Abstract
First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, and Request for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria - Press Release; Staff Report
On April 13, 2018, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the first review of Chad’s economic performance under the program supported by an Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement. Completion of this review enables the immediate disbursement of SDR 35.05 million (about US$51 million). This brings total disbursements under the arrangement to SDR 70.1 million (about US$ 99.8 million). The Board also approved the authorities’ request to waive the non-observance of the continuous performance criterion on the non-accumulation of new external payments arrears, and to rephase the planned disbursements.
Chad’s ECF arrangement was originally approved by the Executive Board on June 30, 2017 (see Press Release No. 17/257) for SDR 224.32 million (about US$ 312.1 million or 160 percent of Chad’s quota). The ECF-supported program aims to help Chad restore macroeconomic stability and lay the foundation for robust and inclusive growth. It will also contribute to the regional effort to restore and preserve external stability for the Central African Economic and Monetary Union (CEMAC).
Following the Executive Board’s discussion on Chad, Mr. Mitsuhiro Furusawa, Acting Chair and Deputy Managing Director, made the following statement:
“Performance under the ECF-supported program has been satisfactory, reflecting strong commitment by the authorities. All end-June performance criteria and most end-September indicative targets were met, although small external arrears accumulated. Progress is underway on the structural reform agenda. Most structural benchmarks have been implemented (notably the submission of the National Development Plan) but the authorities should accelerate the pace of implementation.
“In February 2018 an agreement in principle was reached to restructure debt to a private external creditor, a key element of the authorities’ strategy. It is expected to yield the necessary financing for the program and firmly restore external debt sustainability.
“Moving forward, the authorities are determined to implement a comprehensive fiscal strategy to stabilize the fiscal position, foster non-oil growth, and reduce banking sector vulnerabilities. The main pillars of the strategy include (i) better managing the wage bill, (ii) paying down domestic debt and clearing domestic arrears, (iii) increasing domestic revenue mobilization, (iv) improving public financial management and (v) addressing structural weaknesses in some of the domestic banks.
“Chad’s program is supported by the implementation of policies and reforms by the regional institutions which are critical to the success of the program. These include tighter monetary policy, elimination of statutory advances, and sound bank regulation and supervision, and firm controls over the extension of credit to banks.”
Chad: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2015-2021
Program numbers reflect a no-restructuing scenario.
Projections reflect the agreement in principal to restructure the Glencore debt.
WEO simple average of crude oil price.
Chadian oil price is Brent price minus quality discount.
Changes as a percent of broad money stock at the beginning of period.
Central government, including government-guaranteed debt.
Chad: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2015-2021
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | ||||||
| Prel. | Prel. | Prog.1 | Proj.2 | Prog.1 | Proj.2 | Prog.1 | Proj.2 | Prog.1 | Proj.2 | Prog.1 | Proj.2 | |
| (Annual percentage change, unless otherwise indicated) | ||||||||||||
| Real economy | ||||||||||||
| GDP at constant prices | 1.8 | -6.4 | 0.6 | -3.1 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 4.8 |
| Oil GDP | 32.1 | -8.4 | 3.0 | -16.2 | 6.1 | 15.7 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 22.6 | 1.7 | 8.4 |
| Non-oil GDP | -2.9 | -6.0 | 0.1 | -0.5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| GDP deflator | -8.0 | -1.2 | 0.1 | -0.9 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Consumer price index (annual average) | ||||||||||||
| 6.8 | -1.1 | 0.2 | -0.9 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | |
| Oil prices | ||||||||||||
| WEO (US$/barrel)3 | 50.8 | 42.8 | 55.2 | 52.8 | 55.1 | 62.3 | 54.1 | 58.2 | 54.0 | 55.6 | 54.4 | 54.1 |
| Chadian price | ||||||||||||
| (US$/barrel)4 | 39.9 | 36.2 | 50.4 | 49.4 | 49.9 | 60.7 | 49.0 | 56.7 | 48.9 | 54.0 | 49.5 | 52.6 |
| Oil production for exportation (millions of barrels) | 47.5 | 44.4 | 46.0 | 35.9 | 49.0 | 39.1 | 52.0 | 41.1 | 55.0 | 52.1 | 56.0 | 57.1 |
| Exchange rate CFAF per | ||||||||||||
| US$ (period average) | 591.2 | 592.7 | ||||||||||
| Money and credit | ||||||||||||
| Net foreign assets | -40.3 | -38.2 | 8.9 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 9.8 | |
| Net domestic assets | 35.6 | 30.5 | -3.2 | -1.4 | 5.5 | -0.9 | 1.6 | 2.6 | -0.6 | -2.2 | -2.8 | |
| Of which: net | ||||||||||||
| claims on central | ||||||||||||
| government | 32.2 | 26.5 | -3.9 | -4.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | -0.1 | 0.4 | -1.5 | -4.5 | -4.6 | |
| Of which: credit to | ||||||||||||
| private sector | 1.1 | -2.7 | 0.7 | -1.7 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 1.8 | |
| Broad money | -4.7 | -7.7 | 5.8 | -0.9 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 7.1 | 7.0 | |
| Velocity (non-oil GDP/broad money)5 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 4.8 | |
| External sector (valued in US dollar) | ||||||||||||
| Exports of goods and services, f.o.b. | -34.0 | -15.4 | 29.4 | 10.5 | 5.7 | 26.5 | 4.6 | 0.9 | 5.7 | 16.0 | 4.0 | 6.5 |
| Imports of goods and services, f.o.b. | -23.7 | -15.3 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 20.7 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 9.8 | 3.1 | 4.9 |
| Export volume | 29.2 | -3.9 | 1.0 | -15.0 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 20.3 | 1.9 | 7.9 |
| Import volume | -21.8 | -10.4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 18.7 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 8.3 | 1.4 | 3.1 |
| Overall balance of payments (percent of GDP) | ||||||||||||
| -6.4 | -8.6 | -0.5 | -0.8 | -2.0 | 1.5 | -1.2 | 0.5 | -0.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 1.1 | |
| Current account | ||||||||||||
| balance, including official | ||||||||||||
| transfers (percent of GDP) | -12.3 | -9.2 | -2.2 | -5.2 | -3.2 | -4.3 | -3.5 | -5.5 | -3.3 | -4.9 | -3.5 | -4.9 |
| Terms of trade | -47.7 | -6.9 | 24.7 | 28.3 | -1.8 | 16.0 | -2.6 | -5.4 | -0.8 | -4.9 | 0.4 | -3.0 |
| External debt (percent of GDP)6 | 25.0 | 27.1 | 28.6 | 27.2 | 27.8 | 26.0 | 26.3 | 25.4 | 24.2 | 23.0 | 22.1 | 20.7 |
| NPV of external debt | ||||||||||||
| (percent of exports of goods and services) | 98.5 | 97.2 | 73.0 | 88.7 | 69.0 | 76.4 | 65.0 | 78.4 | 60.0 | 67.4 | 55.7 | 62.0 |
| (Percent of non-oil GDP, unless otherwise indicated) | ||||||||||||
| Government finance | ||||||||||||
| Revenue and grants | 17.1 | 14.9 | 19.9 | 16.1 | 19.2 | 18.5 | 19.2 | 17.5 | 19.5 | 18.6 | 19.0 | 18.3 |
| Of which: oil revenue | 4.9 | 3.5 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 5.7 |
| Of which: non-oil | ||||||||||||
| revenue | 8.3 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 8.8 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 9.6 |
| Expenditure | 22.9 | 18.0 | 18.8 | 17.8 | 18.5 | 17.9 | 18.7 | 18.1 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 17.5 | 17.9 |
| Current | 15.6 | 14.2 | 14.0 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 12.4 | 12.7 | 12.2 | 12.1 | 12.2 | 11.3 | 11.7 |
| Capital | 7.3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 6.2 |
| Non-oil primary | ||||||||||||
| balance (commitment basis, excl. grants)7 | -9.7 | -4.4 | -4.6 | -4.2 | -4.3 | -4.5 | -4.2 | -4.2 | -3.6 | -3.8 | -2.8 | -3.0 |
| Overall fiscal balance (incl. grants, commitments basis) | ||||||||||||
| -5.9 | -3.0 | 1.1 | -1.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | -0.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | |
| CEMAC reference fiscal | ||||||||||||
| balance (in percent of GDP)8 | -0.2 | -0.8 | -1.3 | -0.7 | -0.4 | |||||||
| Total debt (in percent of GDP)6 | 43.3 | 51.2 | 50.5 | 52.5 | 47.7 | 48.1 | 44.8 | 45.4 | 41.1 | 41.7 | 38.2 | 38.6 |
| Of which: domestic debt | 24.0 | 21.9 | 25.4 | 19.9 | 22.1 | 18.5 | 20.0 | 16.9 | 18.8 | 16.1 | 17.9 | |
| 18.3 | ||||||||||||
| Memorandum items: | ||||||||||||
| Nominal GDP (billions of CFA francs) | 6,474 | 5,984 | 6,023 | 5,747 | 6,271 | 6,077 | 6,618 | 6,403 | 7,094 | 7,041 | 7,569 | 7,602 |
| Of which: non-oil GDP | 5,184 | 4,838 | 4,843 | 4,829 | 5,006 | 5,005 | 5,257 | 5,264 | 5,616 | 5,604 | 6,021 | 5,996 |
Program numbers reflect a no-restructuing scenario.
Projections reflect the agreement in principal to restructure the Glencore debt.
WEO simple average of crude oil price.
Chadian oil price is Brent price minus quality discount.
Changes as a percent of broad money stock at the beginning of period.
Central government, including government-guaranteed debt.
Chad: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2015-2021
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | ||||||
| Prel. | Prel. | Prog.1 | Proj.2 | Prog.1 | Proj.2 | Prog.1 | Proj.2 | Prog.1 | Proj.2 | Prog.1 | Proj.2 | |
| (Annual percentage change, unless otherwise indicated) | ||||||||||||
| Real economy | ||||||||||||
| GDP at constant prices | 1.8 | -6.4 | 0.6 | -3.1 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 4.8 |
| Oil GDP | 32.1 | -8.4 | 3.0 | -16.2 | 6.1 | 15.7 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 22.6 | 1.7 | 8.4 |
| Non-oil GDP | -2.9 | -6.0 | 0.1 | -0.5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| GDP deflator | -8.0 | -1.2 | 0.1 | -0.9 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Consumer price index (annual average) | ||||||||||||
| 6.8 | -1.1 | 0.2 | -0.9 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | |
| Oil prices | ||||||||||||
| WEO (US$/barrel)3 | 50.8 | 42.8 | 55.2 | 52.8 | 55.1 | 62.3 | 54.1 | 58.2 | 54.0 | 55.6 | 54.4 | 54.1 |
| Chadian price | ||||||||||||
| (US$/barrel)4 | 39.9 | 36.2 | 50.4 | 49.4 | 49.9 | 60.7 | 49.0 | 56.7 | 48.9 | 54.0 | 49.5 | 52.6 |
| Oil production for exportation (millions of barrels) | 47.5 | 44.4 | 46.0 | 35.9 | 49.0 | 39.1 | 52.0 | 41.1 | 55.0 | 52.1 | 56.0 | 57.1 |
| Exchange rate CFAF per | ||||||||||||
| US$ (period average) | 591.2 | 592.7 | ||||||||||
| Money and credit | ||||||||||||
| Net foreign assets | -40.3 | -38.2 | 8.9 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 9.8 | |
| Net domestic assets | 35.6 | 30.5 | -3.2 | -1.4 | 5.5 | -0.9 | 1.6 | 2.6 | -0.6 | -2.2 | -2.8 | |
| Of which: net | ||||||||||||
| claims on central | ||||||||||||
| government | 32.2 | 26.5 | -3.9 | -4.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | -0.1 | 0.4 | -1.5 | -4.5 | -4.6 | |
| Of which: credit to | ||||||||||||
| private sector | 1.1 | -2.7 | 0.7 | -1.7 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 1.8 | |
| Broad money | -4.7 | -7.7 | 5.8 | -0.9 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 7.1 | 7.0 | |
| Velocity (non-oil GDP/broad money)5 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 4.8 | |
| External sector (valued in US dollar) | ||||||||||||
| Exports of goods and services, f.o.b. | -34.0 | -15.4 | 29.4 | 10.5 | 5.7 | 26.5 | 4.6 | 0.9 | 5.7 | 16.0 | 4.0 | 6.5 |
| Imports of goods and services, f.o.b. | -23.7 | -15.3 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 20.7 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 9.8 | 3.1 | 4.9 |
| Export volume | 29.2 | -3.9 | 1.0 | -15.0 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 20.3 | 1.9 | 7.9 |
| Import volume | -21.8 | -10.4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 18.7 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 8.3 | 1.4 | 3.1 |
| Overall balance of payments (percent of GDP) | ||||||||||||
| -6.4 | -8.6 | -0.5 | -0.8 | -2.0 | 1.5 | -1.2 | 0.5 | -0.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 1.1 | |
| Current account | ||||||||||||
| balance, including official | ||||||||||||
| transfers (percent of GDP) | -12.3 | -9.2 | -2.2 | -5.2 | -3.2 | -4.3 | -3.5 | -5.5 | -3.3 | -4.9 | -3.5 | -4.9 |
| Terms of trade | -47.7 | -6.9 | 24.7 | 28.3 | -1.8 | 16.0 | -2.6 | -5.4 | -0.8 | -4.9 | 0.4 | -3.0 |
| External debt (percent of GDP)6 | 25.0 | 27.1 | 28.6 | 27.2 | 27.8 | 26.0 | 26.3 | 25.4 | 24.2 | 23.0 | 22.1 | 20.7 |
| NPV of external debt | ||||||||||||
| (percent of exports of goods and services) | 98.5 | 97.2 | 73.0 | 88.7 | 69.0 | 76.4 | 65.0 | 78.4 | 60.0 | 67.4 | 55.7 | 62.0 |
| (Percent of non-oil GDP, unless otherwise indicated) | ||||||||||||
| Government finance | ||||||||||||
| Revenue and grants | 17.1 | 14.9 | 19.9 | 16.1 | 19.2 | 18.5 | 19.2 | 17.5 | 19.5 | 18.6 | 19.0 | 18.3 |
| Of which: oil revenue | 4.9 | 3.5 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 5.7 |
| Of which: non-oil | ||||||||||||
| revenue | 8.3 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 8.8 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 9.6 |
| Expenditure | 22.9 | 18.0 | 18.8 | 17.8 | 18.5 | 17.9 | 18.7 | 18.1 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 17.5 | 17.9 |
| Current | 15.6 | 14.2 | 14.0 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 12.4 | 12.7 | 12.2 | 12.1 | 12.2 | 11.3 | 11.7 |
| Capital | 7.3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 6.2 |
| Non-oil primary | ||||||||||||
| balance (commitment basis, excl. grants)7 | -9.7 | -4.4 | -4.6 | -4.2 | -4.3 | -4.5 | -4.2 | -4.2 | -3.6 | -3.8 | -2.8 | -3.0 |
| Overall fiscal balance (incl. grants, commitments basis) | ||||||||||||
| -5.9 | -3.0 | 1.1 | -1.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | -0.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | |
| CEMAC reference fiscal | ||||||||||||
| balance (in percent of GDP)8 | -0.2 | -0.8 | -1.3 | -0.7 | -0.4 | |||||||
| Total debt (in percent of GDP)6 | 43.3 | 51.2 | 50.5 | 52.5 | 47.7 | 48.1 | 44.8 | 45.4 | 41.1 | 41.7 | 38.2 | 38.6 |
| Of which: domestic debt | 24.0 | 21.9 | 25.4 | 19.9 | 22.1 | 18.5 | 20.0 | 16.9 | 18.8 | 16.1 | 17.9 | |
| 18.3 | ||||||||||||
| Memorandum items: | ||||||||||||
| Nominal GDP (billions of CFA francs) | 6,474 | 5,984 | 6,023 | 5,747 | 6,271 | 6,077 | 6,618 | 6,403 | 7,094 | 7,041 | 7,569 | 7,602 |
| Of which: non-oil GDP | 5,184 | 4,838 | 4,843 | 4,829 | 5,006 | 5,005 | 5,257 | 5,264 | 5,616 | 5,604 | 6,021 | 5,996 |
Program numbers reflect a no-restructuing scenario.
Projections reflect the agreement in principal to restructure the Glencore debt.
WEO simple average of crude oil price.
Chadian oil price is Brent price minus quality discount.
Changes as a percent of broad money stock at the beginning of period.
Central government, including government-guaranteed debt.