Front Matter Page

IMF Country Report No. 19/93

NIGERIA SELECTED ISSUES

This Selected Issues paper on Nigeria was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on March 13, 2019.

April 2019

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Front Matter Page

NIGERIA SELECTED ISSUES

March 13, 2019

Approved By

African Department

Contents

• GOVERNANCE IN NIGERIA: FOCUS ON THE OIL SECTOR AND AML/CFT

• A. Introduction

• B. Governance of the State-Owned Enterprise Sector

• C. Governance of the Petroleum Sector and the NNPC

• D. Using AML/CFT Tools in and beyond the SOE Sector

• E. Conclusion and Key Policy Recommendations

• BOX

• 1. Selected Challenges in PIGB

• TABLES

• 1. Elements of an Effective Ownership Policy

• 2. Required Revisions to the Legal Framework to Increase Transparency of Revenues

• 3. Steps to Increase the Transparency of Petroleum Revenue

• 4. Towards Good Practice in Budget Allocation and Documentation

• 5. Strengthening the OAuGF and National Assembly’s Oversight Functions

• 6. Strengthening the Role of the Ministry of Finance

• 7. Steps to Strengthen the Transparency of Beneficial Ownership

• 8. Steps to Strengthen Scrutiny of PEPs

• 9. Improving Asset Declaration by Public Officials

• 10. Strengthening AML/CFT Supervision of FIs, BDCs

• 11. Maintaining Momentum Generated by the NFIU Act

• 12. Advancing the Effective Prosecution and Timely Conclusion of Corruption-Related Cases

• References

• FUEL SUBSIDIES-LATEST INCREASE AND IMPLICATIONS OF A CHANGE IN THE REGULATED GASOLINE PRICE

• FIGURES

• 1. Selected Emerging and Developing Countries: Average Gasoline Price, 2016 vs. Latest 2018

• 2. Decomposing the Cost of One Liter of PMS

• 3. Petrol Expenditure by Income Percentile

• 4. Fares and other Transport Expenditures by Income Percentile

• 5. Distributional and Poverty Impact from a Regulatory Fuel Price Increase

• References

• ASSESSING THE COST-RISK OF INCREASING NIGERIA’S EXTERNAL DEBT

• A. Background

• B. Macroeconomic Assumptions

• C. Methodology

• D. Results of the Analysis

• E. Conclusions

• FIGURES

• 1. Cost-Risk Representation of Different Borrowing Strategies, 2022

• 2. Cost-Risk Representation of Different Borrowing Strategies, 2028

• 3. Measures of External Debt Vulnerability 2022

• 4. Measures of External Debt Vulnerability 2028

• TABLES

• 1. Cost-Risk Indicators under Different Debt Management Strategies (2022)

• 2. Cost-Risk Indicators under Different Debt Management Strategies (2028)

• ANNEX

• I. Data Requirements and Assumptions

• References

• ASSET MANAGEMENT CORPORATION OF NIGERIA (AMCON)

• A. Background

• B. Current Challenges and Implications for the Real Economy

• C. Recommendations

• FIGURE

• 1. AMCON’s Sectoral Linkages

• References

• HUMAN CAPITAL AND GENDER EQUALITY

• A. Introduction

• B. Status Quo

• C. Macroeconomic Gains from Equality of Opportunity

• D. Government Initiatives

• E. Policy Recommendations

• FIGURES

• 1. GDP per Capita (PPP) and Human Capital Index

• 2. GDP per Capita (PPP) and Public Health Expenditure

• 3. Health Indicators

• 4. Education Outcomes

• 5. Inequality in Access to Education

• 6. Impact from Different Education Scenarios

• References

• MACRO-STRUCTURAL OBSTACLES TO FIRM PERFORMANCE: EVIDENCE FROM 2,640 FIRMS IN NIGERIA

• A. Introduction

• B. An Initial Look at the Data

• C. Empirical Methodology and Results

• D. Conclusion and Policy Implications

• FIGURES

• 1. Surveyed Firms are Distributed over Different Cities

• 2. Surveyed Firms are Distributed over Different Sectors

• 3. Most Surveyed Firms are Small

• 4. Most Surveyed Firms are Sole Ownership

• 5. Most Firms Sell to National Markets; Larger Firms Have Bigger Export Shares

• 6. Most Firms are Domestically Owned; Larger Firms Report More Foreign Ownership

• 7. Firms, on Average, are 16 Years Old

• 8. Technical Skills are the Most Important

• 9. Skills is Typically not a Constraint in Hiring Women

• 10. Performance Varied Across Firm Sizes

• 11. Access to Finance is the Top Obstacle to Firm Operations

• 12. Especially in Smaller Firms

• 13. Most Firms Did Not Spend on Research and Development Recently

• 14. Better Firm Performance With More Export Diversification

• 15. Half of the Sample only Recently Improved Production Methods

• 16. Especially in Large Firms

• 17. Ease of Doing Business

• TABLES

• 1. Determinants of Access to Finance: Ordered and Binary Logit/Probit

• 2. Determinants of Export Diversification: Binary Logit/Probit

• 3. Endogenous Treatment Regression: Firm Performance

• References