Gabon: Selected Issues
Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Publication Date:
23 Dec 2019
eISBN:
9781513524481
ISBN:
9781513524481
Language:
English
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Gabon; spending; governance; revenue; epidemiological profile; cash-transfer program; ese authorities; du Gabon; Education spending
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Selected Issues

Abstract

Selected Issues

Achieving Equitable Fiscal Consolidation1

Despite progress in recent years, much more remains to be done to improve Gabon’s social indicators and reduce poverty. Fiscal policy can serve as a crucial tool for achieving this outcome by creating additional space for social spending and improving expenditure efficiency. This will require increasing domestic revenue, restraining non-priority spending and greater use of performance targets in resource allocation decision-making.

A. Background

1. Although declining, poverty remains high in Gabon. In 2018, per capita GDP was US$9,100, about 24 percent below its level in 1998 (Figure 1). Almost one-third of the population still lives with less than $5.50 per day (Figure 2), slightly above the average for countries with the same level of income (Figure 3). Poverty is particularly widespread in rural areas, where more than half of the population lives below the poverty line.

Figure 1.
Figure 1.

Gabon: GDP per Capital

(Constant 2010 US$)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 390; 10.5089/9781513524481.002.A003

Source: WDI.
Figure 2.
Figure 2.

Gabon: Poverty Headcount at National Poverty Line 2005 and 2017

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 390; 10.5089/9781513524481.002.A003

Figure 3.
Figure 3.

International Comparison (2017) Poverty Headcount Ratio at $5.50 per Day

(Percent)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 390; 10.5089/9781513524481.002.A003

2. The high level of poverty reflects predominantly subdued growth. Long standing and deep domestic institutional and structural weaknesses, including weak governance and economic diversification, and poor business environment have constrained growth. Over the last two decades (2000-18), real GDP grew on average by 2.2 percent in Gabon, much lower than in CEMAC and upper-middle-income countries (Figure 4). It is worth noting that Gabon’s Gini coefficient is at the same level as that for its income peers (Figure 5).2

Figure 4.
Figure 4.

Real GDP Growth Comparison, Average 2000-18

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 390; 10.5089/9781513524481.002.A003

Sources: Country authorities and IMF staff estimates.
Figure 5.
Figure 5.

Gini Coefficient, Latest Available

(0-100, where 0=perfect equality)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 390; 10.5089/9781513524481.002.A003

Source: World Development Indicators, April 2018.

3. Low social spending and efficiency has also hindered poverty reduction. Despite the significant increase in public health spending after the implementation of the national health insurance system in 2008, total expenditure on education, social protection, and health represent only 20 percent of the total budget, which is low compared with Gabon’s peers. In addition, efficiency of social spending is low.

4. Several Studies have found evidence that spending on education and health has been a significant driver of inclusive growth.3 Expansion of access to quality basic education and health services are found to be associated with increases in human capital stock and decreases in inequality in education and health outcomes. This, in turn, increases productivity and growth and reduces inequality of opportunity and income (IMF, 2017).

5. Some studies also found social spending to be important for achieving inclusive growth.4 5 There is statistical evidence that redistributing income from higher-income to lower-income groups directly decreases income inequality. While there is evidence that fiscal redistribution does not necessarily harm growth, redistributive fiscal policies need to be carefully designed to minimize the efficiency costs associated with redistributive tax and transfer policies. Social protection can also contribute directly to inclusive growth through making lower-income groups more resilient to economic shocks and promoting investments through addressing liquidity constraints. Furthermore, social protection can be instrumental in promoting growth, helping to build public support for macroeconomic and growth-enhancing structural reforms by protecting vulnerable groups from any adverse short-term impacts of such reforms.

6. Increasing the level and efficiency of social spending is needed to generate higher and more inclusive growth. As expressed in the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), poverty reduction (social) spending—defined as social protection, health and education spending—is a key policy lever for promoting inclusive growth, addressing inequality, protecting vulnerable groups during structural change and adjustment, smoothing consumption over the life-cycle, and stabilizing demand during economic shocks.6 The challenge for policy makers, therefore, is how, in the face of the tight fiscal position, to create the fiscal space required to meet Gabon’s large social spending needs.

B. Reprioritization of Government Spending

7. Creating fiscal space for additional social spending. This will require increasing domestic revenue, restraining non-priority spending. On the revenue side, policy measures should focus on broadening the tax base and enhancing revenue administrations. On the expenditure side, despite recent decline, spending and particularly the wage bill remains high than the average for upper-middle-income countries (UMIC). In Gabon, the wage bill represented about 44 percent of domestic revenue in 2018. On the one hand, this observation may reflect the government’s willingness to redistribute the country’s oil wealth through public sector wages and salaries. On the other hand, it reflects both the large size of the public sector and the ability of public servants to negotiate higher salaries. In this context, Gabon could benefit from redirecting budget resources away from the wage bill towards more productive uses, including social spending. In other words, there is scope to promote inclusive growth by redistributing the country’s oil wealth directly through boosting poverty-related spending, instead of indirectly via the wage bill.

Figure 6.
Figure 6.

Gabon: Total Revenue and Expenditure

(Percent of GDP)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 390; 10.5089/9781513524481.002.A003

Sources: Gabon ese authorities and IMF staff estimates.
Figure 7.
Figure 7.

Gabon: Evolution of Government Spending, 2010-18

(Pecent of GDP)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 390; 10.5089/9781513524481.002.A003

Sources: Gabonese authorities and IMF staff estimates.
Figure 8.
Figure 8.

Upper Middle-Income Countries: Comparison of Total Expenditure, 2018 or Latest

(Percent of Total Revenue)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 390; 10.5089/9781513524481.002.A003

Source: GPS.
Figure 9.
Figure 9.

Upper Middle-Income Countries: Comparison of Wage Bill, 2018 or Latest

(Percent of Total Revenue)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 390; 10.5089/9781513524481.002.A003

Source: GPS.

8. If social spending is a key priority for Gabon, the authorities should ensure that it is given adequate emphasis in their expenditure planning and budgeting processes. Over the last decade, several governments in both advanced and developing countries looking to alter the sectoral allocation and the impact of public expenditure have made effective use of two public financial management tools:

  • Frequent expenditure reviews. Expenditure reviews designed to improve the efficiency of public expenditure and to create fiscal space on the expenditure side of the budget have become a regular feature of the budget process in many countries, including in developing economies. Gabon stands to gain from emulating this practice.

  • Medium-term expenditure frameworks (MTEFs). MTEFs enable governments to “lock in” savings identified in lower productivity/priority sectors and reallocate them to higher productivity/priority sectors over a period of years. They are now a common feature of budgeting systems in Africa and several countries have made effective use of them to alter the sectoral allocation of expenditure over a number of years. Again, Gabon stands to gain from adopting this initiative.

C. Assessing Efficiency of Social Sector Expenditure in Gabon

9. Beyond the analysis of the level and decline in spending, identification of possible savings or reallocations requires an assessment of efficiency. More efficient public spending will create budgetary room to increase social spending without widening the fiscal deficit. Thus, a more efficient delivery of public services will yield better outcomes for a given cost, or the same quality of outcome at a lower cost. To this end, this section assesses social and economic outcomes in each spending area against the performance in upper-middle-income countries. We examine broad indicators of efficiency of public expenditure in key social spending areas to gauge potential efficiency gains and possible savings.

Health

To improve health outcomes Gabon should strengthen the allocative efficiency notably by investing more in preventive care and implementing performance-based financing.

10. While it has increased in recent years, public health spending remains relatively low. Public health spending more than doubled between 2008 and 2018, driven by the rollout of the national health insurance system,7 but Gabon still spends less on public health than its peers (Figure 10).

11. Nevertheless, rising expenditure levels have not been matched by commensurate improvements in health indicators. In 2016, average life expectancy at birth was 58 years (Figure 11). The under-five mortality rate is 65 deaths per 1,000 births, well above the level of Gabon’s comparator countries (Figure 12). Likewise, the maternal mortality rate is well above the level of Gabon’s peers (Figure 13).

Figure 10.
Figure 10.

Total Health Expenditure, 2018 or Latest

(Percent of GDP)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 390; 10.5089/9781513524481.002.A003

Source: WDI.
Figure 11.
Figure 11.

Healthy Life Expectancy at Birth

(2010 Compared with 2016)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 390; 10.5089/9781513524481.002.A003

Source: HALE.
Figure 12.
Figure 12.

Infant Mortality Rate Versus Per Capital Health Expenditure

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 390; 10.5089/9781513524481.002.A003

Source: UNESCO’s database from 2010 to 2015 (Gabon 2012).
Figure 13.
Figure 13.

Maternal Mortality Versus Per Capita Health Expenditure

(Upper-Mideie-lacorrie Countries)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 390; 10.5089/9781513524481.002.A003

Source : UNESCO’s database from 2010 to 20 15 (Gabon 2012).

12. Efficiency of Gabon’s health spending, where data is available, is also low relative to its income peers. The efficiency assessment using the IMF expenditure assessment tool (Figure 14).8 The health efficiency frontier allows to examine the scope for improvements in health spending effectiveness. The chart plots Healthy Life Expectancy (HALE) as output on the vertical axis and total health expenditure per capita on the horizontal axis. The distance to the efficiency frontier, which is a best practice frontier, provides information on the loss in HALE due to health system inefficiencies. For spending on health, where data is available, Gabon is far from the frontier. The distance to the frontier also informs on potential savings without compromising health outcomes. The bigger the distance to the efficiency frontier, the more inefficient a country is in providing health services. As can be seen in Figure 14, Gabon is not only spending less than its comparators, its efficiency frontier is far below that of the emerging economies (EMs).

Figure 14.
Figure 14.

Gabon: Health Expenditure

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 390; 10.5089/9781513524481.002.A003

Sources: IMF FAD E xpenditure Assessment Tool (EAT), World Bank, World Health Organization.1/ Dashlines are the average of CEMAC.

13. Delivering quality outcomes is key. Tackling health system inefficiencies holds great potential for creating fiscal space and accommodating demands for additional health spending in Gabon. Indeed, simply increasing public expenditure in the health sector may not significantly affect health outcomes given that the efficiency of this spending is low. According to the World Bank’s public expenditure review, it is important to:9

  • Reorient expenditures toward preventive care; currently, about 80 percent of health resources are devoted to curative care, which contributes less than 10 percent to improvements in health indicators. By contrast, preventive care and public outreach account for only about 20 percent of health spending, yet they contribute more than 60 percent to improvements in indicators targeted under the 2017-21 National Health Development Plan (Plan National de Développement Sanitaire, PNDS). The distribution of health spending does not reflect either Gabon’s epidemiological profile or the demographic distribution of its population.

  • improve the efficiency and distributional equity of sectoral resources by (i) operationalizing health districts; (ii) improving referral systems; (iii) strengthen pharmaceutical management; (iv) developing transparent criteria for allocating resources; (v) establishing oversight mechanisms for the implementation of investment plans; and (vi) creating more efficient budget-management and incentive systems.

14. Enhancing the quality of primary care facilities could reduce costs by encouraging patients to seek treatment at the appropriate level of the health system. Patients routinely bypass underfunded and understaffed primary care clinics in favor of hospitals. Strengthening the primary care system could alleviate the burden on hospitals and lower overall costs, both for the health system and for patients. Other efficiency-enhancing measures include the adoption of innovative techniques such as performance-based financing (PBF).

15. The government should increase funding for health-facility maintenance and public outreach and convert standard budget lines to performance-based payments. The current health budget is based on distributing the available resources, and it does not adequately reflect demand for services or health outcomes. Consequently, operations, maintenance, and public outreach are systematically underfunded, and there are significant disparities in per capita health spending across regions. Introducing PBF principles, including direct transfers to service providers based on results achieved, would help increase value for money in health spending.

Education

The education sector would benefit from a greater allocation to primary and secondary and a more efficient administration.1011

16. Gabon’s public education outcomes are below what the country’s level of per capita GDP and public spending would predict (Figures 15-18). Despite significant progress at the primary level, an inadequate supply of human and physical capital and an excessive emphasis on higher education contribute to low completion rates and high repetition rates. Gabon spends less on education than many comparable upper-middle-income countries (Figure 19), and the overall allocation of public education spending in Gabon is regressive. While public spending at the primary level appears to be pro-poor, there is evidence that it is regressive at the secondary and tertiary levels. Although girls outperform boys in the overall education system, girls from very poor households are underrepresented in tertiary education.

17. Investing in teacher training could improve the technical efficiency of education spending by reducing repetition and dropout rates. Building the human capital of teachers would improve the quality of basic education and enhance the coordination of curricula between education cycles, improving the rate at which students successfully transfer to upper-secondary and tertiary education. Better-trained teachers could also more accurately identify students at risk of dropping out and intervene as needed. Extending the school year and strengthening school governance could complement increased teacher training.

18. Concerted policy reforms will be necessary to improve secondary education, higher education, and technical and vocational education and training (TVET). The authorities should work to improve the governance of public TVET and higher-education institutions. Expanding the role of the private sector could help to increase the quality of higher education and TVET by aligning curricula with the needs of employers, establishing internship, and developing dual-training programs. Private education providers should be encouraged to invest further in upper-secondary and tertiary education within an appropriate regulatory framework. Given Gabon’s improving level of internet connectivity, the government should explore innovative education strategies such as distance-learning initiatives.

19. Measures to enhance public administration and personnel management would yield especially positive results in the education sector. Assigning staff to specific programs would help teachers focus on priority activities and improve the deployment of human resources. In addition, developing a comprehensive education management information system backed by robust statistical data could provide vital information to guide future policy decisions.

20. The government should boost public education spending and increase the share of spending devoted to primary and secondary education. Gabon’s spending on education is relatively low, compared with its peers. The authorities could create additional fiscal space by improving the allocative and technical efficiency of education spending. At present, most public education spending goes to the upper-secondary and tertiary levels. Underspending at the primary and lower-secondary levels, and among TVET institutions, reduces both the quantity and quality of basic education services. As many higher-education institutions would be viable without public support, increased private-sector involvement at this level could allow policymakers to reallocate scarce public resources to primary and lower-secondary education and TVET.

Figure 15.
Figure 15.

Completion Rates at Primary, Lower Secondary, and Upper Secondary Education Levels

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 390; 10.5089/9781513524481.002.A003

Figure 16.
Figure 16.

Education Spending and Completion Rates at Primary Education Level

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 390; 10.5089/9781513524481.002.A003

Figure 17.
Figure 17.

Education Spending and Completion Rates at Lower Secondary Education Level

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 390; 10.5089/9781513524481.002.A003

Figure 18.
Figure 18.

Education Spending and Completion Rates at Upper Secondary Education Level

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 390; 10.5089/9781513524481.002.A003

Figure 19.
Figure 19.

Public Educa tion Expenditure, 2018 or Latest

(Perce nt of GDP)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 390; 10.5089/9781513524481.002.A003

Source: WDI.

Social Protection

The Social Protection system, despite having all the necessary components, remains fragmented and inefficient and often fails to reach its intended beneficiaries.1213

21. Although Gabon’s social protection system contains all the necessary components to help households manage risk, it is inefficient, underfinanced, and covers only a small fraction of the poor. While non-contributory programs, including public health insurance and cash transfers, are essential to reduce poverty, their current funding level is insufficient to meet the objectives of Gabon’s Human Investment Strategy (Strategie d’Investissement Human du Gabon, SIHG). Meanwhile, spending on pensions is rising, even though pension beneficiaries are disproportionately non-poor and much fewer than beneficiaries of non-contributory programs.

22. Funds for social assistance have been sometime used arbitrarily, resulting in significant inefficiencies and inequities. Contrary to what is envisaged in the SIHG, subsidies account for 89 percent of expenditures devoted to supporting “economically weak Gabonese” (Gabonais économiquement faible, GEF) households, while cash transfers represent only 10 percent. No cash transfers were made to GEF households in recent years except for two small, short-term programs. In addition, most safety-net programs were only available in Libreville and Estuaire Province, and only four out of fourteen programs reached the rest of the country.

23. Non-contributory programs are highly fragmented. The SIHG contains 19 different social protection programs designed for seven specific vulnerable groups. These programs range from cash and in-kind transfers to fee exemptions and water and electricity subsidies. Adopting a systemic approach in coordination with other sectors could improve implementation efficiency.

24. Better targeting would enhance the impact of non-contributory social protection programs on poverty reduction. To increase the share of resources that reach GEF households, the authorities should: (i) update the poverty line based on data from the 2017 household budget survey; (ii) create a new methodology to identify vulnerable households based on consumption levels and living standards; (iii) determine the instruments used to classify beneficiary households and verify their status; (iv) produce an implementation manual that clearly defines the responsibilities of different parties and describes grievance and redress mechanisms; (v) restructure the GEF database to include socioeconomic indicators of vulnerability; and (vi) ensure that the information for each household in the GEF database is unique and complete.

25. Consolidating and modernizing social transfer programs could boost their efficiency. The government should begin by merging programs of the same type: for example, the eight cash-transfer programs should be consolidated into one, and the “newborn kit” should be monetized and merged with the cash-transfer program. Leveraging modern technologies to transfer money, such as cell phones and ATM cards, could further increase technical efficiency.

26. Social protection programs should promote self-reliance and facilitate households’ transition out of poverty. The design of the current GEF database does not reflect the expectation that households will eventually escape poverty, and it does not contain the information necessary to reclassify households that do. The authorities should: (i) determine when GEF households are eligible for special assistance in transitioning out of poverty; (ii) ensure that households participating in entrepreneurship programs receive regular cash transfers that allow them to stabilize their consumption as they build microenterprises; (iii) provide frequent and regular technical and psychological assistance to beneficiaries; and (iv) develop a robust monitoring system based on objective indicators.

D. Conclusion

27. While Gabon’s social indicators have improved in recent years relative to its income peers, much more remains to be done to reduce poverty. Fiscal policy can serve as a crucial tool for achieving this outcome by creating additional space for social spending and improving expenditure efficiency. To improve resource allocation and efficiency, greater use of performance targets in resource allocation decision-making is needed. It will be important to take steps to increase both the level and efficiency of social spending to improve social outcomes and achieve a higher and more inclusive growth.

References

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1

Koffie Nassar, David Elmaleh (World Bank), Justine Lekogo (former Local Economist in Gabon), and Ashan Rodriguez (former Research Assistant in AFR).

2

However, it is not possible to ascertain whether inequality has risen during the last decade, due to lack of data.

4

See IMF Policy Paper: A Strategy for IMF Engagement on Social Spending (June 2019).

5

See for example Ostry, Berg, and Tsangarides, 2014; Clements and others, 2015; Atkinson, 2015; and IMF, 2017.

6

See IMF Policy Paper: A Strategy for IMF Engagement on Social Spending (June 2019).

7

See World Bank, 2017.

8

Figure 14 is generated by the Expenditure Assessment Tool (EAT) designed by the Fiscal Affairs Department at IMF. The information EAT provides is useful in the evaluation of government spending and in the identification of areas where there may be room to increase spending efficiency or rationalize spending. The evaluation is done through benchmarking of spending—levels, composition and outcomes—against regional and income comparators.

9

World Bank, “Gabon - Revue des Dépenses Publiques ;” 2017.

10

See World Bank, 2017.

11

The EAT results are not available, due to lack of data.

12

See World Bank, 2017.

13

The EAT results are not available, due to lack of data.

Same Series

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Gabon: Selected Issues
Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2019: Issue 390
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
9781513524481
ISSN:
1934-7685
Pages:
65
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513524481.002
  • View in gallery

    Gabon: GDP per Capital

    (Constant 2010 US$)

  • View in gallery

    Gabon: Poverty Headcount at National Poverty Line 2005 and 2017

  • View in gallery

    International Comparison (2017) Poverty Headcount Ratio at $5.50 per Day

    (Percent)

  • View in gallery

    Real GDP Growth Comparison, Average 2000-18

  • View in gallery

    Gini Coefficient, Latest Available

    (0-100, where 0=perfect equality)

  • View in gallery

    Gabon: Total Revenue and Expenditure

    (Percent of GDP)

  • View in gallery

    Gabon: Evolution of Government Spending, 2010-18

    (Pecent of GDP)

  • View in gallery

    Upper Middle-Income Countries: Comparison of Total Expenditure, 2018 or Latest

    (Percent of Total Revenue)

  • View in gallery

    Upper Middle-Income Countries: Comparison of Wage Bill, 2018 or Latest

    (Percent of Total Revenue)

  • View in gallery

    Total Health Expenditure, 2018 or Latest

    (Percent of GDP)

  • View in gallery

    Healthy Life Expectancy at Birth

    (2010 Compared with 2016)

  • View in gallery

    Infant Mortality Rate Versus Per Capital Health Expenditure

  • View in gallery

    Maternal Mortality Versus Per Capita Health Expenditure

    (Upper-Mideie-lacorrie Countries)

  • View in gallery

    Gabon: Health Expenditure

  • View in gallery

    Completion Rates at Primary, Lower Secondary, and Upper Secondary Education Levels

  • View in gallery

    Education Spending and Completion Rates at Primary Education Level

  • View in gallery

    Education Spending and Completion Rates at Lower Secondary Education Level

  • View in gallery

    Education Spending and Completion Rates at Upper Secondary Education Level

  • View in gallery

    Public Educa tion Expenditure, 2018 or Latest

    (Perce nt of GDP)

Gabon: GDP per Capital

(Constant 2010 US$)

Gabon: Poverty Headcount at National Poverty Line 2005 and 2017

International Comparison (2017) Poverty Headcount Ratio at $5.50 per Day

(Percent)

Real GDP Growth Comparison, Average 2000-18

Gini Coefficient, Latest Available

(0-100, where 0=perfect equality)

Gabon: Total Revenue and Expenditure

(Percent of GDP)

Gabon: Evolution of Government Spending, 2010-18

(Pecent of GDP)

Upper Middle-Income Countries: Comparison of Total Expenditure, 2018 or Latest

(Percent of Total Revenue)

Upper Middle-Income Countries: Comparison of Wage Bill, 2018 or Latest

(Percent of Total Revenue)

Total Health Expenditure, 2018 or Latest

(Percent of GDP)

Healthy Life Expectancy at Birth

(2010 Compared with 2016)

Infant Mortality Rate Versus Per Capital Health Expenditure

Maternal Mortality Versus Per Capita Health Expenditure

(Upper-Mideie-lacorrie Countries)

Gabon: Health Expenditure

Completion Rates at Primary, Lower Secondary, and Upper Secondary Education Levels

Education Spending and Completion Rates at Primary Education Level

Education Spending and Completion Rates at Lower Secondary Education Level

Education Spending and Completion Rates at Upper Secondary Education Level

Public Educa tion Expenditure, 2018 or Latest

(Perce nt of GDP)