See João Amador, Sónia Cabral, and Luca David Opromolla, 2009, A Portrait of Portuguese International Trade, in The Portuguese Economy in the Context of Economic, Financial and Monetary Integration, Economics and Research Department Banco de Portugal.
Banco de Portugal, 2016, “Portuguese International Traders: Some Facts About Age, Prices and Markets,” Economic Bulletin, October 2016, Banco de Portugal.
Banco de Portugal, 2018, “Recent Developments in the Market Share of Portuguese Exports,” Box 3, Economic Bulletin, June 2018, Banco de Portugal.
Cheung, C., D. Furceri, and E. Rusticelli, 2010, “Structural and Cyclical Factors Behind Current-Account Balances,” OECD Working Paper 31.
Moral-Benito, E., and F. Viani, 2017, “An Anatomy of the Spanish Current Account Adjustment: The Role of Permanent and Transitory Factors,” Documentos de Trabajo N.º 1737 Banco de Espana, Madrid, 2017.
Prepared by Erik Lundback.
See IMF (2000), the 2000 Portugal IMF Article IV Consultation Staff Report, and IMF Staff Country Report No. 00/15.
The share of tourism in all services exports is calculated as the share of Travel exports in the balance pf payments data.
Based on World Economic Outlook data. Import demand calculated as averages of percent changes of data for individual trading partners weighted by their share in total exports or imports, as applicable, of reporting country. The relative importance of trading partners reflects trade in goods only; complete information on bilateral trade in services is not generally available. Banco de Portugal (2018) also documents increasing goods and services market shares since 2009 using somewhat different data.
The period for identifying events was limited to 30 years owing to data availability considerations.
The countries in the event study are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong SAR, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Latvia, Lithuania, Malaysia, Malta, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Singapore, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States, and Uruguay.
The comparator events were also split into sub-groups and when looking only at euro area countries the conclusions remains broadly the same.
Developments were similar for the CPI based REER, but less distinct.
The same applies to the general government budget balance.
See the 2013 IMF Working Paper, WP/13/272
The previous EBA model gives qualitatively similar results, with a lower but still significant contribution from credit during the adjustment period.