Guyana: Staff Report for the 2018 Article IV Consultation—Informational Annex

2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report

Abstract

2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report

Fund Relations

(As of April 30, 2018)

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Latest Financial Arrangements:

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Formerly PRGF.

Overdue Obligations and Projected Payments to Fund 1

(SDR Million; based on existing use of resources and present holdings of SDRs)

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Previous Decisions and Article IV Consultation Cycle:

  • On December 18, 2003, the Executive Board determined that Guyana had reached the completion point under the enhanced HIPC Initiative (IMF Country Report No. 04/123).

  • On February 27, 2009, the Executive Board concluded the 2008 Article IV consultation.

  • On March 17, 2010, the Executive Board concluded the 2009 Article IV consultation (IMF Country Report No. 10/292).

  • On February 16, 2011, the Executive Board concluded the 2010 Article IV consultation (IMF Country Report No. 11/152).

  • On November 9, 2012, the Executive Board concluded the 2012 Article IV consultation (IMF Country Report No. 12/254).

  • On December 9, 2013, the Executive Board concluded the 2013 Article IV consultation (IMF Country Report No. 14/294).

  • On May 9, 2016, the Executive Board concluded the 2016 Article IV consultation (IMF Country Report No. 16/216). Guyana is on a 12-month cycle for Article IV consultations.

  • On May 24, 2017, the Executive Board concluded the 2017 Article IV consultation (IMF Country Report No. 17/175). Guyana is on a 12-month cycle for Article IV consultations.

Safeguard Assessments

The most recent safeguards assessment of the Bank of Guyana (BoG) was completed in May 2007 in respect of the then expected PRGF arrangement. Overall the assessment noted capacity constraints, including in the internal audit function. Recommendations were made to enhance internal audit reporting and to improve external audit quality to enable compliance with International Standards on Auditing (ISA) and IFRS. In the reserves management area, staff recommended the establishment of an investment committee. The latter has been implemented. The BoG continues to be audited by the Audit Office of Guyana and the reports state compliance with ISA. The BoG’s financial statements refer to IFRS and are published.

Exchange Rate Arrangement

Guyana has accepted the obligations of Article VIII—Section 2, 3, and 4—and maintains an exchange system that does not have any multiple currency practices, and is free of restrictions on the making of payments and transfers for current international transactions, with the only exception of certain exchange restrictions for the preservation of national and international security. Guyana’s de jure exchange rate regime is floating. Guyana’s de facto exchange rate regime is classified as a stabilized arrangement. The currency of Guyana is the Guyana dollar. The exchange rate was G$208.50 per U.S. dollar on May 1, 2018.

ROSC, FSAP, EPA Participation

  • A fiscal ROSC was undertaken in July 2002.

  • A WB/IMF FSAP took place in November 2005 and concluded in September 2006.

  • Ex-Post Assessment findings were discussed with the authorities in June 2006 and concluded on October 23, 2006.

  • A WB/IMF FSAP took place in May 2016 and concluded in March 2017.

Technical Assistance

Fiscal Affairs Department

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Monetary and Capital Markets Department

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Statistics Department

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Legal Department

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Resident Representative

The office was closed in end-January 2009.

Bank-Fund Collaboration Under the Jmap and Relations with the Bank

(As of April 24, 2018)

A. Bank-Fund Collaboration Under the JMAP

The Fund and the World Bank are collaborating in responding to the Government’s request for assistance with debt management. Support has been requested from the IMF to develop the domestic debt market and ensure proper coordination with monetary policy. Guyana would benefit from strengthened capacity to formulate and implement a debt management strategy to assess the cost risk tradeoffs of the portfolio.

The World Bank Country Engagement Note (CEN), 2016–2018, was endorsed by the World Bank’s Board of Executive Directors in March 2016. The current IBRD/IDA portfolio is comprised of three projects totaling US$41.2 million.1 IFC’s committed portfolio in Guyana amounts to $0.5 million (March 2018). IFC also has four advisory services projects: (i) the Guyana Bank for Trade and Industry (GBTI) Risk Management ($0.3 million for Risk Management and SME Banking); (ii) the LAC regional Indicator-Based Reform Advisory ($2.1 million); (iii) the Caribbean Regional Credit Bureau ($2.1 million); and Trade Logistics in the Caribbean ($2.3 million). Currently, MIGA has no exposure in Guyana.

The work of the World Bank is aligned along the three main areas of the CEN.

  • Enhancing Resilience of Selected Infrastructure and Building Disaster Risk Management. The World Bank has two active projects focused on flood risk management: the IDA funded Flood Risk Management Project ($11.9 million), supporting the reduction of vulnerability of coastal areas to flooding of coastal areas; and the grant funded (Guyana REDD + Investment Fund – GRIF) Cunha Canal Rehabilitation Project (US$3 million), approved in December 2015.

  • Setting up the Foundations for High Quality Education. The Bank is helping Guyana to improve the quality of education delivered through three projects. The current two IDA projects include the Guyana Secondary Education Improvement Project (US$10 million), and the Guyana Education Sector Improvement Project (US$13.3 million). The third project, Early Childhood Education (US$1.7 million), is a grant funded by the Global Partnership for Education.

  • Laying the Ground for Private Sector Development. The World Bank is conducting work in support of the financial sector through one IDA funded project, the Guyana Payment System Project (US$6 million). Additional support includes the Guyana Payments System—Policy, Legal and Regulatory Framework via a Financial Sector Reform and Strengthening Initiative (FIRST) grant to the Bank of Guyana (US$0.3 million), a Supervisory Capacity Building and Consumer Protection grant funded project (US$0.5 million). The World Bank is also providing additional support via the following two Caribbean regional projects: the Caribbean Growth Forum, and the Entrepreneurship Program for Innovation in the Caribbean funded by a grant from Canada.

B. Financial Relations

Statement of World Bank Projects

(In millions of U.S. dollars, as of April 5, 2018)

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Amounts may not add up to original principal due to changes in the SDR/USD exchange rate since signing.

Disbursements and Debt Service

(Calendar Year)

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January – April 5, 2018

Relations with the Inter-American Development Bank

(As of March 31, 2018)

Approvals and Highlights

  • There were no new investment loans for the year 2017. On the other hand, ten new technical cooperation (TC) projects were approved in 2017 at an amount of US$4.9 million. One infrastructure loan was reformulated to support urban development including roads and low-income housing.

  • Country Strategy: A new IDB Country Strategy with Guyana was approved in November 2017 and covers the period 2017-2021.

  • Net cash flows: Net cash flows were positive ($3.6 million) in 2017. This comes after two consecutive years of negative flows in 2015 and 2016 with amounts of -$1.8 million and -$10.3 million, respectively.

TCs Approved in 2017

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2018 Program

  • For 2018, IDB investment programming will mark a full transition to the new Country Strategy with Guyana 2017– 2021. The Strategy outlines four strategic areas of interventions as: (i) establishing a modern national strategy; (ii) strengthening fiscal policies and the framework for managing natural resource revenues; (iii) facilitating private sector development to support the delivery of better services, mainly through enhancing the business environment; and (iv) delivering critical infrastructure to facilitate human and private sector development.

  • For 2018, two Investment loans and a programmatic Policy based loan with a combined total of US$38.8 million are included in the pipeline.

2018 Pipeline Projects

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  • To date, one new TC is scheduled for approval in 2018: (i) EcoMicro – IPED Green Finance for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency for MSMEs. Guyana will also benefit this year from the 2018 allocation of grant resources amounting to US$1.78 million under the Small and Vulnerable Countries Funding.

Portfolio in Execution

  • The active investment portfolio consists of eleven investment loans for an approved amount of US$225.45 million; two investment operations co-financed with EU/CIF grant resources of Euros €30.05 million (US$41.7 million); and two investment grants for US$10.00 million. These operations represent a total approved amount of US$277.15 million.

  • Undisbursed loan balances amount to US$146.9 million. The largest amounts concentrated in the Transport, Agriculture, Energy and Water & Sanitation sectors, providing support for major infrastructural works in the Country.

  • Technical Cooperation projects (grants) total US$17.95 million and comprise approximately 6 percent of the existing portfolio for Guyana. TC resources mostly support the strengthening of public sector institution and planning, contributing to capacity building for better service delivery and improvements in statistical capabilities, financial management and procurement priority areas, as well as fiduciary capabilities of Guyana.

  • Disbursements in 2017 for investment loans totalled US$25.1 million, which was 13.7 percent above the projections and tripled the amount disbursed in 2016. Equally, Investment Grants disbursements were healthy with an increase from US$7.3 million in 2016 to US$11.3 million in 2017.

  • Net cash flows were positive in 2017 for the first time in three years after two successive years of negative flows. This positive outcome stems from increased disbursements under the investment loan portfolio, considering the 20 percent increase in the level of principal repayments in 2017.

Annex. Sovereign Guaranteed Portfolio in Execution

Investment Loans

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Investment Grants (IGR)

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NET Flow of IDB Convertible Currencies

(US$ million)

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Loans in Execution as of December 31, 2017

(US$ Million)

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Investment Grants in Execution as of December 31, 2017

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TC & Grants Active Portfolio

(As at March 31, 2018)

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Investment Grants Active Portfolio

(As at March 31, 2018)

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Relations with the Caribbean Development Bank

(As of December 2017)

  • CDB remains one of Guyana’s most important development partners, accounting for over 20 percent of the country’s multilateral debt stock. Total loans approved for Guyana from CDB’s inception (January 26, 1970) to December 31, 2017 amounted to US$291.9 million, representing 6.2 percent of CDB’s total approved lending, and making Guyana CDB’s sixth largest borrower out of its 19 borrowing member countries. Guyana is also the largest recipient of grant funding from CDB after Haiti, with cumulative grant approvals amounting to US$53.2 million as of December 31, 2017.

  • Of the total amount of loans approved, outstanding balances totaled US$147.8 million as of December 31, 2017. As of that date, undisbursed balances were $25.11 million, detailed in the table below. In addition, the US$11.7 million Skills Development and Employability Project, which was approved in December 2016, remains pending.

Summary Statement of Loan Approvals and Undisbursed Balances, December 31, 2016

(In US$ million)

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Source: Caribbean Development Bank.

Loan Transactions

(In millions of U.S. Dollars)

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  • At the end of 2016, CDB’s Board approved a new CSP for 2017-2021. This had a notional resource envelope of US$194 million, including Guyana’s grant allocation of about $65 million from the United Kingdom Caribbean Infrastructure Partnership Fund (UK – CIF).1 The resource envelope reflects the emphasis of the Government of the Cooperative Republic of Guyana (GOGY) that each intervention being financed with external resources must include a grant element of at least 35 percent.

  • Technical work is being undertaken to inform the UK-CIF projects, which will include an element of blending with CDB’s Ordinary Capital Resources. These are expected to be approved in late 2018. The GOGY has also signaled its intention to utilize its allocation of Special Fund Resources to fund further infrastructure works. CDB is also grant-funding some technical assistance in development planning; strengthening the national mechanism for climate change; and estimating the likely demand for a development bank.

Statistical Issues

(As of May 20, 2018)

A. Assessment of Data Adequacy for Surveillance

General: Data provided to the Fund is broadly adequate for surveillance purposes, although timeliness, reliability, and coverage can be improved. Selected data are only available during missions and upon request. Monetary and external statistics, exchange rates and interest rates are reported to the Fund and available also from the website of the Bank of Guyana (BoG) but with certain lags. The Ministry of Finance (MOF) provides macroeconomic and fiscal statistics in annual and semiannual publications on its website in a PDF format. While specific statistics areas have received technical assistance, some limitations remain in the compilation and dissemination of data for certain sectors. Oil exploration and drilling is partially included in the balance of payment statistics, but not in the national accounts. Future technical assistance should focus on helping Guyana incorporate reliably the contribution of the oil sector in national statistics and balance of payment statistics.

National accounts: The 2017 technical assistance mission from CARTAC produced a Data Quality Assessment Framework for the national accounts system. The mission also assisted the Bureau of Statistics to develop a five-year work plan for the development of the national accounts. This will involve undertaking a new benchmarking exercise for the annual gross domestic product (GDP) estimates for the year 2018 and will require considerable support from international agencies, in terms of funding and TA. The authorities intend to rebase GDP, which will help them incorporate the effects of future oil production. The authorities commenced disseminating quarterly GDP in 2017. Future work will focus on compiling expenditure-side GDP, an Industrial Production Index and a Producer Price Index. The Bureau of Statistics (BoS) could increase the coverage of surveys, particularly with respect to the services sector. It also published the first Labor Force Survey since 2014. The BoS aims to launch All-Urban CPI, Households Budget Survey, and Living Conditions Survey later in 2018.

Government finance statistics: Fiscal statistics are disseminated through several Ministry of Finance (MOF) publications, including the Mid-Year Report on the annual budget, the Budget Speech and other budget-related documents. Technical assistance delivered by CARTAC in 2017 focused on strengthening tax administration. Technical assistance delivered by IMF in 2017 and 2018 focused on reforming and modernizing Guyana’s revenue administration, public investment management, and fiscal analysis, modelling and forecasting future petroleum revenue. Authorities plan to upgrade their fiscal statistics to reflect the impact of future petroleum revenue and to incorporate it in their future budget projections.

Monetary and financial stability statistics: The BoG has made significant progress in improving the quality of monetary statistics, especially about the institutional coverage. The monetary statistics currently include the BoG, other depositary corporations (commercial banks, the New Building Society, and trust companies), and other financial corporations (finance companies, life insurance companies, non-life insurance companies, pension funds, and asset management companies). The BoG’s monetary statistics provide data for publication in the IFS Supplement, based on standardized report forms. The BoG publishes on a regular basis prudential indicators for commercial banks, depository and non-depository nonbanks in its quarterly report and on its website. CARTAC has helped make progress with developing macro-prudential/systemic risk indicators and financial stability indicators for the insurance sector.

External sector statistics (ESS): In 2017, a follow-up mission from CARTAC assisted the BoG in strengthening the compilation and dissemination of external sector statistics. There were some improvements in the quality of balance of payments data. Progress has been made on most of the main recommendations, including implementing a pilot enterprise survey, compiling a partial international investment position (IIP), and preparing quarterly balance of payments data following the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6) format. The 2017 mission also provided hands-on guidance to major enterprises to complete and submit the survey forms. The BoG staff continues to follow up on the completion of the survey with the companies. For the IIP, beside capacity constraints at the BoG, the main data gaps include direct investment and other financial assets and liabilities of the nonfinancial private sector and public corporations. A pilot enterprise survey was conducted, but the response rate is low.

B. Data Standards and Quality

Participant in the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) since 2011. Implementation of a National Data Summary Page, a component of e-GDDS, would improve data transparency and accessibility.

C. Reporting to STA (Optional)

In 2017, the BoG submitted to STA for dissemination the quarterly balance of payments in BPM6 format, starting with data for 2015. No data are being reported for publication in the Government Finance Statistics Yearbook.

Guyana. Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance

(As of May 2018)

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Includes reserve assets pledged or otherwise encumbered as well as net derivative positions.

Balance sheet information of the Bank of Guyana and the consolidated balance sheet of the other depository corporations on standardized report forms are submitted to the Statistics Department of the IMF.

Both market-based and officially determined, including discount rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes and bonds.

Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing (partial information).

The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.

Only domestic debt, including currency and maturity composition (partial information).

Daily (D), Weekly (W), Monthly (M).

1

When a member has overdue financial obligations outstanding for more than three months, the amount of such arrears will be shown in this section.

1

Financing to Guyana is usually done at concessional rates and channeled through the International Development Association (IDA), the World Bank’s fund for the poorest, which provides interest-free loans and grants to low-income countries and through a series of trust funds managed by the World Bank. Guyana’s total IDA 17 allocation for FY15–17 was US$22.7 million. Its allocation for IDA 18 is approximately US$85 million.

1

Guyana’s allocation is GBP 53.2million. This equated to $64.6 million as at November 2, 2016, shortly before Country Strategy Paper was submitted for approval.