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Prepared by Amr Hosny and Liam O’Sullivan with inputs from Toyin Olusegun and Moses Onyema Oduh (Central Bank of Nigeria).
The output gap variable is calculated as the difference between actual nominal GDP and its long-run trend estimated using the Hodrick-Prescott filter.
The correlation between quarterly production index and GDP is 0.79 over the 2011Q1–2014Q1 period.