Maldives: Staff Report for the 2012 Article IV Consultation—Informational Annex

2012 Article IV Consultation-Public Information Notice; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Maldives

Abstract

2012 Article IV Consultation-Public Information Notice; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Maldives

Fund Relations

(As of December 31, 2012)

Membership Status: Joined: January 13, 1978; Article XIV

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Projected Payments to Fund 1

(SDR million; based on existing use of resources and present holdings of SDRs):

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When a member has overdue financial obligations outstanding for more than three months, the amount of such arrears will be shown in this section.

Exchange Arrangements

From March 1, 1982 to June 30, 1985, the Maldivian rufiyaa was pegged to the U.S. dollar. Beginning in July 1985, the exchange rate of the rufiyaa was linked to a trade-weighted basket of currencies, but the exchange rate vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar remained relatively stable until February 1987. On March 1, 1987, the rufiyaa was devalued by 29 percent vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar. From 1987 to 1994, the exchange rate of the rufiyaa was adjusted periodically. Since October 1994, the exchange rate of the rufiyaa remained unchanged at Rf 11.77 per U.S. dollar, until July 25, 2001, when the rufiyaa was devalued to Rf 12.80 per U.S. dollar. Since April 2011, the rufiyaa has officially floated in a band of 20 percent on either side of Rf 12.85 per dollar. In practice, however, the rufiyaa has been virtually fixed at the band’s weaker end of Rf 15.42 per dollar. Maldives continues to avail itself of the transitional provisions of Article XIV, and has not yet accepted the obligations of Article VIII, Sections 2, 3, and 4. It maintains an exchange restriction subject to IMF approval under Article VIII, Sections 2(a) of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, arising from the MMA’s policy of rationing its supply of foreign exchange to commercial banks. This rationing by a governmental agency has caused the channeling of foreign exchange transactions for current international transactions to the parallel market where transactions take place at an exchange rate that deviates by more than 2 percent from the official exchange rate. The greater-than-2-percent exchange-rate spread gives rise to a multiple currency practice subject to IMF approval under Article VIII, Section 3 and also to an exchange restriction given the additional cost involved for obtaining foreign exchange.

Last Article IV Consultation

The 2010 Article IV consultation was concluded by the Executive Board on February 14, 2011.

Technical Assistance

  • FAD: In May 2007, a mission conducted a diagnostic review of tax and tariff policy and administration. In October 2008 and April 2009, a series of PFM missions provided peripatetic support for the design and implementation of a new government integrated financial management information system (GIFMIS). A joint mission with the World Bank visited Malé in April–May 2009 to complete a PEFA assessment. A TA mission on tax administration and tax policy took place in September 2010. The mission focused on existing and planned tax administration reforms and the extent of preparedness for new tax regimes. In October 2010, a cash management and fiscal reporting TA mission overlapped with Article IV mission. The mission focused on budgetary management and fiscal accounting and reporting. In December 2011, two missions, one on a follow-up mission on tax administration and the other on assessing the organizational structure, staffing, remuneration and management of Maldives Ministry of Finance (MoFT) took place.

  • LEG: In October 2003, Mr. Head provided assistance on the revision of the Maldives Monetary Authority Act (MMA Act). A series of missions (March and September 2005, and April 2006) were provided to revamp the banking law. In August 2009, a mission provided assistance on the MMA Act (jointly with MCM). An AML/CFT assessment mission took place in October 2010. A follow-up mission in February 2011 focused on payments law.

  • MCM: Two missions visited in 2006 on monetary operations, financial market development, and banking issues. In 2007, a series of mission were provided on debt management, monetary policy and financial supervision. In 2008, three missions visited on monetary operations and liquidity management, monetary policy and financial supervision issues. In November 2008 and March/May/August 2009, a series of mission were provided on research capacity building, bank supervision, monetary policy and the MMA act. Two missions visited Malé to advise on monetary operations, liquidity management, and the development of a crisis management framework. In December 2010, MCM conducted a TA mission on crisis preparedness and management, bank restructuring, and monetary operations. In May and September 2011, MCM consecutively conducted missions on the development of debt markets, and on on-site banking supervision. In February 2012, MCM undertook a TA mission on assessing the foreign exchange operations framework.

  • STA: In November 2005, TA was given on monetary and banking issues. In April 2006, STA provided advice on government finance statistics. In January 2007, STA provided advice on balance of payments statistics. In May 2007, STA conducted a mission on money and banking statistics. In February and April 2011, STA offered TA on multiple topics covering improvements in balance of payments statistics, government financial statistics (GFS), monetary and financial statistics (MFS) and national accounts. In June and September 2011, STA conducted TA missions on improving price statistics and on the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS). In February and May 2012 STA continued providing TA on improving price statistics. Similarly, in April 2012, a TA mission on improving national accounts covered constructing GDP from the expenditure side and compiling quarterly national accounts. Advice on publishing GDP revisions was provided in November 2012.

Safeguards Assessment

A safeguards assessment of MMA was concluded in March 2010. In line with staff recommendations, the MMA has appointed an external auditor, and strengthened controls over foreign payments through the automation of the authorization process. The authorities also indicated that they are planning to appoint an internal auditor shortly. In addition, a new MMA Act is under development with IMF technical assistance to strengthen the MMA’s legal framework.

Joint Management Action Plan1

(As of December 2012)

World Bank

International Monetary Fund

Further to the FY08–12 Country Assistance Strategy framing the Bank Group’s involvement in Maldives and the CAS progress report of 2010, an Interim Strategy Note for the period FY13–14 is being prepared, scheduled for Board consideration in Q4 FY13. In view of the current macroeconomic environment in the country, the upcoming ISN will propose a selective program of engagement, likely focused on Public Financial Management, education and renewable energy.

The IMF’s blended program approved by the Executive Board in December 2009 went off-track by mid-2010 and formally expired at the end of 2012. The authorities have expressed interest in renewing their program engagement with the IMF, possibly through a Staff Monitored Program. The core of the policy framework is a strong fiscal adjustment to contain aggregate demand and put public finances back on a sustainable path in the medium-term, complemented by devaluation and monetary tightening.

The teams have been holding, and will continue to hold, joint missions and regular briefing meetings on macroeconomic developments. Public financial management is a key area of collaboration for these operations as is utility pricing and social protection, where the Bank is taking the lead on a number of initiatives aimed at improving targeting. The World Bank is also carrying out an important fiscal sustainability technical assistance in FY13 aimed at improving capacity at the Ministry of Finance on budget formulation, cash flow projections and medium term budget framework. This work is carried out in close collaboration with the IMF, which also has a stream of PFM-related TA planned. The Bank is taking the lead on PFM issues, while the IMF focuses on tax issues (e.g., support for implementation of a Goods and Services Tax) and on preparations for a Fiscal Responsibility Law. The Bank will continue to support implementation of a credible MTEF and is undertaking analytical work on the structure of the foreign exchange market together with providing technical assistance supporting the development and implementation of the Government’s tourism development plan. The Appendix details the macro-critical activities that the Bank and IMF will work on over the coming year.

Appendix. Maldives IMF-World Bank Joint Management Action Plan

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Relations with the Asian Development Bank

(As of November 30, 2012)1

Asian Development Bank’s Strategy

Since the Country Partnership Strategy (CPS), 2007–11, the Asian Development Bank (AsDB) had taken a sequential approach to the provision of AsDB support to the Maldives. AsDB would first concentrate on providing much-needed capacity development assistance, after which it would move to the second phase of assistance to resume investment lending. In 2011, AsDB developed an interim CPS for 2012–13 and thus moved to the second phase of assistance, the resumption of investment lending.

The interim CPS provides a strategic direction for AsDB’s operations in the Maldives. It focuses on developing small- and medium-sized enterprises, energy, and transport sectors. It highlighted key thematic priorities of private sector development and capacity development for policy and project implementation. The interim CPS will also support interventions in human resource development to the government.

Economic Recovery Program Loan

The AsDB Board of Directors approved the Economic Recovery Program (ERP) in December 2009 to support recovery and sustainable growth of the economy over the medium term. ERP became effective on June 8, 2010. The ERP supported specific reform initiatives, including: (i) rationalizing, prioritizing, and aligning public spending with available resources; (ii) broadening the tax base; (iii) reducing economic subsidies; (iv) supporting privatization of state-owned enterprises; (v) strengthening internal audit functions; and (vi) changing the role of the Government in the economy from a provider of all services to an enabler of sustainable and equitable growth. The first tranche of US$16.6 million was disbursed on June 25, 2010. The second tranche of US$16.5 million was disbursed on September 20, 2012.

A technical assistance (TA) loan (US$1.5 million) and TA grant (US$3.25 million) attached to the ERP were designed to enhance Government’s capacity in various areas including: (i) strengthening administration of new taxes introduced under the Program; (ii) developing capacity of the Government for implementing new revenue measures, debt management, budget formulation, and expenditure rationalization; (iii) strengthening internal audit procedures; and (iv) providing support for project/program management.

Loans and Grants

Since 1981, AsDB has approved 21 loans and grants for public sector projects with a total approved amount of US$169.18 million.

As of November 30, 2012, four loans were active with a net loan/grant amount of US$47.63 million (first table below) comprising two projects in public sector management amounting to US$34.5 million (72.5 percent), one for industry and trade for US$7.07 million (14.8 percent), and one for water and other municipal infrastructure for US$6.06 million (12.7 percent). Two projects under the industry and trade sector were approved on May 25, 2012 and are still awaiting loan effectiveness as of November 30, 2012. These are the loan (US$5.55 million) and grant (US$4.45 million) projects on Inclusive Micro-, Small- and Medium-Sized Enterprise Development.

Contract awards in 2012 totaled US$18.75 million as of November 30, 2012, bringing the cumulative figure to US$53.52 million. Of the 2012 contract awards, US$16.49 million (87.9 percent) went for the ERP Loan, and the remaining US$2.26 million (12.1 percent) for the Private Sector Development Project. Disbursements in 2012 totaled US$19.93 million as of November 30, 2012, bringing cumulative disbursements to US$52.98 million. The disbursement ratio was 84.52 percent.

AsDB’s Private Sector Operation has approved cumulatively two projects amounting to US$16.5 million. The amount includes both direct loans and an equity investment.

Technical Assistance

As of November 30, 2012, AsDB approved 62 TA projects for a total amount of US$24.7 million, of which 17 had been project preparatory and 44 had been advisory TA projects addressing institutional strengthening and capacity development.

In terms of TA amount, assistance is largest for public sector management at 52.1 percent for 24 projects, followed by transport and ICT sector at 14.2 percent for 13 projects, industry and trade sector at 7.9 percent for 3 projects, education sector at 7.8 percent for 6 projects, energy sector at 7.1 percent for 7 projects, agriculture and natural resources sector at 4.6 percent for 3 projects, finance sector at 3.7 percent for 4 projects, water and other municipal infrastructure and services sector and multisector at 2.5 percent for 2 projects.

There are six TA projects in the active portfolio with a total amount of $ 5.45 million (second table below). Five of these are capacity development TA and the other one is project preparatory TA.

Public Sector Loans and Grants Portfolio

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Source: Asian Development Bank.

Net amount as of November 30, 2012.

Not yet effective.

Technical Assistance Portfolio

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Source: Asian Development Bank.

Net amount as of November 30, 2012.

Statistical Issues

(As of January 2, 2013)

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Maldives: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance

(As of January 2, 2013)

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Includes reserve assets pledged or otherwise encumbered as well as net derivative positions.

Both market-based and officially determined, including discount rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes, and bonds.

Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.

The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.

Including currency and maturity composition.

Includes external gross financial asset and liability positions vis-à-vis nonresidents.

Daily (D); Weekly (W); Monthly (M); Quarterly (Q); Annually (A); Irregular (I); Not Available (NA).

1

Prepared jointly by IMF and World Bank staff.

1

Prepared by AsDB staff.