Front Matter Page
IMF Country Report No. 19/239
NIGER
2019 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION, FOURTH REVIEW UNDER THE EXTENDED CREDIT FACILITY, AND REQUESTS FOR WAIVER OF NONOBSERVANCE OF A PERFORMANCE CRITERION, MODIFICATION OF PERFORMANCE CRITERIA, AND EXTENSION AND REPHASING OF THE EXTENDED CREDIT FACILITY ARRANGEMENT—PRESS RELEASE, STAFF REPORT AND STATEMENT BY THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR FOR NIGER
July 2019
In the context of the Article IV Consultation and fourth review under the Extended Credit Facility, the following documents have been released and are included in this package:
A Press Release including a statement by the Chair of the Executive Board and summarizing the views of the Executive Board as expressed during its June 26, 2019 consideration of the staff report on issues related to the Article IV Consultation and the IMF arrangement
The Staff Report prepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’s consideration on June 26, 2019 following discussions that ended on May 28, 2019 with the officials of Niger on economic developments and policies. Based on information available at the time of these discussions, the staff report was completed on June 13, 2019.
An Informational Annex prepared by the IMF staff.
A Debt Sustainability Analysis prepared by the staffs of the IMF and the International Development Association (IDA).
A Statement by the Executive Director for Niger.
The documents listed below have been or will be separately released:
Letter of Intent sent to the IMF by the authorities of Niger*
Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies by the authorities of Niger *
Technical Memorandum of Understanding*
Selected Issues
*Also included in Staff Report
© 2019 International Monetary Fund
The IMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information and premature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports and other documents.
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Front Matter Page
NIGER
STAFF REPORT FOR THE 2019 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION, FOURTH REVIEW UNDER THE EXTENDED CREDIT FACILITY, AND REQUESTS FOR WAIVER OF NONOBSERVANCE OF A PERFORMANCE CRITERION, MODIFICATION OF PERFORMANCE CRITERIA, AND EXTENSION AND REPHASING OF THE EXTENDED CREDIT FACILITY ARRANGEMENT
June 13, 2019
Executive Summary
Context. Niger faces daunting development challenges, aggravated by terrorist incursions, low uranium export prices, and climate change. Nonetheless, GDP growth picked up to 6.5 percent last year- and should average above 7 percent over the next five years thanks to reforms, substantial donor support, several large-scale projects, and a one-time boost from the projected commencement of crude oil exports in 2022.
Economic developments. Fiscal policy remains on consolidation course to keep public debt in check and with a view to complying with the WAEMU ceiling of 3 percent of GDP for the fiscal deficit in 2020. The external deficit is large, reflecting Niger’s pressing development and security needs and donor support. It is set to widen further during the construction phase of major import-intensive projects but will decline sharply once they come on stream.
Program performance. Program implementation has been broadly satisfactory. All quantitative targets for end-December 2018 and end-March 2019 were met, except for clearing all domestic payment arrears at end-December and also the continuous domestic arrears target for 2019, reflecting intermittent tightness in regional bond markets. A substantial down-payment came in June and a revised treasury plan to clear all remaining arrears by October is a prior action. The structural reform agenda is advancing reasonably well, but implementation of revenue enhancing reforms should be reinforced. Formalization of performance plans for revenue administrations is also a prior action.
Policy discussion. Improving public finances, mobilizing revenues, and improving spending quality remain high on the agenda. The Article IV consultation focused on ways to jump-start Niger’s still embryonic local formal private sector and how to best foster good governance.
Risks. Results could be undermined by implementation challenges and deteriorating security conditions. On the upside, the confluence of reforms, scaled-up donor support, and the start of several large-scale projects could set off a stronger-than-projected virtuous cycle.
Staff views. Staff supports the conclusion of the fourth review, which will result in the disbursement of SDR 33.84 million.
Approved By
David Owen and Johannes Wiegand
Discussions were held in Niamey from May 15–28, 2019. The mission comprised Mr. Klingen (head), Mr. Keller, Mr. Staines, Ms. Woldemichael, Mr. Cangul (Resident Representative), Mr. Abdou (local economist) (all AFR), and Mr. de Bidegain (FAD). Ms. Pilouzoue (AFR) provided administrative assistance at headquarters.
Contents
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS, PROGRAM PERFORMANCE AND OUTLOOK
A. Recent Developments and Program Performance
B. Outlook and Risks
POLICY DISCUSSIONS
A. Program Issues
B. Private Sector Development
C. Fostering Good Governance and Tackling Corruption
PROGRAM MODALITIES
STAFF APPRAISAL
BOX
1. Macroeconomic Significance of the Oil Export Pipeline
FIGURES
1. Niger: Recent Economic Developments and Outlook
2. Fiscal Developments 2013–18
3. GDP Composition and Output Volatility
4. Tax Performance, 2014–18
5. Indicators of Financial Inclusion
6. Key Indicators of the Microfinance Sector, 2011–18
7. Demographics
TABLES
1. Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2016–24
2. Financial Operations of the Central Government, 2016–24 (In billions of CFA francs)
3. Financial Operations of the Central Government, 2016–24 (In percent of GDP)
4. Monetary Survey, 2016–24
5. Balance of Payments, 2016–24; (In billions of CFA francs)
6. Balance of Payments, 2016–24, (In percent of GDP)
7. Indicators of Financial Soundness, Dec. 2012–Jun. 2018
8. Indicators of Capacity to Repay the Fund, 2018–28
ANNEXES
I. Capacity Development Strategy Note
II. External Sector Assessment
III. Economic Impact of Security Tensions
IV. Economic Significance of the Natural Resource Sector
V. Risk Assessment Matrix
VI. Status of Key 2016 Article IV Consultation Recommendations
APPENDIX
I. Letter of Intent
Attachment I. Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies of the Government of Niger
Attachment II. Technical Memorandum of Understanding
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NIGER
STAFF REPORT FOR THE 2019 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION, FOURTH REVIEW UNDER THE EXTENDED CREDIT FACILITY, AND REQUESTS FOR WAIVER OF NONOBSERVANCE OF A PERFORMANCE CRITERION, MODIFICATION OF PERFORMANCE CRITERIA, AND EXTENSION AND REPHASING OF THE EXTENDED CREDIT FACILITY ARRANGEMENT—INFORMATIONAL ANNEX
June 13, 2019
Prepared By
African Department
(In consultation with other Departments)
Contents
RELATIONS WITH THE FUND
RELATIONS WITH OTHER INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS STATISTICAL ISSUES
Front Matter Page
NIGER
STAFF REPORT FOR THE 2019 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION, FOURTH REVIEW UNDER THE EXTENDED CREDIT FACILITY, AND REQUESTS FOR WAIVER OF NONOBSERVANCE OF A PERFORMANCE CRITERION, MODIFICATION OF PERFORMANCE CRITERIA, AND EXTENSION AND REPHASING OF THE EXTENDED CREDIT FACILITY ARRANGEMENT—DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS
June 13, 2019
Approved By
David Owen (AFR), Johannes Wiegand (SPR), and Marcello Estevao (IDA)
Prepared by the staffs of the International Monetary Fund and the International Development Association.
Front Matter Page
Press Release No. 19/247
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
June 26, 2019
International Monetary Fund
Washington, D.C. 20431 USA
Telephone 202–623–7100
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