance with the Decision on Article IV Consultation Cycles (Decision No, 14747-(10/96), 9/28/2010). The last consultation was concluded on November 30, 2018.

Technical Assistance (FY2019–present)

Ethiopia is rated as a high intensity TA recipient, with most provided through the regional center in East Africa. In FY 2019 Ethiopia received 39 TA missions. Ongoing and planned HQ TA focuses on tax policy and administration, PFM, improvements in statistics, financial development and central bank operations. With respect to external sector statistics, Ethiopia is part of the 5-year UK DFID funded Enhanced Data Dissemination Initiative 2 (EDDI2) Project for balance of payments module 1, which ends in 2020. As part of this project by way of sustained TAs and regional workshops, the NBE has started improving the coverage and quality of external sector statistics.

Recently, a long-term resident expert (LTX), funded by DfID, was placed at the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) to [provide advice, training and strengthen capacity in modernizing central banking operations, and developing functioning foreign exchange and government securities markets.) The LTX’s work is expected to be supplemented by targeted TA provided by short-term experts. At the authorities’ request, the Fund continues to provide TA on tax policy and revenue administration reforms to support revenue mobilization efforts, including by streamlining tax expenditures. New TA will also be provided in calendar year 2020 on the development of a public sector balance sheet, and public investment management. Future TA could also address weaknesses in data reporting to the fund, with a particular focus on improving the reliability and comprehensiveness of national accounts, fiscal data, and monetary and financial statistics and enhance the transparent dissemination of key economic statistics.

Table 1.

The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia: Fund Technical Assistance

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Resident Representative: Jules Leichter was appointed as IMF Resident Representative to Ethiopia in March 2019.

Joint Management Action Plan, July 2019–June 2020

(As of October 31, 2019)

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Statistical Issues

(As of November 19, 2019)

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Table 1.

The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance

(As of November 19, 2019)

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Any reserve assets that are pledged of otherwise encumbered should be specified separately. Also, data should comprise short-term liabilities linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means as well as the notional values of financial derivatives to pay and to receive foreign currency, including those linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means.

The authorities provide aggregate balance sheet items but not detailed enough for proper financial stability analysis.

Both market-based and officially determined, including discount rates, money market rates, and rates on treasury bills, notes, and bonds.

Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.

The general government consists of the central government and local governments.

Including currency and maturity composition.

Reflecting capacity constraints which the authorities are addressing through technical assistance.

1

Formerly PRGF

2

When a member has overdue financial obligations outstanding for more than three months, the amount of such arrears will be shown in this section.

3

Assistance committed under the original framework is expressed in net present value (NPV) terms at the completion point, and assistance committed under the enhanced framework is expressed in NPV terms at the decision point. Hence, these two amounts cannot be added.

4

Under the enhanced framework, an additional disbursement is made at the completion point corresponding to interest income earned on the amount committed at the decision point but not disbursed during the interim period.

5

The MDRI provided 100 percent debt relief to eligible member countries that qualified for the assistance. Grant assistance from the MDRI Trust and HIPC resources provide debt relief to cover the full stock of debt owed to the Fund as of end-2004 that remains outstanding at the time the member qualifies for such debt relief.

The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia: 2019 Article IV Consultation and Requests for Three-Year Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility and an Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release and Staff Report
Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.