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IMF Country Report No. 19/46
REPUBLIC OF CROATIA
2018 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION—PRESS RELEASE; STAFF REPORT; AND STATEMENT BY THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR FOR THE REPUBLIC OF CROATIA
February 2019
Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. In the context of the 2018 Article IV consultation with the Republic of Croatia, the following documents have been released and are included in this package:
A Press Release summarizing the views of the Executive Board as expressed during its February 8, 2019 consideration of the staff report that concluded the Article IV consultation with the Republic of Croatia.
The Staff Report prepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’s consideration on February 8, 2019, following discussions that ended on December 7, 2018, with the officials of the Republic of Croatia on economic developments and policies. Based on information available at the time of these discussions, the staff report was completed on January 23, 2019.
An Informational Annex prepared by the IMF staff.
A Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Croatia.
The documents listed below have been or will be separately released.
Selected Issues
The IMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information and premature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports and other documents.
Copies of this report are available to the public from
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International Monetary Fund
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© 2019 International Monetary Fund
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REPUBLIC OF CROATIA
STAFF REPORT FOR THE 2018 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION
January 23, 2019
Key Issues
Context: The economic expansion continues, driven primarily by private consumption and exports of goods and services. Fiscal performance has been strong, but the materialization of contingent liabilities from government guarantees is likely to reduce the overall surplus. Low public and private investment, and continued emigration weigh on medium-term growth prospects. Downside risks in the near-term stem from possible changes in regional or global economic and financial conditions, and the further realization of contingent liabilities.
Policies: As the country moves closer to ERM II entry, focus needs to be on increasing fiscal space, reviving the momentum of structural reforms, and boosting investment.
Reduce debt and invest more: Accelerating the pace of debt reduction would build fiscal space and help reduce downside risks. To achieve this in a growth-friendly way, increasing public investment, reducing the total public employment outlays, and better targeting of social benefits to the most vulnerable in society are the top priorities. Tax policy should aim at securing a more stable and progressive revenue base over time to create room to reduce high and distortionary taxes in some areas.
Make the state more dynamic: Public service reform, reduction of red tape, better use of scale economies at sub-national levels of government, and greater discipline with state-owned enterprises will make the state more efficient. Lower parafiscal fees, as well as more agile judicial and legal processes are key to enabling higher private investment and more sustainable job creation. Labor market regulation needs to be reshaped to increase the participation of the young and women, and to incentivize on-the-job-training.
Anchor stability through monetary and financial sector policies: The CNB may need to address potentially tighter external conditions while continuing with strong bank supervision and macroprudential policies. Additional measures to prevent excessive household borrowing could be considered if needed. Further corporate sector deleveraging should be facilitated, including through further efficiency enhancements to bankruptcy procedures.
Approved By
Jörg Decressin (EUR) and Yan Sun (SPR)
Discussions were held in Zagreb from November 28-December 7, 2018. The team comprised Messrs. Seshadri (head), Sakr (former head), Harrison, Lybek, Mulas-Granados, and Ms. Vtyurina (all EUR). Mr. Josic and Mr. Doornbosch (OED) joined several meetings. Mses. Batog and Samuel (EUR) assisted in the preparation of the staff report.
The staff team met with Deputy Prime Minister Tolušić, Minister of Finance Marić, Minister of Labor and Pension System Pavic, Minister of Demography, Families, Youth, and Social Policy Murganic; Governor of the Croatian National Bank Vujcic, the Fiscal Policy Committee of the Parliament; and other officials and representatives of the business community, banks and academia.
Contents
CONTEXT
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
OUTLOOK AND RISKS
POLICY DISCUSSIONS
A. Fiscal Policy: Rebuilding Space and Enhancing Growth Prospects
B. Structural Reforms: The Lever of a More Dynamic State
C. Anchoring Stability Through Monetary and Financial Sector Policies
STAFF APPRAISAL
BOXES
1. Labor Market Taxation: Considerations
2. Governance Practices and Bank Intermediation Costs
FIGURES
1. Market Sentiment and Ratings
2. Selected Real Sector Indicators
3. Banking Sector Developments
4. Corporate Debt and Agrokor’s New Ownership Structure
5. Vulnerability Indicators
6. Fiscal Developments and Projections
7. Medium-Term Fiscal Consolidation Scenarios
8. Number of Subnational Governments and Population, 2014
9. Real Estate Prices and Bank Claims on Households
10. Insolvency Costs and Operating Costs of EU Banks
11. Labor Market Outcomes
TABLES
1. Selected Economic Indicators
2. Medium-Term Baseline Scenario
3. Statement of Operations of General Government
4. Monetary Accounts
5. Financial Soundness Indicators
6. Balance of Payments
ANNEXES
I. Implementation of IMF Recommendations
II. Public Debt Sustainability Analysis
III. External Debt Sustainability Analysis
IV. External Sector Assessment
V. Risk Assessment Matrix
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REPUBLIC OF CROATIA
STAFF REPORT FOR THE 2018 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION—INFORMATIONAL ANNEX
January 23, 2019
Prepared By
European Department in Consultation with Other Departments
Contents
FUND RELATIONS
WORLD BANK RELATIONS
STATISTICAL ISSUES
Front Matter Page
Press Release No. 19/42
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
February 13, 2019
International Monetary Fund
Washington, D.C. 20431 USA
Telephone 202–623–7100
Fax 202–623–6772
