Abstract
IMF Country Report No. 19/167
Contents
IMF Country Report No. 19/167
June 2019
This Selected Issues paper on the Republic of Mozambique was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on May 15, 2019.
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© 2019 International Monetary Fund
Contents
REPUBLIC OF MOZAMBIQUE
SELECTED ISSUES
May 15, 2019
Approved By
African Department
Prepared by Ari Aisen, Mokhtar Benlamine, Naly Carvalho, Moataz El Said, Edson Manguinhane (all AFR), Pedro Munguambe, Pinho Ribeiro (all BM) and Harold Zavarce (AFR). Ms. Aliu assisted in the preparation of this report.
Contents
MOZAMBIQUE’S NATRUAL GAS RESOURCES: TRADEOFFS AND OPPORTUNITIES
A. Background
B. Macroeconomic Impact of Natural Gas Production
C. The DIGNAR Model and Alternative Public Investment Approaches
D. LNG Production and Price Scenarios
E. Results
F. Main Findings
References
BOX
1. Liquified Natural Gas 101 (LNG)
FIGURES
1. Global Natural Gas Reserves, Producers, and Mozambique Production Areas
2. LNG Exporting and Importing Countries, 2017
3. Mozambique Selected Macroeconomic Indicators
4. LNG Production and Price Scenarios (2023–2063)
5. Resource Revenues and Stabilization Fund
6. Public Investment and Investment Efficiency
7. Tax Rate, Private Consumption, Investment, Non-Resource Output
8. Real Exchange Rate
9. Total Public Debt
APPENDIX
I. Calibration: Parameters and Assumptions
Contents
NEUTRAL REAL INTEREST RATES ESTIMATES FOR MOZAMBIQUE
A. Introduction
B. Static Approaches
C. Dynamic Approaches
D. Main Findings
References
TABLES
1. Neutral Real Interest Rate Summary Results
2. Neutral Real Interest Rate Based on Consumption Smoothing Models
3. Neutral Real Interest Rate from Interest Rate Parity
4. Neutral Real Interest Rate Filters Results