Abstract
2019 Article IV Consultation-Press release; Staff Report; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Samoa
This statement contains information that has become available since the staff report was circulated to the Executive Board. This information does not alter the thrust of the staff appraisal.
1. On April 1, Samoa’s Bureau of Statistics published revised GDP statistics, reflecting rebasing and an improved methodology. Under the revision, nominal GDP levels and real GDP growth are lower for recent fiscal years, reflecting in part a downward revision of GDP contribution from the manufacturing sector. As with the previous real GDP series, the revised real GDP series indicates slowing growth in recent years. The revision improves the quality of GDP statistics through the adoption of the System of National Accounts 2008, a change in the base year from 2009 to 2013, and an upgrade of the UN International Standard Industrial Classification from Revision 3.1 to Revision 4. The revised methodology also relies more on data from the Value Added Goods and Service Tax system, and incorporates the latest benchmarks from the 2013 Household Income and Expenditure Survey, the 2013 Business Activity Survey, and the 2016 Population Census.
Samoa: Revisions to Nominal GDP and Real GDP Growth
(In millions of tala or percent)
Samoa: Revisions to Nominal GDP and Real GDP Growth
(In millions of tala or percent)
| 2015/16 | 2016/17 | 2017/13 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nominal GDP (new) | 2089.3 | 2109.4 | 2105.7 |
| Nominal GDP (old) | 2055.3 | 2133.2 | 2213.5 |
| Real GDP growth (new) | 8.1 | 1.0 | -2.2 |
| Real GDP growth (old) | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
Samoa: Revisions to Nominal GDP and Real GDP Growth
(In millions of tala or percent)
| 2015/16 | 2016/17 | 2017/13 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nominal GDP (new) | 2089.3 | 2109.4 | 2105.7 |
| Nominal GDP (old) | 2055.3 | 2133.2 | 2213.5 |
| Real GDP growth (new) | 8.1 | 1.0 | -2.2 |
| Real GDP growth (old) | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
2. Recent data releases indicate a pickup in real GDP growth and inflation. Under the revised GDP, real GDP grew by 6 percent in the quarter ending December 2018, compared to the same quarter in 2017. This follows real GDP growth of 2.5 percent in the quarter ending September 2018. The pickup was driven by the commerce, communication, and construction sectors. The average CPI inflation rate for the year ending March 2019 was 3.4 percent, compared with 2.7 percent in March 2018, partly reflecting an increase in prices of electricity, local foods, and telephone calls.
3. Net exports and international reserves continue to expand. Preliminary trade data for February 2019 show a decrease in imports by about 10 percent and an increase in exports by about 30 percent, when compared to February 2018. As a result, international reserves increased to US$186.3 million (about 4.8 months of next year’s imports of goods and services) in February 2019, up from 4.7 months of next year’s imports in January 2019. Capital inflows to Samoa in 2018 were mostly official capital transfers, which reached US$25 million (equivalent to about 3 percent of GDP). The Samoan tala remains near its January 2019 levels, at about 2.6 tala to the U.S. dollar, while there has been no change in the real effective exchange rate thus far in 2019.