Abstract
2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Indonesia
Overview
1. The Indonesian economy performed well in 2018, despite external headwinds. Tighter global financial conditions in 2018 resulted in episodes of exchange rate pressures and capital outflows from Indonesia, which was relatively hard hit compared to other emerging markets in Asia (Figure 1). External pressures have moderated since October 2018 and inflows have resumed, although considerable volatility remains, including from heightened trade tensions. Faced with external headwinds, policy flexibility supported a positive macroeconomic performance in 2018—growth stabilized at above 5 percent and inflation was moderate at around 3 percent.
Indonesia and Emerging Markets: Recent Developments
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 250; 10.5089/9781513509129.002.A001
Indonesia and Emerging Markets: Recent Developments
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 250; 10.5089/9781513509129.002.A001
Indonesia and Emerging Markets: Recent Developments
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 250; 10.5089/9781513509129.002.A001
Indonesia: Macrofinancial Developments
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 250; 10.5089/9781513509129.002.A001
Indonesia: Macrofinancial Developments
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 250; 10.5089/9781513509129.002.A001
Indonesia: Macrofinancial Developments
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 250; 10.5089/9781513509129.002.A001
Indonesia: Macrofinancial Developments
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 250; 10.5089/9781513509129.002.A001
Indonesia: Macrofinancial Developments
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 250; 10.5089/9781513509129.002.A001
Indonesia: Recent Market Developments
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 250; 10.5089/9781513509129.002.A001
Indonesia: Recent Market Developments
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 250; 10.5089/9781513509129.002.A001
Indonesia: Recent Market Developments
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 250; 10.5089/9781513509129.002.A001
Indonesia: Real Sector
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 250; 10.5089/9781513509129.002.A001
Indonesia: Real Sector
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 250; 10.5089/9781513509129.002.A001
Indonesia: Real Sector
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 250; 10.5089/9781513509129.002.A001
Indonesia: External Sector
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 250; 10.5089/9781513509129.002.A001
Indonesia: External Sector
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 250; 10.5089/9781513509129.002.A001
Indonesia: External Sector
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 250; 10.5089/9781513509129.002.A001
Indonesia: Fiscal Sector
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 250; 10.5089/9781513509129.002.A001
Indonesia: Fiscal Sector
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 250; 10.5089/9781513509129.002.A001
Indonesia: Fiscal Sector
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 250; 10.5089/9781513509129.002.A001
Indonesia: Monetary Sector and Bank Liquidity Developments
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 250; 10.5089/9781513509129.002.A001
Indonesia: Monetary Sector and Bank Liquidity Developments
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 250; 10.5089/9781513509129.002.A001
Indonesia: Monetary Sector and Bank Liquidity Developments
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 250; 10.5089/9781513509129.002.A001
Selected Emerging Market Economies: Financial Soundness Indicators, 2018:Q4 1/
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 250; 10.5089/9781513509129.002.A001
1/ Or latest available data.
Selected Emerging Market Economies: Financial Soundness Indicators, 2018:Q4 1/
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 250; 10.5089/9781513509129.002.A001
1/ Or latest available data.Selected Emerging Market Economies: Financial Soundness Indicators, 2018:Q4 1/
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 250; 10.5089/9781513509129.002.A001
1/ Or latest available data.
Indonesia: Financial Soundness Indicators by Size of Commercial Banks
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 250; 10.5089/9781513509129.002.A001
Indonesia: Financial Soundness Indicators by Size of Commercial Banks
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 250; 10.5089/9781513509129.002.A001
Indonesia: Financial Soundness Indicators by Size of Commercial Banks
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 250; 10.5089/9781513509129.002.A001
2. However, Indonesia still confronts vulnerabilities and challenges. Major vulnerabilities stem from low tax revenues and shallow financial markets, which have led to heavy reliance on volatile portfolio inflows to finance the twin budget and current account deficits. Nonresident investors hold about 40 percent of rupiah-denominated government bonds and a third of corporate debt financing, leaving the country vulnerable to capital flow reversals. Furthermore, labor and product market rigidities have constrained growth, which needs to be boosted to harness the young and growing labor force.
3. Discussions focused on post-election reform priorities to boost inclusive growth. With President Joko Widodo re-election, the start of his second term will provide a window of opportunity to push ahead with structural reforms. In addition to macrofinancial policies to protect stability, the consultation focused on structural reforms to address vulnerabilities and boost growth, centering on two pillars: (i) operationalizing a medium-term revenue strategy that would raise resources to finance priority spending; and (ii) accelerating financial deepening to promote stable financing. These reforms would lessen Indonesia’s reliance on volatile capital inflows and facilitate complementary reforms in the labor and product markets, in particular human capital development, infrastructure enhancement, and improvement of the business environment, which are essential to lift potential growth.
4. The authorities’ policies were appropriate given the external pressures in 2018. Considering downside risks to the outlook, the small estimated output gap, the economy’s vulnerabilities, and external shocks to the current and financial accounts, the policy strategy that prioritized macroeconomic and financial stability in the presence of unexpected external pressures in 2018 was appropriate. Tightened fiscal and monetary policy helped reduce the financing needs of the public sector and protected investor confidence. The authorities are taking steps to implement the 2017 FSAP recommendations (Table 11). However, progress in implementing a medium-term revenue strategy to raise resources has been slow, as the authorities have focused only on the tax administration angle of the strategy.
Indonesia: Selected Economic Indicators, 2014–20
Includes NPISH consumption.
Contribution to GDP growth (percentage points).
Includes changes in stocks.
Short-term debt on a remaining maturity basis.
Public and private external debt.
Indonesia: Selected Economic Indicators, 2014–20
| Nominal GDP (2018): Rp 14,826 trillion or US$ 1022 billion | |||||||||
| Population (2018): 264.2 million | |||||||||
| Main exports (percent of total, 2018): coal (13.3), oil and gas (9.6), palm oil (9.2), textile & textile products (7.4) | |||||||||
| GDP per capita (2018): US$3,871 | |||||||||
| Unemployment rate (2018): 5.3 percent | |||||||||
| Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty line (Sept. 2018): 9.66 percent of population | |||||||||
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 Proj. | 2020 Proj. | |||
| Real GDP (percent change) | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | ||
| Domestic demand | 5.0 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 5.2 | ||
| Of which: | |||||||||
| Private consumption 1/ | 5.3 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | ||
| Government consumption | 1.2 | 5.3 | -0.1 | 2.1 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.5 | ||
| Gross fixed investment | 4.4 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 5.9 | ||
| Change in stocks 2/ | 0.5 | -0.6 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Net exports 2/ | -0.2 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.3 | -1.0 | -0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Saving and investment (in percent of GDP) | |||||||||
| Gross investment 3/ | 34.6 | 34.1 | 33.9 | 33.7 | 34.5 | 34.7 | 34.9 | ||
| Gross national saving | 31.5 | 32.0 | 32.0 | 32.1 | 31.4 | 31.8 | 32.0 | ||
| Prices (12-month percent change) | |||||||||
| Consumer prices (end period) | 8.4 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | ||
| Consumer prices (period average) | 6.4 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.1 | ||
| Public finances (in percent of GDP) | |||||||||
| General government revenue | 16.5 | 14.9 | 14.3 | 14.1 | 14.9 | 14.8 | 14.9 | ||
| General government expenditure | 18.6 | 17.5 | 16.8 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 16.7 | 16.7 | ||
| Of which: Energy subsidies | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | ||
| General government balance | -2.1 | -2.6 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -1.8 | -1.8 | -1.8 | ||
| Primary balance | -0.9 | -1.2 | -1.0 | -0.9 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | ||
| General government debt | 24.7 | 27.0 | 28.0 | 29.4 | 30.1 | 30.2 | 29.9 | ||
| Money and credit (12-month percent change; end of period) | |||||||||
| Rupiah M2 | 13.3 | 9.2 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.8 | … | … | ||
| Base money | 11.6 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 9.7 | -1.5 | … | … | ||
| Private Sector Credit | 11.8 | 10.3 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 12.0 | 12.3 | 12.4 | ||
| One-month interbank rate (period average) | 7.5 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 6.2 | … | … | ||
| Balance of payments (in billions of U.S. dollars, unless otherwise indicated) | |||||||||
| Current account balance | -27.5 | -17.5 | -17.0 | -16.2 | -31.1 | -32.4 | -34.7 | ||
| In percent of GDP | -3.1 | -2.0 | -1.8 | -1.6 | -3.0 | -2.9 | -2.9 | ||
| Trade balance | 7.0 | 14.0 | 15.3 | 18.8 | -0.4 | -4.6 | -0.6 | ||
| Of which: Oil and gas (net) | -11.8 | -5.7 | -4.8 | -7.3 | -11.6 | -16.2 | -17.0 | ||
| Inward direct investment | 21.8 | 16.6 | 3.9 | 20.6 | 22.0 | 23.7 | 27.0 | ||
| Overall balance | 15.2 | -1.1 | 12.1 | 11.6 | -7.1 | 1.2 | 2.8 | ||
| Terms of trade, percent change (excluding oil) | 1.4 | -1.8 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | -0.6 | -0.1 | ||
| Gross reserves | |||||||||
| In billions of U.S. dollars (end period) | 111.9 | 105.9 | 116.4 | 130.2 | 120.7 | 121.9 | 124.7 | ||
| In months of prospective imports of goods and services | 8.1 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 5.7 | ||
| As a percent of short-term debt 4/ | 189 | 191 | 213 | 237 | 203 | 185 | 171 | ||
| Total external debt 5/ | |||||||||
| In billions of U.S. dollars | 293.3 | 310.7 | 320.0 | 352.5 | 376.8 | 415.0 | 455.2 | ||
| In percent of GDP | 32.9 | 36.1 | 34.3 | 34.7 | 36.9 | 37.7 | 37.7 | ||
| Exchange rate | |||||||||
| Rupiah per U.S. dollar (period average) | 11,862 | 13,391 | 13,306 | 13,383 | 14,231 | … | … | ||
| Rupiah per U.S. dollar (end of period) | 12,435 | 13,788 | 13,473 | 13,568 | 14,390 | … | … | ||
| Memorandum items: | |||||||||
| Jakarta Stock Exchange (12-month percentage change, composite index) | 22.3 | -12.1 | 15.3 | 20.0 | -2.5 | … | … | ||
| Oil production (thousands of barrels per day) | 794 | 800 | 820 | 815 | 800 | 740 | 710 | ||
| Nominal GDP (in trillions of rupiah) | 10,570 | 11,526 | 12,402 | 13,587 | 14,826 | 16,047 | 17,409 | ||
Includes NPISH consumption.
Contribution to GDP growth (percentage points).
Includes changes in stocks.
Short-term debt on a remaining maturity basis.
Public and private external debt.
Indonesia: Selected Economic Indicators, 2014–20
| Nominal GDP (2018): Rp 14,826 trillion or US$ 1022 billion | |||||||||
| Population (2018): 264.2 million | |||||||||
| Main exports (percent of total, 2018): coal (13.3), oil and gas (9.6), palm oil (9.2), textile & textile products (7.4) | |||||||||
| GDP per capita (2018): US$3,871 | |||||||||
| Unemployment rate (2018): 5.3 percent | |||||||||
| Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty line (Sept. 2018): 9.66 percent of population | |||||||||
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 Proj. | 2020 Proj. | |||
| Real GDP (percent change) | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | ||
| Domestic demand | 5.0 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 5.2 | ||
| Of which: | |||||||||
| Private consumption 1/ | 5.3 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | ||
| Government consumption | 1.2 | 5.3 | -0.1 | 2.1 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.5 | ||
| Gross fixed investment | 4.4 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 5.9 | ||
| Change in stocks 2/ | 0.5 | -0.6 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Net exports 2/ | -0.2 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.3 | -1.0 | -0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Saving and investment (in percent of GDP) | |||||||||
| Gross investment 3/ | 34.6 | 34.1 | 33.9 | 33.7 | 34.5 | 34.7 | 34.9 | ||
| Gross national saving | 31.5 | 32.0 | 32.0 | 32.1 | 31.4 | 31.8 | 32.0 | ||
| Prices (12-month percent change) | |||||||||
| Consumer prices (end period) | 8.4 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | ||
| Consumer prices (period average) | 6.4 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.1 | ||
| Public finances (in percent of GDP) | |||||||||
| General government revenue | 16.5 | 14.9 | 14.3 | 14.1 | 14.9 | 14.8 | 14.9 | ||
| General government expenditure | 18.6 | 17.5 | 16.8 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 16.7 | 16.7 | ||
| Of which: Energy subsidies | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | ||
| General government balance | -2.1 | -2.6 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -1.8 | -1.8 | -1.8 | ||
| Primary balance | -0.9 | -1.2 | -1.0 | -0.9 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | ||
| General government debt | 24.7 | 27.0 | 28.0 | 29.4 | 30.1 | 30.2 | 29.9 | ||
| Money and credit (12-month percent change; end of period) | |||||||||
| Rupiah M2 | 13.3 | 9.2 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.8 | … | … | ||
| Base money | 11.6 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 9.7 | -1.5 | … | … | ||
| Private Sector Credit | 11.8 | 10.3 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 12.0 | 12.3 | 12.4 | ||
| One-month interbank rate (period average) | 7.5 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 6.2 | … | … | ||
| Balance of payments (in billions of U.S. dollars, unless otherwise indicated) | |||||||||
| Current account balance | -27.5 | -17.5 | -17.0 | -16.2 | -31.1 | -32.4 | -34.7 | ||
| In percent of GDP | -3.1 | -2.0 | -1.8 | -1.6 | -3.0 | -2.9 | -2.9 | ||
| Trade balance | 7.0 | 14.0 | 15.3 | 18.8 | -0.4 | -4.6 | -0.6 | ||
| Of which: Oil and gas (net) | -11.8 | -5.7 | -4.8 | -7.3 | -11.6 | -16.2 | -17.0 | ||
| Inward direct investment | 21.8 | 16.6 | 3.9 | 20.6 | 22.0 | 23.7 | 27.0 | ||
| Overall balance | 15.2 | -1.1 | 12.1 | 11.6 | -7.1 | 1.2 | 2.8 | ||
| Terms of trade, percent change (excluding oil) | 1.4 | -1.8 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | -0.6 | -0.1 | ||
| Gross reserves | |||||||||
| In billions of U.S. dollars (end period) | 111.9 | 105.9 | 116.4 | 130.2 | 120.7 | 121.9 | 124.7 | ||
| In months of prospective imports of goods and services | 8.1 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 5.7 | ||
| As a percent of short-term debt 4/ | 189 | 191 | 213 | 237 | 203 | 185 | 171 | ||
| Total external debt 5/ | |||||||||
| In billions of U.S. dollars | 293.3 | 310.7 | 320.0 | 352.5 | 376.8 | 415.0 | 455.2 | ||
| In percent of GDP | 32.9 | 36.1 | 34.3 | 34.7 | 36.9 | 37.7 | 37.7 | ||
| Exchange rate | |||||||||
| Rupiah per U.S. dollar (period average) | 11,862 | 13,391 | 13,306 | 13,383 | 14,231 | … | … | ||
| Rupiah per U.S. dollar (end of period) | 12,435 | 13,788 | 13,473 | 13,568 | 14,390 | … | … | ||
| Memorandum items: | |||||||||
| Jakarta Stock Exchange (12-month percentage change, composite index) | 22.3 | -12.1 | 15.3 | 20.0 | -2.5 | … | … | ||
| Oil production (thousands of barrels per day) | 794 | 800 | 820 | 815 | 800 | 740 | 710 | ||
| Nominal GDP (in trillions of rupiah) | 10,570 | 11,526 | 12,402 | 13,587 | 14,826 | 16,047 | 17,409 | ||
Includes NPISH consumption.
Contribution to GDP growth (percentage points).
Includes changes in stocks.
Short-term debt on a remaining maturity basis.
Public and private external debt.
Indonesia: Selected Vulnerability Indicators, 2014–18
One-month Jakarta Interbank offered rate.
Defined as current account deficit, plus amortization on medium- and long-term debt and short-term debt at end of previous period.
Public sector covers central government only.
Overall balance plus debt amortization.
Short-term debt and maturing medium- and long-term debt.
Debt in foreign currency or linked to the exchange rate.
Government securities at variable interest rates.
Includes capital charge for operational risk.
Indonesia: Selected Vulnerability Indicators, 2014–18
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key economic and market indicators | ||||||||
| Real GDP growth (in percent) | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.2 | |||
| CPI inflation (in percent, end of period, e.o.p.) | 8.4 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 3.1 | |||
| Short-term (ST) interest rate (in percent, e.o.p.) 1/ | 6.6 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 7.5 | |||
| Ten-year government bond yield (in percent, e.o.p.) | 7.8 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 6.3 | 8.0 | |||
| Indonesia EMBI spread (basis points (bps), e.o.p.) | 266.0 | 329.0 | 237.0 | 166.0 | 237.0 | |||
| Exchange rate (rupiah per U.S. dollar, e.o.p.) | 12,435 | 13,788 | 13,473 | 13,568 | 14,390 | |||
| External sector | ||||||||
| Current account balance (in percent of GDP) | -3.1 | -2.0 | -1.8 | -1.6 | -3.0 | |||
| Net FDI inflows (in percent of GDP) | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.4 | |||
| Exports of goods and nonfactor services (GNFS) (percentage change, in US$ terms) | -3.0 | -13.8 | -2.1 | 15.7 | 7.4 | |||
| Real effective exchange rate (e.o.p.; 2010=100) | 92.4 | 91.5 | 94.2 | 92.8 | 90.6 | |||
| Gross international reserves (in US$ billion) | 111.9 | 105.9 | 116.4 | 130.2 | 120.7 | |||
| In percent of ST debt at remaining maturity (RM) | 188.8 | 190.9 | 212.7 | 237.5 | 202.6 | |||
| Total gross external debt (in percent of exports of GNFS) | 147.5 | 181.3 | 190.7 | 181.5 | 180.6 | |||
| Gross external financing requirement (in US$ billion) 2/ | 83.8 | 76.8 | 72.5 | 70.9 | 85.9 | |||
| Public sector (PS) 3/ | ||||||||
| Overall balance (in percent of GDP) | -2.1 | -2.6 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -1.8 | |||
| Primary balance (in percent of GDP) | -0.9 | -1.2 | -1.0 | -0.9 | 0.0 | |||
| Gross PS financing requirement (in percent of GDP) 4/ | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 4.6 | |||
| Public sector gross debt (PSGD) (in percent of GDP) | 24.7 | 27.0 | 28.0 | 29.4 | 30.1 | |||
| Of which : Exposed to rollover risk (in percent of total PSGD) 5/ | 7.4 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 9.9 | 10.5 | |||
| Exposed to exchange rate risk (in percent of total PSGD) 6/ | 43.4 | 43.6 | 41.8 | 41.3 | 41.5 | |||
| Exposed to interest rate risk (in percent of total PSGD) 7/ | 4.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | |||
| Financial sector (FS) | ||||||||
| Capital to risk-weighted assets (in percent) 8/ | 19.6 | 21.4 | 22.9 | 23.2 | 23.0 | |||
| Nonperforming loans (in percent of total loans) | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.4 | |||
| Foreign currency deposits at commercial banks (in percent of total deposits) | 15.9 | 16.5 | 14.5 | 13.8 | 13.6 | |||
| Foreign currency loans at commercial banks (in percent of total loans) | 15.7 | 14.3 | 13.3 | 13.2 | 13.6 | |||
| Government debt held by financial system (percent of total financial system assets) | 6.0 | 7.5 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.0 | |||
| Private sector credit of banking system (annual percentage change) | 11.8 | 10.3 | 7.7 | 7.2 | 8.3 | |||
One-month Jakarta Interbank offered rate.
Defined as current account deficit, plus amortization on medium- and long-term debt and short-term debt at end of previous period.
Public sector covers central government only.
Overall balance plus debt amortization.
Short-term debt and maturing medium- and long-term debt.
Debt in foreign currency or linked to the exchange rate.
Government securities at variable interest rates.
Includes capital charge for operational risk.
Indonesia: Selected Vulnerability Indicators, 2014–18
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key economic and market indicators | ||||||||
| Real GDP growth (in percent) | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.2 | |||
| CPI inflation (in percent, end of period, e.o.p.) | 8.4 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 3.1 | |||
| Short-term (ST) interest rate (in percent, e.o.p.) 1/ | 6.6 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 7.5 | |||
| Ten-year government bond yield (in percent, e.o.p.) | 7.8 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 6.3 | 8.0 | |||
| Indonesia EMBI spread (basis points (bps), e.o.p.) | 266.0 | 329.0 | 237.0 | 166.0 | 237.0 | |||
| Exchange rate (rupiah per U.S. dollar, e.o.p.) | 12,435 | 13,788 | 13,473 | 13,568 | 14,390 | |||
| External sector | ||||||||
| Current account balance (in percent of GDP) | -3.1 | -2.0 | -1.8 | -1.6 | -3.0 | |||
| Net FDI inflows (in percent of GDP) | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.4 | |||
| Exports of goods and nonfactor services (GNFS) (percentage change, in US$ terms) | -3.0 | -13.8 | -2.1 | 15.7 | 7.4 | |||
| Real effective exchange rate (e.o.p.; 2010=100) | 92.4 | 91.5 | 94.2 | 92.8 | 90.6 | |||
| Gross international reserves (in US$ billion) | 111.9 | 105.9 | 116.4 | 130.2 | 120.7 | |||
| In percent of ST debt at remaining maturity (RM) | 188.8 | 190.9 | 212.7 | 237.5 | 202.6 | |||
| Total gross external debt (in percent of exports of GNFS) | 147.5 | 181.3 | 190.7 | 181.5 | 180.6 | |||
| Gross external financing requirement (in US$ billion) 2/ | 83.8 | 76.8 | 72.5 | 70.9 | 85.9 | |||
| Public sector (PS) 3/ | ||||||||
| Overall balance (in percent of GDP) | -2.1 | -2.6 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -1.8 | |||
| Primary balance (in percent of GDP) | -0.9 | -1.2 | -1.0 | -0.9 | 0.0 | |||
| Gross PS financing requirement (in percent of GDP) 4/ | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 4.6 | |||
| Public sector gross debt (PSGD) (in percent of GDP) | 24.7 | 27.0 | 28.0 | 29.4 | 30.1 | |||
| Of which : Exposed to rollover risk (in percent of total PSGD) 5/ | 7.4 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 9.9 | 10.5 | |||
| Exposed to exchange rate risk (in percent of total PSGD) 6/ | 43.4 | 43.6 | 41.8 | 41.3 | 41.5 | |||
| Exposed to interest rate risk (in percent of total PSGD) 7/ | 4.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | |||
| Financial sector (FS) | ||||||||
| Capital to risk-weighted assets (in percent) 8/ | 19.6 | 21.4 | 22.9 | 23.2 | 23.0 | |||
| Nonperforming loans (in percent of total loans) | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.4 | |||
| Foreign currency deposits at commercial banks (in percent of total deposits) | 15.9 | 16.5 | 14.5 | 13.8 | 13.6 | |||
| Foreign currency loans at commercial banks (in percent of total loans) | 15.7 | 14.3 | 13.3 | 13.2 | 13.6 | |||
| Government debt held by financial system (percent of total financial system assets) | 6.0 | 7.5 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.0 | |||
| Private sector credit of banking system (annual percentage change) | 11.8 | 10.3 | 7.7 | 7.2 | 8.3 | |||
One-month Jakarta Interbank offered rate.
Defined as current account deficit, plus amortization on medium- and long-term debt and short-term debt at end of previous period.
Public sector covers central government only.
Overall balance plus debt amortization.
Short-term debt and maturing medium- and long-term debt.
Debt in foreign currency or linked to the exchange rate.
Government securities at variable interest rates.
Includes capital charge for operational risk.
Indonesia: Balance of Payments, 2014–20
(In billions of U.S. dollar, unless otherwise indicated)
Includes “other exports” category.
FDI developments in 2016 reflected some one-off transactions associated with the tax amnesty program.
Defined as current account deficit, plus amortization on medium- and long-term debt and short-term debt at end of previous period.
Indonesia: Balance of Payments, 2014–20
(In billions of U.S. dollar, unless otherwise indicated)
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 Proj. | 2020 Proj. | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current account | -27.5 | -17.5 | -17.0 | -16.2 | -31.1 | -32.4 | -34.7 | ||||||
| Goods, net (trade balance) | 7.0 | 14.0 | 15.3 | 18.8 | -0.4 | -4.6 | -0.6 | ||||||
| Exports, f.o.b. | 175.3 | 149.1 | 144.5 | 168.9 | 180.7 | 184.2 | 202.5 | ||||||
| Oil and gas | 28.8 | 17.2 | 12.9 | 15.6 | 17.6 | 13.0 | 13.3 | ||||||
| Non-oil and gas 1/ | 146.5 | 131.9 | 131.6 | 153.3 | 163.1 | 171.2 | 189.2 | ||||||
| Of which : Manufacturing | 115.4 | 104.8 | 105.9 | 120.6 | 125.2 | 133.5 | 150.0 | ||||||
| Palm oil | 17.5 | 15.4 | 14.4 | 18.5 | 16.5 | 16.6 | 17.5 | ||||||
| Rubber products | 7.0 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 7.5 | ||||||
| Other manufacturing | 91.0 | 83.5 | 86.0 | 94.9 | 102.5 | 109.8 | 125.0 | ||||||
| Mining | 21.8 | 19.5 | 18.2 | 23.9 | 29.3 | 28.7 | 29.7 | ||||||
| Imports, f.o.b. | -168.3 | -135.1 | -129.2 | -150.1 | -181.2 | -188.9 | -203.1 | ||||||
| Oil and gas | -40.6 | -22.9 | -17.7 | -22.9 | -29.2 | -29.3 | -30.3 | ||||||
| Non-oil and gas | -127.7 | -112.2 | -111.5 | -127.1 | -151.9 | -159.6 | -172.8 | ||||||
| Services, net | -10.0 | -8.7 | -7.1 | -7.4 | -7.1 | -8.6 | -9.9 | ||||||
| Income, net | -29.7 | -28.4 | -29.6 | -32.1 | -30.4 | -27.7 | -33.1 | ||||||
| Current transfers, net | 5.2 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 8.9 | ||||||
| Capital and financial account | 44.9 | 16.9 | 29.6 | 28.7 | 25.2 | 33.6 | 37.5 | ||||||
| Capital account | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | ||||||
| Financial account | 44.9 | 16.8 | 29.6 | 28.7 | 25.1 | 33.6 | 37.4 | ||||||
| Direct investment, net 2/ | 14.7 | 10.7 | 16.1 | 18.5 | 13.8 | 15.2 | 17.8 | ||||||
| Abroad, net | -7.1 | -5.9 | 12.2 | -2.1 | -8.1 | -8.5 | -9.2 | ||||||
| In Indonesia (FDI), net | 21.8 | 16.6 | 3.9 | 20.6 | 22.0 | 23.7 | 27.0 | ||||||
| Portfolio investment, net | 26.1 | 16.2 | 19.0 | 21.1 | 9.3 | 14.2 | 16.3 | ||||||
| Assets, net | 2.6 | -1.3 | 2.2 | -3.4 | -5.2 | -4.6 | -3.7 | ||||||
| Liabilities | 23.5 | 17.5 | 16.8 | 24.4 | 14.5 | 18.9 | 20.0 | ||||||
| Equity securities | 3.3 | -1.5 | 1.3 | -2.5 | -3.7 | -2.0 | -1.1 | ||||||
| Debt securities | 20.2 | 19.0 | 15.5 | 27.0 | 18.2 | 20.8 | 21.1 | ||||||
| Other investment | 4.3 | -10.1 | -5.5 | -10.7 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 3.3 | ||||||
| Assets | -3.4 | -11.8 | 1.8 | -13.5 | -9.2 | -6.5 | -7.1 | ||||||
| Public sector | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||
| Private sector | -3.4 | -11.8 | 1.8 | -13.5 | -9.2 | -6.5 | -7.1 | ||||||
| Liabilities | 7.7 | 1.7 | -7.3 | 2.7 | 11.2 | 10.7 | 10.4 | ||||||
| Public sector | -4.2 | -0.2 | -2.4 | -1.4 | -1.0 | -2.3 | -2.9 | ||||||
| Private sector | 11.9 | 1.9 | -4.9 | 4.1 | 12.2 | 13.0 | 13.3 | ||||||
| Total | 17.4 | -0.7 | 12.7 | 12.5 | -5.9 | 1.2 | 2.8 | ||||||
| Errors and omissions | -2.2 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -1.0 | -1.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||
| Overall balance | 15.2 | -1.1 | 12.4 | 11.6 | -7.1 | 1.2 | 2.8 | ||||||
| Valuation changes | -2.8 | -4.8 | -1.9 | 2.2 | -2.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||
| Change in reserve assets (- = increase) | -12.5 | 5.9 | -10.4 | -13.8 | 9.5 | -1.2 | -2.8 | ||||||
| Memorandum items: | |||||||||||||
| Reserve assets position (eop) | 111.9 | 105.9 | 116.4 | 130.2 | 120.7 | 121.9 | 124.7 | ||||||
| In months of prospective imports of goods and services | 8.1 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 5.7 | ||||||
| In percent of short-term (ST) debt at remaining maturity (RM) | 189 | 191 | 213 | 237 | 203 | 185 | 171 | ||||||
| In percent of ST debt at RM plus the current account deficit | 146 | 146 | 164 | 152 | 131 | 121 | 115 | ||||||
| Current account (- deficit, percent of GDP) | -3.1 | -2.0 | -1.8 | -1.6 | -3.0 | -2.9 | -2.9 | ||||||
| Non-oil and gas exports, volume growth | -0.9 | -5.5 | 4.8 | 14.5 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 10.3 | ||||||
| Non-oil and gas imports, volume growth | -1.3 | 0.6 | 5.1 | 9.5 | 14.7 | 5.4 | 7.9 | ||||||
| Terms of trade, percent change (excluding oil) | 1.4 | -1.8 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | -0.6 | -0.1 | ||||||
| Terms of trade, percent change (including oil) | 1.2 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | -3.4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | ||||||
| Gross external financing requirement (in US$ billion) 3/ | 83.8 | 76.8 | 72.5 | 70.9 | 85.9 | 91.9 | 100.7 | ||||||
Includes “other exports” category.
FDI developments in 2016 reflected some one-off transactions associated with the tax amnesty program.
Defined as current account deficit, plus amortization on medium- and long-term debt and short-term debt at end of previous period.
Indonesia: Balance of Payments, 2014–20
(In billions of U.S. dollar, unless otherwise indicated)
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 Proj. | 2020 Proj. | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current account | -27.5 | -17.5 | -17.0 | -16.2 | -31.1 | -32.4 | -34.7 | ||||||
| Goods, net (trade balance) | 7.0 | 14.0 | 15.3 | 18.8 | -0.4 | -4.6 | -0.6 | ||||||
| Exports, f.o.b. | 175.3 | 149.1 | 144.5 | 168.9 | 180.7 | 184.2 | 202.5 | ||||||
| Oil and gas | 28.8 | 17.2 | 12.9 | 15.6 | 17.6 | 13.0 | 13.3 | ||||||
| Non-oil and gas 1/ | 146.5 | 131.9 | 131.6 | 153.3 | 163.1 | 171.2 | 189.2 | ||||||
| Of which : Manufacturing | 115.4 | 104.8 | 105.9 | 120.6 | 125.2 | 133.5 | 150.0 | ||||||
| Palm oil | 17.5 | 15.4 | 14.4 | 18.5 | 16.5 | 16.6 | 17.5 | ||||||
| Rubber products | 7.0 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 7.5 | ||||||
| Other manufacturing | 91.0 | 83.5 | 86.0 | 94.9 | 102.5 | 109.8 | 125.0 | ||||||
| Mining | 21.8 | 19.5 | 18.2 | 23.9 | 29.3 | 28.7 | 29.7 | ||||||
| Imports, f.o.b. | -168.3 | -135.1 | -129.2 | -150.1 | -181.2 | -188.9 | -203.1 | ||||||
| Oil and gas | -40.6 | -22.9 | -17.7 | -22.9 | -29.2 | -29.3 | -30.3 | ||||||
| Non-oil and gas | -127.7 | -112.2 | -111.5 | -127.1 | -151.9 | -159.6 | -172.8 | ||||||
| Services, net | -10.0 | -8.7 | -7.1 | -7.4 | -7.1 | -8.6 | -9.9 | ||||||
| Income, net | -29.7 | -28.4 | -29.6 | -32.1 | -30.4 | -27.7 | -33.1 | ||||||
| Current transfers, net | 5.2 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 8.9 | ||||||
| Capital and financial account | 44.9 | 16.9 | 29.6 | 28.7 | 25.2 | 33.6 | 37.5 | ||||||
| Capital account | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | ||||||
| Financial account | 44.9 | 16.8 | 29.6 | 28.7 | 25.1 | 33.6 | 37.4 | ||||||
| Direct investment, net 2/ | 14.7 | 10.7 | 16.1 | 18.5 | 13.8 | 15.2 | 17.8 | ||||||
| Abroad, net | -7.1 | -5.9 | 12.2 | -2.1 | -8.1 | -8.5 | -9.2 | ||||||
| In Indonesia (FDI), net | 21.8 | 16.6 | 3.9 | 20.6 | 22.0 | 23.7 | 27.0 | ||||||
| Portfolio investment, net | 26.1 | 16.2 | 19.0 | 21.1 | 9.3 | 14.2 | 16.3 | ||||||
| Assets, net | 2.6 | -1.3 | 2.2 | -3.4 | -5.2 | -4.6 | -3.7 | ||||||
| Liabilities | 23.5 | 17.5 | 16.8 | 24.4 | 14.5 | 18.9 | 20.0 | ||||||
| Equity securities | 3.3 | -1.5 | 1.3 | -2.5 | -3.7 | -2.0 | -1.1 | ||||||
| Debt securities | 20.2 | 19.0 | 15.5 | 27.0 | 18.2 | 20.8 | 21.1 | ||||||
| Other investment | 4.3 | -10.1 | -5.5 | -10.7 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 3.3 | ||||||
| Assets | -3.4 | -11.8 | 1.8 | -13.5 | -9.2 | -6.5 | -7.1 | ||||||
| Public sector | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||
| Private sector | -3.4 | -11.8 | 1.8 | -13.5 | -9.2 | -6.5 | -7.1 | ||||||
| Liabilities | 7.7 | 1.7 | -7.3 | 2.7 | 11.2 | 10.7 | 10.4 | ||||||
| Public sector | -4.2 | -0.2 | -2.4 | -1.4 | -1.0 | -2.3 | -2.9 | ||||||
| Private sector | 11.9 | 1.9 | -4.9 | 4.1 | 12.2 | 13.0 | 13.3 | ||||||
| Total | 17.4 | -0.7 | 12.7 | 12.5 | -5.9 | 1.2 | 2.8 | ||||||
| Errors and omissions | -2.2 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -1.0 | -1.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||
| Overall balance | 15.2 | -1.1 | 12.4 | 11.6 | -7.1 | 1.2 | 2.8 | ||||||
| Valuation changes | -2.8 | -4.8 | -1.9 | 2.2 | -2.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||
| Change in reserve assets (- = increase) | -12.5 | 5.9 | -10.4 | -13.8 | 9.5 | -1.2 | -2.8 | ||||||
| Memorandum items: | |||||||||||||
| Reserve assets position (eop) | 111.9 | 105.9 | 116.4 | 130.2 | 120.7 | 121.9 | 124.7 | ||||||
| In months of prospective imports of goods and services | 8.1 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 5.7 | ||||||
| In percent of short-term (ST) debt at remaining maturity (RM) | 189 | 191 | 213 | 237 | 203 | 185 | 171 | ||||||
| In percent of ST debt at RM plus the current account deficit | 146 | 146 | 164 | 152 | 131 | 121 | 115 | ||||||
| Current account (- deficit, percent of GDP) | -3.1 | -2.0 | -1.8 | -1.6 | -3.0 | -2.9 | -2.9 | ||||||
| Non-oil and gas exports, volume growth | -0.9 | -5.5 | 4.8 | 14.5 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 10.3 | ||||||
| Non-oil and gas imports, volume growth | -1.3 | 0.6 | 5.1 | 9.5 | 14.7 | 5.4 | 7.9 | ||||||
| Terms of trade, percent change (excluding oil) | 1.4 | -1.8 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | -0.6 | -0.1 | ||||||
| Terms of trade, percent change (including oil) | 1.2 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | -3.4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | ||||||
| Gross external financing requirement (in US$ billion) 3/ | 83.8 | 76.8 | 72.5 | 70.9 | 85.9 | 91.9 | 100.7 | ||||||
Includes “other exports” category.
FDI developments in 2016 reflected some one-off transactions associated with the tax amnesty program.
Defined as current account deficit, plus amortization on medium- and long-term debt and short-term debt at end of previous period.
Indonesia: Medium-Term Macroeconomic Framework, 2017–24
Includes NPISH consumption.
Contribution to GDP growth.
Short-term debt on a remaining maturity basis.
Follows the guidance of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision.
Indonesia: Medium-Term Macroeconomic Framework, 2017–24
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 Proj. | 2020 Proj. | 2021 Proj. | 2022 Proj. | 2023 Proj. | 2024 Proj. | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP (percent change) | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | ||||
| Domestic demand | 5.0 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | ||||
| Of which: | ||||||||||||
| Private consumption 1/ | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | ||||
| Government Consumption | 2.1 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | ||||
| Gross fixed investment | 6.2 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | ||||
| Net exports 2/ | 0.3 | -1.0 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | ||||
| Output gap | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Prices (12-month percent change) | ||||||||||||
| Consumer prices (end period) | 3.6 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | ||||
| Consumer prices (period average) | 3.8 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | ||||
| Public finances (percent of GDP) | ||||||||||||
| General government revenue | 14.1 | 14.9 | 14.8 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 15.0 | ||||
| General government expenditure | 16.6 | 16.6 | 16.7 | 16.7 | 16.8 | 16.8 | 16.8 | 16.8 | ||||
| General government balance | -2.5 | -1.8 | -1.8 | -1.8 | -1.8 | -1.8 | -1.8 | -1.8 | ||||
| General government primary balance | -0.9 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.3 | ||||
| General government debt | 29.4 | 30.1 | 30.2 | 29.9 | 29.9 | 29.8 | 29.7 | 29.5 | ||||
| Balance of payments (billions of U.S. dollars) | ||||||||||||
| Current account balance | -16.2 | -31.1 | -31.7 | -34.0 | -34.7 | -36.6 | -38.7 | -41.5 | ||||
| In percent of GDP | -1.6 | -3.0 | -2.9 | -2.8 | -2.7 | -2.6 | -2.6 | -2.6 | ||||
| Trade balance | 18.8 | -0.4 | -4.6 | -0.6 | 2.4 | 6.9 | 11.3 | 11.3 | ||||
| In percent of GDP | 1.9 | 0.0 | -0.4 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | ||||
| Of which : Oil and gas (net) | -7.3 | -11.6 | -16.3 | -17.0 | -18.6 | -21.2 | -24.9 | -32.5 | ||||
| Service balance (percent of GDP) | -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.9 | -0.9 | -0.9 | -0.9 | ||||
| Overall balance | 11.6 | -7.1 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 8.5 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 10.8 | ||||
| Gross reserves | ||||||||||||
| In billions of U.S. dollars (end period) | 130.2 | 120.7 | 122.2 | 125.3 | 133.8 | 143.8 | 153.3 | 164.1 | ||||
| In months of prospective imports | 7.2 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 7.3 | ||||
| As a percent of short-term debt 3/ | 237.5 | 202.6 | 185.3 | 172.2 | 167.9 | 165.7 | 163.0 | 160.8 | ||||
| Total external debt | ||||||||||||
| In billions of U.S. dollars | 352.5 | 376.8 | 414.8 | 454.9 | 496.1 | 537.4 | 578.9 | 623.9 | ||||
| In percent of GDP | 34.7 | 36.9 | 37.7 | 37.7 | 38.2 | 38.6 | 38.8 | 39.0 | ||||
| Credit | ||||||||||||
| Private sector credit growth (percent) | 8.7 | 12.0 | 12.3 | 12.4 | 12.5 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 12.5 | ||||
| Credit-to-GDP gap (percent) 4/ | -1.3 | -1.2 | -0.7 | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | ||||
| Memorandum items: | ||||||||||||
| Oil production (thousands of barrels per day) | 815 | 800 | 740 | 710 | 707 | 704 | 701 | 698 | ||||
| Indonesian oil price (period average, in U.S. dollars per barrel) | 51.2 | 66.9 | 64.4 | 63.0 | 59.7 | 57.6 | 56.6 | 56.3 | ||||
| Nominal GDP (trillions of rupiah) | 13,587 | 14,826 | 16,047 | 17,432 | 18,885 | 20,489 | 22,228 | 24,113 | ||||
| Nominal GDP (billions of U.S. dollars) | 1,015 | 1,022 | … | … | … | … | … | … | ||||
Includes NPISH consumption.
Contribution to GDP growth.
Short-term debt on a remaining maturity basis.
Follows the guidance of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision.
Indonesia: Medium-Term Macroeconomic Framework, 2017–24
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 Proj. | 2020 Proj. | 2021 Proj. | 2022 Proj. | 2023 Proj. | 2024 Proj. | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP (percent change) | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | ||||
| Domestic demand | 5.0 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | ||||
| Of which: | ||||||||||||
| Private consumption 1/ | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | ||||
| Government Consumption | 2.1 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | ||||
| Gross fixed investment | 6.2 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | ||||
| Net exports 2/ | 0.3 | -1.0 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | ||||
| Output gap | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Prices (12-month percent change) | ||||||||||||
| Consumer prices (end period) | 3.6 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | ||||
| Consumer prices (period average) | 3.8 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | ||||
| Public finances (percent of GDP) | ||||||||||||
| General government revenue | 14.1 | 14.9 | 14.8 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 15.0 | ||||
| General government expenditure | 16.6 | 16.6 | 16.7 | 16.7 | 16.8 | 16.8 | 16.8 | 16.8 | ||||
| General government balance | -2.5 | -1.8 | -1.8 | -1.8 | -1.8 | -1.8 | -1.8 | -1.8 | ||||
| General government primary balance | -0.9 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.3 | ||||
| General government debt | 29.4 | 30.1 | 30.2 | 29.9 | 29.9 | 29.8 | 29.7 | 29.5 | ||||
| Balance of payments (billions of U.S. dollars) | ||||||||||||
| Current account balance | -16.2 | -31.1 | -31.7 | -34.0 | -34.7 | -36.6 | -38.7 | -41.5 | ||||
| In percent of GDP | -1.6 | -3.0 | -2.9 | -2.8 | -2.7 | -2.6 | -2.6 | -2.6 | ||||
| Trade balance | 18.8 | -0.4 | -4.6 | -0.6 | 2.4 | 6.9 | 11.3 | 11.3 | ||||
| In percent of GDP | 1.9 | 0.0 | -0.4 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | ||||
| Of which : Oil and gas (net) | -7.3 | -11.6 | -16.3 | -17.0 | -18.6 | -21.2 | -24.9 | -32.5 | ||||
| Service balance (percent of GDP) | -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.9 | -0.9 | -0.9 | -0.9 | ||||
| Overall balance | 11.6 | -7.1 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 8.5 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 10.8 | ||||
| Gross reserves | ||||||||||||
| In billions of U.S. dollars (end period) | 130.2 | 120.7 | 122.2 | 125.3 | 133.8 | 143.8 | 153.3 | 164.1 | ||||
| In months of prospective imports | 7.2 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 7.3 | ||||
| As a percent of short-term debt 3/ | 237.5 | 202.6 | 185.3 | 172.2 | 167.9 | 165.7 | 163.0 | 160.8 | ||||
| Total external debt | ||||||||||||
| In billions of U.S. dollars | 352.5 | 376.8 | 414.8 | 454.9 | 496.1 | 537.4 | 578.9 | 623.9 | ||||
| In percent of GDP | 34.7 | 36.9 | 37.7 | 37.7 | 38.2 | 38.6 | 38.8 | 39.0 | ||||
| Credit | ||||||||||||
| Private sector credit growth (percent) | 8.7 | 12.0 | 12.3 | 12.4 | 12.5 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 12.5 | ||||
| Credit-to-GDP gap (percent) 4/ | -1.3 | -1.2 | -0.7 | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | ||||
| Memorandum items: | ||||||||||||
| Oil production (thousands of barrels per day) | 815 | 800 | 740 | 710 | 707 | 704 | 701 | 698 | ||||
| Indonesian oil price (period average, in U.S. dollars per barrel) | 51.2 | 66.9 | 64.4 | 63.0 | 59.7 | 57.6 | 56.6 | 56.3 | ||||
| Nominal GDP (trillions of rupiah) | 13,587 | 14,826 | 16,047 | 17,432 | 18,885 | 20,489 | 22,228 | 24,113 | ||||
| Nominal GDP (billions of U.S. dollars) | 1,015 | 1,022 | … | … | … | … | … | … | ||||
Includes NPISH consumption.
Contribution to GDP growth.
Short-term debt on a remaining maturity basis.
Follows the guidance of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision.
Indonesia: Summary of Central Government Operations, 2014–20
(In trillions of rupiah)
Some social assistance spending was reclassified to other expenditure in 2016.
Special purpose transfers (DAK) for physical infrastructure and Village Fund transfers. Starting 2017, 25 percent of general transfer and revenue sharing is included.
Indonesia: Summary of Central Government Operations, 2014–20
(In trillions of rupiah)
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prel. | Proj. | Budget | Proj. | |||||||||
| Revenues and grants | 1,550 | 1,508 | 1,556 | 1,666 | 1,942 | 2,093 | 2,165 | 2,287 | ||||
| Of which: tax revenues | 1,147 | 1,240 | 1,285 | 1,344 | 1,521 | 1,684 | 1,786 | 1,855 | ||||
| Oil and gas revenues | 304 | 128 | 81 | 132 | 208 | 160 | 226 | 156 | ||||
| Tax revenues | 87 | 50 | 36 | 50 | 65 | 52 | 66 | 51 | ||||
| Nontax revenues | 217 | 78 | 45 | 82 | 143 | 108 | 160 | 105 | ||||
| Non-oil and gas revenues | 1,241 | 1,368 | 1,466 | 1,523 | 1,720 | 1,918 | 1,939 | 2,115 | ||||
| Tax revenues | 1,059 | 1,191 | 1,249 | 1,293 | 1,457 | 1,632 | 1,720 | 1,805 | ||||
| Income tax | 459 | 553 | 630 | 596 | 687 | 762 | 828 | 835 | ||||
| Of which: tax amnesty | 114 | 25 | 57 | 0 | … | 0 | ||||||
| VAT | 409 | 424 | 412 | 481 | 538 | 621 | 655 | 698 | ||||
| Other | 192 | 214 | 207 | 216 | 232 | 250 | 237 | 272 | ||||
| Nontax revenues | 182 | 177 | 217 | 229 | 264 | 286 | 219 | 310 | ||||
| Grants | 5 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 0 | 16 | ||||
| Expenditure and net lending | 1,777 | 1,808 | 1,864 | 2,007 | 2,202 | 2,388 | 2,461 | 2,604 | ||||
| Current expenditure | 958 | 871 | 935 | 1,001 | 1,176 | 1,263 | 1,353 | 1,374 | ||||
| Personnel | 244 | 281 | 305 | 313 | 347 | 379 | 381 | 415 | ||||
| Subsidies | 392 | 186 | 174 | 166 | 217 | 223 | 224 | 247 | ||||
| Of which: energy subsidies | 342 | 119 | 107 | 98 | 154 | 154 | 160 | 173 | ||||
| Fuel | 240 | 61 | 44 | 47 | 97 | 104 | 101 | 110 | ||||
| Electricity | 102 | 58 | 63 | 51 | 57 | 50 | 59 | 63 | ||||
| Interest | 133 | 156 | 183 | 217 | 258 | 278 | 276 | 296 | ||||
| Other | 189 | 248 | 273 | 306 | 354 | 383 | 472 | 416 | ||||
| Development expenditure | 245 | 314 | 219 | 264 | 269 | 305 | 281 | 340 | ||||
| Capital spending | 147 | 217 | 169 | 209 | 185 | 203 | 179 | 229 | ||||
| Social assistance spending 1/ | 98 | 97 | 50 | 55 | 84 | 102 | 102 | 111 | ||||
| Transfers to local governments | 574 | 623 | 710 | 742 | 758 | 820 | 827 | 890 | ||||
| Of which: transfers for infrastructure 2/ | 32 | 39 | 101 | 239 | 248 | 268 | 270 | 291 | ||||
| Overall balance | -227 | -300 | -308 | -341 | -260 | -295 | -296 | -317 | ||||
| Financing | 227 | 300 | 308 | 341 | 260 | 295 | 296 | 317 | ||||
| Net issuance of government securities | 274 | 367 | 408 | 442 | 358 | 396 | 389 | 425 | ||||
| Program and project loans (net) | -12 | 15 | -11 | -13 | -1 | -30 | 60 | -38 | ||||
| SOE recapitalization and land acquisition | … | -60 | -91 | -60 | -66 | -65 | -76 | -65 | ||||
| Other | -35 | -23 | 2 | -28 | -32 | -6 | -77 | -6 | ||||
Some social assistance spending was reclassified to other expenditure in 2016.
Special purpose transfers (DAK) for physical infrastructure and Village Fund transfers. Starting 2017, 25 percent of general transfer and revenue sharing is included.
Indonesia: Summary of Central Government Operations, 2014–20
(In trillions of rupiah)
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prel. | Proj. | Budget | Proj. | |||||||||
| Revenues and grants | 1,550 | 1,508 | 1,556 | 1,666 | 1,942 | 2,093 | 2,165 | 2,287 | ||||
| Of which: tax revenues | 1,147 | 1,240 | 1,285 | 1,344 | 1,521 | 1,684 | 1,786 | 1,855 | ||||
| Oil and gas revenues | 304 | 128 | 81 | 132 | 208 | 160 | 226 | 156 | ||||
| Tax revenues | 87 | 50 | 36 | 50 | 65 | 52 | 66 | 51 | ||||
| Nontax revenues | 217 | 78 | 45 | 82 | 143 | 108 | 160 | 105 | ||||
| Non-oil and gas revenues | 1,241 | 1,368 | 1,466 | 1,523 | 1,720 | 1,918 | 1,939 | 2,115 | ||||
| Tax revenues | 1,059 | 1,191 | 1,249 | 1,293 | 1,457 | 1,632 | 1,720 | 1,805 | ||||
| Income tax | 459 | 553 | 630 | 596 | 687 | 762 | 828 | 835 | ||||
| Of which: tax amnesty | 114 | 25 | 57 | 0 | … | 0 | ||||||
| VAT | 409 | 424 | 412 | 481 | 538 | 621 | 655 | 698 | ||||
| Other | 192 | 214 | 207 | 216 | 232 | 250 | 237 | 272 | ||||
| Nontax revenues | 182 | 177 | 217 | 229 | 264 | 286 | 219 | 310 | ||||
| Grants | 5 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 0 | 16 | ||||
| Expenditure and net lending | 1,777 | 1,808 | 1,864 | 2,007 | 2,202 | 2,388 | 2,461 | 2,604 | ||||
| Current expenditure | 958 | 871 | 935 | 1,001 | 1,176 | 1,263 | 1,353 | 1,374 | ||||
| Personnel | 244 | 281 | 305 | 313 | 347 | 379 | 381 | 415 | ||||
| Subsidies | 392 | 186 | 174 | 166 | 217 | 223 | 224 | 247 | ||||
| Of which: energy subsidies | 342 | 119 | 107 | 98 | 154 | 154 | 160 | 173 | ||||
| Fuel | 240 | 61 | 44 | 47 | 97 | 104 | 101 | 110 | ||||
| Electricity | 102 | 58 | 63 | 51 | 57 | 50 | 59 | 63 | ||||
| Interest | 133 | 156 | 183 | 217 | 258 | 278 | 276 | 296 | ||||
| Other | 189 | 248 | 273 | 306 | 354 | 383 | 472 | 416 | ||||
| Development expenditure | 245 | 314 | 219 | 264 | 269 | 305 | 281 | 340 | ||||
| Capital spending | 147 | 217 | 169 | 209 | 185 | 203 | 179 | 229 | ||||
| Social assistance spending 1/ | 98 | 97 | 50 | 55 | 84 | 102 | 102 | 111 | ||||
| Transfers to local governments | 574 | 623 | 710 | 742 | 758 | 820 | 827 | 890 | ||||
| Of which: transfers for infrastructure 2/ | 32 | 39 | 101 | 239 | 248 | 268 | 270 | 291 | ||||
| Overall balance | -227 | -300 | -308 | -341 | -260 | -295 | -296 | -317 | ||||
| Financing | 227 | 300 | 308 | 341 | 260 | 295 | 296 | 317 | ||||
| Net issuance of government securities | 274 | 367 | 408 | 442 | 358 | 396 | 389 | 425 | ||||
| Program and project loans (net) | -12 | 15 | -11 | -13 | -1 | -30 | 60 | -38 | ||||
| SOE recapitalization and land acquisition | … | -60 | -91 | -60 | -66 | -65 | -76 | -65 | ||||
| Other | -35 | -23 | 2 | -28 | -32 | -6 | -77 | -6 | ||||
Some social assistance spending was reclassified to other expenditure in 2016.
Special purpose transfers (DAK) for physical infrastructure and Village Fund transfers. Starting 2017, 25 percent of general transfer and revenue sharing is included.
Indonesia: Summary of Central Government Operations, 2014–20
(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
Some social assistance spending was reclassified to other expenditure in 2016.
Special purpose transfers (DAK) for physical infrastructure and Village Fund transfers. Starting 2017, 25 percent of general transfer and revenue sharing is included.
Sum of capital spending and transfers for infrastructure.
Indonesia: Summary of Central Government Operations, 2014–20
(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prel. | Proj. | Budget | Proj. | |||||||||
| Revenues and grants | 14.7 | 13.1 | 12.5 | 12.3 | 13.1 | 13.0 | 13.4 | 13.1 | ||||
| Of which: tax revenues | 10.9 | 10.8 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 10.3 | 10.5 | 11.1 | 10.7 | ||||
| Oil and gas revenues | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | ||||
| Tax revenues | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | ||||
| Nontax revenues | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | ||||
| Non-oil and gas revenues | 11.7 | 11.9 | 11.8 | 11.2 | 11.6 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.1 | ||||
| Tax revenues | 10.0 | 10.3 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 10.2 | 10.7 | 10.4 | ||||
| Income tax | 4.3 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 4.8 | ||||
| Of which: tax amnesty | … | … | 0.9 | 0.2 | … | … | … | … | ||||
| VAT | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.0 | ||||
| Other | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.6 | ||||
| Nontax revenues | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.8 | ||||
| Grants | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | ||||
| Expenditure and net lending | 16.8 | 15.7 | 15.0 | 14.8 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 15.3 | 15.0 | ||||
| Current expenditure | 9.1 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 7.9 | ||||
| Personnel | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | ||||
| Subsidies | 3.7 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | ||||
| Of which: energy subsidies | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | ||||
| Fuel | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | ||||
| Electricity | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | ||||
| Interest | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | ||||
| Other | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 2.4 | ||||
| Development expenditure | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 2.0 | ||||
| Capital spending | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | ||||
| Social assistance spending 1/ | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | ||||
| Transfers to local governments | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | ||||
| Of which: transfers for infrastructure 2/ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | ||||
| Overall balance | -2.1 | -2.6 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -1.8 | -1.8 | -1.8 | -1.8 | ||||
| Financing | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | ||||
| Memorandum items: | ||||||||||||
| Net issuance of government securities (in trillions of rupiah) | 274 | 367 | 408 | 442 | 358 | 396 | 389 | 425 | ||||
| SOE recapitalization and land acquisition (in trillions of rupiah) | … | 65 | 91 | 60 | 66 | 65 | 76 | 76 | ||||
| Primary balance (percent of GDP) | -0.9 | -1.2 | -1.0 | -0.9 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | ||||
| Cyclically-adjusted primary balance (percent of GDP) | -1.0 | -1.3 | -1.0 | -0.8 | 0.0 | -0.1 | … | -0.1 | ||||
| Capital spending and transfers (percent of GDP) 3/ | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 3.0 | ||||
| General government debt (percent of GDP) | 24.7 | 27.0 | 28.0 | 29.4 | 30.1 | 30.2 | … | 29.9 | ||||
| Indonesian crude oil price (US$ per barrel) | 96.5 | 49.2 | 40.2 | 51.2 | 66.9 | 64.4 | 70 | 63.0 | ||||
| Oil production (thousands of barrels per day) | 794 | 800 | 820 | 815 | 800 | 740 | 775 | 710 | ||||
| Nominal GDP (in trillions of rupiah) | 10,570 | 11,526 | 12,402 | 13,587 | 14,826 | 16,047 | 16,125 | 17,409 | ||||
Some social assistance spending was reclassified to other expenditure in 2016.
Special purpose transfers (DAK) for physical infrastructure and Village Fund transfers. Starting 2017, 25 percent of general transfer and revenue sharing is included.
Sum of capital spending and transfers for infrastructure.
Indonesia: Summary of Central Government Operations, 2014–20
(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prel. | Proj. | Budget | Proj. | |||||||||
| Revenues and grants | 14.7 | 13.1 | 12.5 | 12.3 | 13.1 | 13.0 | 13.4 | 13.1 | ||||
| Of which: tax revenues | 10.9 | 10.8 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 10.3 | 10.5 | 11.1 | 10.7 | ||||
| Oil and gas revenues | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | ||||
| Tax revenues | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | ||||
| Nontax revenues | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | ||||
| Non-oil and gas revenues | 11.7 | 11.9 | 11.8 | 11.2 | 11.6 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.1 | ||||
| Tax revenues | 10.0 | 10.3 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 10.2 | 10.7 | 10.4 | ||||
| Income tax | 4.3 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 4.8 | ||||
| Of which: tax amnesty | … | … | 0.9 | 0.2 | … | … | … | … | ||||
| VAT | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.0 | ||||
| Other | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.6 | ||||
| Nontax revenues | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.8 | ||||
| Grants | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | ||||
| Expenditure and net lending | 16.8 | 15.7 | 15.0 | 14.8 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 15.3 | 15.0 | ||||
| Current expenditure | 9.1 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 7.9 | ||||
| Personnel | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | ||||
| Subsidies | 3.7 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | ||||
| Of which: energy subsidies | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | ||||
| Fuel | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | ||||
| Electricity | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | ||||
| Interest | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | ||||
| Other | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 2.4 | ||||
| Development expenditure | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 2.0 | ||||
| Capital spending | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | ||||
| Social assistance spending 1/ | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | ||||
| Transfers to local governments | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | ||||
| Of which: transfers for infrastructure 2/ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | ||||
| Overall balance | -2.1 | -2.6 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -1.8 | -1.8 | -1.8 | -1.8 | ||||
| Financing | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | ||||
| Memorandum items: | ||||||||||||
| Net issuance of government securities (in trillions of rupiah) | 274 | 367 | 408 | 442 | 358 | 396 | 389 | 425 | ||||
| SOE recapitalization and land acquisition (in trillions of rupiah) | … | 65 | 91 | 60 | 66 | 65 | 76 | 76 | ||||
| Primary balance (percent of GDP) | -0.9 | -1.2 | -1.0 | -0.9 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | ||||
| Cyclically-adjusted primary balance (percent of GDP) | -1.0 | -1.3 | -1.0 | -0.8 | 0.0 | -0.1 | … | -0.1 | ||||
| Capital spending and transfers (percent of GDP) 3/ | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 3.0 | ||||
| General government debt (percent of GDP) | 24.7 | 27.0 | 28.0 | 29.4 | 30.1 | 30.2 | … | 29.9 | ||||
| Indonesian crude oil price (US$ per barrel) | 96.5 | 49.2 | 40.2 | 51.2 | 66.9 | 64.4 | 70 | 63.0 | ||||
| Oil production (thousands of barrels per day) | 794 | 800 | 820 | 815 | 800 | 740 | 775 | 710 | ||||
| Nominal GDP (in trillions of rupiah) | 10,570 | 11,526 | 12,402 | 13,587 | 14,826 | 16,047 | 16,125 | 17,409 | ||||
Some social assistance spending was reclassified to other expenditure in 2016.
Special purpose transfers (DAK) for physical infrastructure and Village Fund transfers. Starting 2017, 25 percent of general transfer and revenue sharing is included.
Sum of capital spending and transfers for infrastructure.
Indonesia: Summary of General Government Operations, 2014–20
Indonesia: Summary of General Government Operations, 2014–20
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 Prel. | 2019 Proj. | 2020 Proj. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (In trillions of rupiah) | ||||||||||
| Total revenue and grants | 1,740 | 1,715 | 1,778 | 1,910 | 2,208 | 2,381 | 2,599 | |||
| Taxes | 1,274 | 1,379 | 1,434 | 1,506 | 1,699 | 1,877 | 2,064 | |||
| Taxes on income, profits, and capital gains | 546 | 602 | 666 | 647 | 752 | 814 | 885 | |||
| Taxes on goods and services | 527 | 568 | 556 | 634 | 698 | 794 | 888 | |||
| VAT and luxury taxes | 409 | 424 | 412 | 481 | 538 | 621 | 698 | |||
| Excise | 118 | 145 | 144 | 153 | 160 | 173 | 190 | |||
| Taxes on international trade and transactions | 44 | 35 | 35 | 39 | 46 | 49 | 53 | |||
| Taxes not elsewhere classified | 157 | 173 | 176 | 186 | 204 | 220 | 238 | |||
| Grants | 5 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 16 | |||
| Other revenue | 461 | 324 | 335 | 392 | 495 | 489 | 518 | |||
| Total expenditure | 1,967 | 2,015 | 2,086 | 2,251 | 2,468 | 2,676 | 2,916 | |||
| Expense | 1,642 | 1,605 | 1,645 | 1,735 | 1,938 | 2,088 | 2,257 | |||
| Of which : | ||||||||||
| Compensation of employees | 564 | 630 | 681 | 724 | 796 | 865 | 943 | |||
| Purchases/use of goods and services | 177 | 233 | 260 | 291 | 337 | 365 | 396 | |||
| Interest | 133 | 156 | 183 | 217 | 258 | 278 | 296 | |||
| Energy subsidies | 342 | 119 | 107 | 98 | 154 | 154 | 173 | |||
| Social benefit | 110 | 112 | 68 | 79 | 112 | 136 | 151 | |||
| Net acquisition of nonfinancial assets | 324 | 410 | 441 | 516 | 530 | 588 | 659 | |||
| Net lending/borrowing | -227 | -300 | -308 | -341 | -260 | -295 | -317 | |||
| Net acquisition of financial assets | 35 | 82 | 89 | 61 | 41 | 71 | 71 | |||
| Of which : policy lending | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Net incurrence of liabilities | 262 | 382 | 397 | 402 | 300 | 366 | 388 | |||
| (In percent of GDP) | ||||||||||
| Total revenue and grants | 16.5 | 14.9 | 14.3 | 14.1 | 14.9 | 14.8 | 14.9 | |||
| Taxes | 12.0 | 12.0 | 11.6 | 11.1 | 11.5 | 11.7 | 11.9 | |||
| Taxes on income, profits, and capital gains | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | |||
| Taxes on goods and services | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 5.1 | |||
| VAT and luxury taxes | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.0 | |||
| Excise | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | |||
| Taxes on international trade and transactions | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | |||
| Taxes not elsewhere classified | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | |||
| Grants | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | |||
| Other revenue | 4.4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | |||
| Total expenditure | 18.6 | 17.5 | 16.8 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 16.7 | 16.7 | |||
| Expense | 15.5 | 13.9 | 13.3 | 12.8 | 13.1 | 13.0 | 13.0 | |||
| Of which : | ||||||||||
| Compensation of employees | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | |||
| Purchases/use of goods and services | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | |||
| Interest | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | |||
| Energy subsidies | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | |||
| Social benefit | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | |||
| Net acquisition of nonfinancial assets | 3.1 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | |||
| Net lending/borrowing | -2.1 | -2.6 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -1.8 | -1.8 | -1.8 | |||
| Net acquisition of financial assets | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | |||
| Of which : policy lending | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Net incurrence of liabilities | 2.5 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.2 | |||
| Memorandum items: | ||||||||||