Prepared by Pragyan Deb, Albe Gjonbalaj, and Swarnali A. Hannan.
The aggregates do not necessarily include all the countries present in that group. The aggregates are formed using the countries shown in the charts with individual economies.
See Christine Lagarde’s (Managing Director of IMF) statement at the conclusion of G-20 Leaders’ Summit in Osaka, Japan: https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2019/06/29/pr19259-imf-managing-director-christine-lagarde-calls-for-stronger-international-cooperation.
Simulations include: (i) the increase in tariffs from 10 percent to 25 percent on USD 200 billion of U.S. imports from China (as of May 8, 2019), (ii) the possible 25 percent tariffs on the roughly USD 267 billion of U.S. imports from China (envisaged in May 2019). The simulations assume retaliatory actions by China.
See Chapter 1 of the October 2018 World Economic Outlook for a detailed description of the channels at work.
C. Caceres, D. Cerdeiro, and R. Mano. 2019. “Trade Wars and Trade Talks: Estimated Effects Using a Multi-Sector Model”, IMF Working Paper.